Thursday Afternoon Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Getaway day in baseball involves four matinee battles with several teams ready to leave town. Three series wrap up while the Cubs and Diamondbacks open up a new set at Wrigley Field. The struggling Braves look to end their road woes in St. Louis against the Cardinals. We'll start in the Motor City as the Twins and Tigers conclude their AL Central showdown at Comerica Park.
Twins at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST
Two of the aces from the 2003 World Championship Marlins squad oppose each other on the hill as Detroit and Minnesota hook up. Tiger slayer Carl Pavano looks to beat Detroit for the sixth time in seven tries, while Dontrelle Willis tries to break through the win column for the first time this season.
Pavano was acquired by the Twins last season to help silence the Tigers' offense en route to the AL Central title. The veteran righty tossed five quality starts against Detroit in 2009, leading to a 5-1 edge in the series, including three wins as a member of the Indians. Pavano has delivered three quality outings this season, as well as a 3-1 mark and ERA of 4.24, while walking just one.
Willis is trying to reclaim the magic of his 2005 campaign in which the lanky lefty won 22 games and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Since 2006, D-Train has won just 23 games, including one as a member of the Tigers. Willis has put together a pair of quality starts on the road this month, but the southpaw has walked more batters (10) than struck out (9). In his only meeting against the Twins, Willis allowed four earned runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings of a 14-10 loss last May.
Minnesota has been dynamite away from Target Field this season, winning eight of the last ten on the highway, including Tuesday's 2-0 shutout. Detroit has gone 'over' the total in four of the last five at home, while going 4-1-1 to the 'over' in the last six overall.
Braves at Cardinals - 1:40 EST
Atlanta can't get out of its own way following an impressive start, as the Braves try to end their road trip on a winning note in St. Louis. The Cardinals send out one of their two aces to the hill to finish off the series as Adam Wainwright looks to bounce back from his first loss of the season.
Wainwright owns a sterling 1.69 ERA to go along with four quality starts and 3-1 mark. The Cardinals' righty was receiving tremendous run support through his first three wins (5.3 runs/game), but the Redbirds were blanked, 2-0 by Barry Zito and the Giants in Wainwright's last time out. The Cards are 14-4 the last 18 starts made by Wainwright when St. Louis lost his previous outing.
Jair Jurrjens hasn't won a game through four starts this season, even though Atlanta is 2-2 in his outings. Jurrjens is coming off consecutive quality outings against the Rockies and Mets, but failed to register a win each time. The Braves' righty has struggled during day starts, compiling an 0-2 mark with an ERA of 7.00. The 'under' has been a profitable play for Jurrjens as a road underdog, hitting the 'under' in eight of the last ten in this spot.
Both these pitchers have turned in fantastic performances against their opponent, as the Cards are 4-0 in Wainwright's four career starts versus the Braves. Atlanta is just 1-2 in Jurrjens' three starts against St. Louis, but the righty turned in a six-hit effort in eight scoreless innings of a 1-0 win at Busch Stadium last September.
White Sox at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST
A pair of below .500 teams finish up a three-game set in Arlington as the White Sox look to improve on a 2-6 road mark. Chicago sends out struggling righty Gavin Floyd to the mound to oppose another stumbling starter in Texas right-hander Scott Feldman.
Floyd has allowed 16 earned runs in his last three starts (13.1 IP), including 11 earned runs in two road outings. The worst part is Floyd has been lit up by two of the worst offenses in the American League (Cleveland and Seattle), as Texas ranks a notch above those teams. Floyd has made only two career starts against the Rangers, with both coming in Arlington. The righty was racked his last time in Texas, giving up six earned runs in 2.2 innings of a 7-2 loss in July 2008.
Feldman was the ace of the Rangers' staff last season, but has failed to find that form recently. The right-hander delivered a pair of gems at home against the Mariners and Blue Jays, but was chased early in each of the last two starts versus the Yankees and Tigers. Feldman allowed 12 runs (eight earned) in just six innings of the last two outings, both Rangers losses.
Following four consecutive 'overs,' the White Sox have finished 'under' in each of the last two games, while the Rangers are 8-2 the last ten home meetings in this series.
Diamondbacks at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST
Chicago looks to bounce back after dropping two of three to Washington, as the Cubs open up a four-game set at Wrigley Field against the D-Backs. Arizona is coming off a wild 12-11 victory in ten innings at Colorado on Wednesday, taking two of three from the Rockies. The Cubs send out Ted Lilly for his home debut of the season, trying to capitalize off a victory at Milwaukee on Saturday.
Lilly scattered three hits in six scoreless innings against the Brewers after missing the first three weeks of the season recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. The Cubs were 11-2 in Lilly's 13 starts as a home favorite last season, while going 'under' the total in 16 of the last 18 at Wrigley as home 'chalk.' Lilly has faced the D-Backs just once at home as a member of the Cubs, shutting down Arizona in a three-hit, seven-inning effort as Chicago cruised to a 10-3 victory back in May 2008.
Ian Kennedy has failed to win a game in four starts with the D-Backs, as Arizona has lost each of his last three outings. The ex-Yankee is coming off his most productive start in Arizona, holding the powerful Phillies offense to four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of work, but Philadelphia pulled out a 3-2 win. After giving up nine earned runs in his first 9.1 innings to start the season, Kennedy has yielded just two earned runs over the last 13 innings.
The 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight for the D-Backs, while the 'under' has gone 8-2-2 in the previous 12 games for the Cubs.
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Milwaukee (9-12) at San Diego (13-8)
The Padres return home from a successful road trip when they open a four-game weekend series against the Brewers at Petco Park, with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 0.82 ERA) set to take the mound for the hosts opposite veteran Doug Davis (0-2, 8.35) in a battle of left-handers.
Milwaukee capped a six-game homestand with Wednesday afternoon’s 6-5, 14-inning loss to the Pirates, as closer Trevor Hoffman blew a ninth-inning lead against Pittsburgh for the second straight day. The Brewers have followed up a four-game winning streak – all on the road in which they outscored the opposition 47-8 – by losing five of their last six. In addition to winning four straight on the highway, the Brewers are on positive runs of 4-0 against winning teams and 7-3 on Thursday, but they’re 3-8 in their last 11 series openers.
San Diego rallied from a 4-0 deficit in Florida on Wednesday and prevailed 6-4 to finish off a 4-2 road trip. Since starting the season 3-6, the Padres have ripped off 10 wins in their last 12 games, including six straight victories at Petco. Additionally, San Diego has won five of six against the N.L. Central and four of its last five series openers, but it is also 1-4 in its last five on Thursday.
The Padres have taken five of seven from Milwaukee going back to September 2008, and they’re 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego.
Davis started the season with three horrible starts, giving up 15 runs on 24 hits in 12 innings, though the Brewers found a way to win two of those three contests. Then on Saturday, he delivered his best performance of the season against the Cubs at home (two runs, six hits in 6 1/3 innings), but he got no run support and lost 5-1.
Despite Davis’ struggles this season, with the lefty on the hill Milwaukee is still on positive runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 7-0 on the road against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday. Also, the Brewers are 4-0 in Davis’ last four starts against the Padres. For his career, the 34-year-old California native is 8-6 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts against San Diego (4-1, 3.18 ERA in seven starts at Petco).
Furthermore, Davis’ last 11 starts against the Padres – all with the Diamonbacks from 2006-2009 – have been quality outings, as he pitched at least six innings and yielded three earned runs or fewer in each contest. Also, San Diego is 3-11 the last 14 times they’ve faced Davis.
LeBlanc has delivered a pair of gems in his first two starts of 2010, giving up one run in five innings in leading the Padres to a 5-3 home win over Arizona, followed by Saturday’s 5-0 win in Cincinnati in which he scattered three hits and two walks in six scoreless innings. Going back to September, LeBlanc has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, posting a 1.58 ERA during this stretch, and the Padres are 7-2 in his last nine trips to the mound.
LeBlanc, who has pitched in 16 games (15 starts) since San Diego brought him to the big leagues in late 2008, is 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in six games (five starts) at Petco Park, allowing eight runs in 29 2/3 innings. He has never faced the Brewers.
Milwaukee is on a slew of “over” runs, including 21-6-4 overall, 13-3-2 on the road, 20-6-3 in series openers, 5-0-1 versus the N.L. West, 12-2 on Thursday, 4-1-1 behind Davis overall and 2-0-2 when Davis faces the N.L. West. Conversely, other than a 16-5 “over” run on Thursday, San Diego is on “under” streaks of 6-3-2 overall, 18-7-2 at home and 5-2-1 versus the N.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 5-1 in the last six Padres-Brewers meetings in San Diego.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
MLB RoundUp For 4/29
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves @ Cardinals (-200) with a total of 7
Matt Diaz is 2-for-5 off Wainwright;
Omar Infante is 4-for-6 with 1 RBI off Wainwright;
Chipper Jones is 3-for-8 since '05 off Wainwright;
Matt Holliday is 7-for-13 with 4 RBI off Jurrjens;
Ryan Ludwick is 4-for-10 off Jurrjens.
Jurrjens is a career 2.14 ERA pitcher against the Cards, but Wainwright can do him one better, going a perfect 4-0 against Atlanta with a 1.50 ERA. Wainwright could very well toss a complete game shutout, but can we trust Jurrjens to do his part? He's started 2010 a little behind where he'd like, but the fat that Pujols doesn't hit Jurrjens well could be just what the doctor ordered. I don't like either side, but this one could sneak Under even that low total.
D'backs @ Cubs (-165) with a total of N/A
Kelly Johnson is 3-for-8 off Lilly;
Adam Laroche is 6-for-15 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lilly;
Chris Young is 5-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lilly.
The Cubs haven't seen Kennedy before, but as you can see, there are a handful of D'backs that have hit Lilly. Still, with Lilly posting an heroic start off the DL, it seems like he's just picking right up where he left off, and going against him is putting us in a tough spot. Chicago's playing better, and the D'backs only play well at home and in Colorado. Pass.
Reds @ Astros (-170) with a total of 7.5
Laynce Nix is 5-for-12 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Oswalt;
Brandon Phillips is 10-for-31 off Oswalt since '05;
Joey Votto is batting .304 off Oswalt with 3 RBI off Oswalt since '05;
Pedro Feliz is 4-for-11 with a HR and 3 RBI off Arroyo;
Kaz Matsui is 5-for-14 with 2 RBI off Arroyo;
Hunter Pence is 9-for-24 off Arroyo with 3 RBI.
Roy Oswalt is a career 23-1 against the Reds. 'Nuff said, there. Arroyo had a great start to open the season, but has since hit the skids, and while I don't necessarily trust the 'Stros offense, it's tough to argue with 23-1. Hmm...
Brewers @ Padres (-145) with a total of 7.5
Everth Cabrera is 4-for-8 off Davis;
Scott Hairston is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Davis;
Chase Headley is 6-for-19 off Davis;
Yorvit Torrealba is 5-for-14 off Davis.
Doug Davis, despite those 4 guys hitting him relatively hard, is 10-3 lifetime against the Padres. Wade LeBlanc has hit the ground running this year, but this price is too high to back a Padres team potentially coming back to Earth after that 8-game winning streak. I'd prefer to take Brewers, but I'm just never sure about putting money behind Davis. Probably a pass.
Pirates @ Dodgers (-240) with a total of 8.5
Reed Johnson is 2-for-5 off Burres.
We'll make this one simple - I don't trust the frighteningly cold Dodgers right now, especially not at this price, and I don't trust the always-terrible Pirates, especially not with this Burres kid on the hill. Pass.
American League
Twins (-145) @ Tigers with a total of 9.5
Orlando Hudson is 4-for-10 with a HR and 4 RBI off Willis;
Justin Morneau is 2-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI off Willis;
Delmon Young is 3-for-8 with an RBI off Willis;
Johnny Damon is 4-for-11 with an RBI off Pavano;
Brandon Inge is 5-for-14 with 3 RBI off Pavano;
Magglio Ordonez is 5-for-12 with 3 RBI off Pavano.
Carl Pavano is strikingly tough on the Tigers, going 4-1 against them with a 3.00 ERA. Dontrelle has been better this year than I think most expected, but his lifetime 7.94 ERA against the Twinkies means there isn't much value in fading him, nor is there a ton of reason to get behind him. I think it's got to be Twins or nothing, here, but at -145? Not too tempting.
White Sox @ Rangers (-130) with a total of 9.5
Alex Rios is 4-for-10 with a HR and 3 RBI off Feldman;
Carlos Quentin is 2-for-5 with a HR off Feldman;
David Murphy is 1-for-1 with a 2-run shot off Floyd.
Scott Feldman is well on his way to coming back to the mean off last year's tremendous season. Unfortunately, Gavin Floyd is well on his way to his worst professional season. I know, it's still early, but 0-2, 8.38 is pretty rough. His 9.35 ERA against Texas isn't too inspiring either. Still, awfully low line considering how badly Floyd is stinking, no?
Yankees (-185) @ Orioles with a total of 8.5
Nick Markakis is batting .314 off Burnett with 3 RBI;
Nolan Reimold is 3-for-4 with a HR off Burnett;
Luke Scott is 6-for-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Burnett;
Miguel Tejada is 5-for-15 with an RBI off Burnett.
Brian Matusz has a win in his start against the Yankees, and Burnett, despite a 5.23 ERA, somehow is 9-2 against the Orioles, so you have to think he's been a little lucky. This line seems awfully inflated on the Yankees side, and I just wonder if it's too good to be true to back Baltimore here. The overnight move will tell us a great deal on this one.
Athletics @ Blue Jays (-135) with a total of 7.5
Rajai Davis is 2-for-4 off Romero, and Kurt Suzuki is 2-for-5 off Romero;
John Buck is 1-for-2 with a HR off Duchscherer.
This is a battle of some starters off to great beginnings to 2010, and I just wonder if there's any value left on this Under, or if the tremendous early-season numbers have wiped that out. Romero is 2-0, 1.29 ERA against Oakland, and Duch is 1-0, 3.09 ERA against Toronto. Tough call, not a ton of "value" anywhere, though I suppose you could make the case that a close game means value on the dog.
Royals @ Rays (-250) with a total of 8.5
Yuny Betancourt is 5-for-10 with an RBI off Garza;
Billy Butler is 6-for-14 off Garza;
David DeJesus is 6-for-18 with 3 RBI off Garza;
Alex Gordon is 4-for-10 off Garza;
Jose Guillen is 4-for-11 off Garza;
Jason Kendall and Alberto Callaspo are each 2-for-3 off Garza;
Carlos Pena is 4-for-7 with 2 RBI off Hochevar;
Evan Longoria is 1-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hochevar;
Carl Crawford is 3-for-8 off Hochevar;
Willy Aybar and Jason Bartlett are 2-for-4 off Hochevar, and Ben Zobrist is 2-for-5.
A lot of numbers here, but Hochevar has made some huge strides since the last time he faced the Rays. Garza, believe it or not, is 0-4 in his career against the Royals. That doesn't mean his team fails to win every time, though, and that's where this line starts to get a little hairy. I'm starting to wonder if a non-premium 1st-5 wager wouldn't be the best value to keep the Royals pen out of this one.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Reds at Astros – The Astros are 5-0 since June 01, 2009 when Roy Oswalt starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $500
Athletics at Blue Jays – The Athletics are 5-0 since July 31, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $595. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since July 17, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $805 when playing against.
Braves at Cardinals – The Braves are 0-6 since June 16, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $890 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Cubs – The League is 0-9 since October 02, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Cubs are 7-0 since May 07, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $700. The Cubs are 0-6 since August 31, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $930 when playing against.
Pirates at Dodgers – The Pirates are 0-11 since July 04, 2009 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since May 26, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Dodgers are 11-0 since June 29, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100. The Dodgers are 0-4 since July 24, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $710 when playing against.
Yankees at Orioles – The League is 0-7 since October 01, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-6 since April 18, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Brewers at Padres – The League is 6-0 since August 14, 2009 as a road dog after an extra inning loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $910.
White Sox at Rangers – The White Sox are 0-6 since May 05, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-5 since June 18, 2009 at home after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $685 when playing against. The Rangers are 5-0 since May 23, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts as a favorite when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $500
Royals at Rays – The Royals are 11-0 since August 13, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1470. The Rays are 11-0 since May 03, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1100.
Twins at Tigers – The Tigers are 0-6 since July 11, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $750 when playing against.