Yankees at Red Sox Betting Preview
By THE PREZ
Not sure if you heard, but Yankees and Red Sox is a big rivalry. Really, just turn on ESPN at any point this weekend and the network’s talking heads will remind you. And of course this series finale is on ESPN Sunday night.
Since 2003, ESPN ratings for Yanks-Sox games have been at least 50 percent higher than for all of its MLB games, sometimes almost twice as high.
Series notes
New York dropped the season opener against Boston but then won the final two games of that series. In fact, the Yanks have dropped only one series all season – at the Angels – winning eight of their first nine series for only the fourth time in team history.
New York has won 11 of the past 13 meetings with Boston overall entering this weekend – remember that Boston won the first eight matchups last season.
These two teams are opposites in a way. As mentioned, the Yanks’ only series loss was to the Angels, but Boston entered this series off a four-game home sweep of Los Angeles. It was Boston’s first four-game sweep of the Halos at Fenway Park since 1967. In fact, the Red Sox’s last three series have been sweeps. They went 3-0 in Toronto and 0-3 in Baltimore before beating Los Angeles. New York enters off a sweep of those Orioles.
This matchup is just the sixth time since 2005 that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox have been in first place in the division entering a series held May 1 or later. Four of those instances came during Tampa Bay's 2008 AL pennant-winning season, and of course those Rays currently are in first in the AL East.
The Yankees bombed away in the opener of this series, touching up BoSox ace Josh Beckett for nine earned runs in 5.1 innings of work to cruise to a 10-3 victory. Phil Hughes continued his stellar pitching (1.69 ERA) after striking out seven and giving up two runs in 7.0 innings on the bump.
Game 2's outcome was similar with New York's pitching and defense limiting the Red Sox to three runs again. New York pounded out 17 hits in the 14-3 victory.
Both teams dipped into their bullpens Saturday as neither starter went longer than five innings because of a lenghty rain delay in the bottom of the fifth. The Yanks five relievers ate up 4.1 innings while Boston's five pitchers went 4.0 innings after Buchholz departed.
Infirmary report
New York continues to play without catcher Jorge Posada, who’s missed the last four games with a calf injury.
The injury bug continued to swarm for the Yanks after the team placed designated hitter Nick Johnson on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with an inflamed tendon in his right wrist.
"The card is a little short right now," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi. "It is frustrating, but no one is going to feel sorry for (you)."
Boston and New York play two more games next week in the Bronx and then won’t meet again until August.
Surprising Yankee stars
Take a quick guess at who the two leading Yankee hitters are entering this series. Derek Jeter? Alex Rodriguez? Posada? Try second baseman Robinson Cano and outfielder Brett Gardner.
Cano has thrived hitting No. 5 in the lineup, replacing the departed Hideki Matsui in that spot behind A-Rod. Cano enters the weekend third in the AL in batting at .362, leads the team in homers, RBIs and runs, and he became the first player in Yankees history to hit .400 with eight home runs in the opening month (to be named AL Player of the Month). The last major leaguer to achieve the feat was some guy named Barry Bonds, who hit .472 with 10 homers in April 2004 with the Giants.
Gardner, meanwhile, has helped fill the hole of the injured Curtis Granderson, who might be out the rest of this month (Granderson tore up the Red Sox in the openings series).
Gardner is sixth in the AL in batting and second in steals. He leads all Yankee regulars with a .430 on-base percentage. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t expected to play every day. In fact, it was expected that Gardner would for sure sit against left-handers, but he is hitting .370 against them.
Probable pitchers
New York starts A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99), who is off to the best start of his 12-year career. Last time out he struck out eight Orioles and allowed just an unearned run and five hits in 7 1/3 innings – he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 19 innings. Burnett has the fewest walks of any Yankee starter, which is notable because he led the AL in walks last season when he won just two of his first nine starts.
“He’s just really locked in,” Girardi said.
Burnett took a no-decision against the Red Sox on April 6 at Fenway Park, allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits in five innings. He is 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Boston.
Boston counters with lefty Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93), who rather amazingly turns into a Cy Young candidate whenever the calendar turns to May but is usually terrible before that month.
Lester has actually had three good starts in a row (10 hits, one run in 20 2/3 innings), allowing one run on five hits and striking out five against the Angels last time out (on 120 pitches, which is an awful lot this early in the year). The lefty has thrived at Fenway Park throughout his career, going 24-6 with a 3.26 ERA. Lifetime against the Yankees, Lester is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA in nine starts.
Pitching has been the main difference between New York and Boston this season. The Yanks enter the weekend fifth in the majors with a 3.45 team ERA while the Sox are 23rd at 4.68.
"We haven't quite clicked, but we're better than our record. And we will be better,” said Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek.
Trendy solutions
- The over is 15-5-2 in New York's last 22 road games and 7-3 in the last 10 games of this series.
- The Yankees are 12-2 SU in the last 14 games of this matchup.
- The over is 11-5-1 at Fenway Park this season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (17-12) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets shoot for a three-game sweep of the Giants and their 10th straight home win, but they’ll have to face two-time N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.70 ERA), while New York counters with lefty Oliver Perez (0-2, 4.05) at Citi Field.
One day after catcher Rod Barajas hit a walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to give the Mets a 6-4 victory Friday, backup catcher Henry Blanco smacked a walk-off solo shot in the 11th inning Saturday to secure a 5-4 win. New York has won nine straight home games for the first time since 2006, and it is on further positive runs of 13-5 overall, 9-3 against right-handed starters and 6-0 versus the N.L. West.
San Francisco arrived in the Big Apple after scoring a three-game sweep in Florida to start the week, and despite suffering heartbreaking losses in the first two games of this series, the Giants are still 9-5 in their last 14 games. However, they’ve lost five of their last six in the third game of a series.
The Mets have now won 12 of 15 against San Francisco, including eight of the last 10 battles in Queens.
Lincecum is coming off back-to-back no-decisions in extra-inning games. On April 28 against the Phillies, he allowed two runs in 8 1/3 innings and took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, but the bullpen couldn’t get the final two outs and San Francisco lost 7-6 in 11 innings. Then on Tuesday in Florida, the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in seven innings, with the Giants prevailing 9-6 in 12 innings.
Over his last two starts, Lincecum has logged 24 strikeouts while walking just two in 15 1/3 innings. Also, going back to the final weekend of the 2009 season, San Francisco is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Lincecum has made three road starts this year (all Giants wins), going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (three runs, 13 hits, three walks and 27 strikeouts in 20 innings). However, he’s struggled in three career starts against the Mets, going 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, with San Francisco losing all three games.
Perez is coming off a strong performance at Cincinnati, yielding just two runs on six hits and four walks in six innings, but the Mets fell 3-2 in 11 innings. The southpaw has held his last four opponents to eight earned runs in 21 innings (3.43 ERA), yet the Mets have just one victory during this stretch. In fact, New York is 1-5 in his last six outings overall and 0-6 in his last six on Sunday, but the Mets have won seven of Perez’s last eight starts against N.L. West opponents.
At home this year, Perez is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts, and since Citi Field opened at the start of last season, he’s 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 home contests. Additionally, Perez is winless in nine career starts against San Francisco, going 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA. The Giants are 7-2 in those nine games.
The Giants have followed up a 13-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three games, but they still carry low-scoring trends of 5-2 against left-handed starters, 27-10-2 on the road against lefties, 30-12-2 in the third game of a series and 5-1 on Sunday. However, with Lincecum on the bump, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road and 4-0 in the third game of a series.
New York is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in the third game of a series, and with Perez pitching the over is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 6-0-1 against the N.L. West and 9-2 in the third game of a series. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between the Giants and Mets have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-8) at Boston (15-16)
Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA) looks to continue his hot pitching and help the Red Sox avoid a three-game sweep when he matches up against unbeaten Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99) in a nationally televised contest at Fenway Park.
Mark Teixeira blasted three home runs and New York continued its dominance of the Red Sox with a 14-3 rout on Saturday. Since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, the Yankees are on a 13-2 roll against their archrivals, winning the last four in a row this season (all at Fenway). Also, the defending champs are 6-2 in their last eight contests in Beantown.
New York is now riding a six-game winning streak, and it has won nine of its 10, with all nine wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 21 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 27 of their 29 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. Joe Girardi’s team is on further runs of 40-15 overall, 44-14 against divisional foes, 45-20 against left-handed starters and 50-23 on Sunday.
Boston is still 11-7 in its last 18 games, going 8-4 at Fenway during this stretch. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-18 against the A.L. East (0-5 last five) and 3-19 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600.
Burnett is coming off back-to-back gems against the Orioles, allowing one unearned run on eight hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings, rolling to wins of 4-0 (road) and 4-1 (home). The Arkansas native has yielded just six runs in his last five outings covering 35 2/3 innings (1.51 ERA).
The Yankees are 5-1 in Burnett’s six starts this season, 12-2 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-0 in his last five on Sunday. Four of his six starts this season have come on the road, and he’s 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA. His first road outing this year came on April 6 in Boston, and Burnett gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings, getting a no-decision in the Yankees’ 6-4 win.
For his career, Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Red Sox, but since signing with New York last year, he’s allowed 26 runs (23 earned) in five starts spanning 25 1/3 innings (8.17 ERA). All 26 runs have been surrendered in four games (17 2/3 innings) at Fenway Park (11.72 ERA).
Lester struggled in his first three starts, giving up 15 runs in 16 innings in losses to the Yankees (6-4), Twins (5-2) and Rays (7-1). However, in his last three trips to the hill, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts against just eight walks. However, Lester is still just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four home starts, with the Red Sox splitting those contests.
With Lester starting, Boston is on positive runs of 60-29 overall, 28-6 at home, 21-7 in the third game of a series and 12-5 on Sunday. However, the Sox have lost three straight games to the Yankees behind Lester, who is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Bronx Bombers.
New York is on “over” runs of 16-5-2 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 on Sunday, 6-2 with Burnett starting, 6-1 with Burnett working on the road and 6-2-1 when he faces the A.L. East. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in six of eight at home and five of seven on Sunday, but behind Lester, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-1 at home and 5-0 on Sunday.
Finally, the over has cashed in four of five meetings between these teams this year (all in Boston), and eight of the last nine clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total. Going back further, the over is 40-19-1 in the last 60 Yanks-Sox battles at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 5/9
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs (-135) @ Reds with a total of 8
Orlando Cabrera is 4-for-6 off Dempster;
Ramon Hernandez is 3-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI off Dempster;
Scott Rolen is 3-for-8 with 2 RBI off Dempster since '05.
This line is frighteningly low, though really, all 3 of the lines in this series have been much lower than expected. The Cubs pounded out hits like nobody's business in the opener, but something tells me this low price on Dempster is too good to be true. Leake walked 7 Cubs when he faced them earlier this year, but allowed just 1 run in a quality start. Dempster is off to a solid start, but his team isn't winning his games. Slight lean to Cincinnati, just because of the screwy line.
Giants (-205) @ Mets with a total of 7
Mark DeRosa is 2-for-3 off Perez with a HR and 3 RBI;
Bengie Molina is 3-for-6 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Perez.
Tim Lincecum actually has poor career numbers against the Mets. Of course, there were some different guys on those teams, and Timmy is 4-0 this year with a 1.70 ERA. That also means that there's no value on the Freak. Can we trust Oliver Perez? I doubt it. He could go 7 innings and allow a run, or walk 8 guys and get yanked after 3 rough innings. This is Mets or nothing. Probably nothing.
Braves @ Phillies (-200) with a total of 9.5
Chipper Jones is 9-for-22 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Hamels;
Brian McCann is 11-for-30 with a HR and 10 RBI off Hamels since '05;
Jayson Werth has a HR in 3 AB against Kawakami.
I just can't get over Hamels being a -200 favorite against teams not from Pittsburgh. I know the Braves have been struggling like crazy, but Hamels isn't an ace. He's just not good enough to be -200 against other marginal clubs. Still, Kawakami is a perfectly awful 0-5, 5.47 ERA this year so far. Pass you very much.
Marlins @ Nationals (-140) with a total of 9
Jorge Cantu is 3-for-10 with a HR and 4 RBI off Hernandez since '05;
Wes Helms is 3-for-8 off Hernandez since '05;
Chris Coghlan, struggling in '10, is a perfect 3-for-3 off Livan.
Something a little screwy about this line, too. Maybe I'm just getting crazy, here, but to see the Nats as a -140 favorite against a starter that has a lifetime 3-0, 2.87 ERA mark against them, well, it just raises a red flag. Right now, this looks like a monster value on the Marlins, but such is the beauty of watching line movement. Let's keep an eye on this sucker.
Cardinals (-205) @ Pirates with a total of 7.5
Jason LaRue is 5-for-13 off Maholm with a HR;
Albert Pujols is 15-for-25 with a HR and 4 RBI off Maholm since '05;
Ronny Cedeno is 4-for-11 off Wainwright;
Garrett Jones is 4-for-6 off Wainwright;
Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-6 off Wainwright.
Adam Wainwright might be the best pitcher in the League, consistently, but strangely, has a lifetime 5.26 ERA against the Pirates. Maholm can't get Pujols, but has a 3-3, 3.09 ERA against the Cards in his career. There might be some value on the home dog, here, or potentially a home underdog RL? This is a longshot type of play, but something to consider.
Padres @ Astros (-120) with a total of 7.5
Adrian Gonzalez is 6-for-15 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Oswalt since '05;
Carlos Lee is 5-for-8 with 2 RBI off Correia;
Pedro Feliz is 3-for-5 off his former teammate;
Geoff Blum is 3-for-9 with a HR and 5 RBI off Correia.
Roy Oswalt against the Padres as a -120 favorite? My, how the times have changed. I can't help but chuckle a little, since this is actually a fair line. The Astros can't hit, and they only seem to be getting worse. The Padres can absolutely pitch, and they seem to be able to scratch across enough runs to get the job done. Pretty fair line, I'd leave it alone.
Rockies (-135) @ Dodgers with a total of 7
Dexter Fowler is 3-for-8 off Kershaw;
Todd Helton is 4-for-12 off Kershaw;
Matt Kemp is 9-for-22 with a HR and 2 RBI off Jimenez;
Russ Martin is 8-for-22 with 5 RBI off Jimenez.
This should be a fun one! Ubaldo Jimenez, a perfect 6-0 on the season and with a no-no in his belt already, takes aim at the Dodgers, and young phenom Clayton Kershaw. Jimenez has actually given up a few runs to the Dodgers in his career, going 5-3 with a 5.84 ERA. I think the Over might actually be the sneaky play, but Jimenez has messed with my head before, so avoiding is also a distinct possibility.
Brewers @ D'backs (-158) with a total of 10.5
Chris Young is 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Narveson.
Not much to go on in this one, and a wildly high line for Ian Kennedy, though his 3.65 ERA on this young season has been a nice bright spot for the D'backs. Arizona can hit, and the thought, I assume, is that they'll put up a few runs against Narveson. The question with Milwaukee-related baseball is always whether they'll score 15 runs, or 0. It makes them tough to back, and though this dog price is quite tempting, I'm not sure I can deal with the Brew Crew just yet.
American League
Tigers @ Indians (-118) with a total of 8.5
Talbot is rolling along - who would have thought we'd be saying that in mid-May? He's 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA, and he's been pretty effective every time out. Yes, he allowed 5 runs to the Jays, but he went 8 innings, and got burned by the long ball. If the weather stays frigid in the Midwest, the ball isn't going to travel as well, which makes Talbot a decent option. Of course, seeing the Indians as a favorite is always a bit disconcerting, and Scherzer's number are inflated from getting pounded by the Twins, repeatedly. Probably an afternoon pass for me.
Blue Jays (-123) @ White Sox with a total of 8
Adam Lind is 3-for-8 with a HR and 4 RBI off Floyd.
Ricky Romero is pitching pretty well, and Floyd isn't - there's the explanation for the Jays being a road favorite. Floyd is just 1-3 this season with a 6.89 ERA, and he is a career 0-4, 7.23 pitcher against the Jays. It almost looks too easy to fade the Sox, but you absolutely have to lean that way until Floyd gets his act together. Line movement could seal or break this one.
Orioles @ Twins with a total of N/A
We don't know who's going on the Baltimore side, but we know the line is going to be inflated for the Twins. Blackburn, though, is 0-2 with an 8.38 lifetime ERA against the Orioles, who seem to be playing a tiny bit better, if still not quite "good." Again, this will likely be a bit of a longshot, but the value will probably be on the Baltimore side. A pass is probably on the docket, especially since we'll apparently not have a ton of time to analyze the pitching matchup, but give the O's credit for playing tough lately.
Royals @ Rangers (-165) with a total of 10
David DeJesus is 5-for-7 off Feldman with a HR and 3 RBI;
Ryan Garko is 2-for-5 with a HR off Hochevar;
Michael Young is a perfect 3-for-3 off Hochevar with a HR.
Feldman is regressing. He's a fun fade candidate, in general, but not so sure about against Kansas City. He's 2-0, 2.48 against the Royals, and DeJesus is really the only KC player with success against him. Hochevar has nice numbers against the Rangers, so the value is probably with the Royals, but since we're all about low volume, it might be a near-miss. That being said, I wouldn't argue with someone making a move on KC.
Rays (-150) @ A's with a total of 8
Ryan Sweeney was 3-for-10 off Shields before this year;
Ben Zobrist was 4-for-6 off Braden before 2010;
Gabe Kapler was 3-for-7 before their meeting this season.
These two pitchers faced off roughly two week ago, and Braden got clobbered. He allowed 6 runs in 4 innings in a game the A's eventually lost 10-3. Shields went 7 strong frames, allowed 2 runs (1 earned), and earned himself another "W." I tend to like rematches in baseball, since the losing team usually comes out with a better mentality the second time, especially if the game is at home. I'd look at the A's, here, as a nice home dog.
Angels @ Mariners (-120) with a total of 7.5
Hideki Matsui is 1-for-2 with a HR and 3 RBI off Vargas;
Juan Rivera is 3-for-4 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Vargas;
Ichiro is batting .304 off Santana with a HR since '05.
Something about this game is yelling low-scoring pitchers' duel, but I don't know exactly what that is. Neither pitcher is dominating, though both are throwing the ball relatively well. Neither team is raking, though both are hitting the ball alright. Of course, I felt that same way about the game yesterday, so who knows. I don't like either side, that much I know for sure, so it's a totals play or nothing.
Yankees @ Red Sox (-119) with a total of 9
Marco Scutaro was 6-for-19 off Burnett before this year;
Derek Jeter is 9-of-24 off Lester with 2 RBI.
These two guys faced off in the first series of the year, and neither pitched very well. Burnett allowed 3 earned in 5 innings, and Lester allowed 4 earned in 5 frames. Burnett has, historically, been decent against the Sox, and likewise with Lester. It was each of their first starts, so not much can be made of it. Since then, Burnett has been, arguably, the best pitcher in the AL. The Yanks are a little banged up, but they're still beating up on lesser teams, and have taken it to Boston in each of the first two in this series. The price is a little inflated because the Sox are going to be looking to avoid the sweep, but damn if the Yanks aren't rolling right now. Probably a pass.