MLB News and Notes Sunday 7/18

Sunday's Finale
By Chris David

The MLB All-Star break is behind us as the second-half is in full gear and all of the division races are up in the air. It’s fair to say that most pundits didn’t expect the Padres, Rangers and Reds to be sitting in first place but that’s the case and a large part of their success has come at home. All three clubs have posted stellar records on their turf, plus they’ve been great on the road as well.

With 3 ½ months of baseball in the books, tendencies like the above become more known to the public and solid trends develop. Even though this writer believes all things balance out in the long run, sometimes the pendulum doesn’t swing the other way.

One glaring trend that has developed in the first-half has been based on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Through the first 15 installments on the network, the home team has busted out of the gates with a 12-3 record and two of the losses by the host came in extra innings.

Playing favorites and the ‘over’ is a common theme amongst the majority of gamblers in all sports but most bettors understand that baseball is a different animal. “Our baseball lines are set on a game-by-game basis,” said Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Jeremy Ryan. “We rarely adjust a side with a televised matchup but we may favor the ‘over’ slightly, since most customers like to wager on the high side, but even then it’s only 5 cents.”

Total players watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 in the first nine games in the primetime slot, but the ‘under’ closed the first half with a 4-2 run.

The first ESPN encounter of the second-half will feature two NL clubs, Philadelphia and Chicago, going head-to-head. The Phillies have played in the primetime spot twice and they’ve come out victorious each time. The Cubs have played two times as well, and they’ve gone 1-1, winning at home and losing on the road.

Can Chicago keep the home trend rolling tonight? The Cubbies took the first two games (12-6, 4-3) against the Phillies but they blew a lead on Saturday. Holding a 1-0 lead in the ninth with two outs, Plácido Polancohit a game-tying single off Carlos Mármol and then watched the pitcher walk an additional two more runs. The Phillies wound winning 4-1 and cashed tickets as road favorites (-120). The combined five runs never threatened the closing total of five runs.

To no surprise, the Phillies have been made favorites (-165) for the fourth and final game of this series and its all about the pitching matchup.

Roy Halladay (10-7, 2.19 ERA) was the prize acquisition this offseason for Philadelphia and the ace started the season by winning six of his first seven starts. Things tempered a bit in May and June as the Phillies went 3-7 over his next 10 appearances. Fortunately, he got things right and closed the first-half of the season with two solid outings, tossing two complete games and surrendering just one run. Halladay hasn’t faced the Cubs this season but he did face them twice during interleague play when he was with Toronto. Chicago won both those games, but Halladay only gave up four earned runs over 12 innings.

Countering Halladay tonight for the Cubs will be Tom Gorzellany (4-5, 3.16 ERA) and he’s been in and out of the bullpen this season. Even though the lefthander has only had 12 starts, his last three appearances were solid. He’s notched 16 innings over this span, and only gave up 15 hits and five earned runs, while striking out 17. The Cubs have gone 2-1 during this stretch, with the offense scoring 16 runs in his two wins, and zero in the loss. The Phillies have gone 10-11 against lefties this season, but seven of those victories have come on the road. Gorzelanny faced Philadelphia on the road in mid-May and he threw 6 2-3 shutout innings and the Cubs notched a 4-1 win. He gave up three hits, two walks and struck out five in the victory.

After this series, Philadelphia will head to St. Louis for its second straight four-game set against NL Central foes. The Cubbies will remain at Wrigley for six more games, starting with a three-game series against the Astros on Monday.

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Tips and Trends

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates

Astros (-150, O/U 7): Houston might be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, but they certainly aren't playing like it currently. Houston has been respectable now for the past month, as their offense has finally shown signs of life. The Astros also have plenty of confidence when facing Pittsburgh, as they are a perfect 7-0 SU against them this year. Houston is 37-53 SU overall this year, with nearly a 5th of their wins coming against the Pirates this year. Houston is -3.45 and -8.10 units both SU and on the RL this year. Ace P Roy Oswalt will make take the mound today, as he could be pitching in his last game in a Houston uniform. Oswalt is only 6-10 this year, despite an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.05. The Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 games against the National League Central. Houston is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Houston is 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games overall. The Astros are 4-1 in Oswalt's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record. The Astros are 6-2 in Oswalt's last 8 Sunday starts. The Astros are 1-5 in Oswalt's last 6 starts with 9 or more days of rest.

Astros are 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Under is 11-4 last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Key Injuries - SS Tommy Manzella (finger) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Pirates: The battle of 2 of the 3 worst teams in the National League continues tonight. The Pirates have lost 8 of their past 10 games to stand 30-59 SU overall this season. While the Pirates have struggled this year in general, they have actually been fairly decent at home. The Pirates are 19-21 SU at home this year. Pittsburgh is -12.96 and -12.67 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Lefty Paul Maholm will make the home start tonight, as he looks to keep his respectable season going. Maholm is 5-7 this year, with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.53. The Pirates are 22-47 in their last 69 games against the National League Central. Pittsburgh is 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a right-handed starter. The Pirates are 11-41 in their last 52 games against a right-handed starter. The Pirates are 1-9 in their last 10 games against starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Pittsburgh is 2-6 in Maholm's last 8 starts with 8 or more days of rest. The Pirates are 1-4 in Maholm's last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 1-5 in Maholm's last 6 starts on grass. Pittsburgh is 2-12 in Maholm's last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance
.

Pirates are 0-6 last 6 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 11-5 last 16 during game 3 of a series.

Key Injuries - 1B Steven Pearce (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies (-165, O/U na): Philadelphia is looking to salvage a split with the Cubs in their 4 game series. Philadelphia is currently 48-42 SU this season, including a road record of 23-25 SU. The Phillies are 5 games behind the Braves in the National League East standings. The Phillies appear to have a great chance to win tonight, as they send their ace to the mound in P Roy Halladay. Halladay is 10-7 SU this season, with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.05. Philadelphia has won 5 of their last 6 games as the listed favorite heading into tonight. The Phillies are 43-16 in their last 59 Sunday games. The Phillies are 16-6 in their last 22 games during game 4 of a series. Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter. Philadelphia is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Phillies are 1-6 last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games during game 4 of a series.

Key Injuries - 2B Chase Utley (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Cubs: Tonight's game is critical in so many ways for Chicago. The Cubs need this home win tonight in the national spotlight to stay relevant in the National League Central division. It appears the front office is ready to become sellers at the trading deadline, as this underachieving team has let down so many. The Cubs are -19.90 and -9.92 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Tom Gorzelanny will take the mound today, as he is 4-5 with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.41 this year. Chicago is 4-1 in their last 5 games against the National League East. The Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. The Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 1-5 in their last 6 games during game 4 of a series. The Cubs are 1-5 in Gorzelanny's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Chicago is 1-6 in Gorzelanny's last 7 home starts.

Cubs are 5-2 last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 7-3 last 10 home games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies at Cubs
By Marc Lawrence

The Phillies and Cubs conclude their four-game series at Wrigley Park under the Sunday night lights on ESPN.

Booster shot

It’s becoming obvious that the Phillies’ starting pitching may need a boost before the non-waiver trade deadline arrives in two weeks.

Surprisingly, the starting pitching opened the second half better than they have in three years. The rotation had a 3.95 ERA and opponents were hitting .259 against Phillies starters at the All-Star break.

A quick look at the same numbers from the previous three seasons show a 4.99 ERA and .277 average in 2007; 4.48 and .269 in 2008; and 4.98 and .283 in 2009 - when the Phillies won the National League East.

But there is major concern that 47-year-old lefthander Jamie Moyer has allowed 13 earned runs on 12 hits in 8.1 innings for a 14.05 ERA in his last two starts. He now stands at 9-9 and his ERA is 4.88 on the season.

Retread Joe Blanton doesn’t inspire. He’s 3-5 with a 6.21 ERA this campaign.

If GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is unsuccessful hitting the speed dial in hopes of fueling a trade to improve the rotation, don’t be surprised if middle reliever Chad Durbin, recently reactivated after spending three weeks on the DL with a right hamstring injury, settles into the starting rotation.

In addition, lefthander Antonio Bastardo was recently activated from the DL and optioned to Lehigh Valley. He also becomes a viable option.

"I would rather be fresh than tired going into the second half," Durbin said. "We're definitely fresher mentally."

Welcome back

The cleanup hitters from both squads, Ryan Howard of the Phillies and Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs, have been mired in disappointing seasons – until most recently.

Howard, the 125-million dollar man, was hitting .280 with a meager .788 OPS on June 4.

In one month's worth of games, from June 15 to July 15, Howard has hit .327 with a 1.062 OPS. He has nine home runs, three triples and four doubles during that time, and has scored 21 runs to go with 26 RBIs.

In Friday's game against the Cubs, Howard added another home run, his 20th of the season, and his batting average is now up to .298.

Howard’s $17 million counterpart, Ramirez, is finally heating up too after having been stuck in a slump most of the season.

Ramirez hit a solo homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth Friday, sending the Cubs to a 4-3 comeback win over Philadelphia.

"Yeah I feel pretty good at the plate. Even when I make an out, I've been able to hit the ball hard," Ramirez said. "That's a good sign."

It was his fifth homer and 14th RBI in the last eight games. He had three hits to raise his batting average to .220.

"He's staying on the ball well. He's taking good swings at pitches and he's driving the ball. It's big difference from the first half. One of the ingredients that was missing here obviously," Chicago manager Lou Piniella said. "And now it's back."

Don’t count us out

Piniella's Cubs always have been a second-half team. The numbers from his first three seasons verify it.

But Piniella's Cubs have never been this far underwater to start a second half, and it seems as if only a tidal wave can bring them back to the surface.

Not according to Piniella, though.

"Nine games is not insurmountable. I look forward to the challenge, but we've got to get it done on the field. We need to play better baseball than we did the first half. Are we capable? Yes. And I'm hopeful that we will."

In his first three seasons with Chicago, Piniella has used the second half to make a difference, winning 40 or more games each campaign.

They were 41-34 in his first season after the 2007 All-Star break, then 40-26 in their dominating 2008 season. Even last season, when the Cubs fell short of their division-championship goal, they were 40-35 in the second half.

Winning 40 games in the second half would give the 2010 Cubs 79 victories, a moral comeback if nothing else.

According to Piniella, there's one simple key to getting back on track, and that's more consistency from day to day.

"That's what we need: consistency," Piniella said. "When we swung the bats and put runs on the board, we won our share of ballgames. When we don't, we haven't had success."

Here’s the pitch

Philadelphia ace Roy Halladay matches serves with Chicago southpaw stopgap Tom Gorzelanny this evening in an apparent pitching mismatch. Halladay is 3-1 in his last four starts with a 1.39 ERA. He’s pitched well in two career starts against the Cubs, both losses, posting a 3.00 ERA.

The veteran All-Star has struggled of late during the month of July, going 2-8 in his last 10-team starts.

Gorzelanny is 1-6 in his last seven team starts, sporting a 5.66 ERA in the process. The lefthander has split his two career starts against the Phillies, with a 3.88 ERA.

MLB RoundUp For 7/18
By Dan Bebe

National League

Rockies @ Reds (-140) with a total of 8.5
Orlando Cabrera is 5-for-9 off Aaron Cook;
Jonny Gomes is 4-for-6 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Cook;
Brandon Phillips is 6-for-14 with a HR off Cook;
Joey Votto is 4-for-9 off Cook with a HR and 2 RBI.
How Aaron Cook is 2-0 against the Reds lifetime is a bit of a mystery. His ERA against them is 5.12, and as you can see from the player numbers, there are more than a handful of Reds that have hit him hard. He always gives up hits, and the Reds have the sock to make him pay. Wood is coming off 9 shutout innings of a 1-0 loss to the Phils. A young guy like Travis Wood might struggle to come back off such a supreme outing that ended in a loss, or he might get on a roll. Tough to say, but Cook is in trouble, that's one thing that seems fairly likely.

Nationals @ Marlins (-145) with a total of 9
Chris Coghlan is 3-for-5 with an RBI off Stammen before 2010;
Hanley Ramirez was 4-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Stammen before 2010.
Alex Sanabia is a -145 favorite? Pretty telling, I'd say, in how much oddsmakers and the public thinks of Craig Stammen and the Nats on the road. Sanabia's pitch count is still pretty darn low, as he only went 3.1 innings in his first start against the D'backs. Stammen, though, pitched very poorly here in Florida earlier this year, and while he fared better at home the very next start, the simple fact remains: Stammen's not very good.

Astros (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 7
REMATCH ALERT! These two met way the heck back in late April, and Oswalt won that meeting 4-3. Oswalt also creamed the Pirates in his last start before the Break, throwing a 1-hit shutout, and beating Ohlendorf. Maholm has been, as his season and career numbers can back-up, decent against the Astros. He's just decent all over. But Oswalt's 15-7 career mark against the Pirates just makes it too darn tough to fade him. Maholm should pitch alright, but if Houston scores 2-3 runs, that might be enough.

Brewers @ Braves (-180) with a total of 9
Craig Counsell is 10-for-25 with 4 RBI off Lowe since '05;
Corey Hart was 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lowe coming into '10;
Chipper Jones is 5-for-6 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Parra.
The Braves are officially getting big, fat, public lines. This one is all the evidence you need of that. Derek Lowe at nearly a -200 line when his ERA is only a third of a run lower than his opponent. So, for what it's worth, Parra is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA against the Braves lifetime, so this is probably not a great spot to back the dog, and Lowe, who went 6 innings of 2-run ball against the Brewers earlier this season, is 4-1 with a 3.22 mark against them overall. This is a stay-away, for me.

Dodgers (-135) @ Cardinals with a total of 9
Rafael Furcal is 5-for-11 with an RBI off Suppan since '05;
Russ Martin is 4-for-10 off Suppan;
Felipe Lopez is 4-for-8 with 3 RBI off Padilla;
Randy Winn is 3-for-8 with a HR off Padilla.
Aside from a rusty first start off the DL, Padilla has been the Dodgers best starter over the last 3-4 weeks. He dominated the Yankees, Marlins, Giants and Cubs, and the Dodgers have won his last 3 starts in a row. He's 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA against the Cards, and most of the St. Louis regulars haven't seen Padilla before, or haven't seen him since before '05, at the very least. Suppan is 0-5 with a 6.55 ERA on the season, and though his career numbers against the Dodgers are alright, he's been a total flop this year, and I can't help but think LA needs this one more than StL.

D'backs @ Padres (-140) with a total of 7.5
Adam LaRoche is 5-for-10 with an RBI off Correia;
Gerardo Parra is 5-for-12 with 2 RBI off Correia.
This is start number three for each cat against the other club, so you can basically disregard the player numbers from years past. Jackson is 0-2 with a 5.31 lifetime ERA against the Padres, though he did throw 6 shutout innings against them in San Diego after getting clunked in Arizona. Correia had a similar experience, allowing 4 runs to the D'backs in Arizona, but going 5.2 scoreless frames at Petco. The D'backs looked like they didn't want to be playing baseball in the opener of this series, and we'll take a peek at how Saturday's night game shakes out, but Correia posting a 3.60 ERA against the D'backs makes me think this one could be closer and lower-scoring than folks expect, and that bodes poorly for Arizona.

Mets (-120) @ Giants with a total of 7
Once again, I'm going to disregard player numbers in favor of checking out recent trends, and how the pitchers performed against this team this year. Johan Santana rolled, and I mean ROLLED into the All Star Break. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 2 starts (spanning 16 innings), both games the Mets won 3-0. He's 2-0 with a 3.89 ERA against the Giants lifetime, and gave up 4 runs in 7.2 innings this year. Sanchez allowed 4 runs in 7 innings, but gave up 3 homers at CitiField, which is not easy. He's 2-1 with a 4.18 ERA against the Mets in his career, but he's been pretty darn inconsistent over the last month and change. Based on matchup stuff alone, the Giants look like the play, but based on recent pitching trends, Johan looks like a beast.

Phillies (-170) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
Marlon Byrd is 5-for-13 with 2 RBI off Halladay.
Roy Halladay has been a master on the mound in July so far. He's gone 9 innings in both starts, and he's allowed just 1 run this month. So, why should that change? Gorzelanny has actually been on a nice little roll, himself, so if the wind allows, this one could potentially be a low scoring affair. I just have such issue trusting Gorzelanny, even when it seems like he's throwing the ball well. I'd love to try to find a way to back the home dog because of the inflated line, but I just can't. If the wind is blowing in, Halladay could very well go the distance, again. I'm waiting on the total.

American League

Tigers @ Indians with a total of N/A
It seems like the projected starters in this one are still a bit up in the air, thanks to the doubleheader yesterday. I have David Huff on the slate for Cleveland, but that name's been in flux all day. If indeed Huff is getting the nod, he's going to have to do better than the 9 runs (6 earned) he's allowed in 9 innings of work against the Tigers so far this season. Andrew Oliver's shaky MLB run is probably nearing its conclusion, unless he gets things turned around soon. This one might come down to motivation, and the Tigers seemingly need this one more.

Rays @ Yankees (-140) with a total of 8.5
Jason Bartlett was 7-for-18 with a HR and 5 RBI off Pettitte before 2010;
Carlos Pena was 8-for-25 with 4 HR and 6 RBI off Pettitte before 2010;
Ben Zobrist is 4-for-12 with a HR off Pettite;
Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Price.
David Price is 2-0 with a 2.56 ERA against the Yankees, and folks, it is not easy to put up numbers like that against New York. Pettitte is having an incredible year, but his worst start of 2010 came against these very Tampa Bay Rays, by 2 full runs. He gave up 6 runs to Tampa, and hasn't allowed more than 4 in any other start all season long. For Price, his stuff is so wicked that he can make mistakes and still succeed, and that's why you have to give him a nod at this price. I suppose my concern is that the line is high for a reason, but Pettitte is going to draw plenty of money, so let's not overthink it.

Rangers @ Red Sox (-150) with a total of 8.5
Vlad Guerrero was 4-for-10 off Lester before 2010;
Michael Young was 8-for-17 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lester before 2010;
Adrian Beltre was 4-for-10 off Wilson with a HR and 2 RBI before 2010.
I was waiting for this game, because I had this notion that Boston would come to play in the finale, but looking at the line, I worry that this one is inflated on the Boston side. C.J. Wilson is 1-1 with a 1.56 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox, though he hasn't looked that good in July. Lester just keeps rolling along, keeping that ERA comfortably in the 2's. He's 2-0 against the Rangers with a 3.55 ERA, and I happen to believe he pitches fairly well, here. I'm not sure we can lay this chalk, but it's one of the cheaper Lester prices we'll see the rest of the year.

Blue Jays (-140) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Adam Jones is 3-for-10 with a HR off Marcum;
Nick Markakis was 9-for-18 with 5 HR and 6 RBI off Marcum before 2010.
I typed those same player numbers way back in April and May, and Marcum proceeded to dominate the Orioles both times. We might have even unsuccessfully taken a shot on the big dog. Since then, Marcum has evened out a tad, though he still has the changeup to get through most low-to-medium lineups, and only seems to run into trouble with the Rays. Matusz has an ERA near 17 against the Jays, so this is a dangerous spot to back the dog, but not sure I can go on Marcum to pitch well a 3rd time against the O's...

White Sox (-115) @ Twins with a total of 9.5
A.J. Pierzynski was batting .423 in 26 AB with 3 RBI off Blackburn before 2010;
Carlos Quentin is 5-for-16 with a HR off Blackburn;
Alexei Ramirez was batting .421 off Blackburn before 2010;
Joe Mauer was 6-for-18 off Garcia before 2010.
This is one of those Opening lines that's probably going to dance a bit before it settles, and let's be clear - there isn't a ton of "value" on the White Sox side, but that doesn't mean they lose the game. Does that make sense? What I'm trying to get at is that Blackburn has been so horrid that you're now paying a premium to back Freddy Garcia on the road. Blackburn allowed 5 runs in 7.2 innings against the Sox back in April, but his ERA has been on the explosive rise. Garcia has been a beacon of consistency, and has pitched quite well against the Twins twice this season, already. This would be a better lean if Blackburn's numbers weren't driving this line towards Chicago.

Athletics (-120) @ Royals with a total of 9
Gabe Gross is 5-for-10 off Bannister;
Kurt Suzuki is 5-for-14 off Bannister.
This is one of those road fave situations where you'd normally start with the dog and work towards the favorite, but I'm not sure it's going to take long. Mazzaro's been hot, posting 4 straight quality starts, 2 at home and 2 on the road. That's a nice note, since you can't pin his success to any particular mound or venue. Bannister's ERA is up over 5.50, and he's just 1-4 against Oakland in his career. I hate to say it, but I actually would take the short road favorite in a decidedly square move over Bannister and the home dog. Oakland's pitching keeps them in every game, and Mazzaro's been limiting baserunners and throwing well.

Mariners @ Angels (-145) with a total of 8
This is a matchup of two inconsistent pitchers, and that means it's almost for sure a no-play. Vargas was great in one of his starts against the Angels, and marginal in the other. Santana was great in one of his outings against the M's, and pretty crummy in the other. Vargas seems to fluctuate between tremendous and awful every couple of starts, and Santana can throw a complete game shutout just as easily as he can give up 6 runs in 6 innings. The Angels will probably end up winning the game just based on sheer willpower, but the starting pitching edge I will bestow to Seattle.