Sunday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Sunday baseball card wraps up with the Rays and Red Sox at Tropicana Field as Boston tries to claw back inside the AL Wild Card race. Two of the late first pitches on Sunday have contrasting meanings as the Mariners look to trip up the AL Central-leading Twins. We'll start in Southern California as the reigning NL Champs wrap up their series with the club that owns the best record in the Senior Circuit.
Phillies at Padres - 4:05 PM EST
Philadelphia has dominated at Petco Park over the years, as the Phillies close things out with the Padres. Charlie Manuel's team is 6-1 the last three seasons at San Diego, including Friday's extra-innings victory. The Padres can breathe a bit inside the NL West, owning a six-game advantage over the Giants entering Saturday's action.
San Diego native Cole Hamels (7-10, 3.47 ERA) returns home, looking for his first victory since August 1. The Phillies' southpaw is winless in his last four starts, receiving just four runs of support while delivering three quality outings. With the ineptitude of the Philadelphia offense recently, the Phillies have compiled four straight 'unders' in Hamels' previous four trips to the mound. The Phillies are 1-2 in Hamels' three career starts at Petco Park, as the lefty is making his first start in Southern California since 2008.
The Padres continue to lead the league in pitching, as Clayton Richard (12-5, 3.55 ERA) is coming off three consecutive wins. Richard has allowed just three earned runs during this 3-0 run, including road wins at Chicago and San Francisco. San Diego has cashed three straight 'unders' when Richard takes the mound, following a string of eight consecutive 'overs' from the end of June through mid-August. The former Michigan Wolverine owns a 6-3 record at Petco Park, while not losing at home since June 19 to the Orioles.
Philadelphia has compiled a 10-10 mark in road day contests, with the Phillies going 5-0 in Hamels' starts in this situation. The Padres have dominated in this spot, owning an 8-3 record in day games at Petco, despite falling to Philadelphia on Saturday afternoon.
Twins at Mariners - 4:10 PM EST
Two teams going in completely different directions conclude a three-game series at Safeco Field as Minnesota tries to finish off Seattle. The Twins maintain a 3 ½-game lead atop the AL Central over the White Sox, while the M's are trying to end this miserable season on a winning note.
Carl Pavano (15-9, 3.56 ERA) has been shaky of late, as the Minnesota right-hander gave up 33 hits and 13 earned runs in his previous three starts. Pavano is 5-0 in his last five starts as a road favorite, with the last three wins coming against teams in Seattle's class (Baltimore, Cleveland, and Kansas City). The veteran fell in his most recent outing at Safeco Field, losing to the M's, 4-1 on June 3. Pavano allowed eight hits and four earned runs in seven innings, as Felix Hernandex shut down the Twins offense in Seattle's last win against Minnesota.
The Mariners will try to avoid the sweep with left-hander Lucas French (2-4, 4.57 ERA), who has alternated wins and losses in each of his last five outings. French is coming off a 10-0 drubbing to the Yankees, allowing five earned runs in five innings as nearly a $3.00 road underdog. The Seattle southpaw has split a pair of home starts, beating the Royals while falling to the A's. In French's lone outing against the Twins this season, Minnesota tagged the 24-year old for seven hits and four runs in a 4-0 shutout of Seattle on August 1.
The Twins have owned the Mariners recently, avenging a series loss at Safeco in early June by winning five straight in this series. Minnesota is just 5-9 in the third game of a series after taking the first two contests, while going just 1-3 on the road in this situation.
Red Sox at Rays - 8:05 PM EST
With a little over a month remaining in the regular season, the Sox need to go on a run to catch either the Yankees or Rays, with the two teams owning playoff spots if the postseason started today. Boston helped its cause by taking the series opener, winning a pitcher's duel on Friday, 3-1. A pair of veteran right-handers hit the mound in the finale at Tropicana Field, as each hurler is searching for his 13th win on the season.
The Sox send out John Lackey (12-7, 4.51 ERA), who searches for his third straight victory. Lackey is coming off home wins over the Mariners and Angels as a substantial favorite each time. Boston is just 4-8 in Lackey's 12 road starts, as the ex-Angels' hurler beat his former team in Anaheim on July 27 for his last away victory. Following a disastrous start against Tampa Bay in April (3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER), Lackey settled down in his last two outings versus the Rays. The Texas native yielded three earned runs combined in a pair of wins over Tampa Bay his previous two turns against Joe Maddon's club.
James Shields (12-11, 4.76 ERA) has struggled to find consistency this season, especially at home. Two seasons removed from dominating at the Trop, Shields is only 4-6 at home, while allowing 13 homers in 13 starts. The Tampa Bay right-hander won in his last start in his native Southern California with a 4-3 triumph over the Angels, cashing as a $1.30 favorite. The Rays are victorious in three of Shields' last four home starts, with the lone loss coming against the Orioles as nearly $2.00 'chalk.' Tampa Bay is 3-7 in Shields' previous 10 starts versus Boston, including a 1-3 ledger at home.
The Red Sox have struggled the most in Game 3's of a series, going 16-22 this season. The Rays are a strong 'under' play at home in Sunday action, owning a 7-3 mark to the 'under' on the first day of the week.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Gio Gonzalez (11-8, 3.24 ERA), Oakland Athletics
The A’s were a dominant force in the majors at the start of the last decade thanks to All-Star hurlers Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.
Oakland’s rise from cellar-dweller to second place in the AL West is tied again to starting pitching. Gonzalez, along with Trevor Cahill and Vin Mazzaro, give the Athletics one of the best, young pitching staffs in the big leagues.
And while Cahill’s sub-3.00 earned-run average suggests he’s the team’s ace, Oakland fans know Gonzalez’s stuff is by far the most overwhelming.
He’ll walk more batters than you’d like to see, but he doesn’t like to give opponents anything good to hit. Hitters are batting just .242 off Gonzalez and the young southpaw has surrendered just 10 big flies in 161 innings.
The A’s have won three of his last four starts and the under is 4-1-1 in his last six appearances.
Matt Cain (10-10, 3.07 ERA), San Francisco Giants
It’s easy to forget about this hard-throwing righty with two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum stealing the spotlight, but the Giants know what a special talent they have in Cain.
There were rumors hitting-hungry San Fran turned down a Cain for Prince Fielder trade with Milwaukee before the July deadline.
Cain has repaid his club’s faith by going on a tear. He’s delivered quality starts in seven of his last eight trips to the hill and the Giants are 6-2 over the hot spell.
Slumping
Fausto Carmona (11-12, 4.20 ERA), Cleveland Indians
It’s hard to believe this hurler was once on par with CC Sabathia. Since that unsuccessful playoff series against the Yankees in 2007, Carmona’s career has gone in a tailspin.
He finished ’08 and ’09 with ERAs north of 5.00 but he showed promise for the first third of the 2010 campaign. That spark appears to have blown out with each start Carmona makes.
He’s given up five or more runs in four of his last six outings and the Indians are 1-5 over that period.
Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Rays
By MARC LAWRENCE
AL East Division rivals Boston and Tampa Bay conclude a pivotal three-game series Sunday night on ESPN. Let’s see how these two teams match up.
BY COMPARISON
Despite being ravaged all season with 24 disabled list-stints and 832 man games lost to injury, the Red Sox entered the series with the Rays in pretty decent shape.
Compared to their recent predecessors, the Sox are right where they should be on this date. At 73-55, their record is nearly identical to the 2004, 2005 and 2009 clubs. They are better than the ill-fated 2006 squad, and not as good as the 2007 and 2008 teams, both of who had at least 76 wins at this point of the season.
It’s GM Theo Epstein’s contention that it takes 95 wins to make the playoffs in the American League East. Entering this series Boston is on pace for 93.
Not bad for a team that has four more games remaining with Tampa and six more against the Yankees.
“We definitely need to play well. This is one of the times we can really control stuff on our behalf, and not hope that other teams help us out. So we need to definitely go in there and play well,” Epstein said.
Regardless of where they finish, bench boss Terry Francona should be in the running for the Manager of the Year award.
They're already a different team from the Red Sox we've come to know, and you can see it in Francona's disposition. He likes this team a lot, and he's not afraid to say it.
"I love them," he said. "Not because of what has happened (with the injuries), but they're trying to win every day. That's what you ask guys to do, to try to win."
OUR DOCTORS ARE KILLING US
With team MVP Dustin Pedroia and his fractured left foot back in a protective boot, it appears he is done for the season.
Coupled with the fiasco of Jacoby Ellsbury's premature return after he fractured four ribs and had a fifth fracture go undetected, the burden of accountability has fallen squarely on the Red Sox medical staff.
It’s fair to ask why both Ellsbury and Pedroia appear to have placed themselves at risk of further injury when neither should have been playing. And also why OF Mike Cameron will soon be going under the knife after club officials maintained all season they didn't believe an operation would be necessary.
All of which brings up to a lot of finger pointing. Raising questions about the care of its players brings to mind a similar time and situation when former Red Sox SS Nomar Garciaparra’s declared, “Our doctors are killing us.”
RED ROOF
Tropicana Field protects fans from soaring temperatures as well as the rain and violent storms that can arise in the blink of an eye during the sultry, summer months in St. Petersburg.
Protection aside, the rafters and catwalks that support the roof over their heads cost the Rays a valuable win earlier this month, one that may come back to haunt them at season’s end.
When Minnesota’s Jason Kubel popped a fly ball that struck the A-Ring designated catwalk, a two-out, not-so-routine pop fly allowed the winning run to score, it was a result that could be potentially devastating to a club that is competing in the AL East race.
“I know it works both ways, but to lose a game in a pennant situation like that, because of a roof, truly indicates why there's a crying need for a new ballpark in this area, regardless of where they put it," cried Rays manager Joe Maddon.
"It just needs to be a real baseball field where, if you lose the pennant by one game and look back at a game like that, because the roof got in the way, we'd be very upset."
Maddon makes a strong argument. No one wants the fate of a season to be affected by a roof.
BEEN THERE, DONE THAT
Unlike editions in the past, the Rays head into crunch-time with the valuable benefit of experience.
Entering its final 35 games of the season, including 13 against its closest competitors (the Red Sox and Yankees), Tampa feels comfortable knowing it won the 2008 American League championship.
“I don't know that it makes it any less stressful or easier, but that unknown component is no longer there," said Maddon. "You know what it feels like and you know what it looks like.
"And the thing I'd like to believe is that you understand you don't have to get any smarter or any better, just come out ready to play every day. That's why we always talk of playing the same game regardless of the date… you don't want anything to change."
ARMS RACE
Free agent acquisition John Lackey (12-7, 4.51) toes the rubber against James Shields (11-11, 4.78) in a battle of right-handers this evening.
Lackey has dropped eight of his 12 road team starts, with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP (walks + hits per inning), this campaign.
Lackey has thrived against the Rays, posting a 12-3 mark with a 3.54 ERA in his career team starts against Tampa Bay.
On the flip side, Shields has struggled against the BoSox, sporting a 4-13 career team start record with a 5.01 ERA.
Shields is 6-7 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his 13 team starts at Tropicana Park this season. Tampa is 14-6 in Shields’ last 20 starts during the month of August.
Tips and Trends
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
RED SOX: If Boston finds a way to make it into the postseason this year, it will be one of the greatest stories in the past 25 years in baseball. This Red Sox team has been ravaged by injuries, yet they continue to keep pace with both the Yankees and the Rays. Boston is 74-55 SU this year, placing them just 4.5 games behind the duo at the top of the American League East standings. Boston is +3.51 and -0.43 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Pitcher John Lackey will make the high profile road start tonight, as he is 12-7 with an ERA of 4.51 and a WHIP of 1.49 this season. The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 7-2 in their last 9 road games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games during game 3 of a series. Boston is 2-5 in Lackey's last 7 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 0-4 in Lackey's last 4 starts against the America
League East.
Red Sox are 6-2 last 8 games against the American League East.
Under is 6-0-1 last 7 games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - CF Mike Cameron (abdominal) is out.
Projected Score: 3
RAYS: (-150, O/U 9) Tampa Bay is in the middle of an epic fight, both in the American League East division and for the best record in all of baseball. Tampa is competing with both the Yankees and the Red Sox for the above mentioned titles, as all 3 teams have the best records in the American league. The Rays are 78-50 SU this year, including 39-25 SU at home. Tampa is +6.91 and -1.78 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Right-hander James Shields will make the home start tonight, as he is 12-11 with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.40 this season. The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 Sunday games. Tampa is 20-7 in their last 27 games on fieldturf. The Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rays are 102-49 in their last 151 home games against a right-handed starter. Tampa is 2-5 in their last 7 games against the American League East. The Rays are 25-11 in Shields' last 36 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rays are 2-5 in Shields' last 7 starts against the American League East. Tampa is 1-6 in Shields' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rays are 8-2 last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Under is 5-0 last 5 Sunday games.
Key Injuries - RF Gabe Kapler (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 4 (UNDER-Total of the Day)