Sunday at the Park
By Kevin Rogers
The final Sunday baseball card of July possesses a handful of matchups that have implications inside the NL Wild Card race. Three NL Central teams (Cardinals, Astros, and Brewers) take on inter-division foes, while the Cubs and Reds wrap up their series at Wrigley. There are four afternoon affairs that we'll focus on to make bettors money.
Braves at Brewers (2:05 PM EST)
A pair of nine-game winners take the mound at Miller Park, as Derek Lowe and Braden Looper get the call. Six teams are within three games of the top spot in the NL Wild Card race, but the team that has to make the biggest jump is Milwaukee. The Brewers enter Sunday's action four games behind the Rockies for the Wild Card lead. Ken Macha's team has 22 games remaining against the top six teams for the final playoff spot following Sunday's contest.
Lowe has been terrific lately, going at least six innings in each of his last three starts, all wins. The Braves righty has struggled mightily during the day this season, going 1-2 with an ERA of 7.98.
Looper's home numbers are solid, compiling a 4-1 mark, while the Brewers have won seven of his 11 starts at Miller Park. The right-hander has had success against Atlanta, facing the Braves twice last season as a member of the Cardinals. Looper allowed 13 hits and five earned runs in 14 innings pitched, both Cardinal victories.
Milwaukee has been awful on Sundays recently, losing seven straight. The Brewers have been a great 'under' play in day home games against right-handed starters, finishing 'under' the total in 10 of 12 contests.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed the Brewers as a short favorite of $1.05, while the total is set at 8 ½.
Mets at Astros (2:05 PM EST)
The Astros wrap up their six-game homestand, as they look to keep climbing the ladder in both the Wild Card and NL Central race. The Mets, meanwhile, continue to stumble on without the vital pieces of their lineup. New York did rebound nicely with a double-digit outburst in Saturday's 10-3 blowout of Houston.
Brian Moehler has solidified his spot in the Houston rotation, going 5-1 in his last six decisions dating back to the start of June. The veteran right-hander is off consecutive home victories over the Nationals and Cardinals, allowing two earned runs. The Astros have finished 'under' the total in five of seven Moehler's home starts.
Livan Hernandez is coming off a win in his last start at Washington, improving his record to 6-5. The Mets have dropped six of Hernandez's last seven outings, but seeing the competition he has faced, it's understood. The Mets lost to the Yankees twice, Cardinals, Phillies, and Dodgers in this span, all division leaders. However, Hernandez will face an Astros offense that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 15 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
The Astros are a hefty $1.60 home favorite according to LVSC, while the total is listed at 9.
Giants at Rockies (3:10 PM EST)
These two NL West rivals continue to flip-flop as leaders of the Wild Card race, with Colorado up one game over San Francisco after the Rockies beat the Giants on Saturday. The Rockies will send out nine-game winner Aaron Cook to the mound, as he looks to change his luck against the Giants.
Colorado is just 4-9 in Cook's last 13 starts against San Francisco, including a 2-7 mark at Coors Field. To take it a step further, the Rockies are 2-7 this season against division opponents when Cook takes the mound, but he has not faced the Giants this season.
Cook has been an 'over' machine as of late, hitting the 'over' in four straight starts, and seven of his last nine. Since Colorado's massive hot streak that began in St. Louis in early June, Cook is 6-0 his last six decisions. The Rockies have given Cook plenty of support during this span, scoring at least five runs in eight of his last nine outings.
Ryan Sadowski's career got off to a promising start, with wins over the Brewers and Astros. However, the Giants right-hander has taken a step backwards, allowing 10 earned runs in 8.2 innings pitched against the Marlins and Braves, both losses. Sadowski's caused wasn't helped by the Giants fielding a weak lineup in his last outing, but he was touched up for eight hits and eight earned runs in less than four innings of work at Atlanta.
LVSC has the Rockies as substantial 'chalk,' at $2.10, while the total is set at 9.
Twins at Angels (3:35 PM EST)
The red-hot Angels are finally taking control of the AL West race as expected, looking to finish off the struggling Twins. It's been a trip from hell to the Golden State for Ron Gardenhire's club, dropping two of three to the A's, while losing the first three to the Halos.
Ervin Santana has bounced back after a rocky start, winning his last two decisions on the road. The Angels righty didn't face the two greatest offenses in the league (Royals and A's), but still allowed six earned runs in 14 innings of work. Santana's last two outings against Minnesota have been positive, delivering quality starts in two wins over the Twins last season.
Anthony Swarzak is back in the rotation for the time being, off a no-decision at Oakland (Twins won the game in extra-innings). The Twins right-hander has nailed the 'under' in six of his seven starts thanks to lousy run support. Minnesota has scored 13 runs in Swarzak's last six outings, going 2-4.
The Angels are a $1.50 home favorites, with the total set at 9 ½ according to LVSC.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball
By Judd Hall
It looked like the Tigers were going to run away with the American League Central about a month ago. Fast forward to the present and Detroit is locking horns with the White Sox in a much tighter race. These rivals are going to finish up their four-game set on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball at 8:05 p.m. EDT.
If you’re looking to pinpoint one of the reasons why Detroit fell back to the pack in its division, then you’ll want to focus on the offense. They aren’t exactly lacking pop for the year with a .257 team batting average and 443 runs scored. However, over the last week the Tigers are hitting a paltry .219 and crossed home plate 22 times.
So where did the Tigers’ offense go? You could make a reasonable case that it went away without Carlos Guillen. Detroit’s jack of all trades (outfielder, third baseman, designated hitter) had been out of the lineup since May 4 with a shoulder injury. Since returning from the disabled list on Friday, Guillen is hitting .429 with one homer in his first two games back in the lineup.
Guillen’s return will no doubt make Miguel Cabrera even more dangerous since opposing pitchers won’t be able to walk the first baseman as much as usual. Cabrera leads the club in hitting with a .326 average to go along with 19 four-baggers and 52 runs batted in.
Detroit will entrust the starting duties to rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) on Sunday night. Porcello snapped a two-game skid last Tuesday with a 9-7 home victory against the Mariners. He’s going to need to do a better job though because giving up five earned runs on five hits in just five innings of work. Although that might be all he has in the tank right now since he’s averaged around five innings in each of his last five starts, posting an earned run average of 6.38 in this stretch.
Folks might want to believe that the White Sox are on their way to greatness after seeing Mark Buehrle’s perfect game last Thursday. But that gem doesn’t account for Chicago losing five of its last eight games.
The perfect game also doesn’t help the ChiSox at the plate as they’re hitting .226 with 13 strikeouts and a total of 25 runners left on base in the last two games of this series. Chicago’s top hitter during the last week has been backstop A.J. Pierzynski, who is hitting .350 with one RBI to his credit. Jermaine Dye leads the club over the last seven days with six RBI, but is batting a lowly .167 in that time frame.
Chicago will hand the ball over to Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00 ERA) in this contest. This is Richard’s first full season with the big club and the year has been serviceable. As a starter, however, Richard has not been at all impressive with an ERA of 10.39 as a starter. The Pale Hose have gone just 6-6 in his 12 total starts. He’s only started once against the Tigers, gave up three earned runs on five hits in just 4.2 innings…Chicago lost that game on June 8, 5-4.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line with the Tigers as $1.55 home favorites (risk $155 to win $100) and a total of 9 ½. Although, you’ll be able to find Detroit as a $1.50 home “chalk” at some other betting shops with the total staying the same.
The season series has gone to Detroit as they’ve won seven of the 11 battles thus far. Bettors on the home team have won the last four games. However, the Tigers are 4-1 against their rivals at Comerica Park this season.
When starting your handicapping of this game, you can tell that these are true pair of Sunday drivers. The Tigers are 5-10 and Chicago is 6-9 on Sundays this season.
The White Sox are not great against right-handed pitchers in nighttime road games, as evidenced by a 9-12 record during the 2009 campaign.
You’re going to be hard pressed to find a better club to back when at home against a southpaw than the Tigers. Detroit is 12-2 against left-handers at Comerica Park this season, going 7-1 in primetime affairs.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: White Sox at Tigers
By Marc Lawrence
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-142, 9.5)
A key clash in the tight American League Central takes place under the ESPN lights Sunday night when the Tigers host the White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit in a battle of division leaders.
Sunday’s game matches Chicago left-hander Clayton Richard (3-3 5.00 ERA) against Detroit right-hander Rick Porcello (9-6 4.40 ERA) in a battle of young arms looking to re-assert themselves.
2-1 Oddity
Heading into this pivotal four-game series, the Tigers were riding high atop the AL Central until a string of 2-1 losses allowed the White Sox an opportunity to close the gap.
Detroit’s 2-1 loss to Seattle Thursday marked its fourth loss in the previous five games - all by the score of 2-1.
"If you score one run a game, you aren't going to win," Tiger manager Jim Leyland told reporters. "I don't care how good your pitching is. You can have three (Sandy) Koufaxes and three (Don) Drysdales, you're still not going to win. Let me make it real simple for you… score one run a game, you lose - 99.9 percent of the time, probably."
Bend it like Beckham
White Sox 3B Gordon Beckham has been a pleasant surprise for manager Ozzie Guillen.
After being a 2008 first-round selection, Beckham has made a quick ascent through the White Sox system to become a starter. Guillen admits he never thought the former Georgia star would make an impact so quickly.
"I never thought this kid was going to play this well this fast. The problems he has at third base, we knew that was going to come because he never played there before. This guy is cold blood. He's not afraid, he's cocky in a good way, and it helps him,” Guillen told reporters.
While Beckham's defense is still a task in progress, (he’s switching from shortstop to third), he was hitting .358 BA with 23 RBIs in his previous 32 games entering this series.
No Halladay here
Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi was overheard on his cell phone earlier this week asking for Dave Dombrowski, his counterpart with the Detroit Tigers.
When asked about the call, Ricciardi responded by saying it was "Not about Roy Halladay. Something else."
Meanwhile the Pale Hose interest in Halladay has also made news. The reality of consummating a trade, however, is slim-to-none.
"To make that work would be a lot of money and a lot of players involved. It's nice to say we need this guy or that guy, but it's not easy (to make trades). I don't think we'll give up half the organization for one guy," Guillen told the press.
Tale of the tape
The 20-year old rookie Porcello recorded his ninth victory this season when he defeated the Mariners 9-7 Tuesday. Porcello coughed up two homers as he allowed five runs on nine hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out four.
He is 11-6 in his 17-team starts with the Tigers with a 1.48 WHIP, including 6-2 at home (all this year). But he’s just 1-2 with a 9.47 ERA in his last three starts. Like his first-year counterpart, Ricky Romero of Toronto, Porcello appears to be hitting a rookie wall.
Chicago’s Richard allowed just four hits over a career-high eight innings in a 3-2 home loss against Tampa Bay Tuesday. He walked two and struck out seven. Richard was 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his previous five starts.
The large lefty has won six of his 13 team starts this season with a 1.51 WHIP, but is 0-3 his last three outings with a 7.86 ERA. He is also 1-4 with an 8.43 ERA in July and 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA on Sundays his career team starts.
The bottom line
Neither pitcher brings a lot to like into this fray. Both are unraveling, one a rookie that is not pressure-tested, the other a ‘tweener. One is not likely to out pitch the other.
Instead, let’s take advantage of the fact that both teams have been dead unders to this point of the season. Because of the value they bring, and the fact that neither hurler is in impressive form, look for a well-lit scoreboard tonight. Over and out.
Tigers, White Sox finish series
By AllStar.com
Chicago White Sox (50-48) At Detroit Tigers (52-44)
Date: Sunday July 26th
Time: 08:05 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Tigers -148 / W/Sox +138
Total: 9 ½ Over +100 / Under -120
W/Sox Road Record: 23-25
Tigers Home Record: 31-15
W/Sox Last 10: 5-5
Tigers Last 10: 5-5
Pitchers:
Clayton Richard (CWS) 3-3 / 5.00 ERA / 63 K’s / 1.53 WHIP
Rick Porcello (DET) 9-5 / 4.40 ERA / 51 K’s / 1.49 WHIP
The Battle for the A.L. Central takes center stage from Comerica Park on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.
The Tigers are 7-4 this season versus the White Sox (50-48), who couldn't carry over the momentum from Mark Buerhle’s Perfect Game on Thursday. The Sox have dropped the first three of a four game series in Detroit against the Tigers.
The Tigers won both ends of a doubleheader Friday, 5-1 in the matinee and 4-3 in the nightcap. That gave Detroit a two-game lead over Chicago in the AL Central standings after the teams entered the day tied for first place. Detroit (52-44) now has a three-game lead and could increase it to four with a sweep this weekend.
Bobby Jenks blew a 3-2 lead Saturday in the ninth and the Tigers won in 10 innings 4-3 to increase their A.L. Central Division Lead to three games.
Having Carlos Guillen back after missing more then 2 1/2 months with a sore shoulder could provide a spark for Detroit. He went 3-for-7 on Friday and homered for the first time since Aug. 16, 2008.
Guillen is expected to be back at designated hitter after playing both ends of Friday's doubleheader. ...
Miguel Cabrera is hitting .328 with 19HR’s, 52 RBI’s, and a .547 slugging percentage.
Placido Polanco is batting .474 (9-for-19) with four runs scored and five RBIs through five games of this home stand.
Four of the Tigers' five losses since the All-Star break have been by 2-1 scores. It's hard to lose four 2-1 games in a stretch of five games but the Tigers did that, losing two apiece to the Yankees and Mariners.
The White Sox do rely on the long ball and having Carlos Quinten back in the line up should help the White Sox bring some added pop. Carlos Quinten is 5-17 hitting .294 in his four games back from a two month stay on the DL but has yet to hit the long ball.
Jim Thome is hitting .254 and has three Hr’s and eight RBI’s since the break , the slugging DH hit his 17th homer in the second game for Chicago, but is 1-for-15 in his last five games.
Jermaine Dye added a two-run shot for the White Sox in the nightcap. He is 4-for-26 (.154) in his last seven games. Dye is hitting .290 with 22 Hr’s and 62 RBI in 2009.
Paul Konerko is hitting .298 with 18Hr’s and 64 RBI’s, and has really found his swing in 2009 after a rotten 2008 campaign.
Rick Porcello (9-6) has a 9.00 era in July and has showed the rust of nearly two weeks off when he took the mound Tuesday against the Mariners, giving up five runs over as many innings. He allowed nine hits and was inconsistent with his pitches. Sunday should be a much better barometer of his second-half form as he has a chance to get back into a routine between starts before he faces the White Sox for the first time in his career. Porcello continues to slide with his whopping 2.13 WHIP over his last five starts, none of which has lasted six full innings. Porcello has only gone seven innings in three of his seventeen starts this season.
Clayton Richard threw a career best eight innings Tuesday against the Rays. He exited the game with a 2-1 lead but didn't earn the win after Bobby Jenks blew his third save of the season in the ninth inning. The one run Richard allowed was the fewest since shutting out the Brewers over five innings on June 20. Richard has made two appearances (one start) against the Tigers this season and has struggled. He's surrendered three runs on seven hits and five walks over five innings of work. Richard broke a streak of poor starts with an eight-inning effort against the Rays Tuesday, but that may not be enough to save his job. The White Sox would prefer to use Bartolo Colon as their No. 5 starter and utilize Richard as the second lefty out of the 'pen.
Betting Trends:
White Sox are 1-7 in their last eight road games
White Sox are 1-5 in their last six games against the Tigers
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five games between the two teams
Tigers are 16-4 in their last 20 home games
Tigers are 6-1 in Rick Porcello’s last seven starts
The UNDER is 42-18 in the Tigers last 60 games
Sunday's streaking and slumping starters
By Covers.com
Streaking
Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves)
The 12-year veteran had become a staple of the “Slumping” section as June was easily one of the worst months of his career.
But the 36 year old appears to be preparing for a late playoff push with Atlanta. He has turned in three straight quality starts by keeping the ball down and making opponents hit into his solid defense. And it’s no coincidence he has recorded nearly twice as many groundouts as flyouts the past three games.
Lowe (9-7, 4.26 ERA) was great in his most recent start, allowing just one run in six innings and most importantly walking only one.
“He used that sinker an awful lot. He got groundballs and got some strikeouts, too,” Atlanta manager Bobby Cox told the Associated Press. “I think he’s back to normal again.”
Brian Moehler (Houston Astros)
No one will confuse the 37 year old with an inning-eating ace. But Moehler’s solid play at the end of the rotation has been a huge reason for the Astros surging back into the playoff race.
Moehler (7-5, 4.92 ERA) has turned in four straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since June 9, a span of seven starts. The right-hander hasn’t been dominant – opponents are batting .288 BA and he has struck out just 56 against 27 walks – but he has given his team a chance to win during the dog days of summer.
In his most recent outing, a 3-2 win over the division-leading Cardinals, he gave up both runs on six hits over 6 2-3 innings as he struck out five.
“I’m more upset with the walks than anything else,” Moehler told the Associated Press. “I don’t like throwing a lot of pitches out. Too many walks, and strikeouts just come with the territory. To me, a couple of strikeouts and maybe no walks would have been better.”
Slumping
Micah Owings (Cincinnati Reds)
The right-hander has a basic goal on Sunday: try not to pick up an NL-leading 11th loss of the season.
Owings (6-10, 5.33 ERA) has been nothing short of awful his past two starts. He has failed to pitch past the fifth inning in each of those outings, yielding a combined 14 earned runs on 17 hits. To make matters worse, he also has allowed six walks and three homers over that span.
And the Cubs are a team he doesn’t want to face on Sunday. In two starts against them this season, he is 0-2 and has given up a total of 10 hits and seven run in just 10 2-3 innings.
“It was a frustrating night any way you look at it,” Owings told the Associated Press.
John Smoltz (Boston Red Sox)
The future hall of famer has yet to find his form after returning from the disabled list and debuting late last month.
Smoltz (1-3, 6.31 ERA) hasn’t made it past the sixth inning in any of his five starts and has struggled to find his fastball consistently. And while he isn’t walking many batters, the 42 year old is allowing opponents to hit .303 against him.
In Smoltz’s most recent outing, a 6-3 loss to Texas, he gave up all the runs in just 5 2-3 innings on nine hits, including three homers.
“I’m frustrated. I’m pleased with the way I’m throwing the baseball, but the results have been awful. They haven’t matched the effort,” Smoltz told the Associated Press. “I’ll have a hard time sleeping.”
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (53-47) at Philadelphia (55-40)
The Cardinals send righty Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia as they try to get the rubber match of this three-game set against the Phillies and Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24).
Both teams have scored blowout wins in the first two games of the series, with the Cardinals grabbing the 8-1 win on Friday, followed by Philadelphia’s 14-6 drubbing Saturday. The Phillies have taken three of four from the Cardinals this season and seven of nine dating back to last year.
It’s been tough going lately for St. Louis, which is currently on slides of 5-7 overall, 2-4 on its current road trip, 1-5 as a ‘dog, 2-5 on the road against winning teams and 1-5 as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is on a plethora of positive streaks that include 16-5 overall, 52-25 following a win, 16-5 as a favorite, 13-3 at home, 69-31 on Sundays and 38-18 against the N.L. Central.
Wellemeyer comes into this one with a mediocre 3-3 record and a 6.14 ERA on the highway. At Houston on Tuesday he allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-6 loss. In his last four roadies, Wellemeyer has allowed at least four earned runs, and the Cardinals are just 1-3 in those four outings.
Wellemeyer had mixed results in two starts against the Phillies last year, holding them to one run in six innings on Aug. 3 after allowing eight runs in 3 1/3 innings on June 13. With Wellemeyer on the hill, St. Louis is on slides of 0-6 on Sunday, 1-4 when he’s on the road against a winning team and 1-4 when he follows a loss.
Blanton has been spectacular lately, going 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Cubs to one run on five hits in seven innings on Tuesday, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Phillies prevailed 4-1 in 13 innings. The veteran right-hander has allowed two runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last three contests, all Phillies victories.
Blanton has had two strong career starts against the Cardinals, allowing a combined two runs on eight hits over 13 innings as the Phils won both on the road, including a 6-1 rout on May 4. With Blanton tossing, Philadelphia is on streaks of 17-8 overall and 12-4 at home.
When the Cards give the ball to Wellemeyer, they are on “under” streaks of 8-3 on the road, 6-2-1 on Sunday, 11-3 against winning teams and 5-1 when he’s a road ‘dog. With Blanton pitching, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-1 at home, 4-0-1 overall, 5-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 5-0 when he gets four days of rest.
As a team, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 8-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 7-1 against right-handed starters and 6-2 on the road against teams with winning marks. Also, Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 31-15-2 against the N.L. Central, 23-10-2 following a win, 6-1 in the third game of a series and 5-0 on Sundays. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Philly, the lone exception being Saturday’s game that flew over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (50-48) at Detroit (52-44)
Looking to make it a four-game sweep over the rival White Sox, the Tigers send right-hander Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) to the mound opposite Chicago lefty Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00) at Comerica Park in Detroit in a nationally televised contest.
The Tigers followed Friday’s doubleheader sweep with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Saturday to run their record to 7-4 against the White Sox this season, including 4-1 in the Motor City.
Chicago is on several slides, including 0-4 on the road, 17-37 on the road against teams with winning records, 4-9 on Sundays, 5-17 in the fourth game of a series, 0-7 on the road against right-handed starters and 0-4 against the A.L. Central. Meanwhile, Detroit is on a slew of positive streaks that include 16-5 at home, 20-7 as a home favorite, 11-4 on Sundays, 14-3 at home against southpaws and 4-0 against the A.L. Central.
Richard is 0-2 in his last three games with a 7.82 ERA but he did look good Tuesday against the Rays, allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings of a 3-2 loss. However, prior to that start he’s allowed five runs or more in five straight outings, three of which he didn’t get past the fourth inning. He faced the Tigers on June 8 and gave up three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings of a 5-4 loss. With Richard on the hill, the White Sox are on slides of 1-4 on the road against winning teams and 3-7 when they’ve lost the previous game.
Porcello has also struggled of late, going 1-2 in his last three outings with a 9.45 ERA. On Tuesday, Seattle knocked him around for five runs on nine hits in five innings, but his offense bailed him out with a 9-7 win. He’s given up five runs or more in three of his last four outings, three of which were losses. With Porcello pitching, the Tigers are on streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-1 when he’s a home favorite, 4-1 when he gets four days of rest and 4-1 when he faces a winning team.
When Richard toes the rubber, Chicago has topped the total in four of six overall, four of seven as a road ‘dog and four of six against the A.L. Central. As a team, the White sox are on “under” runs of 7-0 overall, 6-0 as a ‘dog, 5-0 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “under” streaks of 4-1 when Porcello faces the A.L. Central, 42-18 overall, 5-1 on Sundays, 10-1 against winning teams, 21-8-1 against the A.L. Central and 36-16-2 following a win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 44-20-4 in the last 68 clashes in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
Runs at a Premium!!
By SportsPic
Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays complete their three-game set Sunday in what has the markings of a low scoring affair. Jays starter Brett Cecil (3-1, 4.67) in great form hasn't allowed a run the past two trips to the mound and should have little trouble handcuffing Rays who've scored >4 runs only once in eight attempts going 7-1 'Under'. Rays Jeff Niemann (9-4, 3.61) allowing 2 or less runs in each of his last four starts does the same to Jays who've have managed >4 runs only three times the past twelve games notching 9 'Under' 2 'Over' 1 'Push'. Consider an 'Under' (9) knowing the 'Under' is a solid 18-7 last 25 meetings in Toronto, 6-3 last nine meetings, Jays 10-2-2 'Under' last fourteen at Rogers Center, Rays 17-6 'Under' last twenty-two, 8-2 'Under' last ten vs division rivals.