NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (9-5) at Atlanta (8-6)
Derek Lowe (3-0, 4.67 ERA) shoots for his fourth win on the young season when he matches up against the ageless Jamie Moyer (1-1, 7.50) and the Phillies in the finale of a three-game series between N.L. East rivals at Turner Field.
One night after a blowing a 3-0 lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning and losing 4-3 in 10 innings, Philadelphia bounced back behind a complete-game five-hitter from Roy Halladay and topped Atlanta 2-0 on Wednesday. The victory snapped the Phillies’ three-game losing skid, but the offense continues to struggle, managing just six runs in the last four games after exploding for 77 runs in their first 10 contests.
Philadelphia is still in slumps of 2-4 overall (all against the A.L. East) and 1-4 on Thursday, but the two-time defending N.L. champs are 6-2 on the road this year and 7-2 in their last nine against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, Atlanta is still 5-2 in its last seven games (following a 1-4 slump), but Bobby Cox’s crew has now dropped seven of its last eight against N.L. East foes.
The Braves took 10 of 18 meetings with Philadelphia last year, but the Phillies are still 14-6 in their last 20 contests at Turner Field.
The 47-year-old Moyer has pitched six innings in his first two starts (at Houston, vs. Florida), but he gave up five runs in each contest. Philadelphia overcame the shaky outing against the Astros, winning 9-6, but lost 5-1 to the Marlins on Saturday despite Moyer’s seven strikeouts. Dating to last season, the Phillies have lost six of Moyer’s last seven starts overall, but they’re 6-2 in his last eight road efforts, 36-16 in his last 52 against division foes and 4-1 in his last five Thursday contests.
Moyer’s only start against the Braves in 2009 came in the first week of the season, and he gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings, losing 4-0. The southpaw has allowed 22 runs (all earned) over 32 innings in his last five starts against Atlanta (6.19 ERA), pitching between 5 and 5 2/3 innings in all five games. For his career, he’s 4-9 with a 5.49 ERA against the Braves, including 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA in five outings at Turner Field.
Lowe survived a shaky Opening Day performance (five runs allowed in six innings) to beat the Cubs 16-5, but he’s been much sharper in his last two games against the Giants and Rockies (four earned runs allowed in 11 1/3 innings). Behind Lowe, Atlanta is on surges of 16-5 overall, 9-2 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 in the third game of a series and 13-3 versus winning teams. The Braves have scored 32 runs in his three starts this season.
Lowe is 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA in two home starts this season, and he’s 6-1 with a 2.56 ERA and two saves in 14 appearances (10 starts) against the Phillies. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in all 10 starts, and last year – his first with Atlanta – he went 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three games versus Philly, giving up three runs on 17 hits and three walks in 19 2/3 innings. The Braves won all three games.
Despite staying under the total in their last four games in a row, the Phillies remain on a slew of “over” runs, including 27-10-2 overall, 18-8 on the road, 8-4 versus division rivals, 19-8-2 against right-handed starters, 4-0-1 on Thursday and 9-2 in the third game of a series. However, with Moyer pitching, the under is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 10-4 on Thursday.
The under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven at home and 4-1-1 in its last six versus division rivals. However, the over is 5-2 in the Braves’ last seven on Thursday, and with Lowe starting the over is on surges of 8-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 5-1-1 versus the N.L. East.
Finally, the under has cashed in nine of the last 12 meetings between these teams overall and seven of the last nine at Turner Field, with the first two games in this series staying below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (8-7) at L.A. Angels (8-8)
Tigers ace Justin Verlander (1-0, 6.88) tries once again for his first victory of 2010 when he matches up against Angels lefty Joe Saunders (1-2, 4.26) as these teams wrap up a four-game series at Angel Stadium.
Los Angeles took a five-game winning streak into Wednesday’s game but it blew a 3-0 lead, with closer Brian Fuentes giving up two runs in the top of the ninth inning to suffer the 4-3 loss. The Angeles, who lost seven of their first 10 games to start the season, are still on runs of 19-7 on Thursday and 4-1 against right-handed starters, and they’ve surrendered just 18 runs during their current 5-1 run.
Detroit has still dropped five of seven and six of nine since a four-game winning streak. During this slump, the Tigers have lost four of six – all against the A.L. West – on their season-long 11-game road trip. On the bright side, Detroit is 7-3 in its last 10 games against lefty starters.
Los Angeles has owned this rivalry in recent years, winning 49 of the last 71 meetings overall and 36 of the last 52 at Angel Stadium.
After giving up 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, Verlander pitched his best game of the season Saturday at Seattle, yielding three runs on seven hits with six strikeouts in seven innings. Ironically, though, the Tigers bailed Verlander out in his first two games – beating Kansas City 8-4 (on the road) and Cleveland (9-8 at home) – but he got saddled with a 4-2 loss at Seattle. The Tigers are still 5-1 in Verlander’s last six starts overall and 46-19 in his last 65 when coming off four days of rest.
Verlander (0-1, 5.25 ERA in two road starts this year) faced the Angels three times last year. He gave up a combined 11 runs and 19 hits in 10 2/3 innings (9.28 ERA) in two games in Anaheim, but the Tigers outslugged L.A. 12-10 and 10-7. In between, Verlander held the Angels to four hits and four walks in eight scoreless innings, but Detroit fell 2-1 at home. Verlander is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in six career starts versus the Angels, with his only two appearances at Angel Stadium coming last season.
Like Verlander, Saunders got rocked in his first two starts, surrendering nine runs in 11 innings in home losses to the Twins (5-3) and A’s (9-4). However, he bounced back with a dominating effort at Toronto on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs on five hits in eight innings, rolling to a 6-3 victory.
Although the Angels are just 1-4 in Saunders’ last five starts going back to 2009, they’ve won 36 of his last 53 home games, four of his last five versus the A.L. Central and five straight when he pitches on Thursday. And while Saunders is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA at home this year, he’s still 26-10 with a 3.86 ERA in 44 career starts at Angel Stadium. The 28-year-old is also 1-1 with a 5.18 ERA in seven starts against Detroit, but in four home games against the Tigers he’s given up 15 runs in 20 1/3 innings (6.64 ERA).
Detroit is on “over” runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 4-1 in the fourth game of a series, 6-1-1 with Verlander starting and 4-1 with Verlander pitching on the highway. On the flip side, the Tigers carry “under” trends of 6-2 against the A.L. West, 36-17-1 against lefty-handed starters and 5-2 when Verlander squares off against A.L. West opponents.
The Halos are on “under” stretches of 37-16-3 overall, 12-2-1 against the A.L. Central, 23-10-2 against right-handed starters, 36-17-3 in the fourth game of a series, 5-1 with Saunders starting and 4-0 with Saunders facing the A.L. Central. However, nine of Saunders’ last 13 starts at Angel Stadium have topped the total.
Also, the under is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
MLB RoundUp For 4/22
By Dan Bebe
National League
Brewers (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 9
Ronny Cedeno is 4-for-6 off Wolf;
Aki Iwamura is 2-for-4 off Wolf;
All in all, however, Wolf has dominated the Pirates throughout his career, going 7-1 against Pittsburgh, and there's no reason to really dabble in this one. I suppose you could consider a play on Wolf, but at a road -155, it's just too expensive. Daniel McCutchen had an awful first start, but he's not a 14.73 ERA pitcher long term, so this is a bad value. Pass.
Rockies (-180) @ Nationals with a total of 8
Todd Helton is 12-for-27 off Hernandez since 2005 with 4 RBI;
Melvin Mora is 4-for-10 off Hernandez;
Willie Harris is 4-for-6 with 3 RBI off Jimenez
Adam Kennedy and Nyjer Morgan are each 2-for-3 off Jimenez.
You want to talk about a zero value play? That's Colorado right now. Jimenez is coming off a no-hitter, so there's probably not going to be a time when he's a more expensive cat to back. Going back through recent history, guys that throw a no-no, tend to have something of an equilibrating start the next time out. I'd say this one is worth a look at the Nats, even if it's a small play.
Cubs @ Mets (-175) with a total of 7
Kosuke Fukudome is 2-for-3 off Santana.
I'd say surprisingly little background info on batters against these pitchers, though Santana's 2-0, 1.71 career mark against the Cubs isn't half bad. But, the bigger story is that Gorzelanny hasn't been that horrible to start 2010. I'm not sure I can lay 175, even on Santana, and even though the Mets are playing decent ball, but I know I still can't trust Gorzelanny. Pass.
Dodgers (-110) @ Reds with a total of 9.5
Orlando Cabrera is 8-for-20 off Padilla since '05 with 3 RBI.
No surprise here, no experience against Leake for the Dodgers, but interestingly, despite a 4-2 record against Cincinnati in his career, Padilla has really only seen Orlando Cabrera more than a couple times. Vicente has started 2010 pretty poorly, and while he did get his first win against the Giants, he was still less than dominant. How long before Vicente starts throwing it where he wants? Pass.
Phillies @ Braves (-145) with a total of 9.5
Chase Utley is batting .391 off Lowe since '05 with 2 HR and 3 RBI;
Matt Diaz is 6-for-14 with 2 RBI off Moyer;
Troy Glaus is 5-for-10 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Chipper Jones is 7-for-18 with a HR and 3 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Brian McCann is batting .364 with a HR and 6 RBI since '05;
Martin Prado is 7-for-16 with a HR and 4 RBI off Moyer.
What can I say? Derek Lowe has been outstanding against Philadelphia in his career (you think the Dodgers might want that back for the playoffs?), and Moyer has about his his wall at age, um, 65? Lean to Braves.
Marlins (-135) @ Astros with a total of 9
There's basically no data at all, here, though Paulino has been just awful in his time in the Bigs. The Marlins pen is consistently awful, and the Astros are starting to win a few. I would lean just slightly to the Marlins and Sanchez, but with so little to go on, I might advocate letting this one pass us by.
American League
Indians @ Twins (-210) with a total of 9
Mark Grudzielanek is 8-for-17 off Baker since '05;
Travis Hafner is batting .381 with 4 HR and 7 RBI off Baker since '05;
Andy Marte is 3-for-10 with 2 HR off Baker;
Grady Sizemore is batting .324 in 37 AB off Baker over the last 5 years.
Baker is a career 3.14 ERA pitcher against Cleveland, though from the looks of things, there are a few guys that could give him a little trouble. The Twins are absolutely red hot, which means it's probably not the smartest move to bet against them, but at this price, and when Baker could potentially give up, say, 4 runs in 6 innings, Cleveland has a prayer, and 210 is way too much to pay for that. Pass.
Yankees (-170) @ Athletics with a total of 8
Derek Jeter is 3-for-5 with 3 RBI off Braden;
Mark Teixeira is 3-for-10;
Marcus Thames is 4-for-11 with a HR and 5 RBI off Braden.
Sabathia has a career ERA near 6 against the A's, potentially because he's from the area. However, this particular A's roster has done nothing against him, so it's sort of a balance, there. Braden has begun 2010 by posting a 2-0, 2.70 ERA, so he's rolling, but has an ERA over 7 against the Yanks. Tough call, here.
Rangers @ Red Sox (-145) with a total of 9
Vlad Guerrero is 4-for-9 off Buccholz with 2 RBI;
David Murphy is 3-for-4 off Clay;
Adrian Beltre is 4-for-10 with a HR off C.J. Wilson;
Dustin Pedroia is 2-for-2.
This is something of a low home number for the Red Sox, even if it is just the youngster Buccholz on the hill. Certainly makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Rays @ White Sox (-115) with a total of 8
Alex Rios is 3-for-6 with a HR off Shields.
Jake Peavy has begun 2010 with an ERA of 6.00 - not good. Shields is a solid pitcher with a ton of bullets in the chamber, but even he's not been all that amazing so far this year. This line, to me, says that Peavy is going to finally pitch well, and his 1-0, 0.00 lifetime mark against Tampa certainly backs that up. Only Pat Burrell has more than 3 AB against Peavy, so he should be fairly new to most of these guys. Slight, slight lean to White Sox.
Tigers (-125) @ Angels with a total of 8.5
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-10 against Saunders;
Adam Everett is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Saunders;
Carlos Guillen is 4-for-9 off Saunders;
Magglio Ordonez is 8-for-20 with a HR and 5 RBI off Saunders;
Bobby Abreu is 5-for-13 with a HR off Verlander;
Erick Aybar is 4-for-9 off Verlander with 5 RBI;
Torii Hunter is batting .345 off Verlander since '05 with 5 RBI;
Kendry Morales is 4-for-9 off Verlander with a HR and 6 RBI;
Hideki Matsui is 4-for-12 with 2 RBI off Justin.
Good lord, look at all those sneaky offensive numbers. We're getting a relatively manageable number here at 8.5, and I wonder if Verlander's name is keeping it from getting to 9. I don't like either side, as you can see both teams have hit these pitchers, and I'd look at the Over before either team.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Tigers at Angels – The Angels are 9-0 since August 01, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts at home within 20 cents of pickem after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $935.
Marlins at Astros – The Marlins are 8-0 since May 30, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Astros are 7-0 since June 11, 2009 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $925.
Yankees at Athletics – The Yankees are 12-0 since July 18, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $1200. The Yankees are 10-0 since May 15, 2009 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a favorite for a net profit of $1000. The Athletics are 11-1 since September 02, 2007 when Dallas Braden starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1415. The League is 0-10 since September 05, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 0-5 since May 07, 2009 when Jamie Moyer starts as a dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since June 30, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts as a favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $600.
Cubs at Mets – The League is 0-12 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since May 05, 2009 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Mets are 0-7 since April 29, 2009 when Johan Santana starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1025 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since June 02, 2009 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $915 when playing against.
Rockies at Nationals – The Rockies are 7-0 since July 06, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $700. The Rockies are 8-0 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $800.
Brewers at Pirates – The Brewers are 6-0 since September 12, 2009. after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $780. The League is 0-10 since September 05, 2009 as a home 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.. The Pirates are 0-8 since June 20, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Rangers at Red Sox – The Rangers are 0-10 since August 11, 2009 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-8 since September 15, 2009 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $910 when playing against.
Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 6-0 since July 05, 2009 on the road after playing as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $655. The Reds are 0-6 since August 03, 2009 at home after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $625 when playing against.
Indians at Twins – The Twins are 12-0 since June 25, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1200. The Indians are 0-10 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The League is 0-10 since April 16, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
Rays at White Sox – The Rays are 0-6 since April 23, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since April 11, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $815.