Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies at Brewers
By MARC LAWRENCE
The Phillies and Brewers put the wraps on their three-game series Sunday night when Cole Hamels opposes Doug Davis in a battle of southpaws at Miller Park on ESPN. Let’s see how they matchup.
Go figure
Phils' first baseman Ryan Howard entered the series in the midst of a nine-game home run drought before finally homering Friday night. Earlier this season, Howard went 15 straight games (65 plate appearances) without a home run.
Although suffering from the prolonged power slump, Howard actually saw his batting average jump from .280 to .290 in that span.
Exxon Valdez
With All-Star shortstop Jimmy Rollins on the DL and his backup, Juan Castro, out with a strained knee, the Phillies turned to Wilson Valdez to fill the gap.
Valdez has performed admirably in the field. But entering this series, his bat is leaking oil and has more holes than the Exxon Valdez. He was hitting .152 while managing to ground into five rally-killing double plays last week alone.
Castro is listed day-to-day.
Out on a Lidge
Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge left the team Wednesday in Denver and flew back to Philadelphia to have his sore elbow checked by a team physician.
The results brought good news to the injury-riddled Phillies. The MRI showed no structural damage or loose bodies in the elbow. The tests also showed that the surgery Lidge had on his elbow in November is healing properly.
But then the Phillies promptly put their closer on the 15-day disabled lest, retroactive May 10.
Until Lidge comes off the DL, the Phillies will go to a closer-by-committee approach with the back of their bullpen.
Ryan Madson served as the team's closer in April the first time Lidge was on the DL. But Madson had surgery on his right big toe last week and isn't expected to return until July.
The Phillies may turn to veteran Jose Contreras. The righthander is 2-1 with an 0.77 ERA and a 15-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 11 2/3 innings of work this season.
"We just have to play with it and see where we're at," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We'll get by."
Arm shortage
Like the Phillies, the Brewers’ bullpen is running on fumes.
Milwaukee’s starting rotation is averaging less than six innings per start and, as a result, the bullpen is getting exhausted filling in the remaining innings.
After three rough days against Atlanta, manager Ken Macha admitted the problem extends beyond just one or two relievers.
RHP Carlos Villanueva saw his ERA soar from 0.51 to 3.26 in two relief appearances on consecutive days against the Braves. Villanueva allowed six runs in 1 2/3 innings in those outings.
"It's been a little bit of an epidemic throughout the (Braves) series,” said Macha,
"It's not just one or two guys. It's everybody out there."
Where’s the beef?
Brewers' first baseman Prince Fielder, who ranked second in the NL with a .602 slugging percentage in 2009, has not been able to find his power stroke this season.
Entering this series, Fielder had only nine extra-base hits (five doubles, four homers) in 130 at-bats and has a .385 slugging percentage.
The good news is Ryan Braun returned to the Milwaukee lineup Friday night. He missed the last two games of the Atlanta series after being hit on the left elbow on a pitch from Tommy Hanson.
Armed to the max
Philadelphia lefthander Hamels enters tonight game at 3-2 with a 4.53 ERA. In his last three starts he has mowed down 23 hitters in 19 innings of work.
Hamels is 3-4 in his seven career team starts in this series, including 0-3 as a visitor with a 5.75 ERA.
Milwaukee southpaw Davis has struggled since coming over from Arizona this season. He walked six and surrendered a grand slam on Monday against the Brewers. The lefty went 5 2/3 innings, allowing six runs on three hits while striking out four. Davis took the loss, dropping to 1-4 with a 7.56 ERA.
Davis is 4-4 in his career team starts against the Phillies, including 3-1 at home with a 2.71 ERA.
Chew on this
After Friday’s 9-5 setback, Milwaukee fell to 4-12 at home, its worst start ever at Miller Park.
Sunday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Sunday baseball card features several solid pitching matchups, while the home teams look to continue their success on this day. Following a 17-14 start the first three Sundays of the season, home squads are an impressive 35-10 the last three Sundays. The home underdogs have cashed at a strong rate with a 13-4 ledger in this span. We'll take a look at four of the key matchups on the card starting with a rematch of last season's ALDS in the Bronx.
Twins at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST
Minnesota looks to break through at New York following 12 consecutive losses to the Yankees dating back to last season. The Twins have dropped 12 in a row at Yankee Stadium after Saturday's 7-1 defeat, as Minnesota sends out Nick Blackburn to stop the bleeding.
Blackburn (3-1, 4.76 ERA) has been helped by solid run support with the Twins averaging 5.67 runs/game in his six starts (Minnesota is 5-1). The Twins are 6-13 the last 19 starts in which Blackburn was listed as a road underdog and 7-14 the previous 21 overall on the highway. Blackburn is winless at Yankee Stadium, while the Twins are 1-4 in his five career starts against the defending champions.
Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86 ERA) makes his second start of the season after dropping his first outing at Detroit last Monday. Mitre allowed four runs (three earned) and five hits in just 4.1 innings of a 5-4 setback to the Tigers. The ex-Cubs and Marlins righty is making his 11th start in a Yankees uniform, but only one of those outings was a quality start, that coming in a 10-0 thrashing of the White Sox last August.
Minnesota has not been swept in a series this season, as Ron Gardenhire's club was last swept on the road a year ago coincidentally against the Yankees in the Bronx. The Bombers are 2-2 this season when going for a sweep, but both victories did come at home against the Rangers and Orioles.
Cardinals at Reds - 1:10 PM EST
Few people are surprised that St. Louis sits atop the NL Central. But the team that is right on the Redbirds' heels in the division may shock some as Cincinnati looks to stay at arms' length with a Sunday victory.
Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36 ERA) continues to be one of the more erratic pitchers in baseball, compiling only three quality starts in seven outings this season. Arroyo is fresh off a solid performance in a road victory over the Pirates, scattering five hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 2-1 win. The righty did not receive a decision the last time he faced the Cardinals, but Arroyo was strong by allowing four hits and one run in eight innings on April 8. The Reds won the game, 2-1, thanks to a walk-off homer by Jonny Gomes.
The opposing starting pitcher in that game takes the mound on Sunday for the Cardinals as Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) goes for St. Louis. The veteran has been a tremendous pickup for the Cards, delivering quality outings in each of his seven starts. St. Louis has dropped each of Penny's last three starts including twice as a favorite of at least $2.00 against Houston and Cincinnati. Penny has been on the wrong side of a pair of one-run defeats to the Reds this season, including a 3-2 setback at Busch Stadium on April 30.
The Reds are 4-8 the last 12 games when Arroyo starts as a home underdog, while Cincinnati is 2-6 in Arroyo's previous eight home outings during the day. The Cardinals have finished 'under' the total in nine of their last 11 road games.
Diamondbacks at Braves - 1:35 PM EST
Atlanta is finally turning the corner following a nine-game skid by winning nine of 13 as the Braves wrap up their series with the scuffling D-Backs. Both teams send out their veteran aces for the finale as the Braves look to keep their hot bats alive against Dan Haren.
The D-Backs have dropped seven straight going into Saturday's matchup at Turner Field, topped off by a 6-5 walk-off loss to the Braves on Friday. Haren (4-2, 4.23 ERA) has delivered four quality starts on the road this season, but the righty tries to bounce back after getting knocked around by the Dodgers his last time out. The ace allowed ten hits and four earned runs in 6.1 innings, despite Haren striking out ten batters in a 13-3 loss. Haren beat the Braves last season at home by going eight innings and giving up just two earned runs.
Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.64 ERA) has been solid all season, coming off a dominating performance at Milwaukee in his last start. Hudson delivered his fifth straight quality outing by allowing six hits and one earned run in six innings of an 11-3 drubbing of the Brewers. The veteran hasn't faced Arizona since 2007, but he hasn't given up a run in each of his last two starts against the D-Backs in road victories in '06 and '07.
Arizona has been one of the top 'over' teams all seasons, but the D-Backs are 6-4 to the 'under' in the last ten games. Eight times in this stretch Arizona has scored three runs or less. Atlanta, meanwhile, is riding a four-game 'over' streak, while averaging 8.5 runs/game in this span.
Mariners at Rays - 1:40 PM EST
Seattle looked awful when it got swept at home by Tampa Bay at the start of May. The Mariners picked up revenge with a Friday night victory over the Rays as $1.70 road underdogs by edging Tampa Bay, 4-3. Runs will be at a premium with two of the American League's best pitchers taking the mound in Cliff Lee and Matt Garza.
Lee (1-1, 2.01 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season, as the lefty is fresh off his first win as a Mariner by shutting down the Orioles. The Rays got to Lee back on May 5 by scoring five runs in eight innings against the former Cy Young Award winner in an 8-3 win. Lee is 3-1 the last four starts at Tropicana Field, all as a member of the Indians, including a 5-2 win as a road underdog on August 4, 2008.
Garza (5-1, 2.49 ERA) is coming off a no-decision in his last start against the Angels, even though his offense bailed him out by tying the game in the ninth inning. Tampa Bay eventually lost in extra innings, but the Rays' righty allowed four earned runs and two homers in 7.2 innings. Earlier on that road trip, Garza silenced Lee and the Mariners by going eight strong innings in the five-run triumph. Tampa Bay is 7-2 the last nine home games started by Garza dating back to last season, including a 2-1 mark this season.
The Rays are 8-2 the last ten games against left-handed starters despite hitting just .231 versus southpaws. The Mariners are amazingly 1-8 the last nine games at Safeco Field, but 4-2 the previous six contests on the highway.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-16) at Cincinnati (20-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central square off for the rubber match of a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as the Cardinals’ Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) tries to snap a personal three-game losing skid when he matches up against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36)
After dropping a 4-3 decision on Friday, Cincinnati bounced back to score a 4-3 win Saturday, gunning down the final out at home plate. The Cardinals remain just 3-8 in their last 11 games (3-5 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-5 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-10 against winning teams and 1-6 versus right-handed starters, but St. Louis has won four straight on Sunday and six of eight in the third game of a series.
Cincinnati was on a five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – before Friday’s 4-3 loss. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on a 6-3 run at home but they are just 2-3 at home against the Cardinals this season.
This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the eight contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-3 roll against Cincinnati.
Penny has lost three straight games despite a 2.84 ERA, including Tuesday when he gave up four runs (none earned) over seven innings in a 6-3 loss to the Astros. On the road, Penny is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in four outings and he’s already seen the Reds twice this season, with the Cards losing both, 2-1 on April 8 and 3-2 on April 30. In his career, Penny is 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts against the Reds, and at Great American Ballpark he is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in six starts, allowing eight runs in 40 innings of work.
Arroyo is 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three outings, but at home he is just 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. He shut down the Pirates on Monday, giving up one run on five hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory. He also dominated the Cardinals on April 8, giving up one run on four hits in eight innings of work, with Cincinnati winning, 2-1. Arroyo is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) against the Cardinals. Also, the Reds are 8-1 in Arroyo’s last nine starts against the N.L. Central, but they’ve lost 13 of his last 16 Sunday starts.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 24-10-1 overall, 10-2 on the road, 13-4-1 within the division, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2 against teams with a winning record. Also, the under is 6-1 in Penny’s seven starts this season.
Cincinnati has topped the total in five of nine against right-handed starters at home, but the “under” is 4-1-1 in the Reds’ last six against division foes, 31-14-7 in their last 52 against winning teams and 16-5-6 in their last 27 on Sunday. And with Arroyo on the hill, the under is on surges of 16-6-4 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 18-6-4 against the N.L. Central and 23-5-2 when he’s coming off five days of rest.
Finally, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six series meetings, but 10 of the last 15 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-14) at N.Y. Yankees (24-12)
The Yankees’ Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86) gets his second start of the season as he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium in the finale of a three-game series against the Twins, who will hand the ball to Nick Blackburn (3-1, 4.76).
New York has now beaten the Twins 12 straight times after Andy Pettitte pitched the Bronx Bombers to a 7-1 victory Saturday. Before Friday’s 8-4 series-opening win, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 100-43 overall, 50-11 at Yankee Stadium (12-2 this year), 39-14 against the A.L. Central, 51-24 on Sunday and 45-10 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Even with the first two losses in this series, Minnesota has still won seven of 12 and is 39-21 in its last 60 overall. However, the Twins have lost 44 of 64 against the A.L. East.
The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 12 straight in this lopsided rivalry. In fact, New York has won 52 of the last 68 meetings overall and 29 of the last 34 in the Bronx.
Blackburn was dominant in his last start a week ago, scattering four hits in seven shutout innings en route to a 6-0 victory. However, Blackburn has been knocked around on the road this year, going 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA, giving up 14 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings.
Minnesota is unbeaten in Blackburn’s last four starts overall, but they’re 8-19 in his last 27 road outings, 2-13 in his last 15 roadies against winning teams and 4-9 in his last 13 against the A.L. East. Also, the Twins have lost four straight times with Blackburn facing the Yankees, including a 4-3, 12-inning defeat in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS. Including that contest, Blackburn is 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against New York.
Mitre made his first start of the season on Monday and took the loss in a 5-4 defeat in Detroit, giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Mitre has never faced the Twins in his career.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 21-5-2 against the A.L. East, 36-16-1 on Sunday, 18-7-1 when Blackburn starts on the road, 10-2 when Blackburn pitches on Sunday and 5-0-1 when Blackburn faces A.L. East teams. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in five of six overall (all against the A.L. Central), but the over is 5-3 in their last eight home games and 6-2 in their last eight Sunday contests.
Finally, the under is 30-12-4 in the last 46 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 5/16
By Dan Bebe
National League
Mets @ Marlins (-200) with a total of 8.5
Luis Castillo is 6-for-14 off Nolasco before 2010;
Jeff Francoeur is batting .304 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Nolasco since '05;
Jose Reyes is batting near .400 off Nolasco with 3 HR and 5 RBI since '05;
David Wright is batting .361 off Nolasco with 3 HR and 8 RBI before 2010.
Jon Niese allowed 3 runs in 6 innings against the Marlins earlier this year in a losing effort, but he showed some moxie there in his first start of the season. Nolasco allowed 3 runs to the Mets in 6.2 innings, and here's where the pickle appears. Nolasco has been significantly better on the road this season than at home, but the Mets haven't done much of anything on the road. Slight lean to New York, but it's a longshot, so let's be cautious, here.
Cardinals (-140) @ Reds with a total of 8
Albert Pujols is batting .326 in 43 AB with 3 HR and 10 RBI off Arroyo since '05;
Colby Rasmus was 4-for-9 with a HR off Arroyo before 2010;
Brenday Ryan was 5-for-12 off Arroyo before 2010;
Brandon Phillips is 5-for-12 off Penny;
Scott Rolen was 4-for-12 off Penny before 2010.
This is a rematch, believe it or not. These two guys squared off on April 8 in a game Cincinnati eventually won 2-1, with both guys throwing a strong game. You guys all know how I feel about rematches, especially here, with the Cards trying to break out of a slump. Of course, the value here isn't too strong. Penny couldn't possibly pitch any better than he has so far, and Arroyo has thrown better his last 3 starts, but his bad start to the year has left him the stronger of the two values. I happen to think the Cards take this rematch, but it might be too expensive.
D'backs @ Braves (-130) with a total of 8.5
Melky Cabrera is 4-for-10 off Haren since '05;
Omar Infante is 4-for-9 off Haren;
Brian McCann is 3-for-8 off Haren with a HR and 3 RBI;
Nate McLouth is 3-for-6 off Haren with a HR and 2 RBI.
Tim Hudson is a career 3-0, 1.98 against the D'backs, who have all kinds of bullpen issues. I absolutely loathe betting the Braves, but this line is indicative of how little oddsmakers think of Haren right now. He's just not quite the same as usual, that 4.23 ERA is evidence of that. He might be 3-1 against the Braves, but his 5.40 ERA against Atlanta shows he's been a tad lucky. This might look like a deal on Arizona, but do be careful, here. Slight lean to Hudson and the Bravos.
Pirates @ Cubs (-230) with a total of N/A
Ryan Doumit is 5-for-15 with an RBI off Lilly;
Steven Pearce is 3-for-7 with an RBI off Lilly.
The Cubs haven't seen much of Ohlendorf, though it appears he did beat them the one time he took aim at Chicago. Lilly is a lifetime 4.44 ERA pitcher against the Pirates, but bear in mind there has been some significant turnover in Pittsburgh since Lilly broke into the Bigs. This is just one of those games where the Cubs will probably win, but there's just no value backing a finesse pitcher with a big hook at -230, especially with the Cubs' bullpen issues. Pass.
Nationals @ Rockies (-150) with a total of 9.5; S. Olsen vs. J. Francis;
Ryan Zimmerman is 8-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Francis.
ADD MORE HERE!!!!!!
Astros @ Giants (-200) with a total of 7
Lance Berkman is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Zito;
Mark DeRosa is 3-for-7 off Myers.
This isn't a rematch, but these teams did open the year with a series back in April. Myers gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in a game the 'Stros lost, and Zito went 6 shutout frames leading to another Giants win on the road. Since then, Zito has continued to pitch well, though he struggled mightily with his control in his last start against the Padres. Myers has gotten better since the beginning of the year, though his career 1-3 mark against the Giants, and 6.75 ERA isn't too comforting. This line is probably fair, maybe a tiny bit of value on the dog, but a Pass for me.
Dodgers @ Padres (-110) with a total of 7.5
Blake DeWitt is 3-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off LeBlanc;
Casey Blake and Andre Ethier are each 3-for-9;
Russ Martin is 3-for-6 off LeBlanc;
Tony Gwynn is 6-for-14 with a HR off Billingsley;
Yorvit Torrealba is 4-for-12 with a HR off Billingsley.
Chad Billingsley started the year VERY poorly, but he's starting to get things going in the right direction. He's still throwing way too many pitches, but it seems like he's decided that he's just going to try to strike out everyone, and if he only goes 5.1 innings, he's okay with that, as long as he's only allowing 1-2 runs. So it goes with the Dodgers young head-case. He's 8-4 against the Padres in his career, so we'll see how that confidence shakes out. Wade LeBlanc is just a wonder so far this year, 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA. He has had some issues with the Dodgers, though a couple horrible starts last year inflated his numbers. I still like the Dodgers to keep hitting, so we'll see how this one shakes out after some line moves.
Phillies (-150) @ Brewers with a total of 10
Ryan Howard is 3-for-8 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Davis;
Placido Polanco is 3-for-7 with a HR off Davis since '05;
Jayson Werth is 5-for-9 off Davis with a HR off Davis since '05;
Ryan Braun is 4-for-12 with 2 HR off Hamels.
This game has all kinds of ugly written on it. Hamels is a little better this year, but Davis is in the running for worst in the Bigs. I wouldn't back the underdog here for any amount of money, though I wouldn't lay -150 with Hamels on the road against an explosive team, either. Maybe the Over, but that's about it?
American League
Red Sox (-150) @ Tigers with a total of 9.5
Kevin Youkilis is 3-for-5 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Galarraga;
David Ortiz is 2-for-6 off Galarraga;
Mike Lowell is 2-for-6 off Galarraga;
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lackey;
Johnny Damon is batting .414 with 3 RBI off Lackey since '05.
Yikes. The triumphant return of Armando Galarraga. If there was ever a time I didn't want to even come near the Tigers, it's this cat. He has marginal numbers as a Big Leaguer, but he's a total head-case, has suffered through all kinds of confidence and control problems. Pass.
Twins @ Yankees (-150) with a total of 10
Orlando Hudson is 3-for-9 with a HR off Mitre;
Jim Thome is 3-for-4 off Mitre since '05;
Derek Jeter is 3-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Blackburn;
Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Blackburn;
Mark Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a HR and 5 RBI off Blackburn.
Mark Teixeira's 6-for-6 career mark off Blackburn is scary, and I'm not sure we'll ever get a better price on the Yanks at home than this one. Hate to say it, and I hate to lay it, but I lean Yanks, here, just based on the price.
Rangers (-130) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9
Ian Kinsler is 3-for-10 off Morrow;
Michael Young was 3-for-7 off Morrow before 2010, with a HR and 3 RBI.
Colby Lewis is somehow 1-2, with a 12.08 ERA against Toronto, but that wasn't too recent. Morrow has had horrible control problems this season, which makes him mostly unbackable. Not sure I trust Texas to get it done on the road, either, against a pretty strong offense, but it'd have to be Texas or nothing. Bad value play, though, since Morrow's 6.69 ERA this year is inflating the number.
Indians @ Orioles (-115) with a total of 9
Shin-Soo Choo is 2-for-5 off Hernandez;
Andy Marte is 3-for-5 off Hernandez;
Luis Valbuena is 3-for-6 with a HR off Hernandez;
Miguel Tejada is 6-for-12 with 4 RBI off Westbrook.
Something about this game makes me just want to look elsewhere. I'm sure there's some value buried in here, but I honestly don't have a strong bead on Westbrook, and an even weaker bead on Hernandez. Plus, Hernandez, at 0-5 on the year, is one of the tougher guys to back in the League, right now. His ERA is bad, but not unbearable, and pretty close to Westbrook's. Pass.
Mariners @ Rays (-135) with a total of 7.5
Chone Figgins is 4-for-9 with 3 RBI off Garza;
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-8 off Garza;
Jose Lopez is 4-for-9 off Garza;
Ichiro is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Garza;
Hank Blalock is 4-for-9 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Lee;
B.J. Upton is 3-for-10 off Lee.
Interestingly, Garza has a 7.01 ERA against the Mariners. It's not a ton of experience, but the mere fact that we can get Cliff Lee at a small dog price is interesting, but not that weird. The Mariners' have trouble scoring, so when the team with the best record in the AL (or did when I typed this) gives the ball to a starter with a 5-1 record and 2.49 ERA, oddsmakers have to react. I happen to like Cliff Lee's 2.53 lifetime ERA against Tampa, here. He knows how to handle this club, and has kept the big guns in check. Lean to Seattle.
White Sox @ Royals (-115) with a total of 9
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .423 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Bannister;
Carlos Quentin is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Bannister;
Alexei Ramirez is 6-for-14 with a HR and 8 RBI off Bannister;
Alex Rios is 3-for-6 off Bannister;
Yuny Betancourt is 5-for-10 with a HR and 6 RBI off Floyd;
Alberto Callaspo is 3-for-7 with a HR off Floyd.
These pitchers have stunk it up against the other team. Floyd already allowed 6 runs in 6.2 innings to the Royals earlier this year, and Bannister did him one better, allowing 7 runs in 3 innings. I can't imagine they could pitch much worse, but the Over is definitely in play on that number of 9. Let's watch how the money comes in, since reading all the numbers makes the over look TOO easy, so we may have to dodge this one unless we get some nice bet% and line move confirmation.
Athletics @ Angels (-150) with a total of 8.5
Eric Chavez is 8-for-24 with a HR and 5 RBI off Pineiro;
Gabe Gross is 2-for-4 with an RBI off Pineiro;
Kendry Morales is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Cahill.
I happen to think this line is pretty accurate. The Angels seem to be ready to win a couple games, and Pineiro's stats this year are inflated by a couple very bad starts. Cahill had decent work against the Halos last year, but I'm not 100% on board with him just yet. Pass.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Phillies (-145, O/U 10): Philadelphia is 1 win away from winning 4 of their 5 games of their road trip. The Phillies are 22-13 overall this season, tied for the best record in the National League. Philadelphia has the unique record of 22-13 both SU and on the run line this year. SU the Phillies are up 4.39 units, and nearly 9 units on the run line this season. Offensively, Philadelphia has scored 9 runs or more in 3 of their past 4 games. Cole Hamels will take the mound today for the Phillies, and he is 3-2 with an ERA of 4.53 and a WHIP of 1.53 this season. Philadelphia is 5-2 in their last 7 road games against a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 22-8 in Hamels' last 30 starts against the National League Central. The Phillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Phillies are 4-0 last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Brewers: Milwaukee is struggling mightily right now, as they've lost each of their past 5 games in blowout fashion. Even worse, all 5 losses have come at home. Milwaukee is 15-21 on the season, and are only 4-13 in home games this year. The Brewers have to be frustrated in their home play, as this was expected to be a good team this year. The Brewers will look to win today to avoid being swept in consecutive home series. Pitcher Doug Davis will take the mound today against Philadelphia. Davis is 1-4 with an ERA of 7.56 and a WHIP of 1.98 this season. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Davis' last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 16-5 in Davis' last 21 starts against a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 2-5 in Davis' last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Brewers are 4-12 last 16 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-2 last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - CF Carlos Gomez (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6