Sunday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
After getting off to a rocky start in the season, Sabathia (7-3, 4.00) has found his groove and is 3-0 for the month of June.
In his last outing, a rematch of last year's World Series against the Phillies, he outdueled Roy Halladay despite being hit in the left hand by a comebacker.
"For the first three innings, he was as sharp as we've seen him all year, and then he gets hit in the hand," Girardi said of Sabathia. "I always wonder how that affects a guy. I can't tell you, and you probably won't get that out of him, either."
Sabathia soldiered on to earn his first victory since April 16 over a team not named the Orioles, against whom he has earned four of his seven wins this season. His last loss came on May 23 against these same Mets.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Sometimes we run across a streaker who thinks he's a slumper. In this case, Price (10-2, 2.31) is wrong.
The AL's first 10-game winner was rough on himself after giving up eight hits and two earned runs in a win over the Braves for this third straight victory. His winning streak has seen him hold teams to three earned runs over 19 innings, but it doesn't meet his lofty standards.
"I've had a rough stretch here, I'd say about the last month," Price said. "I've thrown well. I just haven't thrown as well as I've wanted to. I can throw better, and I want to get back to that point where I was."
The mark of a great pitcher is that good isn't good enough.
Slumping
Jon Garland, San Diego Padres
Garland had rattled off six consecutive wins entering the month of June, but he has dropped three decisions in a row. His issues seem to be more mental than mechanical.
In his last outing against the Blue Jays on June 15, not even a 5.7 magnitude earthquake shook Garland as bad as a blown call by umpire Larry Vanover. A called ball with two outs and two strikes in the second inning ultimately put Garland in a 4-0 hole the Padres couldn't overcome.
"I mentally lost it," Garland said. "I was frustrated and upset, because I felt I did what I needed to do. It almost seemed like (Vanover) kind of let me down. ... I was out of that inning on a pitch (Vanover) had already given me, and he didn't give it to me."
Garland admitted to losing his composure in the five-inning outing, which is what can happen when frustration sets in. After giving up 13 earned runs in his last 18 innings, Garland desperately needs a strong outing to put the righthander back in the right mindset.
Kyle Davies, Kansas City Royals
Davies (4-5, 6.05) is 0-2 in his three starts in June and the no-decision, in his last outing against the Astros, was a loss that got a way.
Davies was rocked for six runs in just three innings and only dodged the bullet because the Royals struck for seven runs in the fourth in a wild 15-7 victory.
"Kyle was struggling to get the ball down, and they were ambushing him," Royals manager Ned Yost said. "The bullpen came in a did a great job."
Davies has lasted a total of just 13.2 innings in his last three starts, surrendering 22 hits and 16 earned runs during that span.
Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers at Red Sox
By MARC LAWRENCE
Los Angeles and Boston conclude their three-game series at Fenway Park under the ESPN Sunday night lights this evening.
Manny happy, returns
Though he rarely speaks to reporters these days, indications are Dodgers OF Manny Ramirez, once again, is a happy man.
After helping the Red Sox to two World Series championships and ending 86 years of frustration, Ramirez’s homecoming this weekend marked his return to Boston for the first time since he was traded two years ago.
Manny’s greatness, when he hit .312 with 274 home runs and 868 RBI during an eight-year career with the Bosox, turned to sadness when he was sent packing to Los Angeles after the love affair ran its course in 2007.
To make matters worse, he was suspended for 50 games last season due to a highly publicized fertility-drug-induced rampage.
Entering the weekend, in 124 games since returning last July 3 from the suspension, Ramirez has hit .278 with 20 homers and 76 RBIs. While the numbers have declined, so too has Ramirez’s depression.
The question is are the numbers of a lesser man no longer using performance-enhancing drugs, or the normal declining production of a 38-year-old man no longer able to out-hit Father Time?
"I think the suspension hurt him a lot," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. "I think it embarrassed him. When he came back, the work stuff was pretty much the same. He’s a little more serious-minded. I know he didn't like the way he played after the suspension [.269, 13 homers and 43 RBI in 77 games in '09]."
Still, Torre says he thinks Ramirez has yet to get his "swagger" back since the suspension.
As Manny is learning these days, time waits for no man. He’s just happy being Manny.
Dodger doings
• The Dodgers are the only team to tag Mike Leake and Ubaldo Jimenez with a loss this season.
• SS Rafael Furcal was placed on the bereavement list Thursday and returned to his native Dominican Republic to be with an ailing family member. No other details were given. Furcal will miss this series. Chin-lung Hu was recalled from Class AAA Albuquerque.
• RHP Chad Billingsley was put on the 15-day DL because of a groin strain, retroactive to June 12th.
Yo, Adrian
When the Red Sox acquired 3B Adrian Beltre during the offseason there were doubts lingering about his offense and his ability to stay healthy.
They have been put aside. Beltre is among the American League's top 10 hitters with a .337 average and his hustle has dazzled teammates. Entering this series, he was riding a seven-game hitting streak and had hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games.
As a result his high-energy effort has him on pace for 22 home runs and 113 RBIs.
"When you talk about consistent at about a .380 (on-base) clip, that's pretty good," said Sox manager Terry Francona. "He plays as hard as any player I think I've ever seen. He just goes 100 mph all the time every time he's out on the field.
“I think he feels really good about himself. It took him a little while to get going when he got here like it does a lot of guys, but he's been a force."
Arm wrestling
Dodger southpaw Hiroki Kuroda is 9-4 in his team starts this season, including 4-2 away.
Kuroda has issued two walks against 23 strikeouts in his last three road starts during the month of June.
Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz started the campaign respectably at 3-3 with a 3.82 ERA.
Since then he is 6-1 in his last seven team starts with a 1.84 ERA, including 3-0 at Fenway with a 2.18 ERA.
By the numbers
Entering this series:
• In 590 career games at Fenway Park, Ramirez was a .315 hitter with 141 home runs and 471 RBIs. He had a .583 slugging percentage there and a 1.005 on-base-plus-slugging percentage.
• Red Sox hitters lead the AL in seeing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance.
• The Dodgers are 13 games under .500 (103-116) all-time in interleague play, including 4-6 this year. The last time the Dodgers had a winning record in interleague play was in 2004, when they went 10-8.
Tips and Trends
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals
Athletics: Oakland has lost their last 4 games, as they are limping towards the All Star break. The great start to their season is but a distant memory, as Oakland is currently 33-37 SU for the year. Oakland trails Texas by 8 games in the American League West standings. Offensively, Oakland has scored more than 4 runs in only 1 of their last 8 games. With their team struggling, it's unlikely the A's are going to be able to make their team stronger at the trading deadline. The Athletics are struggling with their pitching staff of late, as they've allowed 5 runs or more in 6 of their past 7 games. Oakland is -2.16 and -10.28 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. The Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. Oakland is 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road underdog. The Athletics are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter.
Athletics are 1-6 last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-0-1 last 7 road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Coco Crisp (pectoral) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Cardinals (-120, O/U 9): St. Louis has just recently caught Cincinnati for the National League Central division lead. The Cardinals are 38-30 SU this year, with their home crowd playing a big part of their success this season. The Cardinals are 23-11 at home this year, and they also have a winning record against each division besides the West this year. Despite their success this year, the Cardinals are a terrible team to back from a betting standpoint. St. Louis is clearly overrated in the eyes of oddsmakers, as they are -4.96 and -9.98 units both SU and on the RL this season. P Jeff Suppan is still looking for his first win this year, as he is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.94. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games during game 3 of a series. St. Louis is 5-0 in Suppan's last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Suppan's last 4 starts against the American League West. The Cardinals are 8-2 in Suppan's last 10 home starts overall.
Cardinals are 8-2 last 10 interleague games against a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-2 last 13 games against the American League West.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox
Dodgers: Los Angeles simply isn't a fan of interleague play this year, as they're struggling in Beantown. The Dodgers have lost their past 3 games overall, and are 38-30 on the year. Los Angeles is battling with 3 other teams in the ever tough National League West division. The Dodgers are +1.22 and -3.62 units respectively, both SU and on the RL this year. The Dodgers are struggling with their pitching staff, as they've allowed 23 runs in their past 3 starts combined. P Hiroki Kuroda has been stellar over his past three starts, despite only having 1 win to show for it. Kuroda is 6-4 on the year, with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.32. The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 24-10 in their last 34 games against a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 9-4 in Kuroda's last 13 starts overall. The Dodgers are 4-11 in Kuroda's last 15 starts as a road underdog. The Dodgers are 1-5 in Kuroda's last 6 interleague starts.
Dodgers are 6-20 last 26 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-4 last 14 road games.
Key Injuries - SS Rafael Furcal (personal) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Red Sox (-155, O/U 9.5): Boston might very well be the hottest team in baseball, as they have skyrocketed up the American League standings. Boston has won both games against the Dodgers in their interleague series, and 5 straight overall. The Red Sox are 42-28 SU overall, including 25-15 SU in home games this year. Boston is +4.93 and -3.29 units both SU and on the RL this season. Boston has scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their past 10 games overall. P Clay Buchholz has been dominant this year going 9-4 with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.27. The Red Sox are 44-11 in their last 55 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 16-5 in Buchholz's last 21 starts as a favorite.
Red Sox are 13-3 last 16 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 last 5 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - RF J.D. Drew (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
The fourth round of interleague play will come to a close on Sunday with another 14 games on tap. The National League started this season with some confidence over the American League but that momentum has quickly changed and it could get worse today. The AL went 8-6 on Friday and 10-4 on Saturday, plus out of the eight teams that face three-game sweeps today, six are from the NL.
We’re going to break down the eight potential sweeps, plus look at a pair of intrastate matchups that feature aces going head-to-head on the diamond.
Aces Wild
Ray (42-26, +335) vs. Marlins (32-36, -505)
Florida has dropped four of its last five but it has a great chance to right the ship Sunday when Josh Johnson (7-2, 1.86 ERA) takes the hill. He’s been better at home (5-1, 1.48 ERA), compiling 74 strikeouts in 61 innings. Unfortunately, he hasn’t receive much run support this season and he might not this afternoon since his teammates will be facing the Rays’ David Price (10-2, 2.31 ERA). Tampa’s lefthander will go for his AL-leading 11th win, but he might not be in top form after getting hit in the groin with an inadvertent throw during practice yesterday. Price is 2-0 versus the NL this season but his offense has helped him with 20 runs in the two wins, something that’s doubtful to happen against Johnson.
Gamblers should make a note that the Marlins are 4-0 at home this season in the daytime versus lefthanders. Florida and Tampa have split the first two in this series and both games have gone ‘over’ the number. The Marlins are minus-130 (Bet $130 to win $100) favorites to win today and the total is hovering around 7 ½ runs. Johnson has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1-1 in his last seven appearances, which includes a 4-0-1 mark in South Florida. All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) has been tabbed ‘doubtful’ for the Marlins this afternoon.
Mets (39-29,+1,039) vs. Yankees (42-26, -259)
The Mets took two of three against their cross-town rival in May at home and now the Yankees have the opportunity to return the favor on Sunday from the Bronx. The Yankees snapped the Mets’ eight-game winning streak yesterday with a 5-3 decision. The combined eight runs helped cash the ‘under’ for the second straight day.
We could see another low-scoring affair this afternoon when the Mets’ Johan Santana (5-3, 3.13 ERA) and Yankees’ CC Sabathia (7-3, 400 ERA) go head-to-head. Santana already stifled the Yankees on May 23, allowing one earned run over 7 2/3 innings as the Mets captured a 6-4 decision over Sabathia, who was chased for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings. The Mets have gone 2-5 in Santana’s seven road starts and his offense hasn’t helped during this stretch (18 total runs).
The Yankees won five of CC’s first seven starts but then fell in four straight. Fortunately, the big lefty has gotten back on track with three straight wins heading into this matchup. The Mets (13-7) have had more success than the Yankees (12-12) against southpaws this season. Derek Jeter (heel) missed Saturday’s win for the Yanks and is deemed ‘questionable’ for today.
Sunday’s Sweeps
The Angels entered Wrigley Field with a hot streak and the Cubs haven’t been able to slow them down. Los Angeles has gone 16-5 in its last 21 games, which includes two straight against Chicago. The Angels’ Joe Saunders was tattooed against the Brewers Monday but he’s been tough on the road and the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano (2-5, 5.66 ERA) is always shaky. The Cubs have faced the broom at home three times before this season and they’ve come up with wins each time to avoid the sweep, including last Sunday’s gem by Ted Lilly over the Chisox. A lot of Toronto’s success this season has come from its offense but don’t tell the Giants that. The Blue Jays have posted 3-2 and 3-0 decisions over San Francisco and they send Shaun Marcum (6-3, 3.31 ERA) to the mound today. Marcum has been incredible in the daytime, going 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA in seven afternoon starts. The Giants are 0-5 on the road in this year’s interleague battles.
The White Sox overcame the Stephen Strasburg show on Friday with a 2-1 victory in 11 innings and then watched Jake Peavy toss a gem for a 1-0 victory on Sunday against the Nationals. Ozzie Guillen’s club has won nine of 10 and five straight with a chance to sweep the Nats today. After going 2-1 against Baltimore, Washington is 1-7 in its eight other interleague battles.
The Manny Ramirez show has been silenced this weekend after Boston quickly took the first two from Los Angeles. Boston is hot right now and its best pitcher during this run is Clay Buchholz (9-4, 2.67 ERA), who is 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA over his last seven appearances. The Dodgers have lost six straight to the AL and the pitching staff has surrendered 41 runs over this span.
Atlanta continues to impress this season and they keep rolling along with walk-off winners, notching its 13th victory in its final at-bat on Saturday over the Royals (5-4). The Braves go for the sweep behind Kenshin Kawakami (0-9, 4.42 ERA) and that could spell trouble. Atlanta is just 3-10 in his appearances, but he’s getting less than three runs per game from his offense.
St. Louis nipped Oakland 6-4 on Friday and 4-3 on Saturday, and today’s finale could be tight as well. The Cardinals will send Jeff Suppan to the hill again after picking him up as a DL replacement. The A’s are listed as plus-105 underdogs in this spot because they’ve got the better hurler going in Trevor Cahill (6-2, 3.32 ERA.
After going 1-2 against the Cubs in their first interleague series, the Rangers have now won seven of eight against the NL clubs, including two straight over Houston. To no surprise, Texas has been made a healthy road favorite (-150) with C.J. Wilson taking the hill against the always inconsistent Astros’ starter Felipe Paulino (1-8, 4.50 ERA).
Seattle beat Cincinnati 1-0 and 5-1 behind great outings from Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez to start this series. The Reds hope Aaron Harang (5-6, 5.44 ERA) can help stop the bleeding and he’s been decent against the Mariners (1-2, 1.32 ERA) over his career. Cincy hasn’t been swept since Apr. 18, when the Pirates pulled off the trick in Western Pennsylvania.
Total Notes
# The Yankees have posted nine runs over their last four games, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-0.
# Similar to their series in May from Tampa, the Rays and Marlins watched the first two games easily go ‘over’ the number. Sure enough, the finale went ‘under’ the total. Will it be déjà vu today?
# Arizona continues to be an ‘over’ machine this season, posting a 48-24 mark on the season, which includes a 29-11 road ledger. The first two games against Detroit saw 12 and 11 runs posted on the scoreboard and today’s total is listed at 9 ½ runs.
# The Reds have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 over the last four and the club has been held to three runs or less in five of their previous six games.
# Minnesota and Philadelphia have put up 14 and 23 runs in their first two battles this weekend. Despite those outbursts, today’s total is listed at eight with the Phillies’ Roy Halladay taking the hill and he’s coming off his worst start (6 ER, 8 hits) of the season on Tuesday against the Yankees (3-8). Still, Halladay is 8-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 11 starts versus the Twins in his career.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Baseball Records Might Surprise
By: Steve Makinen
When handicapping baseball day-in and day-out, there is a lot to consider, such as team and pitcher power ratings, bullpen strength, hitting stats, defensive numbers, and even injury factors. Of course, it’s often valuable to look at teams’ situational records, and StatFox offers a plethora of these on its Team Report pages. We’re here today to look at performance on a particular day of the week over the last 2-1/2 seasons, that being Sundays.
We’re not just looking at Sunday because that’s what day it is today, although the timing hopefully will prove valuable. More importantly though, Sunday games in baseball present a pair of situations that can prove definitive over the course of the season, those being most often 1) Day Games and 2) The Final Games of a Series.
You may be saying to yourself, who cares how a team does on Sundays? Or “This type of information is just fluke anyway”. However, keep in mind that baseball can be a superstitious game, and a team’s preparation, be it going out late in an unfamiliar city on Saturday night, or perhaps even going to an early brunch, can often lead to less than typical results. Plus, if you’re one who believes heavily in numbers and trends, how can you argue with some of the results below.
Is it a fluke that the New York Yankees have been almost unbeatable at home lately on Sunday, or that Tampa Bay plays way below its normal standard on the Lord’s Day? Who can explain with certainty why Houston produces so well for bettors on this particular day of the week?
In any case, these are the team that have produced the most distinct results on Sundays over the last 2-1/2 seasons, sorted by units won/lost.
Top Five Overall Teams
1. LA ANGELS: 43-21, 21.1 Units
2. HOUSTON: 37-25, 20.2 Units
3. PHILADELPHIA: 47-24, 16.55 Units
4. TORONTO: 36-25, 11.85 Units
5. NY YANKEES: 41-24, 9.85 Units
Bottom Five Overall Teams
26. CLEVELAND: 26-35, -12.05 Units
27. TAMPA BAY: 29-37, -19.3 Units
28. ARIZONA: 23-38, -19.45 Units
29. BALTIMORE: 18-43, -21.9 Units
30. PITTSBURGH: 17-43, -22.85 Units
Top Five Home Teams
1. NY YANKEES: 27-4, 21.35 Units
2. LA ANGELS: 23-7, 13.2 Units
3. TORONTO: 21-10, 10.6 Units
4. DETROIT: 22-8, 10.25 Units
5. BOSTON: 25-11, 9.2 Units
Bottom Five Home Teams
26. TAMPA BAY: 18-15, -5.45 Units
27. PITTSBURGH: 11-18, -6.4 Units
28. SAN DIEGO: 13-18, -7.15 Units
29. BALTIMORE: 11-19, -8.15 Units
30. ARIZONA: 13-19, -11.05 Units
Top Five Road Teams
1. HOUSTON: 19-12, 14.95 Units
2. PHILADELPHIA: 23-12, 9.1 Units
3. LA ANGELS: 20-14, 7.9 Units
4. KANSAS CITY: 16-15, 6.6 Units
5. TEXAS: 16-16, 4.25 Units
Bottom Five Road Teams
26. NY YANKEES: 14-20, -11.5 Units
27. BOSTON: 11-21, -13.45 Units
28. BALTIMORE: 7-24, -13.75 Units
29. TAMPA BAY: 11-22, -13.85 Units
30. PITTSBURGH: 6-25, -16.45 Units
Top Five OVER the Total Teams
1. FLORIDA: 34-26 OVER
2. ST LOUIS: 33-25 OVER
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 32-26 OVER
4. NY YANKEES: 33-29 OVER
5. LA DODGERS: 33-30 OVER
Top Five UNDER the Total Teams
1. MINNESOTA: 40-22 UNDER
2. TEXAS: 38-23 UNDER
3. WASHINGTON: 37-22 UNDER
4. CLEVELAND: 36-22 UNDER
5. HOUSTON: 35-24 UNDER
As you consider these results, take a look at the full board of matchups for this Sunday to see if you can’t spot any potential value plays, then hit em’ hard. Do the same thing for the next couple months of Sunday baseball by saving and referring back to the chart below. You’ll probably do well.