Sunday Night Baseball: Mets at Giants
By Marc Lawrence
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (-102, 8.5)
The Mets conclude a weekend visit to San Francisco when they take on the Giants under the ESPN Sunday night-lights.
New York has won the first three games of this four-game series, most recently a 9-6 victory Saturday afternoon. The Mets put up a total of 16 hits, four of which came from outfielder Carlos Beltran.
He is hitting over .460 BA for the series and leads the National League in batting, posting a .379 BA with six home runs and 28 RBI on the year.
New York will send Mike Pelfrey (4-0 4.89 ERA) to the mound against Matt Cain (3-1 3.00 ERA) in a matchup of promising young right-handers.
The king and his ailing court
Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado passed New York Yankees legend Mickey Mantle for 48th place all time on MLB’s RBI leader board last week. King Carlos has not played since May 11, out with a sore hip, and was put on the disabled list Saturday.
The main cause for concern with the Mets is the starting rotation. That’s because Mets starters other than Johan Santana had a recent stint where they combined for a 7.43 ERA and just four wins in 14 starts.
New York Manager Jerry Manuel let it be known that he was running out of patience.
"I'm at the bridge," he told reporters. "I'm not jumping. But if I'm at the bridge, I have to take some folks with me."
Jon Niese lasted two turns in the rotation as the replacement for Oliver Perez, who had a 9.97 ERA when he was demoted to the bullpen, before being placed on the DL with tendonitis in his right knee.
Niese allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Braves Wednesday afternoon before being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo. Meanwhile, Perez continues to work hard at regaining his confidence.
"I have to keep working to get back,” Perez told reporters. “The important thing is to bring my confidence back. I have to work on everything, because I haven't been throwing a lot of strikes."
Toeing the rubber
Like other New York starters, Mike Pelfrey continues to struggle while looking to firmly establish himself as a permanent fixture in the starting rotation.
When Pelfrey struck out Atlanta’s Kelly Johnson to open Tuesday's game against the Braves, it was his first K since getting Washington's Nick Johnson back on April 25. Pelfrey’s 4-0 record this season belies the fact that he has issued 15 walks against only nine strikeouts on the year.
San Francisco’s Matt Cain has been steady at home where the Giants are 8-3 in his last eleven team starts. He has struggled during the month of May, going 7-12 in his career team starts, including 3-7 at AT&T Park.
The history book says
The Mets had won five in a row against the Giants prior to the start of this series on Friday. They rolled to wins in the first three games of this four-game set, totaling 24 runs.
San Francisco has countered with combined 16 runs in those games, matching their average offensive output of just over five runs per game.
Sunday’s have been much to San Francisco’s liking where they are 10-3 the last thirteen games, whereas the Mets have struggled of late on Sundays, going 1-6 their last seven games.
Shootout at AT&T Park?
By Judd Hall
I know it’s only May, but the Mets and Giants are both hoping to see each other come October. You’ve got to dream big sometimes, right?
New York’s (20-15, +87) season is going exactly as planned since it is sitting two games ahead of the Phillies for the top spot in the National League East. It might have something to do with the fact that the Mets are tops in the Senior Circuit with a .291 batting average. Or could it be because their pitching staff is fourth in the league with a 4.00 earned run average?
When you look at the Mets’ offense, you’re seeing Carlos Beltran rank second in the NL with a .370 batting average. David Wright is also playing well by hitting .341 with three home runs and 24 runs batted in. Jerry Manuel will need them to keep up the pace now that first baseman Carlos Delgado just went onto the disabled list retroactive to May 11 with a right hip injury.
Beltran and Wright have helped New York score at least seven runs in six of its last nine fixtures, losing just once. And when you’ve got a batting order scoring runs in bunches like that, then you can count on the high combined scores to come through. Bettors taking the ‘over’ have done just that as it’s on an 8-1 run.
Helping those high totals coming through is the Mets’ defense ranking 11th in the NL with a .982 fielding percentage. That might not be too much to worry about when you consider that New York finished third in the league last year with a fielding percentage of 98.6.
Oddly enough, fielding has been Mike Pelfrey’s best friend. New York’s starter is 4-1 with a 4.89 ERA for the season. Pelfrey’s ball is play average (BIPA) is among the worst in the National League at .273. The opposition is also hitting .296 versus the right-hander during the 2009 campaign.
Despite those numbers that suggest high numbers for a combined score, the ‘over’ is just 3-2-1 when Pelfrey gets the starting nod.
San Francisco (18-17, +24) had a prime chance to make a move in the National League West after the Dodgers lost Manny Ramirez’s services for 50 games on May 7. And the Giants looked like they were striking while the iron is hot with five wins in their first six games after the Ramirez suspension.
The Giants have since come back to Earth with three straight setbacks, two of which when they were listed as favorites (and they’ve lost the first two games of the series against the Mets). All isn’t bad for bettors when it comes to San Fran. If they backed the ‘over,’ the gambling public will have cashed at an 8-2-1 clip.
San Fran will send Matt Cain out to start at AT&T Park this Sunday. The Giants’ right-hander has put together a 3-1 record with an ERA of 3.00 this season. Yet the team is just 4-3 in the seven starts Cain has had in 2009. The ‘over’ has also been a smart play at the betting shops as it is 5-1-1 in those starting assignments for Cain.
Most betting shops have installed the Giants as $1.20 home favorites (risk $120 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½.
We’ve harped on high scores here for both starting pitchers, but it’s important when looking at these teams when playing by the Bay. Another reason to play the ‘over’ here is that it is 6-2 when the Mets and Giants have played in San Francisco since the start of the 2007 season.
First pitch for this game is set for 8:05 p.m. EDT with ESPN handling the broadcasting duties.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (22-14) at St. Louis (21-15)
The surging Brewers send left-hander Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82 ERA) to the mound against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) and this weekend series resumes at Busch Stadium, with both squads among a four-team logjam at the top of the N.L. Central Division.
After Friday’s game was postponed by rain, these rivals opened their first series of the season against each other on Saturday and Milwaukee rode a second-inning Corey Hart home run to a 1-0 victory. Four pitchers combined on the shutout for the Brewers, who are on an 18-5 tear in their last 23 games, winning the last four in a row and six of the last seven. Furthermore, Milwaukee, which now sits alone atop the N.L. Central standings, is on a 9-2 run in division play and has won eight of its last 10 road games.
St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games and is 1-5 in its last six against winning teams. Still, the Redbirds still sport positive streaks of 21-9 at Busch Stadium, 7-2 against left-handed starters and 5-0 facing southpaws at home.
Milwaukee has owned this rivalry lately, going 8-1 in the last nine clashes overall and 7-1 in its last eight games in St. Louis.
The Brewers came up empty in Parra’s first five starts of the season, with the lefty going 0-4 and posting a 5.33 ERA in the process, but Milwaukee has won in his last two outings –a 15-3 victory at Cincinnati on May 6 and a 6-3 home win over Florida on Tuesday. Parra is 1-3 with a 6.05 ERA in four road starts this season, and the Brew Crew is on slides of 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall and 1-7 in his last eight road appearances.
Wellemeyer got torched for seven runs (all earned) in just 4 1/3 innings in his last outing, Tuesday’s 7-1 setback at Pittsburgh, and he’s allowed four or more in runs in four of his seven starts this season. The 30-year-old is 1-2 with a 6.55 ERA in four home efforts, and St. Louis is 1-7 in the right-hander’s last eight home starts against winning teams and 0-5 in his last five Sunday outings.
In six career appearances (five starts) against St. Louis, Parra has yet to get a decision, going 0-0 with a 3.77 ERA. Wellemeyer is 0-2 with a 5.88 ERA in 10 career appearances (three starts) against Milwaukee.
The over for Milwaukee is on rolls of 7-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 4-1-2 behind Parra on the road. On the flip side, the under for St. Louis is on stretches of 12-3-1 at home against winning teams and 6-2-1 against lefty starters, and with Wellemeyer taking the ball, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on Sunday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last seven contests in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (18-17) at Texas (22-14)
Scott Feldman (2-0, 4.85 ERA) leads the red-hot Rangers as they wrap up a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark against the A.L. West rival Angels, who will start right-hander Jared Weaver (3-1, 2.45).
Texas, coming off a 10-8 win in Friday’s opener, eked out a 5-3 victory over Los Angeles on Saturday to extend its winning streak to six in a row. The Rangers have won 12 of their last 14 overall and they’re on additional rolls of 7-0 at home, 9-1 against right-handed starters and 8-1 in divisional contests.
Despite losing the first two games of this series, Los Angeles remains on a 9-4 overall run, and the Halos are on additional upswings of 6-3 against winning teams and 20-8 on Sunday. However, they’ve now dropped seven of their last nine games on the highway against teams with a winning record.
The Angels are still 8-5 in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry, including 4-2 in Texas.
Feldman has racked up five no-decisions among his seven starts this season, but he’s been solid in his last two stints, allowing three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings (2.19 ERA). On Tuesday against Seattle, Feldman yielded just one run on four hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in a 7-1 home victory. He’s got a 5.82 ERA in four home appearances (two starts) this season. Texas is 4-1 in the right-hander’s last five outings, but prior to Tuesday’s win over Seattle, it has lost seven consecutive Feldman starts at home.
Weaver is 2-0 with three no-decisions in his last five starts. The 26-year-old is coming off a strong effort Tuesday against the Red Sox, allowing one run on four hits in seven innings, but he got little offensive support as Los Angeles blew a 3-1, eighth-inning lead and lost 4-3 at home. Weaver is 0-1 with an inflated 6.55 ERA in two road starts, and the Angels are 0-4 in his last four outings on the highway dating to last season. However, the Halos have won Weaver’s last four Sunday stints.
Feldman is 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 13 career appearances (four starts) against Los Angeles, while Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in nine career starts against Texas, including 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts at Rangers Ballpark.
The under for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 7-3-1 on Sunday and 21-8 behind Feldman (including 5-1 at home), and the under for Los Angeles is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-0 on the road against winning teams and 4-1 with Weaver starting. In addition, the total has stayed low in five of Weaver’s last six starts against the Rangers (5-0-1), and all four of Weaver’s starts in Texas have played to the under.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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