Sunday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The final Sunday of May involves plenty of intriguing matchups, including several contests on the West Coast. The Padres look to stay atop the NL West against the Nationals while the Giants and D-Backs close out their series by the Bay. We'll start at Coors Field with the Dodgers trying to keep up their domination of the Rockies.
Dodgers at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST
Los Angeles has owned this series, especially on the road, as Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers. Colorado's five-game winning streak came to an end on Friday night in a 5-4 loss as L.A. rallied from a 4-0 deficit.
Kershaw (4-3, 2.90 ERA) shut down the Rockies when he last saw them at Chavez Ravine earlier this month. The young southpaw outdueled the NL's best pitcher this season, Ubaldo Jimenez, in a 2-0 victory. Kershaw scattered two hits in eight innings of work, while striking out nine. The lefty was on the wrong side of a 3-0 loss at Chicago his last time out, even though Kershaw has allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts (3-1). The day numbers have been fantastic as opposed to the night stats, as the Dodgers are 5-0 in his matinee starts and 1-4 in his starts underneath the lights.
The Rockies counter with Jhoulys Chacin (3-2, 3.09 ERA), who bounced back after two subpar starts to beat the Diamondbacks. Chacin allowed four hits and two earned runs in six innings against Arizona, after giving up nine earned runs in losses to the Cubs and Nationals. He has seen his ups and downs after not allowing one run in his first two outings of the season, including 7.1 scoreless innings in an 8-0 thrashing of the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is 8-2 the last ten meetings at Coors Field, while five of the games have been decided by one run. The Rockies are 7-1 in their last eight Game 3's of a series, with the lone loss coming in Kershaw's masterpiece over Jimenez back on May 9.
Nationals at Padres - 4:05 PM EST
San Diego and Washington have turned into two of the biggest early-season surprises, but it's the Padres who sit atop the NL West heading into Sunday's series finale. The Padres look to get their bats going against Livan Hernandez, while Jon Garland tries to keep up his hot hand for San Diego.
The Nats have become a mystery at times for bettors this season, cashing in three straight road 'overs' after six consecutive 'unders' on the highway. Hernandez (4-3, 2.08 ERA) has been very consistent for Washington, turning in quality starts in seven of nine outings. If there's one thing you can count on with the former World Series MVP is 'unders,' cashing in eight of nine starts. The Nats are 2-2 in his four away starts, with the last two resulting in losses at Colorado and San Francisco.
The veteran Garland (6-2, 2.10 ERA) has become the best offseason acquisition by far for San Diego, allowing eight earned runs in his last eight starts. Garland tossed a gem in a 1-0 victory over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals his last time out. The righty yielded six hits in seven scoreless innings, his third scoreless outing in his previous five trips to the mound. Garland has shined most at Petco Park, going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.84 in five home starts.
Washington owns a solid 10-4 record in Game 3's this season, while San Diego has dropped six consecutive games a home favorite.
Diamondbacks at Giants - 4:05 PM EST
San Francisco and Arizona finish off its three-game series at AT&T Park with the Giants going for the series victory. After the D-Backs lit up Giants' pitching in Phoenix two weeks ago, San Francisco returned the favor with a 5-0 shutout on Friday night.
Ian Kennedy (3-3, 3.41 ERA) silenced the San Francisco bats by delivering eight innings of three-hit ball in a 13-1 thrashing at Chase Field on May 19. The former Yankee has pitched well despite Arizona's 4-6 mark in Kennedy's ten starts. The righty has been on the wrong side of two road losses at Atlanta and Colorado, each by one run apiece.
Kennedy defeated Todd Wellemeyer (3-4, 5.36 ERA) in the team's opening meeting in Phoenix, as the Giants' righty was tagged for five earned runs and three homers in five innings. San Francisco has alternated wins and losses in each of his previous six starts, coming off a victory over Washington his last time out.
The D-Backs have lost each of their last seven Game 3's, while San Francisco looks to improve to 7-1 in its previous eight at home.
Rangers at Twins - 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota goes for the sweep at Target Field after holding Texas to just three runs in the first two wins of this series. The Twins put up six runs in the seventh inning of Saturday's 8-3 triumph, as Carl Pavano scattered seven hits and two runs in seven innings for the victory.
Scott Baker (4-4, 4.48 ERA) has not won in his last three starts, all Twins losses to the Yankees and Red Sox. Baker's outing against New York was cut short due to the game being suspended by rain after five innings. The righty allowed three hits in five scoreless innings, but the Yankees pulled out a 1-0 win when the game continued the next day. The Twins finished 3-0 in Baker's three starts against the Rangers last season, while four of his six career starts versus Texas have finished 'under' the total.
The Rangers counter with lefty Derek Holland (2-0, 2.95 ERA), who looks for his third quality start in four tries. The southpaw dominated Oakland in his season debut, but has allowed two homers in each of his last two starts against the Cubs and Angels. Holland has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his three outings, while hurling an inning of relief against the Royals on Wednesday. This is Holland's first road start of the season, as Texas is 1-7 in his last eight starts on the highway.
Texas has struggled on the road recently by dropping seven of its previous eight away from Arlington, while Minnesota is 5-1 the last six Game 3's of a series.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Sunday showcases a number of pitchers taking the mound who’ve been dealing aces lately.
That’s why we’re rolling with three streaking hurlers and just one slumping.
Streaking
Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox rotation is in shambles but Boston backers can feel at ease whenever this lefty takes the bump. Lester is 5-0 in his last five decisions and the Sox are 6-1 in his last seven outings.
The Washington state native has struck out 28 batters compared to only nine walks. And Lester is working deep into games (he’s pitched seven or more innings in five of his last six appearances), so you don’t have to worry about the bullpen screwing things up.
Total bettors take notice: the under is 6-2-1 in his last nine starts.
Jon Garland, San Diego Padres
Baseball bettors are all wondering whether Garland has rediscovered his 2005 form or whether he’s just benefiting from calling pitcher-friendly PETCO Field his new home ballpark.
His home ERA (0.84) is almost a full three runs lower than his number on the road. The righty looked great in his last start, pitching seven scoreless innings against a good-hitting Cardinals club.
Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles
There was a time last season when oddsmakers couldn’t pay bettors to back this guy. But Guthrie is doing a great job of making Baltimore backers forget about 2009.
Guthrie has pitched 20 innings, allowing three earned runs and just four walks, over his last turns in the rotation. Right-handed batters are hitting just .175 with a .207 on-base percentage.
Slumping
Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
There were whispers in spring that Masterson could emerge as Cleveland’s staff ace but things haven’t gone that way for the former Red Sox reliever. Opposing hitters are batting .321 while getting on base at a .406 clip against the Jamaican native.
It’s gotten so bad that the last-place Indians are even considering dropping Masterson from the rotation.
"We'll see," Manny Acta told the Associated Press following a four-inning, five-run outing last week. "It's not just going to be a knee-jerk reaction after a game before we talk it over and talk to the player. Up to now, he's still starting for us."
MLB RoundUp For 5/30
By Dan Bebe
National League
Astros @ Reds (-175) with a total of 8.5
Jay Bruce is 3-for-8 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Paulino;
Laynce Nix is 5-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Paulino.
Those stats, of course, are from meetings prior to 2010. This year, Paulino went 5 innings against the Reds and allowed 6 runs, though only 2 of them were earned. Leake went 7 innings of 1-run ball against the 'Stros. I will say, though, that this line seems somewhat low considering Paulino's 1-4, 5.51 ERA lifetime against Cincy, and considering Leake is a perfect 4-0 this year with a 2.70 ERA. I think, based on numbers alone, you have to think the Reds win, but I'm not touching this one.
Phillies @ Marlins (-125) with a total of 9.5
Ryan Howard is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Sanchez;
Carlos Ruiz was 4-for-10 off Sanchez with 1 RBI;
Chase Utley was 7-for-18 with 3 RBI off Sanchez prior to 2010;
Chris Coghlan is 5-for-10 off Moyer;
Wes Helms is 7-for-19 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Moyer;
Ronny Paulino was 8-for-18 off Moyer before 2010;
Hanley Ramirez was batting .348 with 4 HR and 7 RBI.
There was a long stretch of time where Jamie Moyer owned the Marlins, but those days are gone. We'll give Moyer credit, he's been decent this year, fairly consistent, even. But he did allow 5 runs in 6 innings to Florida, and got knocked around a bit when he faced them towards the end of 2009. Sanchez has struggled with Philadelphia, as he, too, allowed 5 runs in 6 innings, so I'm not sure there's a huge edge here. I'd love to fade Moyer against the Marlins again, but Sanchez is about the last guy I'd want on the other side.
Pirates @ Braves (-175) with a total of 9
Troy Glaus is 4-for-11 with a HR and 3 RBI off Maholm;
David Ross is 6-for-20 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Maholm.
The Pirates haven't seen much of Kawakami, though I suppose you could argue Kenshin is coming off his two most effective starts of the season. Still, at 0-7, the ERA almost doesn't matter, since it's evident that Kawakami's poor luck and inability to make the big pitch have set him squarely behind the 8-ball. Maholm has been solid, and has a 1.33 ERA against the Braves in his career, and there's certainly some value here with the underdog Pirates. Not sure if it's powerful enough to be a top play, but certainly on the list of longshots.
Mets @ Brewers (-135) with a total of 9
Jason Bay is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Wolf;
Angel Pagan is 4-for-6 off Wolf;
Jose Reyes is batting .435 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Wolf;
David Wright is 8-for-26 with 2 RBI off Wolf;
Joe Inglett is 3-for-5 with 2 RBI off Dickey.
R.A. Dickey has made a nice impression in his 2 starts for the Mets, but of course, the issue with the knuckler is that it can come and go pretty quickly, and it rather largely dependent on humidity, wind, fingernails, and a host of other odd factors that can't always be predicted. Wolf is 12-5 with a 3.29 ERA lifetime against the Mets, though as noted above, there are a few Mets bats that have hit him hard. Tough call on this one, as Wolf is coming off his best start, and Dickey seems ripe for a bad one, but will it be today?
Cardinals (-115) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
Matt Holliday is 3-for-8 off Dempster;
Ryan Ludwick is 8-for-19 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Yadier Molina is batting .318 off Dempster in 22 AB;
Skip Schumaker is batting .419 off Dempster with 3 RBI in 31 AB;
Mike Fontenot is 6-for-17 with 3 RBI off Wainwright;
Xavier Nady is 6-for-16 with 2 RBI off Wainwright;
Aramis Ramirez is 12-for-32 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Wainwright.
This is another spot where two big-time aces face off against offenses that have had a little more success than you might expect. You can see from the notes above that there are a few batters that have collected some hits, and Wainwright, despite a 2.38 ERA against the League, hsa a 4.38 ERA against the Cubbies, and Dempser, a 3.31 ERA this year, posts a 4.19 ERA against St. Louis. We have to wait on the wind, but there might be some value in an Over, here, if either team could put the bat on the ball.
Dodgers @ Rockies (-110) with a total of 9
Dexter Fowler was 3-for-8 off Kershaw before this year;
Brad Hawpe was 4-for-11 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Kershaw before 2010;
Todd Helton was 4-for-12 off Kershaw before 2010.
This isn't a rematch, but based on the numbers these guys posted in their earlier start against the other guys this one could be scoreless into the 11th inning. Kershaw tossed 8 shutout frames in beating Ubaldo Jimenez in LA, and Chacin tossed 7.1 scoreless frames to beat the Dodgers' Haeger earlier in that same series. Now, back in Coors, oddsmakers are giving Chacin a lot of credit. Since a very bad start against the Brewers, Kershaw has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 4 outings, so he's hot, right now, and Chacin isn't struggling, but he's giving up a couple runs in most outings as teams learn his stuff and start to force adjustments. I know the line is eerily lo, but I lean slightly to the Dodgers to take this finale.
D'backs @ Giants (-115) with a total of 8.5
Stephen Drew was 6-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Wellemeyer before 2010;
Conor Jackson was 3-for-7 off Wellemeyer before 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! These two guys faced off in Arizona a little under 2 weeks ago, and Kennedy got the best of Wellemeyer, throwing an absolute gem (8 innings, 1 run). Wellemeyer didn't counter all that well, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings. However, that was then, and this is now, and Arizona is in a deep, deep offensive slump, and while the Giants still aren't hitting, they might be able to win this one with 2-3 runs. Kennedy has pitched very well for Arizona, so it's not at all a sure thing, and if the D'backs aren't scoring, they're in big trouble with that godawful bullpen. Lean to Giants.
Nationals @ Padres (-140) with a total of 6.5
Josh Willingham is 3-for-6 off Garland;
For whatever reason, I'm having issues pulling up It-Shall-Be Livan's numbers against the Padres, but it almost doesn't matter, as Hernandez has discovered the fountain of youth this year. He did, however, have his worst start his last time out, in San Francisco, and you just have to wonder how long Livan can continue this resurgence before he hits a little wall. It might be happening now. That being said, Petco can make pitchers look good, and the 6.5 total certainly supports that notion. I think the Padres find a way to win this game, but I don't think I'd bet it.
American League
Indians @ Yankees (-290) with a total of 10
Robinson Cano is 4-for-7 off Masterson;
Derek Jeter is 3-for-8 with an RBI off Masterson.
These lines are really starting to get out of hand, over -300 yesterday, and this one opening at -290 despite Burnett scuffling a bit, of late. It's just a shame that Masterson is such a huge turd that he can't really be counted on to keep his team in it. Masterson does have half-decent numbers against the Yankees, likely from his time with Boston, and Burnett's 1-4 career record against Cleveland is intriguing, as well. Might as well toss a 1/4-unit on Cleveland, and if they get 1 of the 3 games in New York, we make a nice little chunk.
Athletics @ Tigers with a total of N/A
Jack Cust is 4-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Galarraga;
Jake Fox is 3-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Galarraga;
Ryan Sweeney is 6-for-12 off Galarraga with a HR and 2 RBI;
Gerald Laird is 5-for-12 with 2 RBI off Braden;
Magglio Ordonez is 4-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Braden;
Ryan Raburn is 6-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Braden.
Dallas Braden faced the Tigers 2 starts back and allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings in a pretty solid effort, though it wasn't enough, as Verlander outpitched him. Tonight, Braden's got himself a little bit weaker competition. That being said, Braden has never been lights out against Detroit. He's 2-3 against the Tigers with a 6.63 ERA, and Detroit is downright dangerous at home. Galarraga has made 2 starts this year, one good and one bad, and I hesitate to back someone that is just not good and has almost no upside. Hm...
Orioles @ Blue Jays (-200) with a total of 8
Adam Jones is 3-for-10 with a HR off Romero;
Nick Markakis is 4-for-13 with a HR and 4 RBI off Romero;
Ty Wigginton is 3-for-8 off Romero;
Jose Bautista is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Guthrie;
Edwin Encarnacion is 3-for-5 with a HR off Guthrie.
Ricky Romero is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA against Baltimore, but at the same time, Baltimore stinks. I've made the huge mistake of continually thinking this team could come up with one gosh darn key hit, and they just never do. Guthrie is 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA against Toronto, so on paper, this looks like a huge value play on Baltimore, but I'm not touching the Orioles until they get on any kind of hot streak.
Royals @ Red Sox (-300) with a total of 9
Yuny Betancourt is 4-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lester;
Adrian Beltre is 6-for-15 with a HR and 3 RBI off Chen;
Jason Varitek is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Chen;
Kevin Youkilis is 5-for-11 with 3 RBI off Chen.
As you may or may not recall, Bruce Chen actually pitched alright last year, but look at this line. Just silly. Quarter-unit auto-play on Kansas City? Mabye. Lester's been red hot, he's 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA against the Royals, and while Chen's numbers against Boston aren't horrific, this doesn't look good for KC. But, we're tracking those underdogs on games where the fave is over 300, so let's keep an eye on it.
White Sox @ Rays with a total of N/A
Alexei Ramirez is 3-for-6 with a HR off Shields;
REMATCH ALERT! Peavy gave up 7 runs in his start against Shields in Chicago, and Shields allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings. There are times I think the loser of the first game has a nice shot, but Peavy's been horrible over his last couple starts, and there's no good reason to back a pitcher trending down. Shields just quietly gives up 2 runs every time out and goes deep in games. Pass.
Mariners @ Angels (-165) with a total of 9
We talked about Snell yesterday before Seattle rearranged the starting pitchers and got King Felix in there. So, you're all aware of Snell's 0-2 and 7.15 mark against the Angels. Going against Saunders has brought the price down a tiny bit from the -200 we saw with Weaver on the hill. Saunders, though, might be an even better bet than Weaver was. Joe is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA against the Mariners in his career, and has really turned his year around with a better May. The concern remains the "walk" - Saunders walked 5 Mariners in a little over 5 innings of work. He wiggled out of some jams, but if he stops putting guys on base for free, he could be dominating teams. I can't trust Snell, and I can't trust Seattle's offense, but not sure I can lay -165 on a guy that might walk a batter an inning.
Rangers @ Twins (-140) with a total of 8.5
Nelson Cruz is 3-for-6 with 2 HR off Baker.
Derek Holland beat the Twins last year, somehow, despite allowing quite a few base knocks. But the reason he survived that start is the opposite of why he hasn't been perfect this season - the longball. Holland has allowed 4 homers in his 3 starts, and again, with Target Field playing large, this should be a great venue for Holland to continue throwing that heat and hope to keep it in the park. Scott Baker is a nice pitcher, if just because you almost always know what you're getting - he's going to throw strikes, and his opponent will probably score a couple. There's some value with Holland here, but again, if the ball is jumping, the roof (which, coincidentally, is now a metaphor and not a real roof) could cave in quick.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
Phillies: Philadelphia is still struggling offensively, yet they keep winning. Philadelphia has won both games against Florida in this series despite scoring a total of 3 runs in the series. The Phillies have scored a total of 7 runs in their past 7 games combined. The Phillies are 28-20 this year, leading the National League East by 1.5 games over the Braves. Philadelphia will take the field today as a rather large listed underdog. Left handed veteran P Jamie Moyer will take the ball today, as he tries to follow up the perfect game that was pitched yesterday. Moyer is 5-4 this season, with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.12. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Moyers' last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Phillies are 8-2 in Moyers' last 10 road starts against a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 1-6 in Moyers last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 6-0 last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Under is 9-1-1 last 11 overall.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Marlins (-125, O/U 9.5): How is Florida going to respond offensively the day after not reaching base? Confidence is surely an issue as they head into their series finale against the Phillies. Florida has lost their past 4 games, falling to 24-26 on the year. The Marlins have the worst record in the National League East. P Anibal Sanchez has been dealing of late, as he's won each of his past 3 starts. Sanchez is 4-2 this year, with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.35. The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter. Florida is 5-1 in Sanchezs' last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 16-4 in Sanchezs' last 20 starts as a home favorite. Florida is 2-5 in Sanchezs' last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Marlins are 21-8 last 29 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 7-2 last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Key Injuries - C John Baker (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Rangers: Texas has struggled of late, and it's because of their pitching. The Rangers have allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of their past 6 games. The Rangers organization stresses long outings from their starting rotation, but some people are wondering if this staff is already wearing down. Texas has lost their past 3 games heading into tonight's game. The Rangers are 26-23 this year, yet are only 8-14 on the road this season. Lefty Derek Holland will look to continue his brilliant start to this season. Holland is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.04 this year. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Texas is 1-8 in their last 9 road games. The Rangers are 3-7 in Hollands last 10 starts overall. Texas is 1-6 in Hollands last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Rangers are 5-13 last 18 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 8-1 last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - RF Nelson Cruz (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Twins (-140, O/U 8.5): Minnesota is yet again going about their business very quietly. Only 1 team in the American League has a better record than the Twins do. Minnesota is 29-20 on the season, and have won 3 consecutive games heading into tonight's contest. Offensively, the Twins have scored 8 runs in 2 of their past 3 contests. Minnesota has allowed their opponents 3 runs or fewer in each of their past 5 games. P Scott Baker will take the mound today, and he's hoping to improve on his recent poor play. Baker is 4-4 this year, with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.33. The Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Minnesota is 38-14 in their last 52 home games against a left-handed starter. The Twins are 7-0 in Bakers last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Minnesota is 8-3 in Bakers last 11 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Twins are 5-0 last 5 against the American League West.
Under is 12-3 last 15 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)