Sunday Southpaws
By Judd Hall
Baseball’s final day before the All-Star break is loaded with plenty of action. And bettors can take advantage of plays for or against southpaws for the day. After all, we’ve got nine games with a lefty starting for his respective team. Let’s take a look at a trio of those contests.
Athletics at Rays – 1:35 p.m. EDT
It has to be really tough to be an A’s fan right about now. You figured your club would be a darkhorse for the American League West after picking up Matt Holiday from Colorado. Instead, Oakland is languishing in last place and Holliday has just eight homers to his credit.
Oakland has dropped three straight games and six of its last nine fixtures. Offense has been at a premium for the Athletics during this slump as they’ve scored more than three runs in just four of those games. While that has killed the A’s chances, bettors have taken advantage of the ‘under’ going 8-1 during this skid.
The Athletics are going to try to turn the ship around with southpaw starter Brett Anderson (5-7, 4.86 ERA). Oakland has won his last three starts, including a two-hit, complete game shutout at Fenway on July 6. Anderson also picked up a victory at Tropicana Field on May 20 in a 7-6 decision against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 15-17 against left-handed pitching this season. The Rays are seventh in Major League Baseball with a .277 batting average versus lefties. And they have crossed the plate 161 times during 2009…the most of any club in the big leagues. The most important stat to know is that Joe Maddon’s club is 5-1 when taking on a southpaw at home during the day this year.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have tabbed the Rays as heavy $1.80 home favorites (risk $180 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½.
White Sox at Twins – 2:10 p.m. EDT
The race to catch the Tigers is on in this series closing contest. If you were to just go off of recent trends, then the White Sox are sucking the hind teat, dropping four of their last six games. That number includes a 6-4 setback in the series opener on Friday night.
Things do look like they could pick up for the extended break for the Pale Hose here with Mark Buehrle (9-2, 3.14 ERA) getting the starting nod. Chicago has come on top in Buehrle’s last five starts, scoring an average of 6.2 runs per game. And the White Sox’s starter is 2-0 with a 1.35 earned run average in two starts versus Minnesota.
The betting shops have listed Minnesota as a $1.25 home “chalk” with a total of 8 ½ for this match.
The Twins have fared well against left-handed pitching at home this year with a 10-6 record. They’re in the Top 10 in hitting (.273) and runs scored (128). As strong as you might want to think Minnesota is in this spot, keep in mind that they’re only 1-3 against southpaws during the day at the Metrodome.
Yankees at Angels – 3:35 p.m. EDT
The plus side for Yankee fans is that their team has won 13 of its last 16 games this season. But you have to lean towards those wins weren’t all that impressive. Unless you count beating third places teams from across the landscape as “impressive.”
New York’s first true test against a legitimate playoff club came up lacking on Friday night. The Yanks saw the Halos go yard twice after coughing up a 5-1 lead to lose 10-6.
The Bronx Bombers will send out their ace, C.C. Sabathia (8-5, 3.70 ERA), to close out the series on Sunday. Sabathia has been productive for the Yanks recently, pitching at least seven innings in four of his last six starts. However, he has alternated wins and losses over these last seven outings.
Los Angeles will be without two of its best sluggers in Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter. Guerrero didn’t have the best numbers against New York’s starter (.200, 1 HR, 2 RBI). Hunter, on the other hand, has fared well against Sabathia with a .294 average, three round-trippers and 17 runs batted in.
LVSC has listed the Yankees as $1.30 road favorites with the total coming in at nine.
That line doesn’t jive with recent history for me.
The Angels have gone 6-1 in the last seven games they’ve played at home against New York. Also, they’re 15-9 against the AL East this season. And if that doesn’t give you enough of a reason to take LA as a $1.30 home pup, consider that they’re 3-0 during the daytime against southpaws at home.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Cubs
By Marc Lawrence
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
The second half of a rare day-night doubleheader finds the Cubs hosting the Cardinals in the final game before the All-Star break Sunday.
Central division leading St. Louis will send Adam Wainwright (9-5 3.09 ERA) to the mound against Chicago’s Randy Wells (4-3 2.48 ERA) in a matchup of right-handers.
What a difference a year makes
Last year at this time, the Cubs lead the National League Central and were rewarded with eight players earning spots on the All-Star roster.
Thanks to an impotent lineup, only pitcher Ted Lilly is an All Star this season.
"There's nothing else to say," an aggravated Lou Piniella told Chicago reporters this week of an offense that ranks second last in the NL in runs scored. “There really isn't. ... I get asked the same questions every day. Every day. And I think what you need to do is go ask the players why they're not hitting instead of asking me. Or go talk to the hitting coach."
The third-place Cubs entered the weekend with a .247 team batting average. The first-place Cardinals were hitting .256 BA on the season.
Injury bugged
To make matters worse, the Cubs lost starting catcher Geovany Soto, the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, to the 15-day disabled list with a strained left oblique muscle. Piniella said Soto could be out for a month.
After showing up overweight this spring, Soto was hitting just .230 BA, 55 points below last year's average. His power is way down (eight homers after belting 23 last year) and he tested positive for marijuana while playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic this spring.
Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster (an All Star last year) went on the DL Tuesday with a fractured right toe, a dugout injury he got celebrating a win on Sunday.
In Dempster’s absence, the Cubs called Jeff Stevens up from Iowa. Stevens is one of three pitchers the Cubs obtained in the offseason trade for Mark DeRosa. Stevens' presence gives the Cubs seven relievers for this four-game series. Stevens has not pitched in the major leagues.
Cardinal IF/OF DeRosa (strained left wrist tendon) joined SS Khalil Greene (social anxiety disorder) on the 15-day disabled list June 29. Meanwhile, 3B Troy Glaus (right shoulder surgery in January 2009) was batting in Jupiter, Florida last week but he was still having trouble throwing.
Strong arm tactics
Wells has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs this season. He rebounded off a sluggish 1-4 team start effort and has now won each of his last four team starts in a row with a 2.46 ERA along the way.
The rookie right-hander is 3-2 in his five home starts with a 3.07 ERA. Wells brings an excellent 1.09 WHIP into tonight’s contest.
Despite not being named to this year’s All-Star squad, Wainwright has put big numbers for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis is 12-6 in his team starts, including 7-1 away from home.
The 6-foot-7 Wainwright enjoys pitching this time of the season, as evidenced by a 6-1 career team start mark during July. He is also 5-0 his last five team starts against the Cubs, including 3-0 this season.
The envelope, please
To quote Piniella, “These games are probably more important to us than to St. Louis.”
The Cubs would like nothing better than to head to the All-Star break with a victory over the division leading Cardinals.
Given Zambrano’s sterling 17- team start mark in his last twenty efforts in July and his 10-2 mark in his last 12 starts in this series, look for the Cubbies to improve to 18-4 at home on Sundays.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (55-32) at Milwaukee (45-42)
The Brewers snapped out of their funk Saturday and now give the ball to ace Yovani Gallardo (8-6, 2.95 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game series at Miller Park against the Dodgers, who are set to counter with red-hot lefty Clayton Kershaw (6-5, 3.27).
Milwaukee bounced back from Friday’s 12-8, 10-inning loss to the Dodgers with Saturday’s 6-3 victory. Still, the Brewers have dropped seven of their last 10, scoring two runs or fewer in five of the seven defeats, and they’re also in ruts of 2-4 at home, 0-5 on Sunday and 3-5 against the N.L. West. They’ve also struggled with L.A. of late, losing 36 of the last 54 meetings, including four of the last six at Miller Park.
Despite Saturday’s setback, Los Angeles has won five out of six and six of its last nine, including going 5-3 on its nine-game road trip that ends today. The Dodgers, who continue to sport baseball’s best record, are on additional positive runs of 6-2 against right-handed starters 11-6 against the N.L. Central.
Kershaw has been brilliant in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA, allowing just two runs and 17 hits while striking out 33 in 29 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all five of those starts and are 5-1 in both his last six starts on Sunday and his last six against the N.L. Central.
Kershaw went 0-3 with a 9.47 ERA in his first four road starts, but is 4-0 with a 1.39 ERA in his last four roadies, and he comes into this contest having tossed 15 straight scoreless innings in his last two outings on the highway. The 22-year-old’s lone start against the Brewers came at home last year, and he gave up a run on eight hits while fanning six in six innings, but he got a no-decision in L.A.’s 7-5 victory.
Gallardo is coming off a rare poor start, as he got touched up for four runs on six hits and five walks in five innings of Tuesday’s 5-0 home loss to St. Louis. The right-hander had surrendered just 11 runs (10 earned) in his previous eight starts covering 53 innings (1.70 ERA). Gallardo is now just 4-4 in nine home starts despite a solid 2.89 ERA, and tonight marks his first-ever outing against Los Angeles.
The under is 5-2 in Kershaw’s last seven starts, and with Gallardo on the hill, the “under” is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 on Sunday.
Milwaukee carries “under” streaks of 4-2 at home, 8-4 against the N.L. West and 11-5-1 on Sunday, but the over is 10-1-1 in its last 12 games versus southpaw starters. Also, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 8-2 on the road, and 9-3 on Sunday. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven Brewers-Dodgers clashes and 4-2 in the last six clashes in Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (51-36) at L.A. Angels (48-37)
The Angels go for a three-game sweep of the Yankees when they send John Lackey (3-4, 5.18) to the mound against New York ace CC Sabathia (8-5, 3.70).
Los Angeles rallied from an early deficit for the second straight day Saturday, pounding out a 14-8 victory over the Yankees on the heels of Friday’s 10-6 rout. The Angels are on positive streaks of 19-8 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 against southpaw starters, 5-1 versus the A.L. East and 21-8 on Sunday.
New York’s back-to-back losses to the Angels follow a three-game overall and eight-game road winning streak. Still, the Yankees 13-4 in their last 17 games and are on additional runs of 36-19 overall, 9-1 against right-handed starters, 12-4 against winning teams and 35-17 on Sunday.
The host has now won 11 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry, including four of five this season. Additionally, the Angels are 7-1 in the last eight series clashes in Anaheim and they’ve won eight of 11 against New York overall.
Sabathia dominated the Twins in Tuesday’s 10-2 win in the Metrodome, scattering a run on three hits and a walk in seven innings as he bounced back from an ugly 8-4 home loss to Seattle in which he surrendered six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. New York has now triumphed in five of Sabathia’s last seven starts on the highway, and for the season, the hefty lefty is 6-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 road efforts.
Sabathia suffered an 8-4 home loss to the Angels back on May 2 in the Bronx, yielding five runs (four earned) in 6 2/3 innings. He’s now 5-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 13 career starts against the Halos.
Lackey followed up consecutive quality starts against the Orioles and Diamondbacks (two earned runs allowed in 15 innings) with Wednesday’s poor outing against the Rangers, as he got lit up for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, suffering an 8-5 home loss. Lackey is now 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA in four home starts, and going back to September of last season, the Angels have lost six of Lackey’s last seven home contests and eight of his last 10 against winning teams,
On the bright side, Lackey has a 2.86 ERA in four day games this year, and L.A. is 18-8 in his last 26 Sunday affairs and 6-1 in the right-hander’s last seven home starts against New York. For his career, Lackey is 4-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 15 regular-season starts versus the Bronx Bombers.
The over is 4-0 in Sabathia’s last four starts overall and 4-1 in his last five on the road, but the under is 4-1 in Lackey’s last five home outings and 5-1 in his last six on Sunday.
For Los Angeles, the “over” is on runs of 6-1 overall (all at home), 6-1-1 against the A.L. East and 6-2-1 versus lefty starters, while New York has hurdled the total in seven of its last eight overall and five of its last six against A.L. West foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is on stretches of 15-4 overall and 12-3 in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)
The 2006 American League Rookie of the Year appears to finally be pitching like the ace of a staff with World Series aspirations. Verlander (9-4, 3.59 ERA) allowed three earned runs over six innings in an 8-5 win over the Royals last week, but most importantly he struck out 11 and walked none, proving his control is getting better.
The right-hander also is first in the AL with 141 total punchouts.
All that adds up to bad news for the Indians. In two starts against the Tribe earlier this year, Verlander combined to strike out 22 and allow only one run on four hits in 16 innings.
“This is certainly the best I've felt in a while," Verlander told the Associated Press. "This is why I worked so hard in the spring to get back to my natural arm angle. It wasn't easy - I felt like I was throwing sidearm for a week when I had only moved it an inch - but it is paying off."
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The wild success of the 21 year old is one of the best kept secrets around the Dodgers organization.
Kershaw (6-5, 3.27 ERA) has been much better the past several weeks than his numbers would suggest. The left-hander has allowed only two runs in the past 29 2-3 innings as he has been dominant for Los Angeles. Kershaw, however, has been kept on tight inning and pitch counts and hasn’t lasted past the seventh inning this season.
If Kershaw learns how to keep down his walks – he has issued 54 free passes, second-most in the National League – he likely will be able to go deeper in games and be even more dominant. Last week in his most recent start, Kershaw gave up just three hits in six shutout innings against the Mets.
Slumping
Dustin Nippert (Texas Rangers)
Nippert barley made it through more innings (3 2-3) than earned runs he allowed (3) in his first start this season after being activated from the DL.
Texas had hoped the 28-year-old right-hander would bolster its staff, but instead Nippert will likely be pitching to keep the No. 5 spot in the team’s rotation against the Mariners. His nagging injury has been a strained right shoulder.
Nippert once was a young prospect for the Diamondbacks, but after failing to make an impact in Arizona, he tried to find a spot on the pitching-poor Rangers. If Nippert, who began the season with just 11 career starts, can’t keep a spot in the rotation, he will need to find a new place to call home.
Bruce Chen (Kansas City Royals)
Chen almost had us fooled. After allowing four runs in 6 1-3 innings against Pittsburgh in his season debut last month, the 10-year veteran appeared a little rusty, but solid. Then, he followed that performance by giving up just two earned runs in six innings against the White Sox.
But last week, Bruce was back to being the Bruce Chen we all know: seven earned runs, five walks and three home runs allowed in just 4 2-3 innings as the Tigers smoked the Royals, 8-5.
Good luck against the Red Sox, Bruce.
"That's five homers in three starts he’s allowed," Royals manager Trey Hillman said of Chen to the Associated Press. "And, four of them have been on the same pitch -- a changeup that he leaves up. When you keep making the same mistakes on the same pitch, you need to make some kind of adjustment.”
Cubs, Cardinals finish series
By AllStar.com
St. Louis Cardinals (48-41) At Chicago Cubs (42-42)
Date: Sunday July 12th
Time: 08:05 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Cubs -118 / Cards +108
Total: No Overnight total
Cards Road Record: 24-21
Cubs Home Record: 26-17
Cards last 10: 7-3
Cubs last 10: 6-4
Cards Runs Scored: 394
Cards Runs Against: 361
Cubs Runs Scored: 341
Cubs Runs Against: 344
Pitchers:
Adam Wainwright (STL) 9-5 / 3.09 ERA / 110 K’s / 1.30 WHIP
Carlos Zambrano (CHI) 4-4 / 3.47 ERA / 75 K’s / 1.31 WHIP
The first of half of the MLB season ends with a great four game series between the winners of seven of the past nine N.L. Central Division titles the Cubs and Cards. Following an impressive win in the opener of a key four-game series at Wrigley Field, first-place St. Louis seeks its eighth victory in 10 games Saturday against the slumping Cubs.
The Cardinals finished 11 ½ games in back of Chicago in 2008, but are quickly creating some distance in the Central during a season-high 10-game swing. The Cardinals look like they're ready to put an end to the Cubs' brief run as N.L. Central Champs.
St. Louis was percentage points behind Milwaukee when this trip started in Cincinnati on July 3. After taking four of six from the Reds and Brewers, the Cardinals defeated the Cubs 8-3 on Friday.
The Cubs (41-42), meanwhile, has lost three in a row to drop 4 ½ games back of St. Louis. The Cubs' offense has struggled during the skid, plating only five runs while going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position.
Albert Pujols has certainly earned the reputation of being the most feared hitter in baseball now. Pujols is probably the best hitter in baseball because he is a very intelligent hitter with two strikes; he always puts the ball in play. Pujols is batting .332 with 32 HR’s and 85 RBI with three games remaining in the first half. Pujols accomplished this with no real protection this season due to injuries to Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel. Both Ludwick and Ankiel have been in terrible slumps with both spending time on the DL. Ludwick who had a terrible June, is currently on fire in has last ten games with 12 RBI, 3 HR and he is hitting the ball hard all over the field. Rick Ankiel was not in Wednesday or Thursday’s starting lineup after striking out four times, with an 0-for-five Tuesday, and could be buried in Larussa’s dog house. Ankiel is six for 51 since his five-game hitting streak ended June 22. His overall average dropped from .248 to .222 in that span. He did play Friday with another 0-4...Ankiel needs the All Star Break. Colby Rasmus has hit home runs in four of his past six games and he is having a nice rookie campaign hitting .281, with 11HR’s and 34 RBI’s.
Derrek Lee now has a Cub leading 17 homers to go along with 56 RBI, also best on the Cubs. He has his slugging percentage up to .513, and he has six homers in his last nine games. Aramis Ramirez is back from a 2 month stay on the DL and he has hit safely in his last four games including a home run in Saturday games. Alfonso Soriano (14Hr/32Rbi) has never struggled this long. His .198 June was his worst full month in the big leagues. Soriano is hitting .231, with an OBP of .294, terrible for a lead off hitter; he has 80 strike outs year to date. Kosuke Fukudome is 6-for-17 (.353) since replacing Soriano in the leadoff spot last Saturday. Fukudome hit his seventh homer Wednesday; he had 10 last year. RF Milton Bradley was 0-for-4 Wednesday, and his average fell to .236. Bradley is 27-for-143 (.189) batting left-handed, and hitting .350 right-handed. Koyie Hill takes over as the Cubs' No. 1 catcher for now that Giovanni Soto is back on the DL with an Oblique strain. Hill is hitting .226 with 2 Hr’s and 8 RBI’s in a limited role. The Cubs may need to acquire a Catcher over the break.
Breaking Down the Starting Pitchers:
Carlos Zambrano had a quality start on Tuesday, holding the Braves to two runs in six innings but he was left with a tough luck loss. This was typical Zambrano as he had three walks and six strikeouts. Zambrano continues to have trouble finding the win column as he has not won since June 5. Zambrano is 4-4 with a 3.47era, with 75 K’s in 90 innings and he has given up 85 hits.
Adam Wainwright threw 8.1 shutout innings in Tuesday's win over the Brewers, striking out nine in the process. Wainwright still hasn't thrown a complete game shutout yet, but is getting closer. He's consistently working deep into games, going at least six innings in each of his last 16 starts. Wainwright is 9-5 with a 3.09era with 110K’s in 122 innings.
Betting Trends:
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five road games
Cardinals are 8-1 in Adam Wainwright’s last nine road starts
The OVER is 10-1-1 in Adam Wainwright’s last 12 road starts
Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a HOME FAVORITE
Cubs are 9-3 in Carlos Zambrano’s last 12 starts as a FAVORITE
Cubs are 7-2 in Carlos Zambrano’s last nine starts
Unfriendly-Confines!!
By SportsPic
The Metrodome has not been a pleasant place for the Chicago White Sox. Suffering a defeat in the opener followed by a victory Saturday Pale Hose are 2-10 the last twelve trips into Minneapolis. However, Ozzie Guillen's troops should pick up another win when they close the set with their lone All-Star representative, Marc Buehrle (9-2, 3.14 ERA). The crafty southpaw putting up great numbers of late (1.08 WHIP, 9.79 ABRA/9, 16.0 BOR/9) has guided White Sox to five straight victories stuffing +$541 into betting accounts. Having already defeated Twinkies twice this season moving his team start record to 24-13 the past thirty-seven appearances Buehrle gets the job done. Starters who get guys out (Batter-Out-Rating >15) naturally leads to less men on base (Avg-Base-Runners-Allowed) making it tougher for the opposition to score runs. There-in lies the angle, 'Play-On' road teams with a starter sporting a high BOR (>15) and low ABRA (<12), they win at a 65.8% clip (275-143) outscoring the host teams 4.5 to 2.6. Keep in mind, despite recent set backs White Sox have been doing a number away from U.S. Cellular Field winning 16-of-23 (+$1369) outscoring teams 5.8 to 3.5. Put them in the dog roll they're 13-6 (+$1181) outscoring teams 6.1 to 3.6.