Thursday's Best MLB Mound Matchup
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44)
Halladay is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his two postseason outings, including his no-hit shutout of the Reds in Game 1 of the NLDS. However in his most recent outing he was much less dominant, getting tagged for four runs on eight hits over seven innings, including giving up a pair of home runs to Cody Ross.
"His command wasn't as sharp as it has been," Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "Unfortunately, he keeps raising the bar. People think you're supposed to do that every time. It's tough to pitch a no-hitter every night."
But far be it from Halladay to fear the Giants lineup. In the regular season, the right-hander finished first in the National League in innings pitched (250.2), second in WHIP (1.04) and strikeouts (219) and third in ERA.
The Giants, however, haven’t been intimidated either. In two starts against Halladay this season, the orange and black has recorded two wins, scoring nine runs over 14 innings, smacking three home runs and hitting a surprising .429. Maybe Halladay should start to fear the Giants.
"At this point you make enough mistakes they end up costing you," Halladay said. "You find out what you're made of. You never expect it to be easy. You battle back and grind it out and make adjustments. If you can't handle failure at this point, you're in the wrong business."
Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43)
Lincecum wasn’t dominant against the Phillies in his Game 1 victory last weekend. But he sure didn’t need much help.
The former Cy Young winner improved to 2-0 this postseason, going seven innings and giving up just three earned runs on six hits. Lincecum did allow a pair of home runs, but otherwise kept a powerful Phillies offense in check much of the evening.
In fact, Giants manager Bruce Bochy actually worried about his ace getting too excited at one point. With runners on the corners and slugger Ryan Howard at the dish, Bochy went to the mound to have a few words with his hurler, who struck out the free-swinging first baseman moments later.
"I just wanted to calm him down," Bochy said. "He's really hyped up a little bit. He was in a jam, wanted to make sure he kept his poise ad he made some good pitches to Howard."
And he will have to make more if the Giants are to take Game 5.
In two starts against the Phillies this year, he has given up three home runs, but only five earned runs over 15.1 innings.
Giants take another crack at Halladay
By: Willie Bee
Will the San Francisco Giants be playing Game 5 of the NLCS with a 3-1 lead and trying to punch their ticket into the World Series, or will the Philadelphia Phillies have drawn even in the series and out to take a 3-2 advantage back home to the City of Brotherly Love?
We won't know those answers until the two teams complete the fourth game of the series Wednesday evening just about the time this article goes to press. What we do know, however, is that baseball fans and bettors are in for another treat as far as Thursday's pitching matchup in San Francisco. The rematch from Game 1 will find soon-to-be NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (23-12, 2.42) taking on the two-time defending NL CY honoree Tim Lincecum (23-12, 3.31).
One more thing we know about Game 5: Halladay won't be carrying a minus 160 MLB money line into the contest like he did in Game 1 on his home mound. Lincecum and the Giants came away winners thanks in large part to closer Brian Wilson's 4-out, 4-K save and Cody Ross' two solo shots.
Thursday's opening line will be interesting. Halladay has been an MLB odds underdog once this season when the Phillies closed plus 105 in a June road game at Yankee Stadium against C.C. Sabathia. Lincecum was a home 'dog just one time with the Giants also closing on the plus 105 number Sept. 1 versus Ubaldo Jimenez and the visiting Rockies. I'm expecting a pick 'em by the close for Thursday's line setting.
Halladay served up 24 long balls during the regular season before Ross took him deep twice in Game 1. Both shots gave the Giants the lead with the second blast coming with one out in the fifth to make it 2-1 and San Francisco staying in front the rest of the way. Ross was barely a blip on the transactions page when the Giants claimed him off the waiver wire from Florida in late August. Now he leads San Fran's postseason ledger with four of the team's five home runs and seven runs batted in.
Phillies hitters have been cold for the most part this October, batting a collective .203 through their first six playoff games and scoring just 22 times. Seven of those 22 runs came in Game 2 of the NLDS versus Cincinnati, with five of those plate crossings unearned.
Weathermen are calling for a 20 percent shot at rain in the Bay Area on Thursday with a game-time temp in the upper-50s and not falling off by much after the first pitch (4:57 p.m. PT). Winds are currently expected to be out of the southwest around 10 mph (1B dugout out to left). Check closer to the game for any changes to that forecast.
Fourteen-year veteran umpire Jeff Nelson is in line to call the balls and strikes in Game 5. This marks his third LCS, first since 2004, with his previous LCS plate assignments – Game 2, 2002 NLCS and Game 2, 2004 ALCS – both finishing 'under' the totals. Home favorites went 9-12 with Nelson behind the dish during the 2010 regular season, with the 'under' holding a small 16-13-4 advantage. Games lined at eight runs or less went 4-3-2 to the low side.
If the series does move back to Philadelphia for a Game 6, we're looking at a rematch from the Game 2 mound battle between San Fran's Jonathan Sanchez and the Phils' Roy Oswalt. The game is currently scheduled for a 12:57 p.m. PT first pitch on Saturday.
NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start, including the postseason.
MLB Playoffs
Thursday, October 21
Halladay is 6-1, 3.08 in his last seven starts, losing 4-3 to Giants (in his first start after no-hitter) in Game 1 of this series. He is 0-2, 6.75 against the Giants this year. SF is 6-4 vs Phillies this year, holding Phils to three or less runs in five of the six wins; Philly scored 6+ runs in all three of their wins. Lincecum is 7-1, 1.87 in his last eight starts; he is 1-0, 2.87 in his two starts against the Phillies this season.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
PHILLIES: (-120, O/U 5.5) Even though Philadelphia is facing elimination, there isn't another pitcher alive the Phillies would rather have on the mound than Roy Halladay. Halladay is the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and he's already thrown a no hitter this postseason, his 2nd of the season. Halladay will make the road start tonight, as he is 21-10 SU with an ERA of 2.44 and a WHIP of 1.04. Philadelphia is 46-38 SU this season on the road, and they need at least one more road win to continue their season. The Phillies are 9.88 and 0.83 units overall this year both SU and on the RL. Philadelphia is 11-2 in their last 13 road games aginst a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Phillies are 38-13 in their last 51 games against a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games overall. Philadelphia is 37-15 in their last 52 games against the National League West. The Phillies are 22-10 in their last 32 playoff games.
Phillies are 15-3 last 18 road games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3-1 last 11 games against the National League West.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 3 (SIDE of the Day)
GIANTS: San Francisco is 1 win away from the World Series, as they are coming off a dramatic 6-5 SU win. The Giants earned the win in the bottom of the 9th inning, another indication that team simply never quits fighting. The Giants are now up 3-1, and get to play Game 5 less than 24 hours after winning their last game. San Francisco is a very solid 52-33 SU this season at home. The Giants are +18.92 and -0.74 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Ace pitcher Tim Lincecum will make the defining home start tonight, as he is 16-10 SU with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.27 this season. It's rather fitting that Lincecum gets the opportunity to clinch a World Series berth for San Francisco, as he has been the face of this franchise for the past few years. The Giants are 7-0 in their last 7 Thursday games. San Francisco s 4-1 in their last 5 games against the National League East. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Giants are 7-3 last 10 home games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 2
Lincecum tries to close out NLCS
By: Tim Walsh
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
NLCS Game 5, San Francisco leads series 3-1, Thursday, 7:55 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -115, San Francisco +105 Total: 5.5
Coming into the year, Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA) had never pitched in a postseason game. Thursday he starts the biggest game of his career as the Phillies try to stave off elimination and send the series back to Philadelphia. Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) goes for San Francisco in what becomes a rematch of Game 1, a 4-3 Giants victory.
San Francisco tagged Halladay for four runs on eight hits, including two home runs in the series opener. The loss dropped Halladay to 0-3 lifetime against San Francisco. His ERA against the Giants now stands at 6.66 and his WHIP is a hefty 1.48. It was Halladay’s first loss since August 30, breaking up a streak of six consecutive wins. The right-hander pitched well on the road this year, going 10-5 with a 2.57 ERA. With the total posted at just 5.5, it’s interesting to note that only one of Halladay’s last seven starts have gone under the total (five over, one push).
Lincecum comes into the matchup after picking up the win in Game 1, giving up three runs on six hits over seven innings. He allowed two home runs for just the second time this year. With the win, Lincecum is now 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last three starts. Including the postseason, he is 10-7 with a 3.40 ERA at home this year. The Game 1 victory improved his career record against Philadelphia to 3-1. His ERA in those starts in 3.09 with a WHIP of 1.03.
The FoxSheets list a number of trends in favor of San Francisco, including:
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (112-87 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.3%, +55.3 units. Rating = 3*).
Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (172-99 since 1997.) (63.5%, +77.4 units. Rating = 3*).