MLB News and Notes Sunday 6/6

Sunday Night Baseball: Brewers at Cardinals
By MARC LAWRENCE

The Milwaukee Brewers battle the Cardinals in St. Louis Sunday night in an NL Central division game on ESPN. Here’s how the two teams stack up:

Unhurried Holliday

When the Cardinals brought Matt Holliday in to bat cleanup in the lineup behind Albert Pujols, they were expecting big things.

After all, a typical year the last four seasons for Holiday was a .325 batting average with 30 home runs, 112 RBIs and 43 doubles.

Entering this brouhaha with the Brewers, Holliday’s 24 RBIs was only fifth-best on the team. Worse, he’s hit only two home runs at home. And despite a recent surge at the plate, he’s batting .215 with runners in scoring position.

The good news is, entering this series, Holliday was batting .520 in his previous seven games, with two homers and six RBIs and is showing signs of coming around.

"You put together at-bats where even if you get behind, you're still able to hit the ball on the barrel," Holliday said. "You start to feel like you can handle most of the pitches. It's a pretty good feeling."

Manager Tony La Russa insists Holliday is a high-average hitter who just happens to be very strong.

"I don't care if he hits no home runs, we need him to hit .320 to .340," LaRussa said. "That would be great for us."

Macha-watch

Brewers manager Ken Macha is under siege in Milwaukee and as a result has been tinkering with the lineup.

In an attempt to shake the Brewers out of their malaise, outfielder Ryan Braun has been bouncing back and forth between the No. 2 and 3 hole. Meanwhile, cleanup hitter Prince Fielder, like Holliday for the Cards, is fifth on the team in RBIs.

Former All-Star Corey Hart is having a career year with a league-leading 13 homers and 33 RBI. Along with Fielder, the 28-year old outfielder is rumored to be trade bait for a quality starter.

And, after relying on 42-year old change-up specialist Trevor Hoffman to open the season, Macha recently appointed John "The Ax" Axford as his new closer. Hoffman is 1-4 with an 11.00 ERA in 19 appearances this season and is now appearing in middle relief.

Just two years removed after posting its first wining season in 2007 (83-79) since 1992, Milwaukee fans are growing impatient.

"I need to take a couple of Advil," Macha said following a recent Brewers' victory.

Rookie rave

The Cards are relying on three rookie arms in the starting rotation because of injuries to Brad Penny and Kyle Loshe.

P.J. Walters and Adam Ottavino join tonight’s starter, Jaime Garcia, to round out the rotation.

And while Walters and Ottavino do not figure to be around after Penny and Loshe return, Garcia (5-2, 1.32) should keep his spot.

The 24-year old southpaw continues to dazzle, leading all NL rookies in victories and strikeouts (51). He has not allowed more than two earned runs in all 10 of his starts this year and is holding left-handed hitters to a microscopic .103 average.

Garcia overcame a shaky start in a 12-4 win over the Reds on Monday. He allowed two runs and three hits in the first inning. The game was delayed for an hour by rain and that’s when Garcia got focused.

"I think in the first inning, sometimes it's kind of like a shaky one for me because I'm learning," Garcia said. "After the delay I was able to stay focused, stay in the game mentally and physically."

He only allowed an unearned run on four hits in the next five innings.

Man up

Lefty hurler Manny Parra will start in place of Dave Bush in this contest. Macha wants to give Parra more starting opportunities and he also wants to start three left-handers in the series against St. Louis. Heading into the series, the Cardinals were batting .272 against right-handed pitchers but only .243 against lefties.

Parra began the season in the bullpen but was given two starts when lefty Doug Davis recently went on the disabled list with inflammation of the heart lining. Parra went four innings against the Reds, allowing one run, and three innings against the Mets, surrendering three runs.

"We've not given Manny a fair shake," Macha said. "We asked him to come in relief in Minnesota (May 22) when he was supposed to start the next day. Manny has had a couple of good games against the Cardinals. We're trying to get him in an advantageous position."

That’s no lie either. In 2009, when Parra went 11-11 with a 6.36 ERA, he was 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in five starts against the Redbirds. In 12 career outings against the Cards, he owns a 2.97 ERA while going 3-2 in five career team starts at Busch Stadium.

Numbers crunching

- Through Friday’s contest, the Cardinals captured 12 of the last 18 games in the series, but the Brewers stood 13-4 in their last 17 games in St. Louis.

- Garcia is 3-2 in his five home team starts with a 1.50 ERA.

MLB RoundUp For 6/6
By Dan Bebe

National League

Marlins @ Mets (-110) with a total of 8
Jose Reyes was batting .406 off Nolasco with 3 HR and 5 RBI before this season;
David Wright was batting .361 off Nolasco with 3 HR and 8 RBI before 2010.
This is a pretty strong line in favor of the Mets, I believe. Of course, that being said, Takahashi is coming off a miserable performance in San Diego, giving up 6 runs in just 4 innings of work, and moving his ERA up by over a run in the process. So, in terms of how the pitchers are trending, you have to give the slight nod to Nolasco. However, the Mets are just outstanding at home, both offensively (they're very aggressive at home), and on the mound. Nolasco, too, has never been "great" against New York. He's faced them twice this season already, and he pitched alright both times (and the Marlins won both of those starts), but you simply can't overstate the Mets home field edge. Leans: None

Reds (-135) @ Nationals with a total of 9
Willie Harris is 3-for-10 off Arroyo;
Ryan Zimmerman is 4-for-13 with an RBI off Arroyo.
I have a vast array of concerns about this game. Starting with Arroyo, sure his numbers against the Nats are good lifetime at 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA, but he's coming off a miserable start against he Cardinals, and Arroyo has been, throughout his career, one of the streakiest starters in baseball. He had 3 bad starts in early April, has pitched pretty well since, but now the bad performance in St. Louis is a little foreboding. Stammen, on the other side, just isn't very good. He's 1-2 with a 5.88 ERA, and that number is spot on. He's been consistently giving up 3-5 runs almost every time out. Can't trust either of these guys, though I believe the line is correct, given that Arroyo could potentially throw a strong game, while Stammen probably can't. Leans: None

Padres @ Phillies (-145) with a total of 9
Adrian Gonzalez is 3-for-10 with a HR off Blanton;
Raul Ibanez is 4-for-7 with a HR and 5 RBI off Correia;
Chase Utley is 4-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Correia;
Shane Victorino is 5-for-10 with a HR and 5 RBI off Correia.
I know the Phils have been slumping offensively, but Correia's 1-3 record and 7.71 ERA lifetime against them might be just the cure. Plus, Correia just hasn't been quite right since he returned to the Padres off the untimely death of his brother. He pitched well enough to win his last time out, but only because the Padres scored 18 runs in that one. Blanton is the one thing keeping this one from being a play...and the price. Blanton has been pretty bad in most of his starts this year, though he's been solid for the first 4 innings, generally (not all of them) before crumbling the 3rd time through the order. He's 1-1 with a 5.73 lifetime mark against the Padres, and I'm not sure I can advocate throwing a buck-45 on a guy with a 5.68 ERA. Leans: Phillies

Giants (-185) @ Pirates with a total of 7
Ryan Church is 4-for-7 off Lincecum;
Ryan Doumit is 3-for-9 off Lincecum.
I'm waiting to get some player matchup numbers on Ohlendorf, but given the hefty line, this one is probably not going to make the final card. Very quickly, Lincecum is in a slump. I wouldn't dare lay almost 2-to-1 odds, even on the Freak, right now. He's coming off 4 straight starts where he's walked 5 batters, which is extremely out of character, and I just can't trust him right now. Can we trust the Pirates to actually capitalize on those walks? I doubt it. Ohlendorf has pitched probably well enough to win in 5 of his 6 starts, but these are, after all, the Pirates. A volume guy should look at Pittsburgh. Leans: Pittsburgh

Cubs (-135) @ Astros with a total of 8
Derrek Lee is 8-for-16 with a HR off Myers since '05;
Xavier Nady is 3-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Myers;
Aramis Ramirez is 8-for-22 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Myers;
Ryan Theriot is 3-for-8 off Myers;
Geoff Blum is 3-for-8 off Wells;
Michael Bourn is 4-for-9 off Wells.
Randy Wells is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Astros. He's coming off a nice 5-inning bounceback start off the outing where he failed to record an out, so he's in a decent situational spot. Brett Myers is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA lifetime against the Cubbies, so he's seemingly done a decent job of minimizing the damage caused by Lee, Nady, Ramirez, and Theriot. Myers has yet to give up more than 4 runs in any start this season, so he is really in fine form, and that scares me, especially with how hot the Astros have gotten, all of a sudden. Leans: None

Braves @ Dodgers (-130) with a total of 7.5
Rafael Furcal is 5-for-12 off Hudson;
Matt Kemp is 2-for-5 with a HR off Hudson.
This line is awfully high for young John Ely. I was really expecting this one to be roughly a Pick, so to see the Dodgers just about 20 cents higher is leaving me scratching my head just a bit. Ely has been great in his time with LA, going 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA, and just throwing strike after quality strike, but Hudson has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the NL this year. I know he's just 4-2 with a 4.23 lifetime ERA against LA, but looking at the current Dodgers, Manny Ramirez has never hit Hudson well, Russ Martin is 1-for-10, Ethier is 2-for-10, Ronnie Belliard is just 3-for-15 over the last 5 years. I find it tough to compute that Hudson is a true underdog in this Sunday afternoon matchup, especially with how hot the Braves have been. The Under might be the best option, if indeed we see some reserves out there. Leans: Under, Braves

Rockies (-215) @ Diamondbacks with a total of 8.5
Jason Giambi was 7-for-17 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Lopez in years past;
Adam LaRoche was 4-for-8 off Jimenez coming into 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! No need to get into Arizona's player numbers against Jimenez, as this will be his 3rd start against them this year. So far, Ubaldo has thrown 14 shutout innings against the D'backs, allowing just 8 hits, walking 3, and striking out 9. I mean, hell, Jimenez hasn't even allowed a run since May 15. He is the best pitcher in baseball, right now. Rodrigo Lopez has been throwing alright, though he did give up 4 runs in 6 innings in Coors when he faced the Rockies 2 weeks ago. He bounced back with a nice effort in LA, so you have to wonder which Lopez will show up, here. I'm intrigued by this total. With Jimenez on the hill, you have to think that he's going to bring the total down a point (or more) from where it would be with an average starter on the hill. The teams combined for 10 runs at Coors when these two faced off, which cleared the posted mark of "9" by a run. So, here in Arizona, the total is just a half point lower? I know there's the venue effect, but damn, if this number isn't making me think twice. Leans: Further Exploration of the Total

Brewers @ Cardinals (-245) with a total of 8.5
Ryan Ludwick is 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Parra;
Aaron Miles is 3-for-8 off Parra;
Nick Stavinoha is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off Parra.
I see Randy Winn is now a member of the Cardinals, so that should be interesting. Manny Parra can't be expected to go too deep in the game, since he's not an every turn starter, but if he can get through the 5th, that would probably be optimal. That makes it very, very tough to take the big dog, when the starter isn't going to be all that crucial. Jaime Garcia gave up a couple runs to the Reds in his last start early, then settled in, and he just keeps rolling. That 1.32 ERA isn't helping this line at all, either. Garcia beat Milwaukee in his first start of the year, back on April 10th, and we could read this two ways. They've seen him, but he's also got some confidence against a bad team. Leans: None

American League

Yankees (-120) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9.5
Jose Bautista is 3-for-5 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Vazquez.
Vazquez seems to have found a bit of a rhythm of late, and while his ERA is still hovering around 6, he's pitched well in 3 of his last 4 starts, and his only rough outing came against the Twins, a team that has always knocked him around. Brandon Morrow is coming off his best start of the year, too, going 7 innings and allowing just a run to the Rays. Both pitchers trending up, the Yanks struggling to hit in Toronto so far this series, but trying to avoid getting swept? Leans: Under

Red Sox (-175) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5
We'll forgo player numbers here, as well, since this is Lackey's 3rd start this season against the Orioles. He's gone 7 innings in each start, and gave up 2 earned and 3 earned. Lackey is 9-3 in his career against the Orioles, and while I'd love to say that there's value on the Baltimore side, I continue to maintain that this team is absolutel radioactive right now. Matusz faced the Red Sox once this season and gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, but Boston is playing much better now than they were then. This one could potentially get ugly. Leans: Over

Indians @ White Sox (-160) with a total of 9
ULTRA REMATCH ALERT! Let's see if we can write this clearly. This is the 4th start for each of these two against this opponent, and amazingly, the 3rd time that they will be going head-to-head. So far, in the two head-to-head matchups, Buerhle won 6-0 back on April 5, and Buerhle went 2.1 scoreless innings 2 weeks ago before getting tossed for arguing some balk calls in a game the Sox would go on to win. So, I suppose you could argue that Westbrook has lost to Buerhle twice, and beat Peavy once. Buerhle has, to some degree, been on the winning end of two starts against Westbrook, but lost when he faced Mitch Talbot. It's a funny little dynamic. Buerhle is coming off a clunker of a start his last time out, and Westbrook is actually coming off a strong one. The double rematch angle and the upward trend of Westbrook makes me think the Indians have a puncher's chance. Leans: Indians

Tigers (-135) @ Royals with a total of 9
Johnny Damon is 6-for-8 off Bannister with a HR and 4 RBI;
Carlos Guillen is 5-for-12 with 2 RBI off Bannister;
Yuny Betancourt is 9-for-19 with a RBI off Bonderman;
David DeJesus is 9-for-29 with 2 RBI of f Bonderman;
Jose Guillen is 3-for-7 with a HR and 4 RBI off Bonderman since '05.
I'm actually a tad surprised that the Tigers are this big of a favorite, but then, when you think back to the Scherzer/Chen game, I'm reminded that most folks don't see the same thing that we all do when they look at a Tigers/Royals game. Most see the Tigers, a supposed AL Central frontrunner, taking on a team that can't get its head out of its collective rectum, but in actuality, the Royals always give Detroit fits, and Brian Bannister is 4-2 lifetime against Detroit with a 2.12 ERA. He's pitched well against them twice this year already, and while Bonderman has been throwing exceptionally well since the beginning of May, there are plenty of Royals that have hit him, and KC has one of the top team averages in baseball. Leans: Royals

Rays (-145) @ Rangers with a total of 9.5
Michael Young is 5-for-16 with 1 HR and 2 RBI.
Rich Harden has been flat-out bad since the beginning of May, and his ERA just keeps ballooning. He's given up 18 runs in his last 4 starts, and has been able to last just 18 innings. Bad news, there. Garza hasn't been all that outstanding lately, either, and his start in Texas last year was pretty miserable. The Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 games in Texas, and it almost seems like they go out of their way to lose games in Arlington. Still, if we had almost any other starter on the other side going for the Rangers, it would be a good bet. Here, with Harden clanking his way through his last 4-5 starts, it's just a roll of the dice. Leans: None

Twins @ Athletics (-130) with a total of 8
Brendan Harris is 2-for-4 off Gonzalez;
Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau are each 2-for-2 off Gonzalez with 4 combined homers and 11 RBI. Yikes!
Jack Cust is 6-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blackburn;
Mark Ellis is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Blackburn;
Kurt Suzuki is 3-for-8 with 4 RBI off Blackburn.
These pitchers have miserable histories against the other team. Blackburn is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA against the Athletics, and Gio Gonzalez is 0-1 with a 28.59 ERA against the Twins. That is just straight up hideous. Both of these pitchers have done well this season, so I believe that is what's keeping this total so very, very low, and while I don't legitimately trust either of them. Neither is coming off a good start, so they're both somewhat trending down, and my one concern is really the fact that this is an extreme pitcher's park, and that we might see some reserves on a Sunday game. Leans: Over

Angels @ Mariners (-130) with a total of 8
Juan Rivera was 3-for-4 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Vargas before 2010.
Joel Pineiro has been the epitome of up-and-down this season. He's had complete game shutouts, and he's had 3 innings of 9-run baseball. Which Pineiro will we get, here? He has half-decent numbers against most of the current Mariners, but I don't know how much that means. The Angels pitching staff has completely shut down the Mariners this series, so far, so Pineiro's got momentum on his side, but Vargas is definitely the stronger starter in this one. Vargas is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA against the Angels in his career, including 7.1 innings this year of 1 unearned run ball. I believe this line is probably pretty accurate, considering the Angels are playing better, but Seattle has the superior starter, and will likely try to avoid the sweep with a stronger effort. Leans: Mariners

Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Yankees at Blue Jays**

Most betting shops are listing New York (34-22, +253) as a minus-120 favorite with a total of 9 ½ flat (-110 either way). Gamblers can take the Yankees on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).

Toronto (33-24, +1325) won a 3-2 decision over the Yankees on Saturday afternoon in 14 innings. Aaron Hill plated the winning run with a one-out single in the 14th, lifting the Blue Jays to victory as plus-120 home underdogs. The win gave Toronto the majors’ best money tally (pending San Diego’s late result Saturday night).

Cito Gaston’s squad improved to 17-13 at home for the season. Meanwhile, Joe Girardi’s club fell to 15-15 on the road.

Brandon Morrow (4-4, 6.00) has been much more effective at home this season, compiling a 4-1 record and 3.90 ERA in five starts. Morrow has a 1-0 record and 3.94 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees.

Javier Vasquez (4-5, 6.06) got off to an extremely rough start in his second tour of duty in the Bronx, but the veteran right-hander has been sharp in his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Vasquez owns a 4-7 record and 4.17 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays.

With Tampa Bay losing Saturday at Texas, the Yankees remained just two games back of the AL East-leading Rays. The Blue Jays are in third place, 3 ½ games off the pace.

The ‘under’ is 28-27 overall for Toronto, 16-14 in its home games.

The ‘over’ is 30-26 overall for the Yankees, but the ‘under’ is 17-15 in their road assignments. They lead the majors in hitting with a .283 team batting average.

The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Brewers at Cardinals**

Most spots are listing St. Louis (33-23, -49) as a minus-225 ‘chalk’ with a total of 8 ½ flat (-110 either way). Bettors can back the Cards on the run line at a minus-110 price.

Milwaukee (22-34, -1385) has been one of the bigger disappointments in the majors this season. The team will turn to Manny Parra (1-3, 4.06) for the starting nod in this spot. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.97 lifetime ERA against St. Louis.

St. Louis LHP Jaime Garcia (5-2, 1.39) has been nearly untouchable at home, posting a 2-0 record and 0.72 ERA in four outings. However, despite his excellent numbers, the Cards are just 5-5 in Garcia’s 10 starts.

Tony LaRussa’s club went into Saturday’s action with a one-game lead over the Reds for first place in the NL Central. The Cards have been all about their pitching, which is ranked No. 1 in the majors with a 2.97 ERA. The Brewers are 10 games off the pace.

The Cardinals beat Milwaukee by a 5-4 count in 11 innings yesterday afternoon. Albert Pujols belted his 13th homer of the season in the victory. They improved to 18-9 at home, while the Brewers fell to 14-17 on the road.

St. Louis owns an 8-6 record against left-handed pitching, while the Brewers are 6-10 versus southpaws.

The ‘over’ has been a lucrative money maker in Milwaukee games this season, hitting at a 32-20 overall clip. The Brewers have seen the ‘over’ go 18-12 in their road games.

The ‘under’ is 33-21 overall for the Cards, 16-10 in their road games.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 41-17 in Arizona games. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is an MLB-best 30-17 for the Cubs.

San Diego, which went into Saturday’s play with a slim one-half game lead over the Dodgers for the NL West lead, has been led by its stellar bullpen that has an MLB-best 2.82 ERA.

Minnesota’s Justin Morneau, who leads the big leagues with a .372 batting average, missed Saturday’s game at Oakland with flu-like symptoms. Bettors should check his status for Sunday.

vegasinsider.com

Tips and Trends

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Brewers: Milwaukee has been nothing short of a disappointment this year, as they have failed to live up to their expectations so far this season. The Brewers are a paltry 22-34 this year, the 3rd worst mark in the National League. Milwaukee is in 4th place in the National League Central division, 11 games behind the Cardinals. Milwaukee is actually respectable on the road this year at 14-18. Milwaukee is one of the few teams in baseball that are double digit units in the hole both SU and on the RL this year. The Brewers are -13.85 and -13.24 units respectively this year, proving how overrated they have been this year. Lefty Manny Parra has been average at best this year, as he is only 1-3 with an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.74 this season. The Brewers are 1-11 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Milwaukee is 3-7 in their last 10 games against a left-handed starter. The Brewers are 3-10 in Parra's last 13 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 1-4 in Parra's last 5 Sunday starts.

Brewers are 4-1 last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 12-1 last 13 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.

Key Injuries - C Gregg Zaun (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Cardinals (-240, O/U 8.5): St. Louis wakes up today with the best record in the National League at 33-23. The Cardinals have a 1 game lead over the Reds thanks to a 3 game winning streak St. Louis has also won 7 of their last 10 games, thanks to an explosive offense. The Cardinals have averaged more than 7 runs per game over their past 5 games. St. Louis is -0.49 and -5.21 both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Cardinals are 19-9 at home this season, clearly proving how much they enjoy playing in front of their home fans. Lefty Jaime Garcia looks to continue his outstanding season tonight under the bright lights. Garcia is 5-2 this year, with an ERA of 1.32 and a WHIP of 1.19. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. St. Louis is 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Cardinals are 13-5 in their last 18 home games against a left-handed starter.

Cardinals are 5-1 last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Under is 21-7-1 last 29 games as a favorite of -201 or greater.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)