Sunday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA), Atlanta Braves
This young righthander’s productive return has been a huge lift to the Braves five-man rotation. Jurrjens, Atlanta’s most consistent arm in 2009, went on the shelf for two months at the start of the season but he seems to have put the injury behind him.
The Braves are 4-0 in his four appearances since rejoining the big club at the end of June, and he sports a 2.19 ERA over the same period.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3, 4.29 ERA), Boston Red Sox
Dice-K’s control has been an issue since the talented righty first joined the big leagues. This season has been no different (17 walks in his first 34 2/3 innings).
But the Japanese import has shown better accuracy recently. He’s walked just two batters – compared to 11 strikeouts – in his last two starts and the Red Sox are 5-2 overall in his last seven trips to the bump.
Slumping
Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.94 ERA), Minnesota Twins
Minnesota’s pitching staff looks pretty ugly these days outside of Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Kevin Slowey is one of three starting hurlers who've been consistently terrible over the last month and a half.
Slowey’s 8.37 ERA over his seven starts is only half the problem for Twins backers. Minnesota’s bullpen routinely has to work long innings on Slowey’s scheduled starts because he’s pitched less than six innings in four of those seven trips to the mound.
The Twinkies are 0-4 and the over is 3-1 in his last four appearances.
Anthony Lerew (1-4, 8.54 ERA), Kansas City Royals
It stands to reason that the fifth man on the Royals’ rotation is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Lerew is so bad he makes Brian Bannister and Kyle Davis look like aces.
The 27-year-old righty has allowed 18 earned runs in his last nine innings pitched. That’s an 18.00 ERA for those of you scoring at home.
He’s pitched less than three innings in each of his last two starts and the over has cashed in his last three appearances.
Sunday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The final Sunday in July is loaded with its fair share of late action, including three evening games. The Cardinals and Cubs hook up at Wrigley Field, while the Rangers try to finish off the Angels in Arlington. We'll start at Chavez Ravine with a pair of struggling teams looking to make their move in the NL Wild Card race.
Mets at Dodgers - 4:05 PM EST
Two teams that have decided to play their worst baseball at the wrong possible time conclude a four-game set in Southern California. The Mets are hoping to end this disastrous West Coast swing on a good note after dropping six of seven at San Francisco and Arizona. Los Angeles hasn't played much better in this stretch, losing its first six games following the All-Star Break prior to consecutive 2-0 victories over the Giants and Mets.
Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 3.15 ERA) was jobbed out of a victory his last time out against San Francisco due to bullpen issues and an incorrect interpretation of an obscure baseball rule. The Dodgers' lefty left Wednesday's start with a 5-4 lead, allowing four runs (two earned) and four hits in six innings of work. Jonathan Broxton came in to close the door in the ninth, but following multiple meetings on the mound by acting manager Don Mattingly, Broxton was forced out of the game in favor of George Sherrill. The Dodgers' lefty allowed a two-run double to Andres Torres to give the Giants the lead and the win.
Kershaw is winless since the break, but continues to be L.A.'s ace with a 5-2 mark at home and 4-0 record during the day. The southpaw is 1-0 against New York in two career starts, including a three-hit, seven strikeout performance at Citi Field last July.
Things were looking up for knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (6-4, 2.73 ERA) on June 23, as the journeyman picked up his sixth consecutive victory for the Mets at the back-end of the rotation. Since that win, the former Tennessee Volunteer is 0-4 in five starts, including road losses at last-place clubs Arizona and Washington. Dickey has pitched well despite the defeats, compiling four straight quality starts, but is getting very little run support (four runs the last three outings).
The Mets have played well against the Dodgers by taking four of the first five meetings this season, while limiting Los Angeles to three runs or less four times. The Dodgers are 6-1 the last seven games as a home favorite of at least $1.40.
Blue Jays at Tigers - 6:10 PM EST
The second game of a double-header at Comerica Park pits two talented pitchers who have gone through bumps in the road this season. Detroit is slowly trying to put the pieces back together following a seven-game skid with mid-week wins over Texas and Toronto. The Jays swept the Orioles in Baltimore, but promptly lost two of three at Kansas City and the Thursday opener to Detroit.
The Tigers send out Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.50 ERA), who tries to rebound from a tough outing against the Rangers, allowing nine hits and four earned runs in 7.1 innings of an 8-0 setback. Galarraga caught lightning in a bottle with his near-perfect game in early June against the Indians, as he has delivered just two quality starts in his last seven outings. The Tigers are 5-2 in this span, which includes home wins over the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Orioles.
Jesse Litsch (1-4, 5.79 ERA) finally picked up his first win of the season for Toronto in a 13-1 blowout of Kansas City. Litsch only went 5.2 innings, registering his first victory since September 28, 2008 at Baltimore. The Jays have alternated 'overs' and 'unders' in each of Litsch's seven starts, coming off the easy 'over' against the Royals. Litsch has failed to beat the Tigers in two career outings, while allowing three homers in a 5-1 home loss to Detroit last April.
The Tigers have taken care of their business as a home favorite, going 18-3 in that role starting with Galarraga's gem against Cleveland on June 2. The homer-reliant Jays have been limited to four runs or less in six of the previous eight games.
Cardinals at Cubs - 8:05 PM EST
Three days ago, St. Louis was the hottest team in the National League with an eight-game winning streak and sitting atop the NL Central. Since Thursday afternoon, the Cards are going backwards with three straight losses, including back-to-back scoreless efforts. The Redbirds try to halt their losing ways when they send out former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter to the mound.
Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA) rebounded from two subpar starts prior to the break by beating the Dodgers and Phillies in his last two outings. Both victories came by 7-1 counts, while Carpenter tossed eight innings and allowed one earned run in each win. St. Louis is 6-1 the previous seven starts made by Carpenter against Chicago, including a 7-1 victory at Wrigley Field in late May.
Ryan Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA) has received terrific run support in his last three outings, as the Cubs are averaging 11.3 runs/game during three victories. The right-hander hasn't been dominant in this stretch, compiling just one quality start, but the 'over' has now cashed in five straight outings by Dempster. The most profitable time to back Dempster is at night, as the Cubs are 7-3 in his 10 starts compared to a 2-8 mark under the sun.
The Cubs improved to 3-2 against the Cardinals with Saturday's 6-5 win, as all five meetings have come on the North Side of Chicago. The Cards are 2-3 this season when trying to avoid a sweep, while the Cubs are 2-1 after winning the first two games of a series.
Angels at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST
Texas grabbed a pair of one-run victories in the first two games of this weekend series to open up a seven-game advantage inside the AL West race over Los Angeles. The Halos try to salvage the Sunday night contest, as L.A. is 0-4 this season in the Lone Star State.
Tommy Hunter (7-0, 2.09 ERA) continues to cash when he takes the mound for the Rangers, coming off an 8-0 shutout of the Tigers. The most encouraging sign for Hunter is him able to win outside of Texas with road wins at Detroit and Boston. It's not just about the Rangers' explosive offense carrying Hunter, as the righty has put together six straight quality starts. Hunter has had little success against the Angels, losing both career starts last season.
The Halos called up Trevor Bell (1-1, 6.05 ERA) from Triple-A Salt Lake City to make the Sunday start. This is the right-hander's first start with the big club since last August against the A's. Bell has made 15 relief appearances this season, facing a Rangers' lineup that is batting .298 at home against righties.
The home team is 6-1 in the series this season, while six games have been decided by one run. The 'under' has been the play between these teams, going 4-2-1.
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Tips and Trends
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Twins (-125, O/U 9): Minnesota has dominated nearly everyone in the American League this year, expect for the American League East. The AL East is the only division the Twins struggle against this year at 10-16 SU. Minnesota is 51-46 SU this season, including 21-26 SU on the road. The Twins are -4.21 and -13.61 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. P Kevin Slowey has struggled mightily of late, with the Twins losing his past 3 starts. Slowey will take the mound tonight with a record of 8-5 with an ERA of 4.94 and a WHIP of 1.40 this season. The Twins are 26-55 in their last 81 games against the American League East. Minnesota is 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. The Twins are 6-2 in Slowey's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Minnesota is 25-12 in Slowey's last 37 starts as a favorite. The Twins are 2-5 in Slowey's last 7 road starts against a team with a losing record. The Twins are 3-13 in Slowey's last 16 starts against the American League East. Minnesota is 0-5 in Slowey's last 5 Sunday starts.
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Twins are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Key Injuries - 1B Justin Morneau (concussion) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Orioles: Baltimore fans have had little to cheer about this season, as they have the worst record in baseball at 31-65 SU. The Orioles are only 18-31 SU at home this season, the only team in baseball with less than 20 home wins. Baltimore is -18.98 and -20.16 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Surprisingly, Baltimore has won 3 of their 6 games against the Twins this season. P Jacob Arrieta will make the home start this afternoon, as he is 3-2 with an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.53 this year. The Orioles are 23-51 in their last 74 games against a right-handed starter. Baltimore is 30-69 in their last 99 games as an underdog. The Orioles are 22-51 in their last 73 Sunday games. Baltimore is 17-41 in their last 58 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the American League Central. Baltimore is 1-6 in their last 7 home games against a right-handed starter.
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Orioles are 2-7 last 9 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games against the American League Central.
Key Injuries - C Matt Wieters (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Cardinals (-116, O/U na): St. Louis has lost their past 3 games, with their offense to blame. St. Louis has only scored 5 runs in their past 3 games combined. As a result of their 3 games losing streak, the Cardinals have fallen into a tie with the Reds in the National League Central. St. Louis is 54-44 SU this season, including 20-28 SU on the road. The Cardinals are -5.50 and -9.59 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. P Chris Carpenter will take the mound tonight as one of the true elite pitchers in baseball. Carpenter is 11-3 with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.17 this season. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 8-2 in their last 10 games on grass. The Cardinals are 3-10 in their last 13 games during game 3 of a series. St. Louis is 8-2 in Carpenter's last 10 road starts against a team with a losing record. St. Louis is 45-15 in Carpenter's last 60 starts against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 57-22 in Carpenter's last 79 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are 52-21 in Carpenter's last 73 starts against the National League Central.
Cardinals are 3-7 last 10 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Under is 8-3-1 last 12 games against the National League Central.
Key Injuries - 2B Felipe Lopez (undisclosed) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Cubs: Chicago is starting to show signs of life, as they are playing with urgency that hasn't been seen this year. Chicago is hoping to sweep the National League Central leading Cardinals to climb back into the playoff chase. The Cubs are 45-53 SU this season, 9 games behind the division leaders. The Cubs are -19.62 and -9.26 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. P Ryan Dempster has been winning of late, and he will look for more of the same in front of a national audience. Dempster is 8-7 with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.25 this year. The Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 games during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 7-3 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter. The Cubs are 10-22 in their last 32 games against the National League Central. Chicago is 4-1 in Dempster's last 5 starts overall. The Cubs are 2-5 in Dempster's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Cubs are 2-9 in Dempster's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.
Cubs are 4-1 last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in their last 5 Sunday games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Cubs
By MARC LAWRENCE
The Cubs look to pull off a series sweep when they host the Cardinals in the finale of a three-game set at Wrigley Field this evening.
What goes up…
St. Louis recently put together an eight-game winning streak, their longest in six years. Now, they’ve started to nose-dived.
After a major-league record 2,370 games without suffering consecutive shutouts, the Cards were blanked twice in succession, 2-0 at home Wednesday against Philadelphia and 5-0 here against the Cubs in the series opener Friday.
To make matters worse, the Cardinals had only singles in both games.
Saturday’s 6-5 defeat extended the Redbirds losing skid to three. A loss tonight would match a St. Louis season-high four-game losing streak this campaign.
"We were in contention going into the break, so it's not like we can fall asleep at the wheel," said manager Tony La Russa.
"We teach the more pressure, the better we are," La Russa went on to say. "We had a pretty good first six weeks. I just think sometimes you struggle. We had some good periods, a sluggish period, and another good period. We just have to maintain it. It's not automatic."
The Cardinals are 4-1 in games off three straight losses this season.
Just chilling
With all the talk that the Cardinals are primed to make a move for Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt, La Russa tossed some cold water on all the trade rumors.
"There are a lot of clubs out there looking for help," La Russa said. "Our assumption is that we are not going to get any, so we'll just win with what we got."
With starting pitchers Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny still on the disabled list, it appears that Oswalt would be the perfect complement to Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia and tonight’s hurler, Chris Carpenter.
That trio has combined for 47 of the team's 60 quality starts.
"We just do the best we can," La Russa said. "Right now, there's uncertainty about Penny, but Lohse is really making progress. So with Lohse out, do we need another pitcher? I don't know. In the meantime, the games count."
Here we go again
The Cubs haven’t been above .500 the entire season.
They hired a new hitting coach in the offseason, yet some of the best hitters from seasons past are having career-low numbers.
But now, after going 6-3 after the All-Star break, dreams of a second-half surge are surfacing once again in Chicago.
To reiterate from our note last Sunday, Lou Piniella's Cubs always pick it up in the second half of the season.
In 2007, Piniella led the Cubs to a 41-34 second half record; in 2008, a 40-26 record; and in 2009, a 40-33 record. Yes, Lou Piniella coaches the Cubs well in the second half.
Sure, there are immediate concerns. Carlos Silva has been struggling in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs in just 2 and 1/3 innings, hot-headed Carlos Zambrano is on the suspended list and the bullpen - sans Sean Marshall - is creaky.
The good news is Tom Gorzelanny has gone 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA since Zambrano went schitzo. Derrek Lee owns a seven-game hitting streak and Tyler Colvin has launched three home runs in his last 16 at-bats.
Toss in Aramis Ramirez’ .400 batting average with nine home runs, 24 RBIs, and 18 runs since July 5 and you can understand the optimism that now permeates this clubhouse.
Could the send Lou Piniella off in style or is this just another wet dream soon to dry up? Stay tuned.
Torre pines
Speaking of Piniella, Los Angeles Dodger skipper Joe Torre’s name has emerged as a possible candidate to replace the retiring Cubs’ manager at season's end.
"I don't want to rule anything out… but you're certainly crazy if you don't listen to things,” Torre responded.
Torre is in the third and final year of his contract with the Dodgers, and during spring training he asked the club to put off discussions on a possible extension. He turned 70 last week, and has said he'll decide his future in the next month or so.
"I enjoy this organization (the Dodgers), I really have," Torre said. "Has there been some stuff going on, distractions and all that? But, hell, after coming from New York, that's no big deal, distraction-wise."
Matching serves
Ryan Dempster toes the rubber against Chris Carpenter in a matchup of quality righthanders this evening.
The Cubs are 9-11 behind Dempster this season but have emerged victorious in each of his last three starts.
Dempster is 6-10 in his career team starts versus St. Louis but is 4-1 at home against the Redbirds. He is also 11-4 in his last 15 team starts during the month of July.
The Cardinals are 15-6 in Carpenter’s 21 starts this year, but just 5-4 away.
The All-Star staff ace is 13-5 in 18 career team starts against the Cubs, including 7-4 at Wrigley Field. Carpenter also enjoys hurling in July, going 16-4 in his last 20 team starts.