Sunday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
With the first preseason NFL game kicking off Sunday night, baseball will soon take a back-seat to football. However, that gives sharp bettors a golden opportunity to jump on potentially soft baseball lines. The Sunday card involves plenty of intriguing pitching matchups, including one from the City of Brotherly Love, where the Marlins face their arch-nemesis.
Marlins at Phillies (1:35 PM EST)
The Phillies are currently in control of the NL East race with seven weeks to go. However, the Marlins aren't going away, after capturing the first two games of this weekend series. The last thing Fredi Gonzalez's club wants to see is left-hander Jamie Moyer. The ageless wonder has completely shut down and demoralized this Marlins lineup over the years, to the tune of a 13-2 mark his last 15 trips to the mound.
Moyer (10-8, 5.55 ERA) has been pretty pedestrian this season, but his inconsistent ways have benefited smart bettors. Over Moyer's last ten starts overall, the southpaw has alternated quality starts with non-quality starts. Last time out against Colorado, Moyer lost, allowing six hits and six earned runs in five innings of work. The numbers against the Marlins are just plain staggering. Moyer has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts against the Marlins dating back to the beginning of the 2008 season.
Lost in the shuffle is All-Star righty Josh Johnson (10-2, 2.98), who goes for his sixth road win of the season. The Marlins ace pitched extremely well last time he saw the Phillies at Landshark Stadium in April, tossing seven scoreless innings. Unfortunately, the Florida bullpen gave up seven runs in the ninth inning, as Johnson took the no-decision. Johnson is 2-0 in two career starts at Citizens Bank Park, allowing one earned run in 13 innings.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Phillies as a $1.10 home favorite, with the total listed at 9 ½.
Brewers at Astros (2:05 PM EST)
Two teams falling fast in the NL Wild Card race meet up for the series finale at Minute Maid Park. Milwaukee wraps up a three-city road trip that has seen them go 4-4 at San Diego, Los Angeles, and Houston. Meanwhile, the Astros get their ace back, as Wandy Rodriguez left his last outing against St. Louis with a hamstring injury.
Rodriguez (10-6, 2.63 ERA) has been solid at home with a 5-2 mark, and an impressive ERA of 2.12 at Minute Maid. What hasn't been impressive is his recent record against the Brewers, with Houston losing seven of his last nine starts dating back to 2006. Rodriguez did shut down the Brewers attack on May 20, 6-4, allowing one earned run in seven innings of work.
Yovani Gallardo (10-8, 3.59 ERA) was on the losing side of that late May loss to Rodriguez and the Astros. Gallardo began the season 6-2, while the Brewers won eight of his first 11 starts. Since that point, Gallardo is 4-6 and has lasted six innings or less six times. The Brewers righty is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up nine earned runs in a 17-4 drubbing at Los Angeles. Six of Gallardo's nine day starts have finished 'under' the total.
Sunday has not been a fun day for the Brewers, dropping eight of their last nine on the first day of the week. The Astros have drilled the 'over' in eight straight games as a home favorite.
The Astros are a $1.25 home 'chalk,' with the total set at 7 ½, according to LVSC.
Cubs at Rockies (3:10 PM EST)
A pair of unheralded righties that have cashed for bettors all season long take the mound at Coors Field.
Jason Hammel (6-6, 4.62) is coming off a win over Philadelphia as a road underdog his last time out, slowing down the potent Phillies lineup in an 8-3 victory. The Rockies are 6-3 in Hammel's nine home starts, but his ERA at Coors Field is 7.20. Hammel has turned in only quality start at home despite Colorado's success when he takes the Coors mound. The daytime is a good time to take the 'under' with Hammel this season, hitting in five of seven opportunities.
The Cubs have won eight of Randy Wells' (8-4, 2.73 ERA) last nine starts, including four straight. Wells is 4-1 away from Wrigley Field, consistently pumping out quality starts this season (12 of 16). The Cubs have performed well in the rookie's day outings, outscoring the opposition by nearly three runs a game in his seven road starts (6-1).
LVSC has opened the Rockies as $1.30 home favorites, with the total listed at 9 ½.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday night baseball: Red Sox at Yankees
By Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-107, 9.5)
Boston takes on New York at Yankees Stadium under the Sunday night ESPN lights tonight. That just sounds right.
A pair of southpaws, each looking to crack the 10-win plateau, do battle Sunday when the Red Sox send Jon Lester (9-7 3.79 ERA) up against Andy Pettitte (9-6 4.35 ERA) and the Pinstripes.
Back from the dead
Alex Rodriguez ended his homerless streak at 71 at-bats, his longest power drought as a Yankee, when he launched a game-winning two-run shot in Friday’s 2-0 victory over the Red Sox.
Rodriguez is on pace for his worst statistical season yet, but maybe last night’s clutch dinger will spark his performance for the remainder of the year.
V-Mart
The Red Sox wanted catcher Victor Martinez even though he was hitting below .200 in July.
The Boston brass thought they needed an offensive boost. The Sox offered the Indians a good chunk of promising pitchers and as a result were able to add the All-Star to their roster at the trading deadline.
Martinez developed as a youngster in the Cleveland organization, starting out as a shortstop before being switched to a catcher. He also carries a first-basemen’s glove in his apparel bag.
"Now they have another bat, instead of just three guys carrying the lineup," said one well-respected scout.
Martinez should give the Sox the same type of offensive boost they got from Jason Bay last season.
Bay watch
Speaking of Bay, the left fielder has had lingering effects from a hamstring cramp.
He missed the final game of the Baltimore series Sunday, August 2 and the opener of the Tampa Bay matchup Tuesday, August 4. The All-Star was back in the lineup August 5 before re-injuring the hamstring. He didn't play in either of the first two games in this series. His bat is critical in Boston’s quest for the pennant.
Other key BoSox performers injured or sidelined include OF Rocco Baldelli, SS Jed Lowrie and RHP’s Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield.
Penny for your thoughts
Boston has to get more from its starting pitchers if the club has any shot at grabbing a postseason berth.
The last sweep through the rotation saw Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and Clay Buchholz combine for 13 1-3 innings, 24 hits, 20 runs (all earned), 10 walks and 11 strikeouts. The trio also surrendered seven home runs in the process.
Penny, now 7-6, has not lasted seven innings in any of his 21 starts this season, which is the most in the majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment on Friday. The club has 10 days to reassign him to a Minor League affiliate, trade him, or release him.
Go figure
Pettitte picked up his first win since July 1 when he bested Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays, 5-3, in Toronto Tuesday night.
Despite a stellar 40:6 strikeout to walk ratio, Pettitte owns a 5.31 ERA against left-handed hitters this season. On the flip side the big lefty sports a 3.91 ERA against right-handed bats.
He is 1-3 with a 6.36 ERA in his last four team starts versus Boston, but 9-6 at home in his career against the Red Sox.
Lester has defused the Bronx Bombers since being shelled in his MLB debut start against the Pinstripes, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA.
Lester has delivered the goods in nine of his last 12 team starts for Boston.
The Yankees play great at home on Sunday (16-2 this season). Conversely, the Red Sox are just 2-7 away
Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros)
The left-hander took just a handful of days to recover from a pulled hamstring. And that’s bad news for opposing hitters.
Rodriguez (10-6, 2.63 ERA) is fifth in the National League in ERA and ninth in strikeouts (128). He has been the most reliable pitcher this year for Houston and is in the midst of one of his biggest runs of the season. Over his past six starts he has allowed just four earned runs – a span of 40 innings.
In his most recent outing, he was lifted with a tweaked hamstring after four innings of one-hit ball against the Cardinals. But don’t look for him to labor against Milwaukee on Sunday. In his other start against the Brewers this year, he gave up only one run over seven innings while striking out five.
"When you see him have the fastball command, you know he has a chance to have a really good game," Astros manager Cecil Cooper told reporters. "And when he can throw in the curveball, which I think is one of the better curveballs in the league, when he can get that over, he's almost unhittable."
John Lackey (Los Angeles Angels)
This right-hander has been absolutely heavenly for the Angels over his past five starts.
Lackey (7-4, 3.96 ERA) has won five of his past six decisions and has regained his status as the ace of the Angels staff. During his past five starts, he has posted a record of 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 30 strikeouts. In each of those games, he also completed at least seven innings.
In his most recent outing against the White Sox, he allowed just three earned runs over eight innings as he struck out seven.
“I felt like I was in command of all of my pitches," Lackey told the Associated Press after a recent start. "I feel like my strength, stamina and command are all coming together."
Slumping
Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals)
The 25-year-old has no problem throwing strikes. His problem is not letting opposing hitters smack those pitches into outfield gaps.
Hochevar (6-4, 5.40 ERA) has given up 11 earned runs on 18 hits in his past 11 innings. But the young righty has cut down on his walks. In his past four starts, he's collected 34 strikeouts against just three walks.
But so many pitches around the strike zone has been deadly for the young hurler, whose aggressiveness has gotten him into big trouble.
And sometimes, all the wheels just come off the wagon.
"I wasn't getting my breaking ball over. I really didn't even have a curveball today and my slider was flat," Hochevar said after a recent start. "When that happens, they just eliminate pitches."
Aaron Harang (Cincinnati Reds)
May 25. That’s the last time Aaron Harang won a game.
The right-hander has had one of the worst seasons of his career, stumbling to a record of 5-13 with a 4.52 ERA. Over his past four starts, he has allowed a combined 15 earned runs over 20 1-3 innings. In his most recent outing, a 4-2 loss to the Cubs, he coughed up four runs on six hits over 7 1-3 innings.
"We've tried all kinds of stuff," Harang told reporters. "I really don't know. It's one of those things. Maybe we need to be more aggressive, or maybe we need to throw more pitches in the bullpen. It's one of those things that just happen."
Boston (62-47) at N.Y. Yankees (68-42)
The Yankees send veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.35 ERA) to the hill at Yankee Stadium looking to complete a four-game sweep of the rival Red Sox, who hand the ball to southpaw Jon Lester (9-7, 3.79).
New York knocked off Boston 5-0 on Saturday behind the pitching of C.C. Sabathia, coming on the heels of Friday’s 2-0, 15-inning win. After losing nine straight to the Red Sox, the Yankees have now won three in a row against Boston and seven straight overall. They are also on runs of 53-25 overall, 46-18 at home, 21-7 against A.L East rivals and 38-18 on Sundays.
Boston has followed up a four-game winning streak by dropping its last five, all on the road, falling to 3-10 in its last 13 as a visitor. Additionally, the Red Sox have lost eight in a row to teams with a winning record, but they’re still on positive runs of 27-15 in divisional play and 8-2 in the fourth game of a series. Also, they’re still 9-3 in the last 12 clashes with the Yankees.
With Lester starting, the BoSox are on a slew of positive streaks, including 49-23 overall, 7-3 against the A.L. East, 20-7 against teams with a winning record, 10-3 on Sundays and 6-1 when he pitches after a team loss. On Tuesday in Tampa, Lester allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, striking out 10 and walking two, but it wasn’t enough as the Sox lost 4-2.
Boston has won four of Lester’s last five outings against the Yankees, including two this season as he’s allowed a combined five runs in 13 innings to the Bronx Bombers. He pitched in New York on May 4 and gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 6-4 Boston victory.
Pettitte has looked good in his last two outings, including Tuesday in Toronto when he gave up just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-3 victory. However, against Boston he’s been roughed up a bit, allowing four runs or more in four of his last five starts, including an April 26 start that saw him allow four runs (three earned) in six inning of a 4-1 loss.
With Pettitte on the hill, New York has lost four of his last five as a favorite and four of his last five against teams with a winning record, but it is on runs of 78-37 when he’s a home chalk and 41-20 when he faces A.L. East competition.
Boston has stayed under the posted number in seven of Lester’s last 11 starts overall and four of his last five roadies, plus as a team the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 12-3 as ‘dogs, 11-3 as road ‘dogs, 17-7-1 on Sundays and 10-4 on the road. When Pettitte pitches, the Yankees are on “under” streaks of 38-16-2 overall, 41-16-1 as a favorite, 7-1 at home, 8-1-1 on Sundays and 23-9-1 as a home favorite, while as a team New York is on “over” runs of 4-1 against southpaws, 4-1 on Sundays and 5-2-1 overall.
Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 8-3-2 in the last 13 overall, but the “over” is 8-3 in Pettitte’s last 11 outings against the Red Sox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas (61-48) at L.A. Angels (65-43)
Texas sends lefty Derek Holland (4-7, 5.60 ERA) to the mound opposite the Angels’ John Lackey (7-4, 3.96) in the rubber match of a three-game set between the top two teams in the A.L. West in Anaheim.
Los Angeles evened the series Saturday with a 3-2 victory behind the pitching of Jered Weaver. The Angels have been the hottest team in baseball the past two months, going 36-14 in their last 50 games overall and 20-9 in their last 29 at home (9-3 in the last 12). They’re on additional runs of 8-3 against teams with a winning record, 41-13 in the third game of a series and 24-9 on Sundays.
Texas is still 13-7 in its last 20 overall and is on further upticks of 10-3 against opponents that have a winning record, 4-1 on Sundays and 27-14 against A.L. West foes. However, the Rangers are just 9-21 in their last 30 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
The Rangers are 8-3 against the Angels this season and 10-4 in the last 13 clashes dating to 2008, and they have won six of the last nine meetings in Anaheim.
Holland is just 1-3 on the road with a 4.46 ERA and he was hit hard in Oakland on Tuesday, giving up four runs (three earned) on four hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss. He’s allowed four runs or more in seven of his last 10 starts and the Rangers are just 3-7 in those 10. They are 0-4 in his last four roadies and 1-4 in his last five as a ‘dog.
Lackey seems to be regaining his form, going 2-0 in his last three outings with a 2.38 ERA. He allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits in eight innings in a 5-4 loss in Chicago on Tuesday, but the Angels had won his four previous outings, in which he allowed a combined five runs in 30 2/3 innings. Last time he saw Texas, he was shelled for six runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-5 loss on July 7.
With Lackey pitching, Los Angeles is on runs of 7-1 in the third game of a series, 20-8 on Sunday and 19-8 when he faces squads from the A.L. West.
With Holland on the hill, Texas is on “under” runs of 7-1-1 overall and 5-1 against teams with a winning record, while as a team, the Rangers are on “under” streaks of 39-15-2 overall, 36-17-5 on Sundays, 37-16-2 against teams with a winning record and 8-1 in their last nine as a road ‘dog.
The Angels have stayed under the number in 31 of Lackey’s last 45 home starts against winning teams, but they’ve topped the total in four of his last six overall and each of his last four at home. As a team, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 22-6-1 at home, 23-6-2 as a favorite, 41-15-4 overall, 20-8-1 as a home chalk and 7-4 against the A.L. West.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 5-2 in the last seven overall, 4-1 in Lackey’s last five at home against Texas and 5-3 in the last seven head-to-head clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
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