MLB PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (1-1) at Colorado (1-1)
Having captured home-field advantage with a surprising Game 2 victory in Philadelphia, the Rockies now look to take control of this best-of-5 series when they return to frigid Coors Field for Game 3 after the game was postponed on Saturday due to inclement weather. Colorado’s Jason Hammel (2-0, 4.42 ERA) will make his first-ever postseason start, while the Phillies have changed starters and will now give the ball to lefty J.A. Happ (12-4, 2.93) instead of veteran Pedro Martinez..
After managing just a ninth-inning run in Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to the Phillies and Cliff Lee in Game 1, the Rockies came out swinging Thursday and got a two-run homer for catcher Yorvit Torrealba, six strong innings from starter Aaron Cook and just enough relief pitching to hold on for the 5-4 victory.
Philadelphia remains on hot streaks of 29-11 after an off day, 8-2 against the N.L. West, 15-7 after a defeat and 7-2 in the playoffs going back to last year’s World Series title run.
Colorado is on positive runs of 42-16 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. East, 16-5 at home against left-handed starters and 50-23 after a victory. They Rockies have also won four of their last five divisional playoff games (all against Philadelphia), but overall, they’ve still lost five of their last six in the postseason.
The Phillies are still 5-3 against the Rockies this season (2-1 in Colorado), and since getting swept by the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, Philadelphia has won 10 of 13 in this rivalry (four of five at Coors Field).
Happ allowed just one team more than three earned runs in his final 10 regular-season starts. He finished 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA on the road, and in his final six outings as a visitor he allowed 10 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings of work. Happ’s only career start against the Rockies came on Aug. 5 when he threw a four-hit, complete-game shutout, striking out 10 and walking just two in a 7-0 home win. Happ also pitched to one batter in relief in Game 2 of this series, but took a line drive off the knee for a single and was talking out of the game.
With Happ starting, Philadelphia is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-0 overall, 5-0 on Sundays and 5-2 when he’s a favorite.
Hammel had a solid first season in Colorado, appearing in 34 games (30 starts). One of those relief appearances came Sunday at the Dodgers as he pitched two scoreless innings. The 27-year-old right-hander allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, while surrendering just four runs each in the other two. He was consistent throughout the season, going 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA prior to the All-Star break and 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA in the second half.
Hammel went just 3-3 with a 5.73 ERA at Coors Field (compared with 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA on the road), but the Rockies won 11 of his 15 home starts, including 10 of the last 12. The Rockies went 4-1 in his last five starts as a favorite and 8-2 in his last 10 as a home chalk. Hammel’s only start against Philadelphia came on Aug. 9, and he pitched the Rockies to an 8-3 road win, allowing three runs on nine hits (no walks) in 6 2/3 innings.
For Philadelphia, the over is on runs of 10-2-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday and 6-1-1 after a defeat. However, in the playoffs, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 6-2 on the road and 6-1 in the divisional series. With Happ on the mound, they are on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 on the road and 19-7-1 overall.
Colorado carries “over” trends of 4-1 at home, 4-1 after an off day and 4-1-1 after a win.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in nine of 13 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, with the last five at Coors Field topping the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO and OVER
L.A. Angels (2-0) at Boston (0-2)
The Red Sox return to Fenway Park and hand the ball to right-hander Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 ERA) who will try to beat Angels’ lefty Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89) and keep Boston alive in this best-of-5 series, trailing 2-0 after dropping Games 1 and 2 in Southern California.
Los Angeles received outstanding pitching performances from John Lackey and Jered Weaver in the first two games, limiting the Red Sox to one run on eight hits while winning 5-0 on Thursday and 4-1 on Friday. The Angels have now won seven of the 11 meetings with Boston this season and seven of 10 in Beantown. One more victory for the Halos will end a string of three ALDS losses to the Red Sox since 2004 and four straight postseason series defeats since 1986.
The Angels come in to this one riding streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 against right-handed starters, 36-15 on Sunday, 48-21 after a win and 9-3 after an off-day. Meanwhile, Boston is on slides of 2-6 in playoff action, 2-5 against the A.L. West and 1-6 after a loss, but the BoSox are on positive streaks of 55-23 at home, 13-5 in home playoff games, 8-2 in ALDS games at home (all against L.A.), 44-15 following an off-day and 6-1 on Sunday.
Los Angeles is 4-1 in Kazmir’s last five outings and he is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three starts. The young lefty made six starts in an Angels’ uniform after being acquired in late-August from Tampa Bay and he didn’t allow an opponent to score more than three runs in any of those outings.
With the Rays, Kazmir faced the Red Sox more than any other team, going 8-7 with a 3.59 ERA in 23 regular-season starts. At Fenway, Kazmir is 6-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 73 2/3 innings, including two starts this year with Tampa Bay in which he allowed a combined four runs over 11 innings as the Rays won twice, 14-5 and 7-2. Last October, Kazmir made two starts against Boston in the ALDS, with the Rays splitting the two games.
Buchholz has a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts, getting torched in his final two regular-season outings, allowing 13 runs in eight innings of work against the Indians and Blue Jays. Boston is just 4-10 in his last 14 starts against teams with winning records and 1-4 in his last five against A.L. West teams, but the Sox are on runs of 9-1 in his last 10 overall and 5-1 in his last six at home.
For his career, Buchholz is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three career starts against the Angels. He hasn’t faced them since July 2008 when the Angels got him twice for 14 combined runs (nine earned) in 11 innings, beating him once in Los Angeles and once in Boston.
The Angels have finished below the posted total in all six of Kazmir’s starts with the team and as a team, they are on “under” runs of 13-3 on the road, 25-7-1 overall, 21-6-1 following a win, 15-5-1 against winning teams, 10-1 on the road against right-handed starters, 5-0-2 in playoff road games and 3-0-1 in all playoff contests.
The Red Sox have topped the total in seven of Buchholz’s last 10 starts as a favorite and five of seven against A.L. West foes. As a team, Boston is on “over” runs of 8-2-2 in playoff home games, 10-2 as a favorite, 4-1 in the third game of a series and 8-2 at home against left-handed starters.
Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 5-1 in the last six overall and 3-1-1 in the last five at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
N.Y. Yankees (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2)
The Yankees send veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA) to the mound at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, trying to deliver the knockout blow to the Twins and starter Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10). New York leads this best-of-5 ALDS 2-0 after holding serve at home in the first two games.
New York’s Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira became the latest postseason heroes in the Big Apple after Rodriguez delivered a two-run ninth-inning homer to tie the game at 3-3 and then Teixeira’s solo blast in the 11th inning gave the Yankees the 4-3 win, which came on the heels of a 7-2 rout in Game 1. New York is an impressive 9-0 against Minnesota this season, including 4-1 in the Metrodome dating to last season, and a whopping 49-16 in the last 65 clashes.
The Yankees have lost six consecutive road playoff games, but otherwise it’s a plethora of positive streaks for the Bronx Bombers, including 43-17 overall, 44-21 on Sundays, 43-16 against right-handed starters, 39-14 against A.L. Central teams, 68-31 in the third game of a series and 44-17 as a favorite. The Twins are just 16-38 in their last 54 against A.L. East teams and 5-17 in their last 22 playoff games, including 0-7 at home. However, they are on positive runs of 17-6 overall, 10-1 at home, 5-1 against southpaws and 37-14 at home against left-handed starters.
The Yankees lost three of Pettitte’s final four regular-season starts, including an Oct. 3 loss in Tampa as he gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-3 defeat. Still, New York is on several positive runs with Pettitte on the hill, including 8-3 overall, 37-18 when he’s a road chalk, 20-8 against the A.L. Central and 6-1 when he’s a favorite anywhere. Also, Pettitte went 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA on the road this season.
In 19 career starts against the Twins, Pettitte is 9-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 131 1/3 innings, including two complete games, and he’s 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 12 career outings at the Metrodome (82 innings). He faced the Twins once this season giving up four runs in 6 2/3 innings back in May, winning 7-6. Finally, in 11 postseasons (10 with the Yankees), Pettitte is 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA.
Pavano was roughed up a bit at the end of the regular season, posting an 8.27 ERA in the final three games, giving up four runs or more in each of the last three after a streak of six straight where he held the opposition to three runs or less. Minnesota is 5-1 in Pavano’s last six outings and 4-1 the last five times he’s been an underdog.
Pavano, who made 26 starts in four injury-plagued seasons with the Yankees from 2005-08, has just four career starts against his former team, posting an 0-1 mark with a 4.76 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. He saw them twice this season as a member of the Indians, allowing a combined four runs on 11 hits in 13 1/3 innings, losing in New York, but winning in Cleveland. The right-hander has made just six career starts in the Metrodome, going 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA, and he went 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in eight playoff appearances (two starts) with the Marlins in their run to the 2003 World Series title.
It’s been nothing but “unders” with Pettitte on the hill for New York, including 53-24-2 overall, 44-20-1 as a favorite, 24-8-1 on the road, 19-6-1 in the third game of a series, 18-7-3 on Sundays, 4-0 after seven or more days of rest and 5-1 against the A.L. Central. As a team, the Yankees are on “under” streaks of 12-3-1 after a win, 7-2 in playoff road games, 7-2-1 overall, 7-1-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 against A.L. Central squads.
The Twins have topped the total in six of their last nine overall and four straight at home, but they are on “under” runs of 10-4-2 as an underdog, 44-19-3 on Sundays, 20-6-2 against the A.L. East, 4-1 in playoff games and 5-1-1 as a home ‘dog.
Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in three of the last four, but the over is 5-2 in Pettitte’s last seven outings against Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
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Sunday's Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
Andy Pettitte (New York Yankees) vs. Carl Pavano (Minnesota Twins)
Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA)
Pettitte and Pavano were teammates for two seasons in the Big Apple. But while Pavano couldn’t stand the spotlight in New York, Pettitte flourished. The veteran lefty has won at least 14 games in his three seasons back in the Empire State including this season.
Pettitte wrapped the regular season going 1-2 with a 4.41 ERA. The numbers were on par with his season but Pettitte did struggle to go past the sixth inning in the final month of the schedule. His last start, he went on 4 1-3 innings, giving up five runs (three earned) to the Tampa Bay Rays.
Pettitte owns a career 9-5 record and 3.70 ERA against the Twins. He last faced them in the middle of May, lasting just under seven innings while allowing four earned runs on 12 hits in a 7-6 victory.
He’s no stranger to October baseball and has performed on the biggest stages including being on the mound for World Series clincher against the Mets in 2000. In the playoffs, Pettitte owns a 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA.
Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10 ERA)
Pavano got a ticket to the postseason, coming to the Twins from the Cleveland Indians midway through the year. The veteran righty went 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA in his 12 starts for Minnesota.
He closed out the schedule with 2-1 record but an ERA just south of 9.00. He failed to go at least six innings in two of those starts and was beat up for seven run in his final road start at the end of September.
Pavano has faced the Yankees twice this year while still a member of the Tribe. He was solid, allowing only four total runs in over 13 innings of work. For his career he has a 3.50 ERA against New York.
Pavano hasn’t pitched in the postseason since his days with the Florida Marlins. In 2003, he went 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in eight appearances and helped the Marlins shock the Yankees in the World Series.
MLB Playoffs
Red Sox scored one run in losing two games in Anaheim; Buchholz has a 14.63 RA in his last two starts (13 runs/eight IP), after being 5-0, 1.10 in the six starts before that- he didn't face the Angels this year. Kazmir has a 1.98 RA in his starts for the Angels; he was 2-0, 3.27 in two starts vs Boston this year, when he was pitching for the Rays. All six of Kazmir's Angel starts stayed under the total.
Minnesota lost big chance to even series when they blew 3-1 lead in 9th inning Friday. Pavano was '08 Opening Day starter for Bronx; he has an 8.44 RA in his last three starts. Pettitte is 1-2, 5.49 in last four starts; he beat Twins 7-6 back on May 18, giving up four runs in six IP. Under is 5-2-2 in Pavano's last nine starts, 3-0 in Pettitte's last three.
Cold weather in Denver, real cold- this is only series that is tied after the first two games. Hammel is 2-0, 4.42 in his last three starts; he won 8-3 at Philly allowing three runs in 6.2 IP August 4th. Three of his last four starts went over the total. Phillies switched to Happ for this game after the postponement because Rockies aren't as good against lefties. Happ has a 5.24 RA in his last five starts, with four stayed under the total.