Sunday's MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Sunday interleague card wraps up with the encore presentation of Stephen Strasburg, coming off his 14-strikeout performance in his Major League debut against the Pirates. Strasburg and the Nationals are in Cleveland to battle the Indians, while the rest of the card is filled with plenty of other interesting pitching matchups. We'll start by the lake with a game that many people would have brushed over until last week.
Nationals at Indians - 1:05 PM EST
Washington is getting plenty of notice recently thanks to the impressive debut by Strasburg this past Tuesday against Pittsburgh. The former top pick will be tested for the first time on the road as the Nats and Indians finish up their series at Progressive Field.
Strasburg (1-0, 2.57 ERA) struck out 14 and walked none in a 5-2 home victory over the Pirates in his first big-league start as a $2.00 favorite. The 21-year old did face the least productive offense in baseball (198 runs), while the Pirates rank second-to-last in batting average (.237). Strasburg doesn't really step up in class when he faces a Cleveland offense (.247, 251 runs) that has had its share of struggles this season. However, the Tribe has plated 26 runs in their last three games, all victories.
The obvious question coming into this game is whether or not Strasburg can once again silence the opposition in his second time out. Looking back at several young pitchers over the last few years which made their second career start on the road, the results are mixed.
Strasburg is listed as a $2.00 favorite once again at Cleveland, marking the sixth occurrence this season that a road team is laying at least $2.00. It is usually not recommended to back these teams since a loss is detrimental, but these clubs are 4-1 this season with the lone loss coming on Thursday when the Orioles upset the Yankees.
The Indians will counter with lefty David Huff (2-7, 5.46 ERA), who is going for his first win in four starts. Huff, a San Diego native like Strasburg, allowed three unearned runs in six innings his last time out as the Indians fell to the Red Sox, 3-2. The southpaw hasn't been bad at home, owning a 3.12 ERA and 2-2 mark at Progressive Field.
Since moving to Washington from Montreal in 2005, the Nationals have been listed as a road favorite in interleague play just once. The Orioles beat the Nats at Camden Yards, 3-2 back in 2006, as Washington was laying $1.05. The Indians are 5-10 the last 15 interleague games at home dating back to 2008, including a 2-2 mark this season.
Phillies at Red Sox - 1:35 PM EST
Boston has dominated this series over the previous three seasons, taking seven of the last 10 meetings over Philadelphia. The Red Sox blasted the Phillies on Friday night, 12-2, the third straight win of at least five runs against the reigning NL champions.
Cole Hamels (5-5, 3.98 ERA) has lost three straight decisions after a three-game winning streak in early May. The Phillies' lefty took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of a 3-1 home loss to the Padres in his last start, his fourth quality outing in five appearances. Hamels has turned into a terrific 'under' play recently, cashing 'unders' in six of his previous seven starts. The Red Sox were shut down by Hamels in the interleague opener this season, 5-1, as the southpaw delivered seven strong innings and struck out eight.
Boston sends out veteran Tim Wakefield (2-4, 5.48 ERA), who silenced the Philadelphia bats the last time he saw the Phillies. Wakefield tossed eight scoreless innings on May 23, scattering five hits, the third consecutive victory over Philadelphia since 2006. The knuckleballer hasn't been solid at home (0-3, 7.29 ERA), while allowing 20 hits and 15 earned runs in his last two starts at Fenway Park, both losses to the A's and Royals.
The Phillies have dropped five straight games as a road underdog, as Philadelphia owns a dreadful 2-8 mark the last ten contests on the highway. The Red Sox have won six straight interleague starts made by Wakefield, dating back to June 2008.
Braves at Twins - 2:10 PM EST
A battle of division leaders takes place at Target Field in Minnesota with the Braves concluding a ten-game road trip. The Twins won a close one on Friday night, 2-1, as Francisco Liriano outdueled Tim Hudson on the mound.
Kevin Slowey (7-3, 3.45 ERA) takes the hill for the Twins, coming off three fantastic starts. The righty has given up two earned runs his last three trips to the mound, with Minnesota going 2-1. Slowey doesn't walk many (15 all season), while the Twins are 5-2 in his seven home starts this season. Minnesota has dominated interleague when Slowey starts, owning a 10-2 mark in his career, including 7-0 at home.
The Braves trot out Kris Medlen (3-1, 3.21 ERA), who left his last start at Arizona with a sprained left shoulder followed a collision at home plate. Medlen is due to take the mound on Sunday, as Atlanta has won all three of his road starts since taking over for the injured Jair Jurrjens. The righty has gone into the seventh inning only twice in six starts, while not throwing more than 97 pitches in any outing.
Atlanta owns a 6-10 road record in interleague play since 2008, including a 2-5 mark since the start of last season. Minnesota has been nearly automatic at home against NL competition in this same span, winning 17 of the last 22 in interleague.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: White Sox at Cubs
By MARC LAWRENCE
A pair of cross-town rivals battle under the Sunday night lights on ESPN when the White Sox taxi over to Wrigley Field to take on the Cubs on the North Side of Chicago. Let’s take a look at this matchup.
Sub central standard
On the heels of the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup, the Cubs and White Sox play in 2010 pales in comparison with both teams currently sitting mid-pack in their divisions, a collective 16.5 games behind American League Central leading Minnesota and National League Central pacesetter Cincinnati.
“I guess we’re a hockey town now,” said White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf. “It’s very disappointing. It’s frustrating. We thought we were good.”
The Cubs feel the same way. Manager Lou Piniella expressed his disgust on the discouraging season when he started benching his regulars.
“All we’re trying to do is create a little sense of urgency here,” Pinella said.
Meanwhile, tension grows between the front offices and the coaches.
“Some changes need to take place,” says White Sox GM Kenny Williams.
Sounds like it could be another summer of disarray for these blasé ballers from the Windy City.
Rumor central
The Cubs’ clubhouse is rumored to be a disaster right now. Word is the Latin players - specifically third baseman Aramis Ramirez and pitcher Carlos Zambrano - have completely walled themselves off from everyone.
Ramirez has completely shut down, refuses to practice, and is barely willing to take the field for games. His.168 batting average belies a $16,750,000 salary.
Despite all his struggles, the team hasn’t turned on outfielder Alphonso Soriano, who continues to work hard despite his recent woes. But the team is supposedly turning on Ramirez, because he doesn’t, and doesn’t see a problem with it.
'We haven't been playing well. We know it,'' Xavier Nady said. ''We've got to obviously turn things around sooner or later, or it's going to be a long year.''
My cup spilleth over
Making matters worse, from a public relations standpoint, these two teams are playing for the inaugural BP Crosstown Cup. The timing couldn’t be worse.
Fans at Wrigley Field let out loud boos Friday afternoon when the Cup was presented before the series opener Friday afternoon between the Cubs and the White Sox.
Another three-game series at U.S. Cellular Field is scheduled for June 25-27. The Cup goes to the series winner, or the team that takes the final game if they split the six games.
Unless an overflow of pitching and hitting suddenly oozes for one team or the other, the fans could care less about who wins the not-so-coveted BP Cup.
Hose job
Jake Peavy has made it clear that if it's a full rebuilding mode the White Sox are looking for they better count him out.
"I just want a chance to win," Peavy said. "I believe it can happen here. I'm excited to be in the situation. Nothing's changed just because we haven't played well.
"Obviously, something's got to give. We've underachieved as a team, as a whole organization."
Meanwhile, Gordon Beckham, voted the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year by his peers, continues to struggle with a .204 average, with one home run and 12 RBIs entering Friday's series opener.
"When he comes out of this, it's only going to make him better," said Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, White Sox television play-by-play man, who has closely observed Beckham for the past two seasons.
Beckham went 112 at-bats without an extra-base hit, before a double against Detroit on June 9, and had gone 170 at-bats since his lone home run of the year. He also led the White Sox with 38 strikeouts entering Friday.
"There have been a lot of rock bottoms this year. I'm like you, kind of out of answers. If there are any, come and let us know,” pleaded Paul Konerko, on all that has gone wrong for the Sox so far this season.
By the numbers
Entering this series, the Cubs were only 12-12 this season in games in which they surrendered three or fewer runs. The Cubs have 14 one-run losses and seven more by two runs.
With Friday’s win, the White Sox improved to 8-2 in its last 10 games at Wrigley.
Cubs starter Ted Lilly takes an 8-2 career team start mark against the Pale Horse into this contest. His team is also 11-1 in his last 12 home team starts during June.
The White Sox are 4-16 in Gavin Floyd’s last 20 road starts.
Sunday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
No disrespect to Johan Santana but he’s no longer the Mets’ No. 1 starter. That title belongs to Mike Pelfrey. The lanky righthander has allowed just five runs over his last five starts and the Mets have won eight of his last 10 starts.
"He expects to go out there and dominate and that's what he's been doing," Mets third baseman David Wright said of Pelfrey after a one-run, eight-inning outing against the Padres.
Pelfrey is kind to total bettors too. The under has cashed in four of his last five appearances.
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays
There’s not much not to like about the Rays’ starting rotation. The unit boast quality arms one through five including second-year hurler Jeff Niemann.
Many wondered whether the 6-9 righty could equal his success from 2009 when he went 13-6 with an ERA under 4.00. Those doubts no longer exist after his first 12 starts this season.
Niemann is 6-0 with a 2.48 ERA and is fresh off a complete game shutout. He’s allowed more than three runs just once this year and the Rays are 10-1 the last 11 times he’s taken the bump.
Slumping
Kevin Millwood, Baltimore Orioles
When the rebuilding Orioles signed Millwood this offseason, the hope was that the grizzled veteran would set a good example for the younger arms on the staff.
That plan hasn’t worked out too well so far. The former Texas ace is 0-7 and has given up 12 runs in his last 11.1 innings.
"I'm just not throwing the ball where I want to. I need to locate to pitch well," Millwood told the Associated Press after a recent bad outing vs. the Yankees. "With five walks, I'm definitely not where I want to be, and some the balls they're hitting are in bad spots."
MLB RoundUp For 6/13
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals (-165) @ Diamondbacks with a total of 9
Matt Holliday is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Jackson before 2010;
Yadier Molina was 3-for-3 off Jackson before 2010, with a HR;
Kelly Johnson was 4-for-7 with a HR off Carpenter before 2010.
Chris Carpenter is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA against the Diamondbacks, so he has absolutely no issue taking care of business against Arizona. Edwin Jackon is 0-2 with a 3.80 ERA against the Cards, and went 8 innings against them earlier this year, surrendering 4 runs. Jackson is definitely a workhorse, though I guess both guys are, but I don't think this is the right time to try to grab at the home dog. Leans: None
Interleague Play
Astros @ Yankees (-325) with a total of 9
Hah, I'm actually surprised this is only -325. You guys know the rule - a quarter unit on the underdog when the price is over 300. It'll probably lose here, but when you only need to win 25% of the time, a bad hop grounder could mean 3x your bet. Leans: None, but you guys know the drill on lines this huge
Flash: http://Pirates @ Tigers (-200) with a total of 9
This line is, again, too high to mess with, especially considering the Tigers do win series at home, and the Pirates haven't won a road game since 1998. Since it's the weekend, let's just agree to save our strength for games with some true value. Leans: None
Nationals (-205) @ Indians with a total of 8
David Huff is very bad, but the hype around Strasburg is even greater in this one than his debut! Strasburg was a -200 home favorite facing the Pirates, and now he's a -200 road favorite facing the Indians, not only a better team than Pittsburgh, a hotter team, and in a different venue. This, to me, would be like seeing Strasburg as a -245 or -250 home favorite in his opener, so we can safely assume his price has gone up almost 50 cents. If Huff wasn't such a turd, I'd think the Indians were a decent value, but heck, let's let Strasburg win 2-3 more starts, then fade him when he clears -300. Leans: None
Royals @ Reds (-120) with a total of 8.5
Orlando Cabrera is 8-for-24 with 3 RBI off Greinke;
Jonny Gomes is 3-for-5 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Greinke.
Who would have thought that the one guy on the Royals, come mid-June, that simply could not buy a win would be Greinke? To his discredit, his ERA is up over 4, and that record of 1-8 might be better with some run support, but he's not dominating like he did last year. 3 of Greinke's 4 recent starts have been downright bad, so he's losing focus, and guys are taking advantage. I do believe he'll have a slight edge going against guys that haven't seen a ton of him, and at this price, I think you have to at least consider taking the established ace against a guy named after a Simpsons character...well, almost. Leans: Royals
Mets (-150) @ Orioles with a total of 8
I know a ton of people are going to be tempted to take the Orioles, and honestly, it's probably a pretty good value, but I still can't trust this team. Millwood is 7-5 with a 3.48 lifetime ERA against the Mets, but it's been a while, and Pelfrey has been awfully dominant this year. I could see the Orioles leaving 12 men on base and scoring 1 run, and that scares me. Leans: None
Phillies @ Red Sox (-125) with a total of 9.5
This is an intriguing match-up, in that Hamels went 7 innings of 1-run ball against the Red Sox when these teams met in Philadelphia, and Wakefield went 8 shutout innings. That being said, the windy, humid weather was perfect for Wakefield in that start, and his knuckler was really moving all over the place. Since then, the Phils have started to hit a little better, and the Red Sox are still crushing the ball. I wonder about this high total, whether it's set on Wakefield's season numbers, or whether it's set based on the Sox recent hot hitting. I really want to try to find a way to back Hamels in his semi-resurgent year, though Wakefield is coming off a nice start against the Indians, too. Leans: Phillies
Marlins @ Rays (-200) with a total of 8.5
Not a ton of data to go on, here, and the large line makes me think this one is a stay-away. I don't really much care for Volstad. He rarely goes deep in games, and at 3-6 with a 4.48 ERA, I just don't think he's much more than a back of the rotation arm. Niemann is a stud, and Tampa has the best record in baseball. Leans: None
Braves @ Twins (-145) with a total of 9
Another game without a ton of statistical data, though just from checking the starters, I'm thinking this might be another pass. Here's why: Kris Medlen has been solid since moving into the starting role, but he's clearly starting to regress. His last start lasted just 5 innings, and the D'backs got to him for 4 runs, and we all know the Twins can rake. I think Medlen goes 5-6 again, and gets tagged for 3 runs. Slowey, despite not being a real horse, seems to be a nice charm for the Twins, as the team is 8-4 when he's on the hill. He's been pitching exceptionally well, of late, which means he's trending up. I don't like to fade a guy on a roll, like this, and I'm not sure I can bring myself to lay the -145 against the Braves, who aren't exactly pushovers. Leans: Twins
Rangers @ Brewers (-145) with a total of 8.5
Again, no real data, as I believe the current rosters have a combined 1 AB against the opposing starter. As far as trends go, both starters are coming off nice games, with Colby Lewis shutting down the Mariners for the third time this year, and Gallardo going 7 strong against the Cubbies. Yovani is probably the more consistent starter among the two, and with Lewis facing the Brewers, there would seem to be a lot of big uppercuts. If they connect, the Brewers can get a few runs at once; if not, could be a 0-0 ballgame. Tough call, here. Leans: Under
Blue Jays @ Rockies (-180) with a total of 10
As we work our way through this Interleague Sunday, I'm reminded of how many mismatches the MLB can pile up on a given day. Another line way up over -150, and another time that we can either play the underdog or nothing. Francis is coming off a strong start against the Astros, and I get the feeling he's starting to settle back in. He had a great start, then slipped back, and now this, to me, looks like he's finally getting healthy. I wouldn't mess around with Litsch, and amazingly, I'd probably play a home RL before taking the dog, here. That doesn't mean take it, I'm just saying. Leans: None
Athletics @ Giants (-205) with a total of 7.5
Good grief, another mismatch. Mazzaro, to his credit, is coming off a nice 5-inning effort against the Angels, where he only allowed 1 run, but Matt Cain is absolutely out of his mind, right now, and this price reflects that. Cain has gone 34 innings in his last 4 starts, and has allowed a grand total of 1 earned run, and 1 more unearned. That is downright nuts! He's just not a guy to fade until he has to face the Padres again, and we'll get all sorts of value, there. The Giants are hitting better, they're going to want this game against the cross-Bay rivals, and this is another one where I'd avoid the underdog. I don't like the home RL either. It lowers the price, sure, but we know how many 1-run games Matt Cain has gotten into over his career. Leans: Giants
Mariners @ Padres (-135) with a total of 6.5
Clayton Richard is making the Padres look very smart for disposing of Jake Peavy. He's coming off back-to-back outings where he allowed just 1 run to the Mets in each, and he's given up more than 3 earned runs just once all season long. He also went 7 frames of 1-run ball against the Mariners when these teams met up North. King Felix continues to be a bit of a enigma this year, as he went 8 innings in 2 straight brilliant starts, then gave up 7 runs to the Rangers his last time out. He allowed 2 runs to the Padres in a losing effort previously, and I guess the big question is, "Can any of us believe that the King is a +125 dog to Clayton Richard?" He still has the stuff to dominate, so there's definitely reason to peer in his direction, but Richard's 2-0 record and sub-1 ERA against the Mariners make it a tough trigger to pull. Leans: Mariners
Angels @ Dodgers (-130) with a total of 8
James Loney is 5-for-14 off Weaver with an RBI;
Russ Martin is 7-for-17 with a HR off Weaver.
Let's get one thing out of the way - yes, Jered Weaver pitched a no-hitter against the Dodgers, and no, he didn't win the game. Weaver has always been solid against LA, going 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA against the Dodgers in his career, and this is about where I thought this line would come out. Still, as discussed on the podcast, and as witnessed in Friday night's beatdown, the Angels don't fear the Dodgers, and they have plenty of fans that travel the 30 miles to see their red-clad boys in LA-proper. This is a gift, in my opinion, if only the Angels hadn't won the first 2 games. Leans: Angels
White Sox @ Cubs (-160) with a total of N/A
Paul Konerko is 4-for-7 with 3 HR and 4 RBI off Lilly;
Mark Kotsay is 4-for-6 with a HR off Lilly since '05.
Gavin Floyd is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Cubs, so not much to go on, there, and he just continues to stink it up in 2010. I know all the stats about Floyd in June, and he did finally have a decent start against the Tigers (who he always dominates), but I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him, completely. Lilly is 5-2 against the White Sox, but that career 5.94 ERA tells you that they can hoist a few of his pitches out of the yard every so often. I certainly wouldn't pay -160 to back Lilly, since the Cubs seem to find ways to lose his starts, and I'm not sure Floyd is ready. Still, he's the value side, for sure. Leans: White Sox