San Diego (21-12) at San Francisco (18-14)
The Padres go for their second three-game sweep of the Giants this season when they send young right-hander Mat Latos (2-3, 4.19 ERA) to the AT&T Park mound, while the hosts counter with southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (2-2, 3.00 ERA)
San Diego followed up Tuesday’s 3-2 victory with a 5-2 triumph on Wednesday. The Padres have climbed to the top of the division standings thanks to an 18-6 overall run, going 8-3 on the highway during this stretch (6-1 last seven on the road). On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 9-3 against N.L. West foes, 22-8 against winning teams and 6-0 against left-handed starters. On the downside, San Diego has dropped nine of 13 on Thursday and four straight when playing the third game of a series.
San Francisco has lost four of five overall, but despite losing the last two nights, the Giants are 14-7 in their last 21 at AT&T Park (10-7 this year). However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch have now dropped seven of nine divisional contests, going 0-5 against the Padres this season.
San Diego has held the Giants to a total of six runs in five meetings this season. Also, the Padres have won eight of the last 10 matchups dating to last September, going 5-1 in San Francisco. Still, the home team remains on a 16-7 roll in this rivalry.
Latos is coming off his best performance of his brief career, allowing just two hits over eight innings in Friday’s 7-0 victory at Houston. The 22-year-old Virginia native didn’t walk a batter and had a career-best nine strikeouts. Since getting destroyed in a 10-1 loss at Florida (seven runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings), Latos has surrendered just two runs and eight hits in 14 innings against the Brewers (2-1 home loss) and Astros.
In addition to his outstanding performance at Houston and a horrible outing at Florida, Latos’ only other road start this season came in Colorado in his season debut, and he gave up four runs in six innings, getting a no-decision in San Diego’s 5-4 win. Also, in his only career start at San Francisco, Latos outpitched Sanchez in a 1-0 home win on April 20, scattering four hits and a walk in seven shutout innings.
Sanchez gave up a season-high four runs on seven hits in seven innings at the Mets on Friday, failing to get a decision in the Giants’ 6-4 home loss. It was the first time in eight starts dating to last year that Sanchez surrendered more than three runs in a game. In his first five outings in 2010, the lefty surrendered just eight runs in 29 innings (2.48 ERA), going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA four home starts. San Francisco is 4-1 in his last five at home.
Sanchez suffered the tough-luck 1-0 loss in San Diego on April 20 despite surrendering just the one run on one hit with three walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings. On July 10 last year, Sanchez threw a no-hitter against the Padres in an 8-0 home victory. He’s 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 career games (seven starts) against San Diego, including 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his last four starts versus the Padres.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 20-7-1 on the road, 19-7-1 versus the N.L. West, 13-4 against winning teams, 25-11-2 as an underdog, 17-5-1 as a road pup and 3-1 in Latos’ last four starts. However, 17 of San Diego’s last 22 Thursday contests have hurdled the total.
San Francisco topped the total in four of its last six games overall, but otherwise the Giants carry “under” trends of 11-1 at home, 9-0 in divisional games, 9-3 as a favorite, 5-0 as a home chalk, 30-13-2 in the third game of a series, 4-1 in Sanchez’s last five starts overall and 3-0 in his last three home efforts.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in seven straight clashes overall and 11 of 15 in San Francisco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Thursday Matinees
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday baseball card involves the top four pitchers in the American League Cy Young voting from last season taking the mound. Two of the pitchers are on below .500 teams and try to jump-start struggling seasons. The other two hurlers get together at Comerica Park as New York and Detroit wrap up a four-game set. We'll start in the Beltway with a pair of last-place teams sending out their aces.
Mariners at Orioles - 12:35 PM EST
This isn't exactly the matchup of the day, but it does showcase both Seattle and Baltimore's aces getting together at Camden Yards. Felix Hernandez tries to snap a personal three-game skid, while Kevin Millwood looks for his first victory this season.
King Felix (2-3, 4.30 ERA) pitched splendid in his first four starts, allowing nine earned runs as Seattle went 4-0. The last three outings have quickly fallen apart at the seams, as Hernandez has given up 14 earned runs, while not lasting past the fifth inning in either of the last two trips to the mound. Each of Hernandez's previous five starts against the Orioles has finished 'under' the total, including a complete-game victory at Safeco Field over Baltimore on April 21.
Millwood (0-4, 3.26 ERA) has been the victim of horrific run support with the Orioles averaging 2.1 runs/game in his seven starts. Coincidentally, the two wins Baltimore has during Millwood's starts have come at home against the Yankees and Red Sox, both one-run victories. Millwood hasn't pitched too badly in his first season with the Orioles, but the veteran has struggled against the Mariners in his career. Seattle has beaten Millwood's teams (Texas and Baltimore) in eight of the last nine meetings dating back to 2007, even though seven of those games were played at Safeco Field.
The Mariners have won nine of the last 12 against the Orioles, including three straight at Camden Yards. With Baltimore's problems at the plate recently, the 'under' has cashed in seven of the previous nine games, as the O's have scored two runs or less six times in this stretch.
Yankees at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST
Detroit looks to capture this series with a matinee victory over New York when each team trots out its best hurlers. CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander fell shy of the AL Cy Young award last season, but both teams are 5-2 in their respective ace's starts this season.
Sabathia (4-1, 3.04 ERA) failed to pick up the victory in his last start against the Red Sox, finishing one out shy of qualifying for the win by going 4.2 innings in a 14-3 pounding of Boston. The Bombers are 3-1 in Sabathia's four starts as a road favorite this season, while the southpaw has delivered quality starts in five of seven outings (both non-quality ones came against Boston). The Yankees split Sabathia's two outings against the Tigers last season, with a 4-2 loss coming at Comerica Park last April.
The winning pitcher in that contest was Verlander (3-2, 4.50 ERA), who pitched seven scoreless innings to out-duel Sabathia and the Yanks. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's starts during the day, despite an ERA of 5.18. Verlander is coming off consecutive victories over the Angels and Indians in which the righty allowed two earned runs and struck out 16.
Detroit owns a stellar 11-5 mark during the day this season, including a 7-2 ledger in home matinees. The Yankees are a solid 9-4 under the sun, while going 9-4 to the 'over,' and hitting five straight 'overs' in the daytime.
Athletics at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST
Both these AL West rivals are surprisingly sitting above .500 as we hit the middle of May, with Oakland trying to capitalize off the momentum of Dallas Braden's perfect game on Sunday. The A's have suddenly won five of six, including three of those wins over the Rangers.
Ben Sheets (2-3, 6.38 ERA) has been downright awful on the road, going 0-2 in three away starts with an ERA of 13.50. The last two outings on the highway clearly point to Sheets' bloated ERA thanks to him giving up 19 hits and 17 earned runs in just ten innings of work. Oakland is 2-5 in Sheets' seven starts, while the ex-Brewer has lasted into the seventh inning only once, coming in a victory over the Rays in his last outing.
The Rangers send out former closer C.J. Wilson (3-1, 1.51 ERA), who is coming off a complete-game victory over the Royals in his last start. The southpaw leads the AL in ERA, while posting the fourth-most innings for starters that have made six starts (41.2 IP). The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Wilson's six starts, with the opposition scoring a total of four runs in his last four outings.
Oakland is a sterling 8-1 in Game 3's this season, while Texas is 14-9 against right-handed starting pitchers and 9-4 at home in this spot. The A's are on a 5-2 'under' run following Tuesday's high-scoring affair, as Oakland has scored more than five runs just twice in the last 12 games.
Indians at Royals - 2:10 PM EST
Zack Greinke is less than a year removed from winning the AL Cy Young Award, as the Royals' ace has failed to pick up a single victory through seven starts this season. Kansas City wraps up its series with Cleveland as the Royals go for only their third win in the month of May.
Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA) has pitched well lately, but just isn't receiving the right run support with the Royals tallying just three runs in his last three starts. The righty is listed as a favorite for just the third time in eight outings, with the Royals' bullpen blowing his other two starts as home 'chalk' against the Tigers and Mariners. Greinke struck out 15 the last time he saw the Tribe at home on August 25, 2009, with the Royals cruising to a 6-2 victory.
David Huff (1-4, 4.60 ERA) has failed to deliver a quality outing in each of his last three trips to the mound, all Cleveland losses. The southpaw has given up 25 hits and 13 earned runs in this stretch, including six homers. Huff beat the Royals twice last season, including a 4-2 victory at Kauffman Stadium last August as a short underdog.
The Royals are hitting .310 at home against lefties, but just .198 the last ten games versus southpaw pitching. Cleveland has dropped four consecutive road series since taking two of three at Chicago to start the season.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 5/13
By Dan Bebe
National League
Astros @ Cardinals (-275) with a total of 7.5
Kaz Matsui is 5-for-13 off Carpenter with 2 RBI;
Humberto Quintero is 3-for-3 off Carpenter;
Yadier Molina is 3-for-5 off Norris coming into this year.
Bud Norris, Cardinals killer. 3-0, 0.00 ERA against St Louis, and a listed underdog of almost 250? That's just insane. You almost have to play Norris for a quarter unit longshot on principle, though I guess the line could be ultra-high for a reason. Still, the Cards aren't hitting well, and we've seen how VERY cold and then pretty hot the Astros get. What am I not seeing? This line is off by about 75 cents, it seems.
Padres @ Giants (-144) with a total of 7.5
Yorvit Torrealba was 2-for-4 off Sanchez before 2010.
Sanchez has really pitched well against the Padres, but another Giant with a lifetime supply of poor run support, his 2-3 record belies his 2.56 ERA against the Pads. I'm still not a full-on believer in Latos...yet. He'll be excellent. He has all the pitches and tools, but that pitch count gets up awfully quick. This price on Sanchez is a little steep considering this is a battle for first place (sorta), and I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually do lean to the Giants. Only a little, since it's not much of a deal, but I think they'll come out strong in this finale.
Mets @ Marlins (-135) with a total of 7.5
Fernando Tatis is 8-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Johnson;
Jeff Francoeur is 7-for-22 with 2 RBI OFF Johnson;
Luis Castillo is 3-for-9 and Jason Bay is 1-for-3 with a HR off Johnson.
Johan Santana has absolutely, positively OWNED the Marlins. He's 6-1, 1.66 ERA against them, and looking up and down the lineup, Jorge Cantu is the only regular batting over .200 against Santana in more than 10 AB. I mean, we're talking about total domination. Of course, on the other hill, Johnson is 7-1 in his career against New York. This one has all the makings of a K-fest, though Johan seems to have lost a tiny bit of velocity, and Johnson throws too many pitches early in the game. There's value here, but it's not jumping off the page at first glance.
Nationals @ Rockies (-215) with a total of 9
Brad Hawpe is 2-for-6 with 2 RBI off Lannan;
Ian Stewart has homered off Lannan in 3 AB.
This is a damn high price to stick on a rookie making his, what, 3rd start? I know Chacin's got good stuff, and I know he has yet to give up a run, but -215 against a winning team? We see plenty of games like this, where if we played the dog in ALL of them, we'd probably turn a couple units of profit over the course of a few months
American League
Mariners (-140) @ Orioles with a total of 7.5
Franklin Gutierrez was 4-for-11 off Millwood before 2010 with a HR and 5 RBI;
Casey Kotchman was 5-for-15 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Millwood since '05;
Jose Lopez is batting .326 off Millwood since '05;
Ichiro is batting .424 off Millwood in 66 AB with a HR and 9 RBI since '05;
Mike Sweeney is 5-for-14 off Millwood since '05;
Adam Jones is 3-for-9 off Hernandez before 2010;
Nick Markakis was 10-for-22 with 5 RBI off Hernandez before 2010;
Corey Patterson was 5-for-14 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hernandez;
Miguel Tejada was 5-for-14 off Hernandez since '05;
Ty Wigginton was 3-for-5 with a HR off Hernandez before 2010.
This line strikes me as odd for a couple reasons. First, Felix Hernandez went off as a -200 favorite at home against Millwood, and allowed just a single unearned run to the Orioles in a 4-1 Mariners easy win. Millwood allowed all 4 runs in 8 innings of work, and his career 8-12 record against Seattle (and 5.05 ERA), and the bevy of players that have hit Millwood hard makes this look like a stunning deal on Hernandez. But something feels off. Hernandez has been walking for more batters than usual this year, and while he completely shut down Baltimore earlier, the fact that he's a cheaper starter than Cliff Lee in this series against a team he completely crushed is just screwy to me. I always love taking the opposite pitcher in a true rematch, and I lean Baltimore.
Yankees (-120) @ Tigers with a total of 8
Derek Jeter is 6-for-15 off Verlander since '05;
Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-10 off Verlander with a HR and 4 RBI;
Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-8 with a HR and 6 RBI off Sabathia since '05;
Gerald Laird is 5-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI off Sabathia since '05;
Ramon Santiago is 3-for-6 off Sabathia.
This game outshines that Mets/Marlins game for most interesting pitching duel of the day. Sabathia is 14-10 against the Tigers lifetime, Verlander just 3-2 lifetime against the Yanks, as remember, C.C. spent a ton of time in the AL Central with Cleveland. There are a few Tigers that have hit him hard, but Sabathia is really off and rolling this year, only having his last start cut short by rain. Verlander seems to be turning a corner, as well, but with these two high-powered offenses, this game could be a 2-1 duel, or if either guy flubs it, we might see an 8-1 win for one of the teams. This price seems pretty cheap on the Yankees, and we should continue digging to find out if this is a deal on NY, or a "hint"...
Athletics @ Rangers (-175) with a total of 9
Eric Chavez is 3-for-7 with a HR off Wilson;
Rajai Davis is 2-for-4 with 2 RBI off Wilson.
Wilson will try to continue his amazing start to 2010, though it's tough to see how he can really keep that ERA at 1.51 that much longer. You'd think bad luck would take its toll eventually. I don't know if today is the day, though. We faded Wilson once before and he burned us, and Ben Sheets, who is indeed coming off a nice start against the slumping Rays, isn't exactly a model of consistency. This line is fair, and I want no part of it.
Indians @ Royals (-205) with a total of 7.5
Asdrubal Cabrera is 9-for-20 off Greinke with 2 RBI;
Shin-Soo Choo is batting 7-for-22 with a HR and 4 RBI off Greinke;
Travis Hafner is 9-for-27 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Luis Valbuena is 5-for-14 off Greinke;
Yuny Betancourt is 3-for-4 off David Huff;
Billy Butler is 3-for-6 off Huff;
David DeJesus is 3-for-6 off Huff;
Chris Getz is 3-for-7 with 3 RBI off Huff;
Scott Podsednik is 3-for-8 off Huff.
This is a ridiculous price to pay for anything on the Royals. You could spot KC 2 runs, and only play the final 3 innings, and I still wouldn't lay -200. Greinke is still winless in 2010 despite a 2.51 ERA, and he's 6-8 lifetime against Cleveland with a rather "normal" ERA of 3.47 against them. Huff is actually 2-0 against the Royals, and he's pitched alright in 2010, though, like Greinke, his win total is fairly low. This is a value play on Cleveland or nothing at all. I lean towards nada.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Astros at Cardinals – The League is 8-0 since May 24, 2009 as a 200+ favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two for a net profit of $800. The Cardinals are 7-0 since July 19, 2009 as a 200+ favorite after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700.
Padres at Giants – The Padres are 11-2 since July 28, 2009 as a dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1505.
Mets at Marlins – The Mets are 9-0 since April 23, 2008 when Johan Santana starts after giving up no walks for a net profit of $900. The Marlins are 10-0 since May 24, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1025. The Marlins are 8-0 since May 26, 2006 when Josh Johnson starts after a quality start and on the road and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $940 The Marlins are 6-0 since September 12, 2009 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $720.
Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 06, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $815 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $660 when playing against.
Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 6-0 since May 19, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1085. The Rangers are 0-6 since August 30, 2009 after playing as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $660 when playing against.
Nationals at Rockies – The Nationals are 0-7 since April 06, 2009 when John Lannan starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Nationals are 4-0 since August 15, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $735. The Rockies are 0-5 since September 15, 2009 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $670 when playing against.
Indians at Royals – The Indians are 0-7 since May 15, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Indians are 0-5 since September 18, 2009 when David Huff starts as a 140+ dog for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Royals are 7-0 since August 06, 2009 after playing as a dog and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two for a net profit of $930.
Tips and Trends
New York Mets at Florida Marlins
Mets: New York has been very streaky this season, both good and bad. The Mets are 4-6 in their past 10 games, and they are 18-16 overall this season. New York is 3rd in the National League East, trailing the Nationals and the Phillies. The Mets lost a tough game in the 9th inning to the Nationals, so they will look to bounce back tonight. Unfortunately, the Mets are only 4-8 on the road this year. Offensively the Mets have perked up, as they've scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their past 8 games entering tonight. P Johan Santana will get the ball tonight, as he attempts to get to 4-2 on the year. Santana has an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.25 so far this season. The Mets are 4-1 in Santana's last 5 starts. The Mets are 4-1 in Santana's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record.
Mets are 7-21 last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-3 last 10 vs. National League East.
Key Injuries - 2B Luis Castillo (heel) is questionable.
CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Marlins (-120, O/U 7): Florida is far more talented than their 16-18 record would indicate. The Marlins are currently at the bottom of the competitive NL East standings. Florida is 7-9 in home games this season, and they will need to improve their offense if they are to get back over .500 both at home and for the season. The Marlins have been held to 4 runs or fewer in their last 8 games. P Josh Johnson will take the mound today as the ace of this Marlins pitching staff. Johnson is 3-1 this year with 3.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. Each start Johnson has made this season has led to the game going over this year, a perfect 7-0. The Marlins are 14-3 in Johnson's last 17 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Marlins are 22-8 in Johnson's last 30 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Marlins are 2-6 last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Key Injuries - CF Cameron Maybin (wrist) is questionable.
C John Baker (rest) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)