Sunday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Sunday card in Major League Baseball involves plenty of important matchups, especially in the American League. All three division leaders in the AL have an arms-length lead in their respective divisions, but could use a little more breathing room. Three key games inside the Junior Circuit give bettors good opportunities to wager and win.
Rays at Tigers (1:05 PM EST)
Tampa Bay and Detroit play the rubber match of their three-game set at Comerica Park, with the Rays trying to scratch and claw their way into the postseason. The Tigers continue to lead the AL Central race, looking for a return to the playoffs for the first time since winning the pennant in 2006.
Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.38 ERA) has been exceptional in two roles this season - at home, and during the day. Those two factors should bode well for Detroit backers, as Verlander is 7-2 at Comerica, and 6-2 when the sun is out. These two situations have also benefited 'under' players, as Verlander has nailed the 'under' in eight of 12 home contests, and seven of ten day games.
Jeff Niemann (12-5, 3.87 ERA) has received some of the best run support of any pitcher in baseball, as the Rays are plating an average of 6.46 runs in his 23 starts. Niemann is coming off a win over the Blue Jays his last time out, despite allowing six runs and eight hits in 6.1 innings of work. Niemann does own an impressive 7-3 mark away from Tropicana Field, but his ERA is 4.62 on the road.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has opened the Tigers as a $1.50 home favorite, with the total set at 8 ½ (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Blue Jays at Red Sox (1:35 PM EST)
This was expected to be a pitcher's duel with Roy Halladay and Jon Lester taking the hill at Fenway Park. Halladay is still set to start, but Lester was scratched, as his start is getting pushed back to Tuesday at Tampa Bay. Nothing is wrong with Lester, but Tim Wakefield was set to take the hill Tuesday, and the knuckleballer's back is putting him on the shelf. With the changes, veteran right-hander Paul Byrd will get the start in the series finale.
Halladay (13-7, 3.03 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing seven earned runs in six innings in a 12-7 loss to Tampa Bay. Halladay has not been particularly sharp since coming off the disabled list in late June. The Jays ace is 3-6 in 11 starts since June 29, including a 1-1 mark against Boston. Halladay pitched a gem against the Sox at Rogers Centre right after the All-Star Break, a complete-game six-hitter in a 3-1 victory. The former Cy Young Award winner was touched up by the Sox eleven days ago at home, allowing five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 6-1 loss.
Byrd will be making his first start since last September, but Boston did go 6-2 in eight starts as a member of the Sox over the final two months of 2008. Byrd compiled two less-than-stellar home starts against the Jays last season, giving up 20 hits and nine earned runs in 12.1 innings of work, losing twice.
Rangers at Twins (2:05 PM EST)
Texas will not go away in the AL Wild Card race, as the Rangers shut out the Twins Saturday night, 3-0. Minnesota remains 4 ½ games behind Detroit in the AL Central, as Ron Gardenhire's club has won eight of their past 11. The Twins are finding ways to win close contests in this stretch, claiming six victories by a run.
Kevin Millwood (10-8, 3.63 ERA) takes the Metrodome hill, going for just his fourth road win on the season. The Rangers veteran righty has dropped six of his last seven starts against the Twins dating back to 2005. Millwood was knocked around by Minnesota in Arlington less than two weeks ago. He allowed seven hits and five earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Twins.
Scott Baker (12-7, 4.47 ERA) has won four straight home starts, while the Twins are 7-2 his last nine outings overall. Baker's control has always been outstanding, as the Minnesota righty has walked just four batters his last six starts. The 'over' has turned into a solid play in Baker's home outings, hitting in nine of 13 starts at the Metrodome.
The Twins are listed as a $1.40 home favorite according to LVSC, with the totals set at 8 ½ (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
vegasinsider.com
Sunday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
Maybe it’s that Rock Star attitude or all the “legal” substances coursing through his veins. Whatever it is, Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is red hot.
Since the All-Star break, the right-hander is one of the best arms in the National League. He’s posting a 2.54 ERA with a WHIP of 1.15 during that span. But, due to poor run protection and bad bullpen, Arroyo has only two wins since the break.
In his most recent start, Arroyo went seven innings and allowed just one earned run on six hits for a no-decision.
Ross Ohlendorf, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ohlendorf apparently missed the memo on the Pirates packing it in for 2009. The righty is pitching like a postseason ace in his recent starts. He’s allowed more than two runs in just three of his past 10 starts and owns a 2.74 ERA since the All-Star break.
"He's fun to watch - the way he has developed, the way he has taken to everything," manager John Russell told reporters. "He has really grown as a pitcher, and it's been enjoyable to watch him grow. He just keeps taking it every outing and continuing to make great strides forward."
In his last three appearances, the Bucs are 3-0 with Ohlendorf pitching more than 19 innings in those wins. He went just over six innings against the heavy-hitting Philadelphia Phillies in his last starts, giving up just two earned runs (both home runs) for a no-decision.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
If the Cardinals are going to make noise this postseason, Adam Wainwright will be playing the crash symbols. The righty is 7-2 in his last 10 starts and owns a 1.27 ERA since the break.
In his last three starts, Wainwright has bookended a two-run, no-decision with shutout efforts. His most recent appearance was a eight-inning clean sheet against the Houston Astros in which he allowed only three hits and struck out five batters.
Slumping
Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers
Ah, what a difference a year makes. Around this time last season, C.C. Sabathia was pushing the Brew Crew into the Wild Card spot. Fast forward to 2009 and Jeff Suppan is toeing the rubber in Milwaukee – going winless since the middle of June.
Suppan has watched his ERA balloon to 9.00 in his four starts since the All-Star break. He spent a month on the injured list, making his return this past Tuesday. He went just over four innings and watched his pitch count pile up with five walks to his one strikeout. Suppan gave up nine hits which turned into four runs for a no-decision.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (68-61) at Philadelphia (74-53)
The top two teams in the National League East wrap up a three-game set at Citizens Park when the Braves send right-hander Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.91 ERA) to the mound opposite Phillies’ righty Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.88).
After dropping Friday’s contest 4-2, Atlanta’s bats came alive Saturday and scored a 9-1 win in a rain-shortened, eight-inning contest. The Braves have beaten Philadelphia seven of the last 10 meetings, but still trail the Phillies by seven games. Atlanta has won six of their last eight on the highway and five straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite Saturday’s setback, Philadelphia is still on runs of 35-17 overall, 20-8 at homn, 72-33 on Sundays, 29-13 as a favorite and 19-8 as a home favorite.
Jurrjens is 1-0 in his last three games with a 2.18 ERA, but the Braves are just 1-2 in those three starts. On Tuesday, he allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings to the Padres but Atlanta lost 2-1. In three starts against the Phillies this season, Jurrjens has allowed three runs (two earned) in 19 2/3 innings as Atlanta is 2-1 in the three outings. Finally, the Braves are 7-3 in Jurrjens’ last 10 starts against N.L. East foes and 4-1 in his last five when he gets four full days off.
Blanton gave up three runs in six innings in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, losing 6-4, but the veteran hruler hasn’t allowed the opposition more than three runs in any of his last 11 starts. He’s faced the Braves four times this season, including Aug. 14 when he held them to two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia is 12-5 in Blanton’s last 17 starts against division rivals, 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite and 7-0 in his last seven when he works on Sundays.
Atlanta has stayed under the total in seven of Jurrjens’ last 10 starts as a ‘dog and six of his last eight when he faces a winning team on the road. As a team, the Braves have topped the total in 18 of 25 Sunday games and eight of 11 roadies. With Blanton on the hill, the Phils are on “under” runs of 10-4-2 overall, 7-3 at home and 4-0-1 against the N.L. East. Additionally, Philadelphia has stayed low in 20 of 30 against the N.L. East, 12 of 17 in the third game of a series and 19 of 27 against right-handers.
Finally, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philly and 5-0 in the last six clashes overall, with last night’s rain-shortened contest ending up as a “no play” for the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Colorado (72-58) at San Francisco (71-59)
The Giants will try to make it a three-game sweep and draw even in the race for the N.L. wild-card race when they send All-Star Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39 ERA) to the mound at AT&T Park against the Rockies’ Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.50).
San Francisco held on for a 5-3 win Saturday night, giving up three runs in the ninth before getting the final out. The Giants trail the Rockies by one game in the wild-card standings and trail the Dodgers by 5½ in the N.L. West standings.
Colorado is just 1-8 in its last nine as an underdog and 5-12 after losing the first two games of a series, but it is 7-1 in its last eight on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco is on runs of 40-19 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 42-20 at home against right-handers. Also, these teams have split 14 meetings this season.
Hammel has been solid in his last two outings, allowing a combined three runs in 14 innings in victories over the Nationals on Aug. 20 and Dodgers on Tuesday. He’s seen the Giants twice this season but didn’t get any offensive support in either outing. He blanked San Francisco for six innings on May 3 but the Rockies lost 1-0, then he gave up three runs in six innings on July 24 in a 3-1 Colorado loss. With Hammel on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 13-6 overall and 4-0 on Sundays, but just 1-4 when he’s a road ‘dog.
Cain, who has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts despite not registering a decision, is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in front of the home fans this season. Against Arizona on Tuesday he gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits in seven innings of a 5-4 victory. Cain has been dominant in two victories over Colorado this season, allowing a combined one run in 13 innings. With Cain on the hill, San Francisco is on runs of 16-5 at home, 9-1 as a home chalk, 11-3 when he’s a favorite and 5-0 against the N.L. West.
When Hammel pitches, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-1-1 in the third game of a series and 4-0 against N.L. West teams, while as a team, Colorado has stayed under the total in four of five overall, four of five on the road, six of seven against right-handed starters and four of five against N.L. West teams. The Giants’ are on “under” streaks of 7-2 with Cain starting, 6-1 when he’s a favorite and 6-1 against winning teams, while as a team San Francisco has stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as a favorite and five of six on Sundays.
Finally, the under is on streaks of 4-0 when Cain starts at home against Colorado and 5-1 when these two meet in Northern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Sunday Night Showdown
By Kevin Rogers
The Braves and Phillies play the rubber match of their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park tonight in front of a nationally-televised audience. The Braves became the first team to hand Cliff Lee a loss since his arrival in Philadelphia at the end of July. Atlanta touched up the Phillies southpaw for ten hits and six earned runs in five innings of a 9-1 rout. The Braves also used the long-ball to their advantage, knocking out three homers off Lee, including a three-shot off the bat of outfielder Garrett Anderson.
Tonight, Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.91 ERA) looks to beat the Phillies for the third time this season. The Braves' right-hander has turned in quality starts in each of his last three trips to the mound, allowing five earned runs in his last 20.2 innings of work. Jurrjens picked up a no-decision in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia at Turner Field back on August 14. Jurrjens gave up five hits and two earned runs in seven innings, but Ryan Howard's ninth-inning home run off Rafael Soriano gave Philadelphia the victory.
There has not been much of a discernable difference between Jurrjens' home and road numbers this season. Jurrjens is 5-5 at Turner Field with an ERA of 2.67, while going 5-3 on the road, owning an away ERA of 3.18. However, 14 of Jurrjens' 21 night starts have finished 'under' the total, while five of his seven career starts against Philadelphia ended 'under' the total.
Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.88 ERA) has strung together nine consecutive quality outings, while starting opposite of Jurrjens in that mid-August win by the Phillies. Blanton is just 1-2 this month in five starts, but is coming off a no-decision at Pittsburgh in which he left the game trailing, but the Phillies rallied in the ninth inning to take the lead. Only problem is, closer Brad Lidge allowed a walk-off homer to Pirates' center fielder Andrew McCutchen, nullifying a chance at a Phillies victory.
Blanton has not had a good track record against the Braves since joining the Phillies last season. The former Athletics ace has compiled only one quality start in five outings against Atlanta, while not posting a personal victory in this stretch.
Sundays are the day to back Blanton recently, as the Phillies are 7-0 in Blanton's last seven starts on the first day of the week. Also, Philadelphia has responded well when Blanton starts following a Phillies loss, going 9-2 the last 11 in this spot.
With Saturday's victory, the Braves improved to 9-5 against Philadelphia this season, while five of the last six meetings have finished 'under' the total.
Sportsbook.com has posted the Phillies as a $1.30 home favorites, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
vegasinsider.com
Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Phillies
By Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-133, 9)
The teams are the same. Only the site changes, when the Phillies host the Braves Sunday night on ESPN for the second straight week.
Philadelphia sends Joe Blanton (8-6 3.88 ERA) to the hill against Jair Jurrjens (10-8 2.91 ERA) in a matchup of steady right-handers.
Off the Lidge
Phillies closer Brad Lidge has suffered through some tough times this season.
The All-Star closer leads the majors with nine blown saves, only three shy of tying Philadelphia's single-season record set by Mark Leiter in 1998. He threw a perfect inning against the Braves for his 26th save Friday. Lidge is 0-6 with a 7.17 ERA, worst among major league relievers with at least 30 innings pitched.
“I feel like I'm getting close. It's been a couple steps forward, a step back, a couple steps forward, another step back. The consistency hasn't been there. I feel good and healthy, and (fortunately) we're in first place," Lidge told the media.
"We signed Lidge to a three-year deal to be our closer," manager Charlie Manuel told reporters. "We had confidence in him, and he had confidence in us. Just because you don't do good today doesn't mean you won't do good tomorrow in baseball. Part of staying after it is you have to have confidence. I have confidence in all our players."
Quality road
43-3. That is the Braves' record when they get both a quality start from the rotation and score four or more runs in games played through August 23.
On the flip side, Phillies LHP Cliff Lee leads the majors in quality starts (23) this season.
Brave hearts
Thanks to a patchwork lineup, Atlanta’s fortunes have taken a tumble.
Injuries to center fielder Nate McLouth and infielder Martin Prado are beginning to take their toll.
The Braves' offense came to life when McLouth was installed as the leadoff hitter and Prado won the starting job at second base. Without their presence in the lineup, Atlanta has slipped back in the pack.
Prado came back for the Padres series after being absent with severe headaches, but McLouth, on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring, will not be activated until Monday at the earliest.
With outfielder Ryan Church and left fielder Garret Anderson in and out of the lineup with lower back ailments, the bench has become thin. Church was back in the starting lineup Friday against RHP Pedro Martinez. Church was removed in a double-switch in Friday's game because of the bad back.
Where’s the beef
Blanton has pitched well lately. Since giving up four runs against Toronto back on June 18, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since then while compiling a solid 2.83 ERA in 11 starts during that span.
Like Blanton, Jurrjens has been pitching well with little support. He allowed just one run on five hits in 7.6 innings of work against the Padres Tuesday.
The fact of the matter is Jurrjens has followed up his breakthrough rookie season with an even better sophomore campaign, sporting a 2.91 ERA this season.
Sunday tendencies
The Braves 2-5 are away, while the Phillies are 14-4 at home.
Jurrjens has lost two straight on the day of rest while Blanton is 15-4 his last 19 team starts on Sundays, including 7-0 his last seven and 6-0 his last six home.