Thursday Afternoon Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday afternoon baseball card is filled with six games for bettors to wager on, including the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies all concluding their first road series. We'll take a look at those contests as well the handful of American League matchups under the sun.
Cardinals at Reds - 12:35 PM EST
Brad Penny makes his St. Louis debut at the Great American Ballpark as the Cards and Reds close out their series. Bronson Arroyo is coming off consecutive 15-win seasons, as the Cincinnati righty takes the mound for the Reds.
Arroyo was a solid 'under' pitcher last season, hitting the 'under' in 20 of 30 starts in 2009. Eight of his final nine home starts finished 'under' the total, including a 6-1 victory over the Cardinals on September 30 in which Arroyo tossed 8.1 innings of four-hit ball. Arroyo's day numbers have never been strong, as the Reds were 1-5 at home last season in matinees.
Penny split time between the Red Sox and Giants in 2009, but finished 4-1 in six starts with San Francisco. The veteran righty still has plenty of gas left in tank evidenced by five quality starts with the Giants, allowing two earned runs or less in those outings. However, in 13 road starts last season, Penny's teams went 4-9. Penny did beat three playoff teams on the highway with victories over the Angels, Twins, and Phillies.
The Cardinals and Reds split 16 meetings last season, but St. Louis captured the Opening Day contest with an 11-6 triumph. Albert Pujols provided the offensive jolt with a pair of homers, as the Cards knocked out four home runs.
Dodgers at Pirates - 12:35 PM EST
Los Angeles didn't get the season started the way it wanted to after an 11-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Dodgers send righty Chad Billingsley to the hill, trying to improve on a 12-11 mark from last season, a four win drop-off from 2008. Paul Maholm finished 2009 with single-digit victories for the second straight season, as the Pirates' lefty went 4-3 in 16 home starts.
Billingsley didn't wrap up 2009 on a strong note as the Dodgers dropped six of his final seven starts. In that span, Billingsley fell short in four of five road outings, while not lasting past the sixth inning one time. Not finding the strike zone consistently has been an issue for Billingsley, who finished fifth in the National League by issuing 86 walks last season. The good news for Billingsley is the Pirates ranked 22nd in baseball in walks, so Pittsburgh will chase plenty of pitches.
Maholm has been the model of inconsistency over his career, compiling a 17-18 mark the last two seasons. The Pittsburgh southpaw has struggled against the Dodgers in his career, beating L.A. once in six outings. Maholm put together a quality start when he faced the Dodgers last September (7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER), but the Pirates fell 8-4.
Since September 18, 2009, the Dodgers are 2-9 against left-handed starting pitchers, including Monday's loss to Zach Duke and the Pirates (0-6 on the road in this span). The Pirates finished last season at 9-15 when playing the third game of a series at home, but were just 5-14 against right-handed starters.
Phillies at Nationals - 4:35 PM EST
Philadelphia goes for the series victory over Washington, while going 16-3 the last 19 meetings in this series. The Phillies send Kyle Kendrick to the mound while young righty Craig Stammen takes the bump for Washington.
Kendrick made only two starts last season, but is getting an opportunity with Joe Blanton currently on the disabled list. The 25-year old Kendrick finished the spring strong with a 1.46 ERA in seven appearances (five starts). Facing Washington is usually a winning proposition for most pitchers and that's the case with Kendrick, who is 4-2 in six career starts. All three starts Kendrick made against the Nationals in 2008 each finished 'over' the total, but the righty lasted just four innings in two of three starts.
Washington was a profitable 5-4 last season when Stammen started at Nationals Park, including wins in the underdog role against the Giants, Marlins, and Brewers. Stammen's biggest victory came at Yankee Stadium as a $2.30 underdog, blanking the Champs, 3-0. Stammen is not afraid of facing big-time lineups, but the righty needs to pitch into the seventh inning to avoid the Washington bullpen giving up any potential lead.
The Nationals are 1-6 their last seven as a home underdog dating back to September, while being listed as a $1.50 'dog or higher five times in this span. Seven of the last eight meetings in D.C. have finished 'over' the total with seven games seeing at least double-digit runs scored.
What else to watch for:
C.J. Wilson makes first start for the Rangers since 2005 after predominantly being in the Texas bullpen. The southpaw opposes Toronto's Ricky Romero, who is coming off a successful 13-9 campaign, while owning an ERA of 4.30. Romero concluded last season with losses in five of his final six road starts, but began the season at 7-3. The Rangers are 5-1 the last six home meetings with the Blue Jays, while Texas has been listed as a $1.40 favorite or more each time.
Dontrelle Willis looks to resurrect his once-promising career when the Tigers and Royals conclude their series in Kansas City. The former Cy Young runner-up in the National League has won only one game in two seasons with Detroit since being dealt from Florida in 2008. Willis has never faced the Royals in his career, as the lefty will be opposed by Brian Bannister. Kansas City finished 5-7 in Bannister's 12 home starts last season, but the righty has beaten Detroit four of the last five outings.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (0-2) at Atlanta (2-0)
The Cubs and Braves wrap up a three-game series at Turner Field, with a pair of young right-handers slated to toe the slab as Chicago’s Randy Wells (12-10, 3.05 ERA in 2009) matches up against Tommy Hanson (11-4, 2.89 ERA).
Chipper Jones hit a go-ahead, two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning to help Atlanta rally for a 3-2 victory. The Braves, who crushed Chicago 16-5 in Monday’s season opener, have now won four straight meetings against the Cubs and they’re 6-2 in this rivalry since the start of 2009 after the Cubs swept the six-game season series in 2008.
Going back to last season the Cubs are in slumps of 1-6 overall, 1-5 against the N.L. East and 1-5 on Thursday. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won six straight against the N.L. Central, but otherwise carries negative trends of 2-6 overall (all at home) and 2-5 versus righty starters.
Wells made 27 starts in his rookie season and was very consistent, yielding three earned runs or fewer in all but seven of his outings. Over his final seven outings from Sept. 1 on, Wells, gave up one or zero earned runs five times, but the Cubs were just 3-6 in Wells’ final nine starts. The right-hander made 13 road starts, going 5-5 with a strong 2.88 ERA, though Chicago dropped four of it his last five on the highway.
Hanson came up as a highly touted rookie in June of last year and after a shaky debut (seven runs allowed in six innings against Milwaukee), he delivered as promised, winning his next four starts while posting a 0.78 ERA. Not only did Hanson ultimately hold 14 of 21 opponents to two earned runs or less, but the hard-throwing Oklahoma native had 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings.
Hanson went 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts at Turner Field (compared with 4-2 and a 2.61 ERA in 10 road outings), with Atlanta winning eight of those 11 home contests.
Wells faced the Braves twice, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA, yielding just three earned runs and nine hits in 13 innings. Chicago won 4-2 at home, but lost 6-5 in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Hanson did not face the Cubs last year.
Chicago is riding a slew of “under” streaks, including 9-3-2 overall, 5-1-2 on the road, 6-2 against the N.L. East, 4-1-1 on Thursday, 6-2-1 when Wells starts and 3-0-1 when Wells pitches on the road. Also, the Braves stayed low in four of Hanson’s last five starts overall and each of his last four home starts, but as a team Atlanta has topped the total in four of six against the N.L. Central and four of five on Thursday.
Finally, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Cubs-Braves clashes overall, though the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (2-1) at L.A. Angels (1-2)
Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49 ERA in 2009) is scheduled to make his debut for the Angels, while the Twins will counter with Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86) as these squads conclude a four-game season-opening series at Angels Stadium.
These teams split their first two contests, with Los Angeles winning 6-3 on Monday and Minnesota taking a 5-3 decision Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the Twins powered their way to a 4-2 victory on the strength of home runs by Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy. Minnesota is 22-8 in its last 30 games against right-handed starters, but otherwise it remains in ruts of 2-4 overall, 3-5 on the road, 1-4 on the road against righty starters, 2-4 as an underdog and 2-7 in the fourth game of a series.
Despite losing the first two games of this series, Los Angeles is still on positive stretches of 13-7 overall, 9-4 at home, 7-4 against the A.L. Central, 12-3 as a favorite, 7-4 versus right-handed starters and 36-16 on Thursday.
Minnesota swept a three-game April home series against the Angels last year, but L.A. has since won seven of the last 10 clashes, and the Halos are still 6-3 in the last nine meetings in Anaheim. However, the visitor has won six of the last seven between these cubs following an eight-game run by the home team.
Slowey’s season was limited to 16 starts last year as he was shut down in early July because of an injury. The right-hander was solid in a nine-start stretch from early May to mid June, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight of those contests, and Minnesota went 10-4 in his first 14 outings. However, Slowey got rocked in his final two starts, lasting exactly three innings in each game while surrendering a total of 11 runs (16.50 ERA).
Slowey went 2-3 with a hefty 5.01 ERA in six road starts last year, and he’s 9-11 with a 4.97 ERA as a visitor in his career. He’s faced the Angels four times, going 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA (1-0, 4.76 ERA in two games at Angel Stadium). Slowey’s last two outings against the Halos were quality, though, as he gave up a total of two runs on 14 hits in 13 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), walking one and striking out 10.
Pineiro is coming off the best season of his career, as he made 32 starts with St. Louis, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 23 of those contests. He struggled a bit down the stretch, though, going 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA in his final seven contests. The veteran right-hander has been much better when pitching at home (46-34, 3.82 ERA) than on foreign turf (41-45, 4.95), and he’s 5-1 with a 5.40 in eight career games (five starts) at Angel Stadium.
Pineiro is just 2-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 lifetime appearances (14 starts) against Minnesota, the most recent being an interleague contest last June when he gave up five runs (three earned) in s 6 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss in St. Louis.
Going back to last year, the Twins are on “under” runs of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 8-2-2 on the road against right-handed starters, 4-0-1 versus the A.L. West, 8-3 with Slowey pitching overall and 4-1 with Slowey working on the road. Likewise, L.A. carries “under” trends of 34-15-3 overall, 22-8-3 as a favorite, 19-7-2 against right-handed starters, 13-3-2 versus the A.L. Central and 36-16-3 in the fourth game of a series.
Conversely, in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 7-2-1 overall, 6-2-2 in Los Angeles and 2-0-2 with Slowey facing the Angels.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
MLB RoundUp For 4/8
By Dan Bebe
National League
Dodgers (-160) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Chad Billingsley has an ERA over 6 against Pittsburgh;
Ronnie Belliard has 2 HR and 2 RBI off Maholm;
Brad Ausmus is 2-for-5, Jamey Carroll is 3-for-6, Blake Dewitt is 1-for-2, Andre Ethier is 2-for-6, Rafael Furcal is 5-for-13 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, Reed Johnson is 5-for-9, Matt Kemp is 3-for-8, Manny Ramirez is 2-for-5, and Russ Martin is 3-for-10 - look out!
Paul Maholm is 0-3, 5.59 ERA against the Dodgers;
The current Pirates are 4-for-19 off Billingsley.
I'd love to say the Pirates are a value, but Maholm has been awful against the Dodgers. This line is accurate. That total of 8.5, to me, is a half run low; slight lean to the Over.
Cardinals (-120) @ Reds with a total of 8.5
Felipe Lopez is a .448 lifetime hitter against Bronson Arroyo in 29 AB, with 2 HR;
Since 2005, Albert Pujols has faced Arroyo 43 times, he's batting .326 with 3 HR and 10 RBI;
Colby Rasmus is 4-for-9 with a HR, and Brendan Ryan is 5-for-12;
Brandon Phillips is 5-for-12 off Brad Penny.
Brad Penny is 7-2 against Cincinnati in his career, but as a big question mark, he's a guy I'd watch in one start before laying road favorite money. Bronson Arroyo is hugely streaky, if he starts the year strong, we can back him for a month.
Phillies (-160) @ Nationals with a total of 9.5
The entire Phillies lineup is 0-for-4 off Stammen;
Ryan Zimmerman is 6-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Kendrick;
Josh Willingham is 3-for-9 with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Willy Taveras is 4-for-10, and Willie Harris is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI.
This is a monster value on the home team, considering the Phils have never seen Stammen. Even 3 or 4 decent innings out of the youngster would be acceptable. Lean to Washington. Also, lean to the Over, though it's a high number already.
Cubs @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8
Not a ton of experience against the starters on either side, which makes me think this one has a shot to stay Under, and this early in the season, that's a ton of chalk to lay on a pitcher who will probably go 5 to 6 innings.
Marlins @ Mets (-110) with a total of 9
Luis Castillo is a lifetime 7-for-17 batter off Nate Robertson.
Another game without a ton of historical data. This price is a coin-flip, and to me, the game itself is a coin-flip. Pass.
American League
Blue Jays @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9
John Buck is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off C.J. Wilson;
Aaron Hill is 3-for-6, and Adam Lind is 3-for-4 off Wilson;
Ryan Garko, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero and David Murphy are a combined 8-for-12 off Ricky Romero.
Somehow, Romero is 0-1, 1.42 ERA against Texas, but you can see some guys have hit him hard. We don't know how Wilson's going to do as a starter, either, so probably a pass on the side, and a tiny lean to the Over.
Tigers @ Royals (-110) with a total of 9.5
Johnny Damon is 6-for-8 lifetime off Bannister with a HR and 4 RBI;
Miguel Cabrera has homered twice, and Carlos Guillen is 5-for-12;
Bannister is 4-2 against the Tigers, 2.09 ERA.
The D-Train supposedly looked a bit better this spring, but the fact that we're getting a career Tiger-killer at "standard" juice seems like a potential move. Lean to Kansas City. This total assumes Dontrelle is going to get rocked, I'd avoid it.
Mariners @ Athletics (-165) with a total of 7.5
Ichiro is 6-for-9 off Anderson, and Mike Sweeney went 7-for-15 with a HR;
Chone Figgins is 3-for-8 off Anderson.
The A's haven't seen much of Doug Fister, and he was decent last year in limited action, and really, with a total of 7.5, this is a steep price to pay for a game that oddsmakers don't believe will be a runaway. Brett Anderson is good, though. I would look at the Under, believe it or not.
Orioles @ Rays (-205) with a total of 9.5
Brian Roberts is 8-for-18 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Jeff Niemann;
Nick Markakis is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Matt Wieters is 5-for-7 with 3 RBI, and Ty Wigginton is 3-for-6 with a HR;
Ben Zobrist is 2-for-3 off Brian Matusz with a HR and 4 RBI.
Wow, quite a price for Jeff Niemann against the one team that has given him some issues. The value is definitely with Baltimore. I'm not so sure Matusz doesn't dominate this game, in fact.
Indians @ White Sox (-150) with a total of 8.5
Jhonny Peralta is batting .412 off Floyd with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Shin-Soo Choo is 4-for-10 with 4 RBI, and Asdrubal Cabrera is 2-for-5;
Justin Masterson pitched a decent game in his one effort against the White Sox, but Gavin Floyd is proven. This line is accurate. Tough to know how the scoring will shake out, it being so early in the season.
Twins @ Angels (-145) with a total of 9.5
Joe Mauer is an absurd .722 lifetime batter off Pineiro, in 18 ABs;
Justin Morneau is 6-for-14 with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Bobby Abreu and Howie Kendrick are both batting over .400 off Slowey with 1 HR.
Pineiro has made huge strides in his career since most of his appearances against the Twins, and he's had success against the rest of the lineup besides the two big lefties above, but this game is a coin-flip, so the value is with the dog. I think we're getting an inflated total because neither of these guys is a big name.
Under the Lights
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have 11 MLB games on today’s slate. Kevin Rogers has the afternoon tilts broken down, so we’ll take a look at the five contests to be played under the lights. Let’s start with the Cubs-Braves and Twins-Angels before touching on the three other games in Bonus Nuggets.
**Cubs at Braves**
As of this morning, most betting shops had the Braves listed as minus-200 favorites with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can bypass the expensive straight price and take Bobby Cox’s club on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).
Atlanta (2-0, +200) has a chance to break out the brooms and sweep its first series of the season tonight. Jason Heyward has been the catalyst in a pair of victories over the Cubs, blasting a jaw-dropping three-run homer in Monday’s 16-5 season-opening win. The rookie right fielder hit a two-out RBI double in last night’s 3-2 triumph.
Cox will turn to second-year RHP Tommy Hanson for his 2010 debut in the series finale. As a rookie, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 starting assignments. This is his first career appearance against the Cubs.
Chicago’s Randy Wells will take the slab tonight at Turner Field. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in a pair of career starts against Atlanta. In those outings, Wells has fanned eight batters without issuing any free passes.
Like Hanson, Wells was outstanding as a rookie in 2009. He compiled a 12-10 record and 3.05 ERA in 27 starts.
Atlanta CF Nate McLouth is 2-for-3 against Wells with one homer, while Chipper Jones is 2-for-6 against the righty.
In last night’s 3-2 Atlanta win, Billy Wagner collected his first save as a member of the Braves. The veteran southpaw closer struck out the side.
**Twins at Angels**
As of this morning, most books had Los Angeles (1-2, -172) listed as a minus-125 favorite with a total of 9 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Bettors can take the Angels on the run line for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Minnesota (2-1, +156) won a 4-2 decision over the Halos as a plus-125 underdog last night. Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy both popped their second homers of the year, while Carl Pavano worked seven sharp innings. Pavano gave up just one earned run and fanned six without walking a batter.
The Angels won the series opener by a 6-3 count thanks to the heroics of newly acquired outfielder Hideki Matsui, who drove in the go-ahead run in the fifth inning and added an eighth-inning homer for insurance.
Ron Gardenhire’s squad bounced back from the opening-day loss by winning a 5-3 decision Tuesday night in Tinseltown. Nick Blackburn worked 6 2/3 solid innings en route to his first victory of the year, while Jon Rauch threw a perfect ninth to record the save. Rauch struck out a pair of batters in the final inning. Joe Mauer, Morneau and Hardy each belted homers to provide the Minnesota offense.
Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey will get the starting nod in this spot. Slowey posted a 10-3 record and 4.86 ERA in 2009. The righty is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA in four career starts against the Halos.
Joel Pineiro will toe the rubber for L.A. The right-hander has had tough luck against the Twins, posting a 2-6 record despite a decent 4.32 ERA. Pineiro went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA while playing for St. Louis last season.
The first pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Tampa Bay will play host to Baltimore at 7:05 p.m. Eastern tonight at The Trop in St. Pete. Most spots had the Rays favored in the minus 170-180 range as of this morning. Joe Maddon’s club has taken the first two games from the O’s, including last night’s 4-3 win as a minus-210 ‘chalk.’ The ‘under’ has cashed in the first two meetings between these AL East rivals.
The White Sox and Indians will collide tonight for the rubber game of their series in the Windy City. Most books are listing Chicago as a minus-135 favorite.
The Mets and Marlins have split the first two games of their season-opening three-game set. Florida won a 7-6 decision in 10 innings last night. Ronny Paulino hit a pinch-hit single to plate Wes Helms with the winning run in the 10th. The Fish wasted a stellar effort from Ricky Nolasco when the bullpen let a 6-1 lead get away in the seventh and eighth innings.
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