Sunday Night Baseball: Mets at Cardinals
By THE PREZ
ESPN loves the New York market. The Yankees opened the season on Sunday Night Baseball, and the Mets take their turn in the Sunday night slot this week and next … and next. Oh, and then it’s the Yankees again.
Hello Bobby?
The Mets aren’t very good. There is already talk that Jerry Manuel will be the first manager fired this season (he was among the favorites at most books). And the speculated replacement? None other than former Mets manager and fake mustache-wearer Bobby Valentine.
Of course Bobby V. said he was happy where he is – as an analyst for ESPN. But then he also pretty much admitted he wanted to manage again.
"Well, I think I have it in my blood," he said. "I've done it for over 3,000 games and 20-something years so, you know, it's there. But I'm trying to get into this new life of mine and, you know, it's a tough situation being pulled out of it every time someone has a 0-3 stint."
Bob Melvin has been speculated as the other leading candidate to possibly replace Manuel.
More bad Met news
Again, it’s early, but entering Saturday’s game Mets outfielder and cleanup hitter Jason Bay – the same man who signed a $66 million deal this offseason - had zero homers, just two RBIs and a .182 average with runners in scoring position to go with 14 strikeouts.
Bay is now homerless in 21 straight games since hitting his previous dinger last Sept. 21 against Kansas City’s Lenny DiNardo.
"I just can't string together a couple of [good] games," Bay said.
Manuel said he would “ride it out” with his struggling outfielder.
Closer Francisco Rodriguez had yet to even have a save chance entering Saturday. Since he became the Angels’ closer in 2005, K-Rod has never had to wait this long for a save opportunity.
Just to be a glass half-full guy, Jeff Francouer is helping to mask Bay’s troubles. He entered Saturday with a 10-game hitting streak, tied for the second-longest in Met history to start a season (David Wright set the record with 14 last year). Francoeur is among the NL hitting leaders and easily off to the best start of his career.
Tonight’s starters
Mets righty John Maine (0-1, 13.50) is scheduled to face Cards co-ace Adam Wainwright (2-0, 1.20 ERA). Maine might lose his spot in the rotation if he is lousy tonight.
Maine allowed a career-worst eight earned runs in three innings to the Rockies in his last start. He then met with Manuel, who was pondering replacing him in the rotation. Manuel told Maine to use his fastball more often or else.
Maine, who won 15 games in 2007 but has had shoulder issues that past two years, threw his third straight side session prior to Friday's game. That’s only noteworthy because pitchers generally throw only one side session between starts.
Maine allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone outing against St. Louis last season.
Wainwright enters off eight shutout innings vs. the Astros. He allowed just six hits, all singles, struck out seven and walked one. Wainwright retired the final nine batters he faced and credited his placement afterward the game.
Right-handed hitters are batting just .161 against Wainwright and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 13:3. He did not face the Mets last year.
Key trends
The Mets are 1-4 in their past five against a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in Maine’s past five road starts.
The Cards are 1-6 in their past seven home games vs. a righty and a weird 3-13 in their past 16 Game 3s of a series. But St. Louis is 8-1 in Wainwright’s last nine vs. a team with a losing record.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (8-3) at L.A. Dodgers (5-6)
Two of baseball’s biggest rivals finish their first series of the season, with the Giants’ Barry Zito (2-0, 2.25 ERA) opposing Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.50) in a battle of left-handers at Dodger Stadium.
San Francisco dropped Friday’s series opener 10-8 but rebounded Saturday with a 9-0 victory, behind another stellar pitching performance from ace Tim Lincecum, who allowed four hits in six shutout innings. The Giants have won 14 of 18 overall and five of six on the road. Additionally, Bruce Bochy’s club is on runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 4-1 on Sunday and 5-0 in the third game of a series.
Going back to last year’s National League Championship Series loss to the Phillies, the Dodgers have dropped nine of 14 overall, but nine of those games were on the road. They remain on positive runs of 8-3 at home and 5-2 against division rivals, but they’re 2-5 in their last seven on Sunday and 1-4 in their last five against left-handed starters.
The Dodgers are now 12-8 against San Francisco since the start of the 2009 season, winning seven of the last 11 battles in Hollywood.
Zito has been sharp in his first two outings of 2010, pitching six innings each against both the Astros (road) and Pirates (home) while allowing a combined four runs and eight hits. He beat Houston 3-0 and knocked off Pittsburgh 9-3. With Zito pitching, San Francisco has won five of six games overall, four straight on the road and four of five against division rivals.
Zito is 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against Los Angeles, including 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA in six games at Dodger Stadium. He faced the Dodgers three times last year, going 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA, with one solid start in L.A. (one run allowed in six innings) and one ugly one (six runs allowed in five innings).
Kershaw has struggled with his control so far this season, walking 11 in just 10 innings of work. He got a no-decision in his debut at Pittsburgh, a game the Dodgers lost 4-3, then came back Tuesday and held the DBacks to two runs on three hits while whiffing seven in 5 1/3 innings en route to a 9-5 victory. Los Angeles has still lost 11 of Kershaw’s last 15 starts overall, but they’re 4-1 in his last five Sunday outings.
Kershaw is just 7-6 despite a stellar 2.51 ERA in 28 career starts at home. One of those was his only career start against San Francisco, which came 368 days ago. In that contest, the then-21-year-old held the Giants to one hit (a solo home run) and one walk while striking out 13 in seven innings, but he failed to get a decision in a game the Dodgers won 5-4.
San Francisco is on “over” tears of 7-1-1 overall, 14-5-1 against division rivals, 3-1-2 when Zito starts, 5-2-1 when he faces N.L. West rivals and 7-2 when he starts on Sunday. Likewise, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 24-8-2 overall, 11-3-1 at home (5-0 this season), 12-3-1 versus N.L. West foes (6-0 last six) and 5-0 versus left-handed starters. However, with Kershaw hurling, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall and 4-1 against the N.L. West.
Finally, the last eight Giants-Dodgers battles – and the last six clashes in Los Angeles – have hurdled the posted total. However, the under is 4-0-3 in Zito’s last seven starts against L.A. and 2-0-2 in his last four at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (8-3) at Boston (4-7)
Matt Garza (2-0, 1.12 ERA) shoots for his third victory in as many tries this season when he takes the mound against struggling Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (0-1, 7.20) in the third game of a four-game series at Fenway Park.
Tampa Bay got a 12th-inning home run from Pat Burrell to steal a 3-1, 12-inning victory over the Red Sox on Saturday in the completion of a game that was suspended on Friday with the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the ninth. Then in Saturday’s regular-scheduled contest, the Rays jumped out to leads of 4-0 and 6-1 and held on for a 6-5 victory.
The Rays have now won four straight overall and six in a row on the highway since last year, and they sport additional positive runs of 14-5 overall and 17-5 against the A.L. East, but they’ve lost seven of nine on Sunday. Boston has now dropped three straight and it is 1-10 in its last 11 against A.L. East foes. On the positive end, the Red Sox are on runs of 56-28 at home, 39-17 at home against right-handed starters and 8-2 on Sunday.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston had won the last four in a row prior to Saturday. Also, despite yesterday’s results, the Rays have still lost 53 of their last 71 games at Fenway Park.
Garza was dominant in his first two starts, both against the Orioles, pitching eight innings in each contest while giving up a total of three runs (two earned) on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts against just five walks. Going back to last September, the right-hander has held six of his last seven opponents to three earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings. In those six particular outings, he has 1.65 ERA.
The Rays have lost nine of Garza’s last 12 starts on Sunday, and they’re 1-5 in his last six on the road, where last year he went 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in 15 starts. On the bright side, Tampa is 8-2 in Garza’s last 10 games against Boston (playoffs included), and he’s 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 career starts against the Red Sox, including 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven outings (playoffs included) at Fenway Park. Last year, Garza faced the Red Sox six times, going 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA (1-1, 2.95 ERA in three games in Boston).
Lester has been far from sharp to start the season, giving up four runs in five innings in each of two starts against the Yankees (6-4 home loss) and Twins (5-2 road loss). He’s now just 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA prior to May in his career, though he continues to sport incredible lifetime numbers at Fenway Park (23-5, 3.23 ERA in 45 regular-season starts).
Behind Lester, the Red Sox are still on impressive hot streaks of 57-28 overall, 26-5 when he pitches at Fenway Park and 12-4 on Sunday. However, they’ve lost five of Lester’s last seven starts against Tampa Bay. Last year, Lester went 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in five games against the Rays, and for his career he’s 6-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 starts versus Tampa (playoffs included).
The Rays are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall (all versus the A.L. East) and 6-2 on the road, but they’ve stayed low in 15 of 21 on Sunday. And with Garza starting, the under is on runs of 44-19-3 overall, 20-5-1 on the road, 11-1 on Sunday, 24-9-1 against A.L. East rivals and 5-2 when he faces Boston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have topped the total in five of seven at home, six of eight against the A.L. East and four straight on Sunday, but the under is 7-3-1 in Lester’s last 11 home outings and 4-0 in Lester’s last four on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
MLB Combo RoundUp For 4/18
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-140) @ Pirates with a total of 7.5
Brandon Phillips is batting .412 off Maholm since 2005 with 4 HR and 9 RBI;
Scott Rolen is 4-for-12 off Maholm;
Ryan Church is 4-for-10 off Arroyo with 4 RBI;
Lastings Milledge is 2-for-6 with a HR off Bronson.
Surprisingly even, statistically speaking. Arroyo has started the year fairly well, and Maholm hasn't, really. I'm surprised to see the Reds as a -140 road favorite. They're not exactly a dominant team, and they blew a win last night in the 9th inning. Pittsburgh is going to surprise a few people at home this year, and there might be some value with the Pirates in a game that could be decided late. Fairly even bullpens, fairly even starters, got to look at the home dog.
Rockies @ Braves (-150) with a total of 8.5
Dexter Fowler is 3-for-4 off Jurrjens;
Todd Helton is 5-for-11 off Jurrjens;
Troy Tulowitzki is 4-for-11 with a HR off Jurrjens.
No real data on the Braves' side against Greg Smith, who has pitched relatively well in his first 2 starts for the Rockies, but how do you follow-up a No-no? This line is strikingly low considering the pitching matchup, and you simply have to take a peek at Atlanta, undervalued because of getting no-hit, and undervalued because Jurrjens got creamed in his last start.
Marlins @ Phillies (-205) with a total of 10
Chris Coghlan is 6-for-9 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Hamels;
Ronny Paulino is 3-for-8 off Hamels;
Cody Ross has 4 HR and 6 RBI against Hamels, and is batting .296;
Ross Gload (hah, I know) is 4-for-8 off Robertson.
Considering this one is up over 200 on the Phils side, that offense has apparently left its mark on the oddsmakers. The Marlins shut down the Phils last night, and they should probably be happy with that. Nate Robertson doesn't have the stuff to keep the Phils quiet, but his job is going to be to get through 5-6 innings and only give up 4 runs, or so. Hamels is 2-6 in his career against the Fish, so there's no chance we touch the Phils, here. It's Fish, Fish on the RL, or my personal favorite, nada.
Brewers (-130) @ Nationals with a total of 10
Ryan Braun is batting .429 against Jason Marquis;
Corey Hart is 7-for-17 off Marquis with a HR and 3 RBI.
This pains me, but Doug Davis has actually shut down just about everyone on the Nats current roster. At 0-1, 12.27 ERA on the season, there is no pitcher I'd rather avoid than Doug Davis, but all the numbers point to the Brewers grabbing a win against one of the other few starters in the Bigs with an ERA over 12. Tiny lean to the road favorites, who got shut out 8-0 by Livan Hernandez last night.
Astros @ Cubs (-170) with a total of N/A
Michael Bourn is 6-for-15 off Dempster;
Jeff Keppinger is 9-for-18 off Dempster;
Carlos Lee is 8-for-24 with a HR and 5 RBI against Dempster since 2005;
Hunter Pence is batting .348 against Dempster with 2 HR and 5 RBI;
Derrek Lee is batting .483 with 3 HR and 9 RBI off Wandy since 2005;
Ryan Theriot is 10-for-24 with a HR off Wandy.
A lot of offensive numbers against two pretty solid pitchers. I'm nervous about Wandy's poor start to 2010, as he's 0-2, with a 6.10 ERA, but as this huge of an underdog, and with his 'Stros quietly starting to win every few days, could Houston get another? This might be too big of a longshot, but if Wandy can avoid serving up a meatball to Derrek Lee, it seems like Houston has 4 guys (see above) that can get on base against Dempster, and maybe scratch 2-3 runs across.
Diamondbacks @ Padres (-130) with a total of 8
Adam Laroche is 1-for-2 with a HR off LeBlanc;
Chris Young is 2-for-5 off LeBlanc.
This is one of those games where it's just tough to know which team steps up against the pitcher they rarely see, or basically never see. I still don't trust LeBlanc, as I saw the kid's outstanding changeup in the Minors, and it hasn't truly translated to Big League success. Ian Kennedy is another project. This game is best avoided, in my opinion.
Giants @ Dodgers (-150) with a total of 8
Ronnie Belliard is 9-for-21 off Zito with 1 HR and 6 RBI;
Jamey Carroll is 8-for-21 off Zito;
Rafael Furcal is 8-for-22 with 1 HR and 2 RBI;
Matt Kemp is 15-for-32 off Zito with 3 RBI.
Considering Barry Zito is a perfect 2-0 with an ERA of 2.25 this year, to be a large underdog was a little surprising, but hey, we're dealing with Clayton Kershaw on the other side. This line is pretty fair, I believe, as the Dodgers are going to come out swinging off the dominant show by Tim Lincecum yesterday. I happen to think this is going to be a pretty good game, and I lean Dodgers, but they might just be too expensive.
Mets @ Cardinals (-265) with a total of 8
Jason Bay is 6-for-17 off Wainwright;
Jeff Francoeur is 3-for-8 off Wainwright;
Mike Jacbs is 3-for-10 with a HR;
Matt Holliday is 4-for-7 off Maine;
Yadier Molina is 3-for-9;
Albert Pujols is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 11 RBI off Maine.
This one is a bit of a wash off the 20-inning affair last night. I think most folks are trying to decipher if this game is going over because of pitcher fatigue, or staying under because of all-around fatigue. My take is that the position players aren't really going to take the game seriously until the middle innings, and the best bet might be Mets +0.5 in the first 5 innings. That way, if things just roll along tied at 0 or 1, we don't have to worry about the late frames. I'm not playing it, though.
American League
White Sox @ Indians (-115) with a total of 7.5
Paul Konerko and Mark Kotsay are each 3-for-7 lifetime off Carmona, Konerko with a HR;
A.J. Pierzynski is 6-for-16 off Carmona;
Mark Teahen is 10-for-27 off Fausto;
Asdrubal Cabrera is 2-for-5 off Floyd, and Shin-Soo Choo is 4-for-10 with 4 RBI;
Jhonny Peralta is 7-for-17 off Floyd with 2 HR and 6 RBI.
I feel like the Indians are due to have a poorly pitched game, but that's a terrible and silly reason to make a play on the White Sox. We saw how Carmona's sinker was moving in his last day start, and I just don't know if it's worth it, especially with this game so close to a pick. Pass.
Rangers @ Yankees (-175) with a total of 9.5
Vlad Guerrero is 6-for-17 off Pettitte;
Josh Hamilton is 3-for-6 with a HR;
David Murphy is 4-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Pettitte;
Curtis Granderson is 3-for-9 with a HR off Harden;
Derek Jeter is 4-for-9, and Alex Rodriguez is 5-for-11 with a hR.
Seems like there's some mild offensive success on both sides, but the Rangers just haven't impressed me thus far this season, and this is a true longshot. Harden won't go deep with his high pitch counts and the Yankees' patience at the dish, and Pettitte has started the year like it's the Playoffs. Pass.
Angels @ Blue Jays (-150) with a total of 9
In extremely limited exposure, Kendry Morales is 2-for-2 off Romero;
Vernon Wells is 5-for-14 off Santana;
Adam Lind is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Ervin Santana.
Another game with surprisingly limited exposure, even for the veteran pitcher among the two. Romero has gotten off to a lightning quick start in 2010, but -150 was too high a price. I'm not confident enough in Ervin to get the job done, but there is value on the Angels side. Just sayin'.
Rays @ Red Sox (-140) with a total of 8.5
Jason Bartlett is batting .391 off Lester, but no real production numbers;
Evan Longoria is 6-for-20 with a HR and 4 RBI;
Jacoby Ellsbury is batting .313 off Garza;
Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre are each batting .300 off Garza.
With such prolific lineups, you'd think that there may be some offensive fireworks, but I'm not so sure. It's tough to back an "under" in Fenway - I mean, really tough - but this one has some potential. Lester is 6-2 in his career against the Rays, Garza is 5-2 in his career against the Sox, so two pitchers with strong track records going head-to-head should make for some entertaining baseball. Going to be tough to sweep the Sox, though, so be careful.
Royals @ Twins (-200) with a total of 9.5
Billy Butler is 9-for-21 off Pavano with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Alberto Callaspo is 8-for-18 off Pavano with 1 HR and 5 RBI;
David DeJesus is 7-for-18 off Pavano;
Jose Guillen is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Yuny Betancourt and Jason Kendall are both batting .333 off Carl;
Jason Kubel is 4-for-10 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Hochevar;
Joe Mauer is 3-for-9, Orlando Hudson is 3-for-4, and Alexi Casilla is 2-for-4 off Hochevar.
Equally frightening numbers for both pitchers, here. I do happen to think that Pavano is getting slightly too much credit at -200 odds, and this number is likely coming down. Does that mean the Royals win the game? Absolutely not, but if they win 45% of the time, and you buy Kansas City at +180, that's a value. Something to think about, if Hochevar can continue to pitch well to start 2010.
Orioles @ Athletics (-175) with a total of 7.5
There are really no historical results to go off, here. Bottom line, the A's are too pricey to back, and the O's couldn't beat a AA team right now. Pass.
Tigers (-130) @ Mariners with a total of 8.5
Miguel Cabrera is 4-for-11 off Snell with a HR and 4 RBI;
Carlos Guillen is 2-for-5 with 2 HR and 3 RBI;
Magglio Ordonez is 4-for-7 off Snell.
Seattle hasn't seen much of Scherzer, and that first (and maybe second) time through the order, Max should have an edge over the Mariners. The question is, can he go deep in the game, and can the Tigers get runners home when they have the chance. Detroit was awful on the road last year, and they're not looking strong away from home again this season. I think this one is too close to call.