Thursday's MLB Best Bets
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-145, 8)
Nasty weather is expected to treat fans for Thursday’s 1 p.m. season opener at Yankee Stadium.
We’re talking chilly temperatures and a stiff E-NE wind blowing in from left-center field.
Those conditions in addition to a battle of staff aces, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and New York’s CC Sabathia, would seem to indicate a low-scoring affair. But this is the new Yankee Stadium, a hitter friendly park and home to the highest-scoring offense in baseball last season.
Overs went 48-32 at Yankee Stadium last season.
Pick: Over 8
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 8)
You have to love when a team’s stars pounds the opponent’s starter. That’s the case in Thursday’s afternoon tilt between the visiting Brewers and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
The Brewers have to settle for righthander Yovani Gallardo as their opening-day starter. They expected offseason-acquisition Zack Greinke on the hill for the opener, but, instead, Greinke will start the season on DL after suffering a rib injury in a pick-up basketball game.
Gallardo’s no slouch, but he’s struggled against the Reds, with a 2-3 career mark and 5.56 ERA in eight starts. Reigning MVP Joey Votto and Scott Rolen are a combined 13 of 27 with nine RBIs against Gallardo.
Pick: Reds -114
MLB Betting Preview: Yankees, Tigers open 2011 campaign
By: Barry Daniels
Two of the best pitchers in the American League will be on display Thursday at Yankee Stadium when the 2011 baseball campaign begins with a contest between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. The matchup will be the first game of an ESPN Opening Day tripleheader starting at 10 a.m. (PT).
Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best Sports odds product have opened New York, with CC Sabathia on the mound, as a 145 home favorite against Justin Verlander and the Tigers. The total opened at 8 ‘under’ (minus 115).
Though the exhibition season doesn’t historically mean much when the regular campaign rolls around, it is interesting to note that the Tigers and Yanks met Tuesday in the last preseason game for both teams.
Both clubs played their regular’s for the first seven innings, with the Yanks registering a 2-1 victory as 140 home favorites.
That low-scoring affair could be a precursor to Thursday afternoon’s opener when Sabathia and Verlander hook up in what should be quite a pitching duel.
Sabathia, who has led the American League in wins the past two seasons, was 21-7 last year with a stellar 3.18 ERA. The 6-foot-7 southpaw fanned 197 batters and walked 74 in 237 2/3 innings.
Verlander, who had a marvelous exhibition season with a 0.67 ERA in four starts, was 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA during the 2010 campaign. The 28-year-old hard-throwing right-hander also registered 219 strikeouts and walked 71 in 224 1/3 innings.
These two hurlers met once last season (Aug. 17), with the Yankees recording a 6-2 victory as 175 home favorites. Though the combined eight runs barely skipped ‘over’ the 7½-run closing total, the ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 series meetings between the Yanks and Tigers.
The win lifted the Yankees to a 27-10 ledger in the last 37 matchups against Detroit at Yankee Stadium. That includes taking three of the four home meetings last season and outscoring the Tigers 27-15 in the process.
Sabathia tossed seven innings in that Aug. 17 game against the Tigers and allowed two runs on seven hits while fanning nine and walking two. The two runs allowed were courtesy of solo homers by Austin Jackson and Brandon Inge.
Verlander was tagged for three runs on five hits, but lasted just five innings. He walked five and fanned five and allowed home runs to Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.
Verlander may not have to worry about Granderson in Thursday’s opener. The former Tigers centerfielder is listed as “questionable” with a right oblique injury.
New York ranked 15th in the major’s with a 4.06 ERA and 21st with just 83 quality starts. The defense was a strong suit, as the club committed an American League-low 69 errors.
Offense shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Yanks. After all, they ranked first in that category last season by averaging 5.27 runs per game. New York ranked fifth with a .267 batting average and third in home runs (201).
Joe Girardi’s Yanks were 52-29 at home, 64-40 versus right-handed starters, 20-19 in one-run games and 7-7 in extra-inning affairs last season.
Detroit failed to adequately protect Miguel Cabrera in its lineup last season. However, the club addressed that problem by signing Victor Martinez as a free agent. The switch-hitting catcher hit .302 in 127 games with the Red Sox last season and added 20 homers and 79 RBI.
Ironically, Martinez was Sabathia’s catcher when they both toiled for the Cleveland Indians a few years ago.
Jim Leyland’s Tigers must improve on their dismal 29-52 road ledger if they are to be taken seriously in the AL Central. The club was 26-21 against southpaw starting hurlers, 16-26 in one-run games and 7-8 in extra innings.
The early weather forecast for Yankee Stadium calls for mostly cloudy skies and a 60 percent chance of showers. The wind will be out to right field between 12 and 17 MPH. The game-time temperature will be around 40 degrees.
This three-game series will continue Saturday afternoon with New York’s A.J. Burnett scheduled to face Detroit’s Brad Penny.
MLB Betting Preview: LA Dodgers host SF Giants
By: Willie Bee
Opening Day, a rivalry that has traveled from one coast to the other and a mound matchup between two of the game's brightest young pitchers. The weather is even going to cooperate. What more could you ask for?
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers renew a rivalry that started in New York more than a century ago when the two NL West squads cap Opening Day at Chavez Ravine in an ESPN telecast (5:00 p.m. PT). San Francisco will send ace right-hander Tim Lincecum to the hill to begin its defense of the 2010 World Series title. He'll be opposed by Los Angeles lefty Clayton Kershaw.
San Francisco faded from the spotlight during the winter after beating Texas in the 2010 Series. Much of the news entering the 2011 season has centered around Philadelphia's starting rotation and the roster improvements made by Boston. The Phils and Red Sox are the paper champions heading into this season as favorites in their respective leagues.
The lack of offseason attention is probably fine with Giants manager Bruce Bochy. His club is fifth on the World Series odds list at 10/1, trailing Philadelphia (plus 220), Boston (plus 320), the Yankees (plus 530) and Rangers (plus 625). San Francisco is a plus 475 choice to win the Senior Circuit behind the Phils at plus 175, and even money to defend its NL West title, just ahead of Colorado (plus 115).
Lincecum was last seen on a major league mound in the fifth and final game of the Fall Classic. San Francisco won four of his five postseason starts and 21 of his 33 regular season assignments.
Three of Lincecum's 2010 starts came against the Dodgers with the Giants winning each time. This will be his 10th career start versus LA; San Francisco is 7-2 in the previous nine and has won six of the last seven.
The Dodgers, picked third in the NL West at plus 390, won back-to-back division titles in 2008-09 and reached the NLCS both seasons only to fall in five games both times to the Phillies. Los Angeles slumped to fourth in 2010 with an 80-82 record in manager Joe Torre's final season at the helm. Don Mattingly, who coached under Torre with the Yankees and Dodgers, will be managing his first official MLB game after being named Torre's replacement.
Kershaw made four trips to the mound versus the Giants in 2010 with Los Angeles winning twice. The Dodgers were 1-1 in his two home starts, and would've been 2-0 in those games except for a bullpen meltdown in one affair.
That meltdown coincidentally came in the only career head-to-head meeting between Kershaw and Lincecum on July 20. Los Angeles built a 5-1 lead against Lincecum who didn't make it out of the fifth having allowed all five runs. Kershaw left after six innings with the Dodgers up 5-4, two of the San Fran runs made possible by left-fielder Xavier Paul's error. Closer Jonathan Broxton's wildness in the top of the ninth did the rest of the damage in a 7-5 Giants win.
Kershaw and the Dodgers closed as minus 117 chalk in that loss.
San Francisco won 10 of the 18 meetings between the two clubs in 2010, going 5-4 at home and in Los Angeles.
Each club is coming out of spring training with some injury concerns, most notably Giants closer Brian Wilson who is nursing an oblique strain. Lefty Jeremy Affeldt and righty Sergio Romo are the most likely candidates to work the ninth inning for San Francisco while Wilson is out.
Los Angeles will be missing third baseman Casey Blake (back injury). Juan Uribe, a big part of San Fran's 2010 success, will be at third in Blake's place with Jamey Carroll playing second base, Uribe's position once Blake returns.
Weather forecasters are calling for an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 80s, that number likely to be reached just before first pitch. There's little to no chance of rain with a slight breeze from the north (in from center).
The four-game set continues Friday evening followed by an afternoon game on Saturday and another twilight affair to end it when ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball cameras will be on hand. The Giants are expected to send Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner to the hill for those contests. Mattingly and the Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda.