Sunday Night Baseball: Mets at Phillies Betting Preview
By THE PREZ
Shocker: Another visit by a New York team to ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball.” But after going 12-4 since Tax Day, the Mets truly deserve to be featured nationally.
The Mets cruised to a 9-1 victory on Friday but the Phillies returned the favor Saturday with a 10-0 shallacking. Make no mistake, this is a heated rivalry.
"No matter what, anytime we play the Phillies, I think it means something," pitcher Mike Pelfrey said. "No matter who we're playing, we want to go out there and win. The fans will be into it."
Red-hot Metropolitans
New York entered this series with a half-game lead over the Phils in the NL East thanks to a seven-game winning streak – a streak that just so happened to start on Sunday night baseball a week ago against Atlanta.
The Mets just had a historic homestand by going 9-1. According to the team’s website, only twice in team history -- in 1969 and '88 -- have the Mets fared so well at home (they made the playoffs both of those years).
During that 10-game run, New York outscored its opposition a whopping 48-23 and swept both the Braves and Dodgers. Over the homestand, the Mets had a 2.09 ERA in 86 innings with three shutouts. The bullpen has a 2.45 ERA this season.
Hitting-wise, young first baseman Ike Davis has been a revelation, batting .306 with six RBIs in his first 12 major league games. And the offense took off when manager Jerry Manuel moved Jose Reyes to third in the lineup and dropped David Wright to No. 5 to help protect Jason Bay.
Remember that this team lost its first four series of the season for the first time since 1997. Every member of the team seems to point to better fundamentals as the key to the success.
“The thing we hope to do is to remain solid . . . because there are going to be periods where you’re not going to hit,” Manuel told reporters. “If fielding, baserunning, those types of things, if you can bring those things every day, I think it gives you a pretty good chance to win.”
Phils’ bullpen gets a boost
Philadelphia’s bullpen has not been a huge strength so far, especially fill-in closer Ryan Madson.
Madson gave up a run on two hits against the Giants on Wednesday afternoon while suffering his second blown save of the season. Entering the weekend he was 1-0 with four saves but had an ERA of 7.00. He has six blown saves in his last 20 opportunities as interim closer (dating to the start of 2009).
After Madson blew Wednesday’s game, he stormed through the dugout and kicked over a chair. The temper tantrum caused him to break his right big toe and forced the Phillies placed him on the 15-day disabled list.
Fortunately for Philly, Brad Lidge was activated on Friday. He had been on the DL since March 26 after recovering from offseason surgery on his right elbow.
Lidge had a 5.19 ERA in his minor-league rehab but threw seven scoreless innings over his final six outings.
Will the Phils get the 2008 unhittable Lidge or the guy who had a 7.21 ERA and blew 11 of his 42 save chances in 2009? The answer to that will probably determine if the Phillies will need to make a trade.
Ryno dehorned
Ryan Howard hasn’t earned a penny of his five-year, $125 million contract extension since the ink dried Monday.
The Phils first baseman is 5-for-19 in five games with just one homerun and one RBI to go along with seven strikeouts. Howard is hitting for a decent average this season (.275), but has totaled almost as many strikeouts (21) as hits (27).
The Philadelphia front office has received a plethora of criticism since penning Howard to the long-term deal. Critics ask how in the world is Howard worth more than Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols?
"The sabermetricians are welcome to have their opinions about our business,” Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “However, I choose to ignore their opinions."
On the bump
The Mets start co-ace Johan Santana tonight – you have to say co-ace now with how good Mike Pelfrey has been.
Santana (3-1, 2.08) held the Dodgers scoreless for six innings Tuesday, allowing four hits and striking out six. He has not allowed a home run over his past three starts and he has a 20:4 strikeouts to walks ratio in those 19.1 innings. Over the past three seasons, Santana is 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA against the Phillies, holding them to a .195 batting average.
He’ll want to keep the Howard in the park as Philly is 4-0 entering the weekend when the big lefty hits a home run, and the team went 26-13 under those circumstances last season. Howard and Chase Utley have hit three home runs each against Santana and Raul Ibanez is batting .350 in 40 career at-bats against him.
Philadelphia counters with 76-year-old Jamie Moyer. Okay, he’s only 47 but is the majors’ oldest player by far.
Moyer (2-2, 5.25 ERA) wasn’t very good last time out, allowing a season-high 10 hits and four runs in six innings against the Giants. He is 4-3 with a 4.45 ERA in the past three seasons against the Mets but has allowed 11 homers in 89 innings against them.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-10) at Philadelphia (12-11)
The Mets send ace Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08 ERA) to the mound for the rubber match of a three-game weekend series against Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) and the rival Phillies in a nationally televised battle from Citizens Bank Park.
Roy Halladay pitched a complete-game three-hit shutout and Shane Victorino’s three-run homer highlighted a six-run fourth inning as Philadelphia rolled the Mets 10-0 on Saturday, snapping New York’s eight-game winning streak and its own three-game home losing skid. Still, since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 13, and they’re in further funks of 0-4 against lefty starters overall and 0-5 when facing lefties at home. On the bright side, Philadelphia has won 38 of its last 51 Sunday contests.
Although the Mets’ long winning streak came to a halt Saturday, they’re still 10-2 in their last 12 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. However, Jerry Manuel’s club is still in slumps of 17-39 on the road, 16-39 against N.L. East rivals, 7-17 versus winning teams, 9-22 versus southpaw starters and 5-16 on the road against lefties.
The Phillies went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and they’ve now won 12 of the last 15 meetings, including seven of the last nine at Citizens Bank.
Santana is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three starts (all Mets wins), giving up just one run on 16 hits and four walks with 20 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. In his most recent outing Wednesday against the Dodgers, he scattered four hits and three walks over six scoreless innings of a 4-0 win. In his only road effort in 2010, the former Cy Young winner pitched seven shutout innings but didn’t factor in the decision as the Cardinals won 2-1 in 20 innings.
New York has won four of Santana’s five starts this season and four of his last five starts against the Phillies. Santana has faced Philadelphia nine times in his career, with eight of those starts coming since the joined the Mets in 2008, and he’s 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA, including 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank Park. Last year, he went 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against the Phillies.
Moyer is coming off a 6-2 loss in San Francisco, getting rocked for four runs on 10 hits in six innings. The 47-year-old has pitched exactly six innings in all four of his starts this season, including a 5-1 loss to the Marlins in his only home game so far, with Moyer giving up all five runs in that defeat.
The Phillies have really struggled lately with Moyer starting, going 2-7 in his last nine starts overall, 0-5 in his last five at home and 1-6 in his last seven against winning teams. However, Philly has won seven of Moyer’s last nine on Sunday and 37 of his last 53 starts against the N.L. East. Against the Mets, he’s 8-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 starts, including 1-1 with a beefy 6.91 ERA in five contests last year. Still, Philadelphia is 5-2 in Moyer’s last seven outings against New York.
The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-5-1 overall, 4-2 on the road, 6-1 against N.L. East foes and 21-8-1 on Sunday, and with Santana on the hill, the under is on stretches of 3-0-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1 on Sunday.
The under is also 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven divisional games and 7-3 both in Moyer’s last 10 Sunday starts and his last 10 against the N.L. East. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 35-16-2 overall, 11-3-1 at home, 12-2 in the third game of a series, 6-2 on Sunday and 5-1 when Moyer starts at home.
Finally, these teams soared over the total Saturday, but the under is still 11-3 in the last 14 series meetings overall, including 7-2 in the last nine in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-13) at Detroit (15-10)
Jered Weaver (3-0, 2.53 ERA) looks to keep his perfect record intact and help his team avoid a three-game sweep when he leads the Angels against Justin Verlander (1-2, 5.53) and the Tigers in the finale of a weekend series at Comerica Park.
Detroit stretched its winning streak to four in a row with Saturday’s 3-2 walk-off victory over Los Angeles, as Johnny Damon belted a game-winning homer with one out in the bottom of the ninth. The Tigers are on positive runs of 8-3 at home this year, 4-1 versus right-handed starters, 7-2 in the third game of a series, 6-2 versus the A.L. West and 7-2 on Sunday
Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-6 in its last 10 games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-4 versus winning teams, 36-15 on Sunday and 49-19 in the third game of a series.
These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last four in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-25 overall run in this rivalry.
Weaver dominated the Indians in a 5-2 home victory Monday, giving up just a run on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven in six innings. The veteran right-hander pitched at least six innings and gave up three earned runs or fewer in all five of his April starts, including yielding two runs or fewer in the last four, and he’s got a 34-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Additionally, going back to last season (playoffs included), Weaver has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and 13 of the last 14.
With Weaver on the bump, the Halos are on positive runs of 23-9 overall (7-1 last eight), 10-4 on the road (1-0 this year), 9-2 versus A.L. Central foes and 6-1 on Sunday. However, the only game the Angels have lost this season with Weaver pitching came against Detroit on April 21, as he surrendered two runs on six hits in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3 loss. For his career, Weaver is 2-2 with a 6.34 ERA against the Tigers, including 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in one game at Comerica Park.
Verlander allowed just one unearned run and four hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Twins on Tuesday, but he threw 121 pitches and got no run support in a 2-0 home loss. It marked the fourth time in five starts this year that the right-hander failed to get out of the sixth inning, and he’s now 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in two home starts this season.
Prior to facing the Twins, Verlander led his team to a 5-4 road victory over Los Angeles despite surrendering four runs on six hits and four walks in five innings. He’s now 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in seven career starts against Los Angeles, but the Tigers have lost four straight home games to the Angels with Verlander starting. On the positive end, with Verlander working Detroit is on upticks of 6-2 overall, 44-21 at home, 17-8 against the A.L. West and 16-4 on Sunday.
The Halos sport “under” streaks of 21-6 on the road, 15-5-1 versus the A.L. Central and 14-4 against right-handed starters on the road. Also, with Weaver starting, the under is on runs of 9-1-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Sunday, 20-7-1 against the A.L. Central and 3-1 versus the Tigers. Conversely, Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-3-1 overall, 6-3 at home, 5-1-1 versus the A.L. West, 4-1-1 against right-handed starters, 7-2-1 behind Verlander overall, 4-1 when Verlander starts at home and 3-1 when Verlander faces L.A.
Finally, the under is 7-3-1 the last 10 times the Angels have visited Motown, with Saturday’s contest staying well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE