Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Mets
By MARC LAWRENCE
The Mets and Braves conclude their three-game series at Citi Field Stadium in New York under the Sunday night ESPN lights. Let’s take a look at how these clubs match up.
Hey fever
Braves manager Bobby Cox insists the team's chemistry is really good and cited rookie RF Jason Heyward as the main reason.
With four home runs and 16 RBIs through the first 16 games, the likeable Heyward has sparked Atlanta’s sluggish offense during the opening month of the campaign.
“J-Hey is a young kid, 20 years old, full of energy and talent," Cox said. "It really is energizing to have somebody like that for the veterans, to have someone come along and help immediately."
Down and out
As pleasant a surprise as Heyward has been for the Braves, rest of the lineup continues to struggle.
Through the first 15 games of the season, Atlanta's lead-off hitters were batting a combined .130. Center fielder Nate McLouth (2-for-26, .071) outfielder Melky Cabrera (1-for-15, .063 and LF Matt Diaz (3-for-23, .089) have been the main culprits.
Making matters worse, newly acquired 3B Troy Glaus, who is trying to prove that shoulder surgery in January of 2009 didn't sap his power, has failed to hit his weight.
"The fans have a right to boo," Glaus said. "All I can do is keep doing my work. Everybody in here has been booed at some point. Everybody has ups and downs."
Five Atlanta hitters took batting averages under .200 into this weekend series.
"Yeah, it's worrisome," said third baseman Chipper Jones. "We've got certain guys that are swinging the bat well and others are just really struggling right now. We've got to stand by them and try to help them through this period.
"They're' not going to hit under .200 for the whole season. They've just got to get some confidence."
Not so Chipper
And speaking of Jones, the future Hall of Famer is beginning to show signs that the finish line is quickly approaching.
Jones is the only switch hitter in the history of the game with a career average above .300 and over 300 career home runs. With numbers like those he is certainly one of the top switch hitters of all time, joining a group that includes the likes of Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, and Pete Rose.
A natural righty, his recent struggles from the left side make him a liability in the Braves lineup.
Nonetheless, with one of the sweetest swings in baseball from the left side, he still makes opposing pitchers and managers uneasy.
Met makeover
Each of the Mets starters had an ERA above 6.00 in spring training. As expected, they have settled in with only John Maine continuing to struggle. Word is Maine is headed to the DL with an injury to his non-throwing arm.
Like Atlanta, it’s the New York offense that’s become a concern. With star CF Carlos Beltran still sidelined from arthroscopic right knee surgery in January, no regular in the lineup is hitting .300.
A revamped lineup produced results in the series opener on Friday when SS Jose Reyes batted third for the Mets and delivered a double and then a triple to start a two-run rally in the sixth inning.
Reyes had not batted out of the leadoff spot to start a game since July 2, 2005.
Arms race
The Mets send Mike Pelfrey (3-0, 0.86) up against Tommy Hanson (1-1, 2.89) in a battle of big, promising right-handers this evening. (Pelfrey is 6-foot-7 and Hanson is 6-6).
Pelfrey followed up a rare save in last Saturday's 20-inning victory over St. Louis with seven scoreless innings Tuesday night, leading the Mets to a 4-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. He allowed three hits, walked three and struck out six.
Behind Pelfrey, the Mets are 3-6 against the Braves and 8-5 during the month of April. Pelfrey has cashed in each of his last four April starts with a 1.41 ERA.
Hanson worked 4 and 2/3 innings in a 4-3 no-decision home win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He allowed six hits and two earned runs while walking one before leaving the game after 102 pitches.
Despite going 2-3 in his last five road team starts, Hanson has allowed one or less earned runs in four of those efforts. In his only career start against the Mets, Hanson blanked New York in seven innings of work in a 6-0 victory last year.
Strange stat of the week
The Mets proudly boast they have the best opening day record of any team in the majors.
What they don't tell you is they have one of the worst records in big-league history on all those other days of the year.
On opening day: a .646 winning percentage. On all other days: a .478 winning percentage.
N.Y. Yankees (12-5) at L.A. Angels (9-10)
Javier Vazquez (1-2, 8.27 ERA) looks to build on his best start of the season when he takes the ball for the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Angels and Scott Kazmir (1-1, 7.45).
Los Angeles got a two-run homer from Kendry Morales in the eighth inning Friday to break a 4-4 tie and win 6-4, then came back Saturday and got mowed down by Andy Pettitte in a 7-1 defeat. The Angels have still won six of nine overall and they’re on additional surges of 4-1 against the A.L. East, 37-16 on Sunday and 47-19 in the third game of the season.
New York remains on positive runs of 64-26 overall (playoffs included), 42-18 against left-handed starters, 19-9 on the road versus southpaws, 7-2 against the A.L. West, 74-33 in the third game of a series and 49-22 on Sunday.
Going back to last season (including the playoffs), the Yankees have won eight of 12 against Los Angeles, but they’re still just 8-20 in their last 28 games at Angel Stadium.
Vazquez, who made 32 starts for the Yankees back in 2004 and re-signed with the club in the offseason, got off to a rough start to 2010, allowing 12 runs in his first two starts covering 11 innings, and losing both contests (including a 5-3 home setback to the Angels). However, he was much sharper in Oakland on Tuesday, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-3 victory. Still, the veteran right-hander has surrendered 11 runs in 11 innings in two road games so far.
Including the 5-3 home loss on April 14, Vazquez is now 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in five career starts against the Angels, including 0-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two games in Anaheim (two earned runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings). Going back to 2004, Los Angeles is 3-1 the last four times it has faced Vazquez.
One day after Vazquez struggled against the Angels at home, Kazmir got rocked in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees, yielding all six runs (including three homers) in just four innings. However, he bounced back Tuesday and led the Angels to a 6-5 home win over Detroit, going six innings and allowing two runs on six hits with no walks and seven strikeouts.
Since being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles last September, Kazmir has made five starts at Angel Stadium and gone 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA. However, both losses came against the Yankees (one in the regular season, one in the playoffs). In fact, Kazmir is 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA in three starts against New York since Sept. 23. Prior to that, he had gone 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in his first 13 appearances (12 starts) against the Bronx Bombers (all with Tampa Bay).
The Yankees are on “over” runs of 12-4-1 on the road, 7-1 against lefty starters, 5-1 behind Vazquez (dating to his last stint with the organization) and 4-0 with Vazquez working on the road. Meanwhile, L.A. has topped the total in four of five against right-handed starters, but otherwise is on “under” stretches of 38-18-3 overall, 4-1-1 in the third game of a series and 7-3 with Kazmir on the hill.
Finally, the over is 17-6-1 in the last 24 Anaheim Stadium clashes between these rivals (1-1 this weekend).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
MLB RoundUp For 4/25
By Dan Bebe
National League
Padres (-120) @ Reds with a total of 9
Everth Cabrera is 1-for-3 with a HR off Bailey;
Adrian Gonzalez is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bailey;
Scott Hairston is 2-for-4 with a HR off Bailey;
Jonny Gones is 1-for-2 with a HR and 2 RBI off Richard.
The Padres have won 8 in a row. Ride the wave if you want, I won't stop you.
Dodgers (-155) @ Nationals with a total of 9.5
Ronnie Belliard is 8-for-22 off Olsen with 2 HR and 5 RBI;
Rafael Furcal is 3-for-8 off Olsen;
Matt Kemp is 3-for-4 with 2 RBI off Olsen;
Russ Martin is 3-for-3 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Olsen.
If this was any year but 2010, I'd advocate a play on Billingsley, but he's lost. A 7.07 ERA thus far this year, and despite his dominance of the Nationals, there is just no way I lay that price on a guy struggling like Chad. Scott Olsen will give up some runs, too, so someone will probably win this with an offensive outburst from the 6th inning on.
Pirates @ Astros (-185) with a total of 9.5
Lastings Milledge is 5-for-14 off Brett Myers;
Lance Berkman is 4-for-5 with a HR and 4 RBI off Morton;
Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee are each 3-for-9 off Morton;
Kaz Matsui is 3-for-5 off Morton.
I learned my lesson in betting on Charlie Morton last time out. This kid is all over the place, now 0-3 on the year with a 16.55 ERA! Brett Myers is a 2.64 ERA pitcher against Pittsburgh in his career. The large ML means I won't take Astros, and Charlie Morton means I won't take Pirates. Pass.
Cubs @ Brewers (-125) with a total of 8.5
Kosuke Fukudome is 8-for-17 with a HR and 3 RBI off Bush;
Aramis Ramirez is 9-for-30 with 3 HR and 11 RBI off Bush since '05;
Alfonso Soriano is batting .308 off Bush since '05 with a HR and 4 RBI;
Ryan Braun is 4-for-9 off Wells;
Jody Gerut is 3-for-5 with a HR and 4 RBI.
The Brewers have been run over in each of the first two games of this series, and now suddenly Dave Bush is a -125 favorite? Something doesn't quite add up, especially since he's a 2-8 lifetime pitcher against the Cubs, and Randy Wells is looking solid so far this year. Fishy line, for sure. I'm giving this one a twice over.
Cardinals @ Giants (-125) with a total of 7.5
Albert Pujols is 5-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Cain since '05;
Mark DeRosa is 5-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Penny since '05;
Bengie Molina is 9-for-20 with 2 RBI off Penny since '05;
Edgar Renteria is 6-for-10 with 2 RBI off Penny since '05.
The Giants remain a very, very strong home team, but Cain is actually just 1-1 with a 4.94 ERA against St. Louis in his career. Somewhat interesting considering Pujols is really the only Cardinal with any success against him. The resurgent Brad Penny is 2-0 this season with a 1.29 ERA, and that big lug is just rolling along. This one could be decided with very few runs, so thanks, but no thanks. Pass.
Phillies (-120) @ D'backs with a total of 11
Juan Castro is 3-for-8 off Lopez;
Ryan Howard is 3-for-5 with a HR off Lopez;
Raul Ibanez is 7-for-17 off Lopez;
Brian Schneider is 4-for-7 off Lopez;
Kelly Johnson is 5-for-16 off Kendrick.
That total of 11 is just insane. Another slugfest in the Valley of the Sun, so how do we really decide which team has the edge? I'd argue neither really does. No edge, no particularly large ML values, means no bet. Pass.
Marlins @ Rockies (-175) with a total of 9.5
Jorge Cantu is 3-for-7 off De La Rosa with a HR and 2 RBI;
Ronny Paulino is 3-for-7 off De La Rosa;
Hanley Ramirez is 5-for-11 with 2 RBI off De La Rosa;
Dan Uggla is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off De La Rosa;
Cody Ross is 3-for-8 off the Rockies' starter;
Carlos Gonzalez is 2-for-3 off Volstad with a HR;
Troy Tulowitzki is 4-for-8 off Volstad with a HR.
Volstad, interestingly, is 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA against the Rox, and De La Rosa's weak spot appears to be the Marlins, as he's 2-4 against Florida with a 7.03 career ERA, and as you can see from the notes above, these guys hit him hard. We know he's gotten better, and he deals with Coors better now than ever before, but at this huge underdog price, I might look at the Marlins.
Braves (-120) @ Mets with a total of 7.5
Chipper Jones is 6-for-18 with a 2 HR and 3 RBI off Pelfrey;
Brian McCann is 12-for-27 with a HR and 7 RBI off Pelfrey;
Martin Prado is 4-for-9 with a HR off Pelfrey.
Tommy Hanson is a perfect 1-0 against Atlanta, not allowing a run against them. Pelfrey, despite his electric start to the season at 3-0, 0.86 ERA, has struggled with Atlanta in his career, posting a 2-5 mark and 6.09 ERA. This is the Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN, so the spotlight is going to be on, and I worry the Mets might not be able to score any runs. This one needs more analysis, but slight early lean to Atlanta.
American League
Orioles @ Red Sox (-160) with a total of 10
Luke Scott is 2-for-4 off Wakefield;
Miguel Tejada is 12-for-27 off Wakefield since '05, with a HR and 4 RBI;
Kevin Youkilis is 3-for-10 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Hernandez;
Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell are each 2-for-3 off Hernandez;
Dustin Pedroia is just 3-for-11 but all 3 hits are homers off Hernandez.
This line feels about right, considering how awful the Orioles have been, and how unpredictable Wakefield has been. Is there a reason to really lean in either direction? I suppose you could argue this is a cheap price on Boston at home against a terrible opponent, so maybe weather patterns are telling oddsmakers the knuckler isn't going to knuckle? Pass.
Blue Jays @ Rays (-230) with a total of 9
Jose Bautista is 2-for-6 with a HR off Price;
Aaron Hill was 3-for-7 with a HR off Price;
Adam Lind is 3-for-7 off Price;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 off Price.
Brandon Morrow has pitched very poorly so far this season, but is actually solid against the Rays in his career, with a 1.86 ERA against Tampa overall. Still, Price is really starting to come into his own, and the Rays are dangerous, especially at home. Too much risk on the fave, not enough reward on the dog. Pass.
Mariners @ White Sox (-160) with a total of 7.5
Milton Bradley is 3-for-8 off Danks with a HR;
Jose Lopez is 7-for-16 off Danks.
Not much data for the Sox against Vargas, though he's been alright so far this year. Can the Mariners finally close the deal against the Sox, though? Danks is just 1-4 against Seattle in his career, though you can see Jose Lopez is really the only current Mariner with "big" numbers against him. This line is probably about right.
Twins (-142) @ Royals with a total of 9.5
Alexi Casilla is 4-for-13 off Bannister;
Michael Cuddyer is 8-for-19 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Bannister before this year;
Justin Morneau was 9-for-25 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Bannister prior to this season;
Denard Span was 6-for-17 off Bannister;
Jim Thome is 8-for-24 off Bannister with 3 HR and 4 RBI;
Alberto Callaspo is 3-for-8 off Slowey;
David DeJesus is 5-for-14 with a HR and 7 RBI off Slowey;
Jose Guillen is 4-for-13 with 2 RBI off Slowey.
A lot of offensive numbers here, but Slowey, when push comes to shove, is a perfect 4-0, 3.30 ERA against the Royals, and the Twins just beat KC in extra innings last night, which bodes very poorly for the Royals pen today. No real value on the Royals, considering the Twins, though the price is a little high for road chalk.
Tigers @ Rangers (-130) with a total of 9
No one has really seen anyone else, here, in this starting pitching match-up, but what we've seen the last couple nights is that the Tigers are more comfortable hitting against the Rangers than most other teams. Rick Porcello is off to a rough start, while his counterpart, Colby Lewis, is pitching well. I'd probably leave this one alone.
Yankees (-135) @ Angels with a total of 10
Jorge Posada was 10-for-23 off Kazmir since '05 with a HR and 4 RBI;
Mark Teixeira was 7-for-11 with 3 RBI off Kazmir before their meeting a couple weeks back;
Bobby Abreu was 4-for-11 with all 4 hits HRs, and 7 RBI off Vazquez.
Neither of these two hurlers pitched well against this particular opponent the last chance they got, with Kazmir getting bopped by New York, then Vazquez by the Angels on a different day. However, Kazmir altered his delivery in his last start, and pitched pretty well against the Tigers, easily his best start of the season so far. Vazquez admits to still struggling with the mechanics on his fastball, and if that continues, the Angels could very well tag him for a few more runs. Lean to LA.
Indians @ Athletics (-115) with a total of 8.5
Gabe Gross is 4-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Masterson;
This is a strikingly low price on a home team, the A's, that hasn't been playing all that poorly, especially against the Indians, who are just starting to get a little respect. In any case, to me, this line is fishy. The A's had beat the Indians 6 straight times before yesterday's loss, and moved the A's to just 12-3 against Cleveland over their last 15 meetings. So, we have all that going against Cleveland, yet this line opens near a Pick? Indians or nothing, I would think.