Sunday's MLB Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Sunday will end the weekend on a high note as 15 games crowd the betting rotation from coast to coast. Specifically, three series will be going to Game 4s as Baltimore-Detroit, Dodgers-Cubs and Arizona-Atlanta all wrap up their extended sets.
So off to the diamond we go in search of pitching matchups and other tools to use for a leg up at the window.
Baltimore at Detroit – 1:35 p.m. EDT
After five straight wins, could the Orioles be finding a groove in the hopes of removing themselves from the basement in the AL East? Not so fast. But it’s still worth examining what Baltimore is doing right and if the momentum can carry into the next week.
A 7-1 run through the last eight can be credited to a pitching staff holding opponents to scoring 3.4 runs per game. Between both starters and pen both units have held there own for a 3.38 ERA supported by a 1.30 WHIP. These are major improvements over the same staff that chalked up a 5.75 ERA in the month of April.
Starting for the O’s on Sunday will be relatively obscure, Jason Berken (1-0, 3.60 ERA). The 210-pound right-hander pitched effectively in his first start in the Majors, giving up two runs off seven hits in a win over Toronto on Tuesday. A sixth round selection in the 2006 June draft, Berken’s four seamer clocks in the mid-90’s, but an improving slider and two seam fastball are all weapons in this kid’s arsenal (ok, at 25 he's not a kid but you get the point). Duties with Triple-A Norfolk Tides this year had Berken going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 25.2 innings.
Should it be a coincidence that six of the last seven wins have been accompanied by ‘under’ plays? Not really, especially when the pitching game has been so spot on. Even with the bats in the lineup generating 5.9 runs per game, books have decided to place the total in the last two games at 10 ½-runs consecutively.
From taking seven straight to dropping five of its last seven, the Tigers are once again looking for answers. Edwin Jackson (4-3, 2.58) has improved his game, walking a career low, 0.26 per inning. Despite dropping a tough loss in Kansas City (6-1) in his last start, Jackson still has the opportunity to spearhead the season. In his limited, three career starts (five total appearances) versus Baltimore, Jackson has amassed a 2-1 record but has been crushed for a 8.31 ERA. So what we have here is mixed feelings. Despite this, the six-year vet could be having a turn around season.
The ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings in Baltimore.
Atlanta at Arizona – 4:10 p.m. EDT
The Braves will place rookie slinger, Kris Medlen (0-2, 9.72) on the mound in what they hope will push them closer to second place, Philadelphia in the NL East. Medlen has been roughed up in his two starts this season. Against Colorado, he was touched for five earned runs off just three hits, while a loss in San Francisco netted four runs off four hits in 5.1 innings. Fellow righties are hitting just .176 off Medlen but southpaw bats have struck it rich, knocking the ball at a .286 BA.
Books initially set a price in Medlen’s first start against the Rockies at -140 (bet $140 to make $100) but quickly changed their tune. Against the Giants, the price was dramatically adjusted to +157 (bet $100 to make $157).
It will be righty, Max Scherzer (2-3, 3.38) who gets starting duties on Sunday. Having won two of his last three starts, Scherzer plus home field advantage equals books installing the Diamondbacks as much as a $1.70 favorite.
The good news for Arizona backers is the offense has given Scherzer close to five runs of support per start. The bad news is that the D-Backs are not too inspiring during Scherzer’s starts, taking the small 5-4 edge on the season. In five of his last six appearances to the mound, Scherzer has allowed no more then three runs.
The ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 p.m. EDT
ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball will conclude this week when L.A. attempts to cash in at the window as a $1.10 visiting underdog. The Cubbies are catching a -130 price tag (bet $130 to make $100) in this matchup while the total has yet to open up on the board.
The Dodgers’ success has been well documented without Manny Ramirez in the clubhouse, and with good reason. The lineup in the last 10 games has been scorching the ball, batting around for a .305 BA. Equally effective is the success from both sides of the plate. Right-handed hitters are cashing in with a .279 BA on the season while their left-handed counterparts have brought in a .273 BA. Pitchers are allowing 3.7 runs per game and the bullpen has held it down, earning itself a 3.38 ERA.
Newly acquired hurler, Eric Milton (1-0, 3.00) from Cincinnati will get the start as his last two appearances have been relatively solid outings. In a 7-1 win over an anemic Colorado club, Milton was able to hold the opponent to scoring just one run on seven hits in five innings.
The Cubs will go with Sean Marshall (3-3, 3.70) in Sunday’s fourth and final game of the series. In his last four trips to the dirt, Marshall has been able to bring home the money by going 3-1. Giving up 1.3 runs per game during the stretch has been just enough reason to get the job done. Because an offense giving their pitcher a mortal, three runs per game on the season isn’t the make or break figure in a win or loss.
The Cubs are just 3-9 in their last 12 games. A 3-1 performance in the last four could be indication of the club turning it around but it’s still too early for us to know for sure.
Books have not fooled around with Chicago, placing totals figures as low as seven to 7 ½ runs in four of the last eight games. Despite the bottom low totals, the Cubs have managed to hit the ‘under’ in four straight, making for a 9-2 record on the ‘under’ in the last 11. Chicago is also 7-3 on the ‘under’ in its last 10 home stands. That’s what batting .236 in the same stretch can do to a team.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings when playing in Wrigley Field.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers at Cubs
By Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (-138)
The Dodgers send the surgically repaired arm of Eric Milton (1-0 3.00) up against Sean Marshall (3-3 3.70) and the Cubs in the conclusion of their four-game series in Chicago.
Chicago's bat woke up, scoring seven runs in the 7-0 shutout of the Dodgers Saturday. The two teams traded 2-1 victories in the first two games of the series.
Ram up
The Dodgers haven’t missed a beat since Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games on May 7. He's eligible to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 3, 11 days before the All-Star game in St. Louis.
Speaking of the All-Star Game, MLB is growing uneasy with the fact that Manny is climbing the All-Star ballot. It would be uncomfortable for the league to see him named a starter to this year’s contest.
“The All-Star game is for the fans and I think if he got voted in, then it would be appropriate for him to play," said Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia’s manager and NL boss for this year’s event. "Once he serves his suspension, he's paid his penalty and he's just like every other player."
St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa doesn’t agree.
"The fans have a right to vote, but I think it's probably not fair to the guys who are out there playing," he said. "It's pretty tough to do what he did and then miss a good part of the season. But it's up to the fans."
And the countdown continues.
Ram down
The frustration being felt by Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez continues to amplify with each loss. Ramirez was hitting .364 BA with four home runs and 16 RBI when he dislocated his left shoulder May 8 diving to stop a line drive. His teammates continue to struggle through their worst losing streak in years.
''It's hard watching because I can't help. All I can do is watch,'' told reporters. ''Everyone is frustrated. We know we're better than we are playing right now. That's why everyone is frustrated.''
The All-Star third baseman is not expected back until after the All-Star break. The hole at third base has been glaring, not only for the lack of a true third baseman to fill in defensively but because Ramirez is one of the National League's best hitters.
With Ramirez sidelined, the loss of Mark DeRosa from last year's club has become especially noticeable. DeRosa hit 21 homers and drove in 87 runs for the Cubs in 2008 before being traded to Cleveland for three minor league pitchers in the off-season. This season, DeRosa has already hit seven homers and 30 RBI for the Indians.
Heading into this series, the Cubs were on a 6-10 slide since Ramirez was hurt.
Empty plates
Neither pitcher brings a lot to the table Sunday.
Eric Milton did not make one start in 2008 and only started six games in 2007. He picked up his first win since 2006 in his most recent start, a 7-1 victory at Colorado this past Tuesday.
The 11-year veteran lasted five innings, allowing one run on seven hits with no walks and three strikeouts. That win snapped a streak of eight straight team start losses for Milton, dating back to 2006. Milton is 3-10 in his last 13 team starts during the month of May.
Sean Marshall has struggled with the Cubs, dropping 13 of his last 16 team starts, including 10 of his last 12 at home. Marshall is also 4-8 with a 4.53 ERA in his career team starts during the month of May.
Looking back
Heading in to this four-game showdown, the Dodgers had won five of the previous six games in this series. They've dropped two of the first three games during this four-game set.
The Cubs have found solace at home on Sundays, where they are 14-3 in their last 17 tries.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (34-17) at Chicago Cubs (25-23)
The Dodgers conclude their four-game series at Wrigley Field when they hand the ball to southpaw Eric Milton (1-0, 3.00) while the Cubs counter with fellow lefty Sean Marshall (3-3, 3.70) in a nationally televised contest.
Chicago lost Thursday’s series-opener 2-1 but has come back to win the last two by scores of 2-1 on Friday and 7-0 on Saturday. The Cubs have followed up an eight-game losing skid by winning four of their last five, and they’re 12-4 in their last 16 at Wrigley Field. Lou Pineilla’s squad is on further upticks of 17-7 on Sunday, 36-17 at home against southpaw starters and 7-3 in the fourth game of a series.
Los Angeles has dropped consecutive games for just the third time this month and the first time since May 10 and 12. The Dodgers are still 57-29 in their last 86 games dating to last year, including 20-9 in the last 29. Additionally, Joe Torre’s squad is on runs of 5-2 on the highway, 9-5 against the N.L. Central, 20-8 against southpaw starters and 7-3 against teams with a winning record.
Despite losing the last two days, L.A. is still 6-3 in its last nine against the Cubs, including sweeping last year’s best-of-5 playoff series.
Milton earned his first major-league victory since September 2006 on Tuesday at Colorado, limiting the Rockies to a run on seven hits over five innings en route to a 7-1 win. In his first start with Los Angeles on May 16 in Florida, the veteran lefty pitched just four innings, yielding two runs on two hits and four walks, getting a no-decision in his team’s 6-3 loss.
Marshall dominated Pittsburgh on Tuesday, giving up just a run on four hits in five innings in a 6-1 home victory, improving to 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA at Wrigley Field this year. Marshall is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three trips to the mound overall, but despite this recent surge, with Marshall pitching the Cubs are still in funks of 7-19 overall, 1-6 at Wrigley, 3-13 versus winning teams, 1-5 against the N.L. West and 2-5 on Sunday.
Milton is 3-3 with a hefty 6.35 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs, including 3-1 with a 6.70 ERA in eight starts at Wrigley, where he’s surrendered 14 home runs in 43 innings. Meanwhile, in two career starts against the Dodgers (both in 2006), Marshall gave up nine runs (five earned) in 8 2/3 innings (5.19 ERA), with Chicago winning both games (5-4 on the road and 9-8 at home).
The Dodgers have topped the total in six straight Sunday games, while the Cubs are 5-1 “over” in their last six on Sunday. Otherwise, though, Chicago is on “under” pushes of 5-0 overall (all at home), 5-1 against the N.L. West, 20-8-1 with Marshall pitching, 5-1 when Marshall goes up against the N.L. West and 8-0 when Marshall works on Sunday.
Finally, the under is 10-4 in the last 14 Dodgers-Cubs clashes and 7-2 in the past nine battles in the Friendly Confines (3-0 in this series).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (28-22) at Toronto (29-23)
These A.L. East rivals wrap up a three-game series at the Rogers Centre, with the Blue Jays gunning for the sweep when they send rookie Ricky Romero (2-1, 3.08) to the hill opposite struggling Jon Lester (3-5, 6.07) in a battle of southpaws.
The Blue Jays snapped a nine-game losing skid with Friday’s 6-3 win over Boston, then rallied for Saturday’s 5-3 victory. Toronto has won six straight and 15 of 19 in Canada and is 45-21 at Rogers Centre dating to last year, and Cito Gaston’s club is also 5-1 in its last six on Sunday. However, the Jays remain in slumps of 2-8 against A.L. East foes and 2-6 against teams with a winning record.
Boston is just 3-6 in its last nine games and 3-8 in its last 11 on the road (2-4 on its current trip), but the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 13-6 against winning teams, 4-2 against the A.L. East and 10-4 versus left-handed starters.
The Red Sox are on a 6-3 roll against the Blue Jays, but they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 14 in Canada. In fact, the host has won all five meetings between these clubs this year and eight of 10 dating to 2008.
Lester’s inconsistency continued Monday at Minnesota as he pitched five scoreless innings before imploding in the sixth and he finished allowing five runs in six frames, losing 5-2. Lester is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in his last four starts (0-2, 7.71 ERA on the road).
With Lester pitching, Boston carries streaks of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on Sunday, 4-1 against A.L. East rivals and 13-3 in the third game of a series, but it is 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. On the season, Lester is 1-3 with a 7.04 ERA as a visitor. However, his best start in the past month came against the Blue Jays at home on May 21, allowing a run on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings en route to a 5-1 victory, improving to 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in six career starts vs. Toronto.
Romero went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts in April (2-0, 1.38 ERA in two home starts). However, he got roughed up in his return to the rotation Tuesday at Baltimore, giving up five runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss. Overall, Romero has 16 strikeouts against just five walks in 26 1/3 innings in the big leagues.
The over is 13-7 in Boston’s last 20 games against lefty starters, but otherwise the Sox are on “under” stretches of 12-3-1 overall (5-0 last five, all on the road), 8-1-1 on the road, 11-2-1 on Sunday, 7-2 against winning clubs and 4-1 when Lester works on Sunday. Likewise, Toronto is on “under” runs of 7-2 at home, 10-3 versus divisional foes (5-1 last six) and 4-0 in Romero’s first four major-league starts. Lastly, the under is on a 7-2 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright tries to match his career-high winning streak on Sunday when the St. Louis Cardinals conclude their three-game road set against the San Francisco Giants.
Wainwright has been outstanding in winning his last two games, allowing two runs and 10 hits with 16 strikeouts in 15 2-3 innings.
The right-hander claimed he wasn't at his best on Tuesday, striking out a career-high nine while yielding one run and five hits in an 8-1 win at Milwaukee. The right-hander even helped himself out with a solo homer in the fourth.
"My arm was just not in a position to throw a baseball correctly (Tuesday), but I just said I was going to fire it up there and let my defense work," said Wainwright, who has reached at least the seventh inning in each of his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 1.14 ERA.
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
The level of dominance Zack Greinke is showing hasn't been seen in the majors in more than four decades. The Chicago White Sox have experienced twice already how tough the Kansas City right-hander is.
Greinke looks to become the first nine-game winner in the majors Sunday afternoon as the Royals try to avoid being swept at home by the Chicago White Sox.
Greinke (8-1, 0.84 ERA) is tied with Toronto's Roy Halladay for the major league lead in wins. He leads the majors in ERA and complete games and has yet to give up a home run in 75 innings this season. Greinke pitched his fifth complete game Tuesday against Detroit, allowing one run and six hits while striking out eight in a 6-1 victory.
Greinke is the first pitcher since San Francisco's Juan Marichal in 1966 to have an ERA under 1.00 through his first 10 starts. Marichal was 9-0 with a 0.59 ERA over 92 innings pitched.
The White Sox were unable to figure Greinke out in two previous matchups. He's pitched 15 scoreless innings in two wins against them, allowing nine hits with 17 strikeouts. Greinke tossed a six-hitter in a 3-0 home win over Chicago on May 4.
"Best pitching performance I've seen in a long time by a major league pitcher," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said. "He's got great stuff."
Slumping
Mike Hampton, Houston Astros
Once among the best in the majors, Mike Hampton hasn't been effective enough to be involved in any pitching duels this season. Matching up with Paul Maholm and the Pittsburgh Pirates may give him a chance to revisit past glory.
Hampton takes the mound for the Houston Astros on Sunday seeking his eighth straight win against the Pirates, who hope Maholm can continue his success against their NL Central rivals in the finale of a three-game set.
After going 73-41 games with a 3.35 ERA from 1996-00, Hampton (2-4, 5.63 ERA) had a rough two-year stint with Colorado followed by two decent seasons with Atlanta before various injuries sidelined him for most of the past four years.
While he may be headed to playing in his first full season since 2004, the left-hander has been unreliable. Hampton has surrendered five runs or more in four of his last five starts. On Sunday, he gave up five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 5-0 loss to Texas.
"He's not consistent in the strike zone like he needs to be," Houston manager Cecil Cooper said.
Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies
Colorado hopes Jorge De La Rosa (0-5, 5.26) can show improvement after failing to get out of the fourth inning in each of his last two outings.
The left-hander lost a career-high six consecutive decisions over seven games from May 24-June 22, 2007. De La Rosa got closer to that dubious mark Monday, getting pulled after recording two outs in the fourth while giving up seven runs in the inning and seven total hits in a 16-6 loss to the Dodgers.
He was victimized by another big inning in his previous start on May 20, allowing six of seven runs in the fourth before exiting with two outs in a 12-4 loss at Atlanta.
"(On Monday) he did it for the first couple of innings, and that inning he just started overthrowing again," Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba told the club's official Web site. "When you start overthrowing, it's going to be ball one, ball two. Then you have to come very much right in the middle."
De La Rosa, who was 10-8 with a 4.92 ERA last year, didn't get the decision in his last start against the Padres on May 4, allowing six runs - three earned - and three hits in five innings of a 9-6 win at San Diego.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, June 1
New York Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EDT). The Yankees cap a four-game set at Cleveland with Joba Chamberlain(notes) (2-1) on the mound against Jeremy Sowers(notes) (1-2).
STARS
Saturday
— David Price(notes), Rays, struck out 11 to earn his first regular-season win in the majors and Tampa Bay beat Minnesota 5-2.
— Ryan Howard(notes), Phillies, hit his club-record eighth career grand slam and added a solo homer to help Philadelphia beat Washington 9-6.
— CC Sabathia(notes), Yankees, won in his return to Cleveland pitching seven strong innings in New York’s 10-5 win over the Indians.
— Albert Pujols(notes), Cardinals, burst out of his power slump with two homers to help St. Louis top San Francisco 6-2.
— Alex Rios(notes), Blue Jays, had four hits and drove in the go-ahead run to help Toronto beat Boston 5-3.
— Jeremy Hermida(notes), Marlins, homered and drove in four runs to help Josh Johnson(notes) improve to 6-0 in eight career starts against New York with Florida’s 7-3 victory.
— Jeff Karstens(notes), Pirates, pitched seven efficient innings to win for the first time in more than a month and Pittsburgh beat Houston 7-4.
STRUGGLING RED
The Cincinnati Reds have placed first baseman Joey Votto(notes) on the 15-day disabled list, citing stress-related issues linked to his recent struggles with an inner ear infection. Votto left Friday night’s game against Milwaukee after missing 12 starts and leaving two other games early during a 17-game stretch this month. He was expected to head back to Cincinnati, and Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said Saturday the timeline for his return is unclear.
SNAPPED
St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter(notes) saw his scoreless streak end at 21 1-3 innings when Fred Lewis(notes) doubled and scored on Uribe’s triple. Carpenter finished strong, allowing six hits with five strikeouts over six innings. He fell just short of Bob Gibson’s team record of five consecutive starts without allowing an earned run.
SLAMMING AWAY
Philly slugger Ryan Howard surpassed Mike Schmidt’s team-record with his eighth grand slam. The ball traveled 475 feet and became only the second ball to reach the third deck in right field. He also added a solo homer for his 19th career multihomer game.
WELCOME BACK
CC Sabathia didn’t allow the Cleveland Indians a hit until the fifth inning, working seven strong innings to beat his former team for the first time since signing a $161 million, seven-year contract with New York as a free agent in December. He allowed three runs, five hits and three walks, striking out eight in the Yankees’ 10-5 victory.
HIT MACHINE
Seattle’s Ichiro(notes) Suzuki was 1 for 4 with a first-inning single that extended his hitting streak to 23 games, equaling the second-longest of his big league career and putting him within two of the franchise record he set in 2007.
STELLAR IN THE FIELD
The New York Yankees played their 16th straight errorless game, one short of the major league record set by the Red Sox in June 2006, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
SPEAKING
“His command was so much better today. His stuff was really good, too. On Monday he had good stuff, he just didn’t have the command and he was pitching behind the count the whole time.”—Cubs manager Lou Piniella on starter Ryan Dempster(notes), who rebounded from an awful start to pitch seven sharp innings in Chicago’s 7-0 victory over Los Angeles.