Sunday's Slate
By Kevin Rogers
The weekend wraps up with a handful of series involving teams battling it out for playoff positioning. The American League leaders in the Wild Card race, the Boston Red Sox, go for a series victory in Arlington against the Rangers.
Red Sox at Rangers (2:05 PM EST)
The top two teams in the AL Wild Card chase wrap up their three-game set at Ameriquest Field. The pitching matchup features a pair of young right-handers, as Dustin Nippert and Junichi Tazawa take the hill.
Nippert (3-1, 3.62 ERA) makes his sixth start of the season, coming off a 10 strikeout effort his last time out, a loss at Cleveland. Nippert has made only one home start this season, but it came against these Red Sox. The righty held Boston to one run and five hits in 5.2 innings of work, as the Rangers won, 3-1. The 'under' has been a profitable play with Nippert on the mound, hitting in four of his five starts.
Tazawa (1-1, 4.05 ERA) allowed three runs (one earned) in five innings against the Tigers in his first career start on Tuesday, a 7-5 victory. To refresh everyone's memory, that game featured the Kevin Youkilis/Rick Porcello brawl, which started when Tazawa drilled Miguel Cabrera with a pitch earlier in the contest.
The Rangers have been 'under' machines all season long, hitting the 'under' in 22 of their last 26 games as a home favorite. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are 18-8-1 to the 'under' their last 27 road contests against right-handed starters.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Rangers as a $1.20 home favorites, with the total set at 10 ½ (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'under.')
Rockies at Marlins (1:35 PM EST)
Following Saturday night's rain-out, the Rockies and Marlins play two on Sunday, with plenty on the line. Florida held off Colorado on Friday night, 6-5, behind Josh Johnson's 12th victory. The Rockies begin the day two games ahead of the Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.
Colorado sends out Aaron Cook (10-4, 3.93 ERA), who makes his first start since a loss at Philadelphia on August 6. Cook suffered a toe injury, and actually benefited from the rain-out by getting an extra day of rest. Cook has performed well on the road, going 6-3 away from Coors Field. However, the Rockies are just 12-11 in Cook's 23 starts. Cook beat the Marlins at home earlier this season, allowing four hits and two runs in six innings.
Rick VandenHurk (2-1, 4.15 ERA) has pitched well in two home starts this season, giving up nine hits and four earned runs, as the Marlins are 1-1 in the righty's two home outings. Florida has been on a tear recently, winning seven of eight, while scoring six runs or more seven times in this stretch. The 'over' has been a great play for the Marlins lately, hitting in nine of the last ten games.
The Rockies are a $1.10 road 'chalk,' while the total is set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over') according to LVSC.
Astros at Brewers (2:05 PM EST)
One week after the Astros took two of three from the Brewers in Houston, Milwaukee has turned the tables, going for the series sweep Sunday afternoon.
The Brewers send out Braden Looper (10-6, 4.99 ERA), who has actually had less success at home as opposed to the road. Milwaukee is 7-6 in Looper's 13 starts at Miller Park, as the righty has allowed five earned runs in each of his last three home outings. Looper faced the Astros five times last season as a member of the Cardinals, as St. Louis dropped four of his five starts against Houston.
Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.87 ERA) was touched up by the Marlins in his last start, giving up nine hits and six earned runs in five innings of work. Houston lost 9-8 in extra-innings, as Oswalt made his first start after missing two turns with a back injury. That loss snapped a six-game win streak in Oswalt's previous six outings. The Astros veteran was on the losing side of a 4-3 decision against the Brewers on May 21, allowing ten hits and three earned runs in 6.1 innings. This is Oswalt's first start at Miller Park since September 3, 2007, when the Astros beat the Brewers, 9-7.
LVSC has installed the Brewers as a $1.10 home favorite, while the total is set at 9.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies at Braves
By Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-120, 8)
A key clash in the National League East pennant chase takes center stage when Atlanta hosts Philadelphia at Turner Field Sunday night.
The Braves send surging right-hander Javier Vazquez (10-7 2.90 ERA) to the hill against left-handed Philly phenom J.A. Happ (8-2 2.75 ERA).
Trading places
Braves 1B Andy LaRoche was traded twice at midseason, first from Atlanta to Boston and then back to Atlanta. He played in six games for the Red Sox, batting .263 BA with a homer, two doubles and three RBI.
The Red Sox decided they needed Victor Martinez and were willing to re-ship LaRoche back to Atlanta as part of a three-way deal.
"I feel like I've never left this place," LaRoche told reporters. "For the most part, it just feels like I took a break and came back. I'm never sure anymore.”
LaRoche went on to elaborate, saying "I'm not unpacking yet. But I think with the deadline past, chances are pretty good that I'm staying here."
Francisco treat
When Philly OF Ben Francisco homered to lead off the 12th inning against Cubs closer Kevin Gregg in a 4-3 Philadelphia victory over Chicago Tuesday night, it put more than a smile on manager Charlie Manuel’s face.
Gregg had entered the contest with a 0.79 career ERA against the Phils. Francisco was acquired along with LHP Cliff Lee in a trade with the Indians just prior to the trade deadline last month.
“He can play all three outfield positions, and he can spell any of those guys out there,” Manuel beamed, referring to Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. “I’m going to try and get him in the lineup when I can.”
Alternative measures
An array of injuries to the Philadelphia pitching staff signaled the acquisitions of Lee and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez.
Former starters Antonio Bastardo (strained left shoulder) and Brett Myers (torn labrum in right hip), along with relief pitcher J.C. Romero (left forearm strain), all currently reside on the DL.
Neither Bastardo nor Myers figures to rejoin to the starting lineup when they return. Romero’s return this season is uncertain.
Nate the Great
Braves CF Nate McLouth was back in the starting lineup for the series opener Friday.
McLouth has missed four starts and three entire games with a sore left hamstring. He was acquired from Pittsburgh on June 3. His bat is critical to Atlana’s hopes of catching Philadelphia in the NL East.
An All-Star last season, McLouth is on pace for a 20-homer/20-stolen base campaign.
Choose your weapon
Despite rumors of him headed to the bullpen with the recent acquisition of Martinez, Happ remains in Philadelphia’s starting rotation.
The rookie has pitched like a veteran and continues to impress. He threw 100 pitches in six inning of work in a 4-3 win at Chicago Tuesday night.
Happ has cashed in four of his last six team starts, sporting a 2.19 ERA along the way. He has developed an interesting pitching pattern this season.
In his nine road starts, the Phillies are 5-4, going W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W, the most recent W being the victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Vazquez picked up his seventh straight team start win in his most recent effort, an 8-2 win at Los Angeles last Sunday.
He owns a sharp 3.17 ERA in his last seven contests, issuing nine walks against 46 strikeouts in those games.
With the victory over the Dodgers, Vazquez reached double digits in wins for the 10th consecutive season. He also has at least 150 strikeouts for the 10th year in a row.
He has thrown 98 or more pitches in all but two of his 23 starts this season. His 171 strikeouts are the second-most in the NL behind Tim Lincecum's 198 for the Giants. In 155.3 innings of work this season, Vazquez has issued only 35 walks.
While it’s tough to fade a Philadelphia squad that owns the best road mark in the Big Leagues and is 13-3 away on Sundays, look for form to prevail over function Sunday.
Sunday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Aaron Laffey (Cleveland Indians)
The left-hander is emerging as the staff ace since the departure of Cliff Lee.
Laffey has not allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts, going 3-1 in that span without surrendering a homer.
Despite being roughed up by the Los Angeles Angels July 29, Laffey has a 2.10 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his last four outings. He is 2-0 this year vs. Minnesota, his opponent today.
J.A. Happ (Philadelphia Phillies)
The Phillies have the best road record in baseball and Happ is a key to their success.
In his last five road starts, the left-hander has pitched at least six innings without allowing more than two earned runs and deserves better than his 2-1 mark in that span.
Happ has a 1.54 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his last five road starts, twice holding his oppoonent scoreless while allowing just two homers in 35 innings.
Justin Lehr (Cincinnati Reds)
The journeyman right-hander doesn't have a huge body of work, having made just three starts. But he's been very good in the last two.
Lehr tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs, then followed up by somehow dancing around 11 hits and a walk in six innings, allowing just one run in a win over Albert Pujols and the Cardinals. He has walked just two in his last 15 innings.
With Edinson Volquez out for the season and Johnny Cueto slumping, the Reds should be taking a long look at Lehr for the rest of the season.
Slumping
Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)
The right-hander won his first start after the All-Star break and has not won since.
Guthrie has lost four in a row, giving up hits, homers and walks in bunches. During his recent stumble, he had allowed 34 hits, five homers and eight walks in 25 1-3 innings.
Guthrie has given up season highs in hits twice in his last three starts.
Nick Blackburn (Minnesota Twins)
There apparently will be no second-half surge by the Twins this season, who have tumbled out of contention partially due to Blackburn's poor pitching.
The right-hander won his last two starts before the All-Star break, but the Twins are 0-5 in his second-half starts. Blackburn is 0-3 and has worked almost exclusively as a favorite, costing bettors.
In this awful stretch, Blackburn has an ERA of 8.87 and a WHIP of 1.93. He has allowed 12 hits in one start, 13 in another and lasted a season-low 1 2-3 innings in another.
Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)
The bottom line is the Cubs have lost the right-hander's last three starts. But that doesn't tell the whole story.
Harden is just 0-1 in that stretch while receiving a measly five runs of support. His ERA is 3.00, his WHIP is 1.11 and he has 26 strikeouts in 18 innings.
The Cubs have not lost four straight games started by Harden all season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (65-49) at Atlanta (61-55)
The Phillies send left-hander J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75 ERA) to the mound for the rubber match of a series against the Braves, who will counter with Javier Vazquez (10-7, 2.90) at Turner Field.
After scoring a 3-2 win on Friday, Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge blew his eighth save of the season on Saturday, allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth as the Braves rallied for a 4-3 win. Even with the loss, the Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 trips to Atlanta, but the Braves have won six of the last seven overall meetings between these two and eight of 11 this season.
Philadelphia remains on runs of 8-3 against the N.L. East, 21-9 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on the road, 35-18 on the road against teams with a winning record and 70-33 on Sundays. Atlanta is on positive streaks of 6-1 overall, 14-5 at home, 5-1 against southpaws and 11-5 as a home chalk.
Happ is 4-1 on the road this season with a 1.84 ERA, and in his last three games he’s posted a 1.71 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings on Tuesday at Chicago, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 10-inning victory. Only once in his last 10 starts has Happ allowed more than three runs, including back on July 2 when he held these Braves to two runs on seven hits in seven innings, but his offense let him down in the 5-2 loss
In three career starts against Atlanta, Happ has allowed four runs in 19 2/3 innings (1.83 ERA). Finally, Philadelphia is 5-2 in Happ’s last seven starts against N.L. East competition and 4-1 in his last five against teams with winning records.
Vazquez is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last three outings, but this is his first home start since July 19. Atlanta is unbeaten in Vazquez’s last seven outings, including an 8-2 win in Los Angeles a week ago today. The veteran right-hander has already faced these Phillies three times this season, winning two and allowing a combined seven runs in 19 innings (3.32 ERA). The Braves are on runs of 6-0 when Vazquez starts as a favorite, 4-0 when he faces the N.L. East rivals and 5-0 when he battles teams with winning records.
With Happ on the mound, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-2 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road and 15-3-1 overall, while as a team, Philadelphia has stayed below the total in 10 of 13 road games, 9 of 12 against the N.L. East and nine of 10 on the road against right-handed starters. With Vazquez on the bump, the Braves are on “under” streaks of 5-0-1 at home and 8-3-1 against teams with winning records.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in this divisional rivalry, all played at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (66-50) at Texas (65-50)
The top two teams battling it out for the A.L. wild-card wrap up a three-game set at Rangers Ballpark as the Red Sox send right-hander Junichi Tazawa (1-1, 4.05 ERA) to the mound opposite Rangers righty Dustin Nippers (3-1, 3.62).
Texas scored a 7-2 victory Saturday night after allowing Boston to steal Friday’s game 8-4 with a six-run ninth inning. The Rangers have won six of eight against the Red Sox this season, including four of five in Texas.
Terry Francona’s squad continues to struggle, currently on slides of 1-7 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 4-8 overall and 2-11 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rangers are on runs of 10-3 at home, 12-4 against winning teams, 10-2 as a favorite, 8-0 as a home chalk, 4-0 on Sundays and 8-1 against A.L. East competition.
Tazawa made the first start of his career on Tuesday at home against the Tigers and gave up three runs (one earned) in five innings, striking out six and walking two, and the Red Sox rewarded him with the 7-5 victory.
Nippert is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA at home this season and made his last home outing against these Red Sox on July 22 when he gave up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 Texas victory. In his five starts this season, Nipper has allowed three runs or less four times, but the Rangers are just 2-3 in those five outings.
Boston has gone over the posted total in five of six against A.L. West teams and four of six against teams with winning records, but the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 12-5 on the road, 19-8-1 on the highway against right-handed starters, 17-5-1 as a ‘dog and 12-3 as a road ‘dog. Texas is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 4-0 when Nippert starts, 37-17-5 on Sundays, 38-14-2 at home, 44-16-2 overall, 26-7-2 as a favorite, 12-2 against the A.L. East and 23-4-1 as a home favorite. Finally, in this series, the “under” is on runs of 8-1 overall, including 5-1 in Arlington.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Good morning Blade,
Just a quick question to see where BioTrends articles have gone? I got use to the postings of cappers records. If on vacation, I understand. Keep up the good work. Thanks in advance for any info you can provide.
I can be reached via email at [email protected] to keep from cluttering up your thread.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Sunday, Aug. 16
Houston at Milwaukee (2:05 p.m. EDT). The Astros' Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.87 ERA) and Brewers' Braden Looper (10-6, 4.99 ERA) face off as the teams try to gain ground in the NL Central.
STARS
Saturday
-Julio Borbon, Rangers, had four hits and four of Texas' club-record eight stolen bases in a 7-2 win over the Boston Red Sox.
-Nick Swisher, Yankees, hit a two-run homer and New York beat the Seattle Mariners 5-2 for their 12th win in 13 games.
-Bengie Molina, Giants, homered in the 10th inning to give San Francisco a 5-4 victory at the New York Mets.
-Brian McCann, Braves, hit a two-run homer in Atlanta's 4-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.
-John Lackey, Angels, allowed one run in seven innings and Los Angeles beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-1 at Camden Yards.
-Mark Reynolds and Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks, hit back-to-back homers off Jonathan Broxton in the ninth and Arizona rallied to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in 10 innings.
-Carl Crawford, Rays, hit a two-run double during Tampa Bay's four-run third and the Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 8-3 to end a five-game skid.
-Carlos Guillen, Tigers, homered and drove in four runs in Detroit's 10-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals.
-Matt Holliday, Cardinals, hit a two-run homer to power St. Louis to a 7-4 victory over the San Diego Padres.
-Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs, struck out eight in five effective innings, helping Chicago to a 3-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
-Adrian Gonzalez, Padres, had three hits, including his 31st home run, in San Diego's 7-4 loss at St. Louis.
-Mike Burns, Brewers, pitched seven solid innings and Milwaukee beat the Houston Astros 6-2 for its third straight victory.
-Alberto Gonzalez and Elijah Dukes, Nationals, each had two hits and three RBIs in Washington's 10-6 win at the Cincinnati Reds.
-Gavin Floyd, White Sox, pitched seven strong innings to help Chicago to an 8-1 win at the Oakland Athletics.
OUCH
Mets slugger David Wright, Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda and Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler all got hit in the head with the ball. Wright and Kuroda each sustained a concussion and were expected to spend Saturday night in the hospital. Wright was hit squarely in the helmet by a 94 mph fastball from Giants starter Matt Cain. Kuroda was hit by Arizona pinch-hitter Rusty Ryal's line drive. Kinsler stayed in after he was hit in the helmet by Boston's Fernando Cabrera in the eighth.
THAT'S STEALING
The Texas Rangers set a club record with eight steals in a 7-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox. The eight stolen bases matched the most in the majors this season. Boston also allowed eight against Tampa Bay on May 3. Julio Borbon swiped four bags, Elvis Andrus finished with three and Ian Kinsler had the other one. The Rangers also stole six bases against the Red Sox on July 22.
SWEET
Adam Dunn hit his first homer against his former team, leading the Washington Nationals to a 10-6 win over the Cincinnati Reds. Dunn, known for his tape-measure shots to right field, started the second with a drive that barely reached the first row of seats in left. Dunn made his major league debut with Cincinnati in 2001 and was one of the club's regular outfielders until he was traded to Arizona last August. He signed with Washington in the offseason.
IN THE FOLD
The Florida Marlins reached an agreement with left-hander Chad James, the 18th overall pick in the June draft, that includes a $1.7 million signing bonus. Rob Martin, James' agent, said his client passed a physical and will sign the deal Monday in Oklahoma City.
WORTH NOTING
Brad Lidge committed two errors on one play and picked up his eighth blown save in Philadelphia's 4-3 loss at Atlanta. ... St. Louis has won seven of eight and is a season-high 14 games over .500. ... The New York Yankees have won five straight and 12 of 13. ... Minnesota is 4-10 in its last 14 games. Half of those losses have come to the Indians and Royals, teams already looking ahead to next season.
SPEAKING
"I'm just happy that the losing streak is over. I'm glad we were able to get the win because we needed it. Everybody came and did their job. Usually when we're all clicking like this we're a pretty tough team to beat.'' - Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford after the Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays to end a five-game skid.
Good morning Blade,
Just a quick question to see where BioTrends articles have gone? I got use to the postings of cappers records. If on vacation, I understand. Keep up the good work. Thanks in advance for any info you can provide.
He was creating to much drama over trivial stuff so he was banned unfortunately.
Good morning Blade,
Just a quick question to see where BioTrends articles have gone? I got use to the postings of cappers records. If on vacation, I understand. Keep up the good work. Thanks in advance for any info you can provide.
He was creating to much drama over trivial stuff so he was banned unfortunately.
Sorry to hear that. He provided good tracking information. Thanks.
Sunday Night Showdown
By Kevin Rogers
The Braves and Phillies play the rubber game of their three-game set at Turner Field tonight. Atlanta rallied for a 4-3 victory on Saturday, thanks to a pair of runs scored on Phillies closer Brad Lidge in the ninth inning. With Saturday's win, the Braves are 8-3 against Philadelphia this season, as Atlanta sits five games out of first place inside the NL East.
J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75 ERA) is coming off consecutive victories over the Rockies and Cubs his last two starts. The Phillies southpaw has compiled quality starts in 11 of 15 outings, including nine of the last ten. Happ has been a workhorse all season, tossing six innings or more in ten straight trips to the mound. Happ's numbers on the road are impressive, going 4-1 away from Citizens Bank Park, with an ERA of 1.84. The lefty lost a 5-2 decision at Atlanta on July 2, allowing seven hits and two earned runs in seven innings.
The 'under' has hit in 11 of Happ's 14 starts, including six of seven on the road.
The Phillies own the best road mark in baseball at 36-20, despite Saturday's setback. Philadelphia has split its last ten away games, scoring three runs or less six times during this span. In the Phillies' last 13 road contests, the 'under' has been nailed ten times.
Javier Vazquez (10-7, 2.90 ERA) has been one of the hotter pitchers in baseball since the start of July. Atlanta has won seven straight starts made by the veteran righty, while going seven innings or more in six consecutive outings. The Braves are 2-1 in Vazquez's three starts against the Phillies this season, which includes Atlanta blowing a 10-3 lead in Philadelphia in early April (Braves lost 12-11).
Vazquez's home mark is not sterling record-wise (3-5), but his ERA at Turner Field is a sharp 2.82. Vazquez ranks second in the NL and fifth in all of baseball in strikeouts (171), while compiling 17 K's against the Phillies in three starts in '09.
The Phillies are 21-8 their last 29 games against right-handed starters, but just 3-7 their last ten as underdogs of up to $1.50. The Braves have hit left-handed pitching well all season, winning five of their past six against southpaw starters.
Sportsbook.com has installed the Braves as a $1.35 home favorite, with the total set at 8.
vegasinsider.com
Runs at a Premium
By SportsPic
The division-leading Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves close a three game set at Turner field in what has the markings of a low scoring affair. Phils sending J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75) to the mound while Braves counter with Javier Vazquez (10-7, 2.90) suggests runs will be hard to manufacture. Happ has allowed two or less runs in ten of his fifteen starts with the lefty bringing to the matchup a 1.05 WHIP, 17.04 BOR when on the highway. Vazquez in solid form allowing two or less runs in seven of his last nine on the bump in guiding Braves to an 8-1 mark over the span enters with a 1.07 WHIP, 20.37 BOR hurling at home. Keep in mind starters with a high Batter-Out-Rating naturally leads to less men on base thus making it harder for the opposition to score runs. League wise a pair of starters producing high BOR's (>15) have seen the 'Under' dominate at an 85.4% clip (240-33-8). Have sportsbooks set the total <8.5 and these same starters command a sparkling 83-9-3 'Under' (87.4%). Consider an 'Under' in Sunday night's matchup. Trends of interest: The 'Under' is 15-3-1 in Happ's L19 starts, 8-3-1 in Vazquez's L12 facing a winning team.