MLB News and Notes Thursday 5/27

Thursday Night Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The Thursday night baseball card involves seven contests, including three divisional showdowns in the National League. We'll highlight two of those NL games, including the Braves and Marlins wrapping up a three-game set in South Florida. In the American League, the Rays take on the Sox once again, but this time it's the team from the South Side of Chicago and not Beantown.

White Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay must be thrilled that Boston is out of town after the Red Sox captured the mid-week series at the Trop. The Rays welcome in the White Sox, as Tampa Bay took two of three at U.S. Cellular Field last month. Jeff Niemann looks to stay undefeated, while Gavin Floyd tries to capitalize on a win in his last start.

Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) continues to be a monster on the mound for Tampa Bay, turning in eight straight quality starts. The 6' 9'' righty has pitched into the seventh inning in seven of his last eight trips to the mound, eliminating a lot of effort from the Rays' bullpen. The two losses the Rays have received with Niemann on the mound came as huge favorites against the Royals ($2.60) and Orioles ($1.60), but the ex-Rice Owl didn't figure in those decisions. Niemann faced the Sox twice last season, delivering quality starts each time even though the Rays split those games.

Floyd's numbers (2-4, 6.31 ERA) have gotten progressively worse since a 17-8 campaign in Chicago's last trip to the playoffs in 2008. The righty has struggled to find his rhythm this season, especially on the road. The Sox are 1-3 in Floyd's four away starts, allowing 16 earned runs in the three defeats at Cleveland, Toronto, and Kansas City. Floyd is coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven in 6.1 innings of a 4-1 victory over the Marlins.

The White Sox have not been a good play recently off a victory, coming off Wednesday's afternoon win at Cleveland. Chicago is 1-11 the last 12 games off a win, including an 0-8 mark off a road victory. The Rays are just 5-5 the previous ten games at home, while bettors are down 4.6 units in this span.

Braves at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST

These NL East rivals send out a pair of solid right-handers to the mound for the finish of a three-game set at Sun Life Stadium. Tim Hudson has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball recently by winning three straight decisions in convincing fashion.

Hudson (5-1, 2.09 ERA) has allowed just two earned runs in his last three outings, as the Braves have outscored the opposition, 31-4 in this span. The former Oakland A's righty is one of the top ground-ball pitchers in the game, and while his K/BB numbers aren't great (26/23), his opponents aren't doing much to get on the bases. In Atlanta's four losses with Hudson starting, the Braves have lost three games by one run apiece, including two games being decided on walk-off hits.

Ricky Nolasco (4-3, 4.50 ERA) has had a bizarre season, by thriving on the road and not so much at home. Granted, Nolasco turned in his worst road outing of the season in an 8-0 blowout to the White Sox, allowing ten hits and eight earned runs in five innings. Nolasco's away numbers (3-1, 3.50 ERA) have blown away his numbers at Sun Life Stadium (1-2, 6.14 ERA), as the righty picked up his lone home win his last time out against the Mets. In four outings against Atlanta last season, the Marlins grabbed three wins when Nolasco took the mound, including a 16 strikeout performance at Turner Field in late September.

Phillies at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

Just one week ago, it seemed that Jerry Manuel's job was in jeopardy. The Mets turned things around by taking two of three over the weekend against the Yankees, followed by a blowout victory of the Phillies. Philadelphia tries to close out this series with a bang by sending out Cole Hamels to the mound.

The Phillies' offense has hit the skids by scoring three runs in the last three games. Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) started the season slow with only one quality outing in his first four starts. The southpaw has turned things around as Philadelphia has won each of his last five outings. After 'overs' in four of his five starts, Hamels has compiled four consecutive 'unders.' Prior to a home win last September over the Mets, Hamels allowed four earned runs in each of his last four starts against New York dating back to 2007.

Mike Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86 ERA) beat the Yankees his last time out, holding the defending champs to six hits and one earned run in six innings of work. The righty's worst start of the season came against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park earlier this month, on the wrong end of a 10-0 drubbing. The Phils tagged Pelfrey for six runs and eight hits in just four innings, the only start all season he has lasted less than five innings. The Mets are 5-1 in Pelfrey's six home starts, but four of those wins have come against teams in the bottom half in the runs scored department in the NL.

After starting the season on a nice 'over' run, the Phillies are 13-5-1 to the 'under' in their last 19 games. The Mets are profiting nicely as an underdog, winning five of their previous seven at plus-money.

Royals at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Boston returns home after a series victory at Tampa Bay to improve to 15-7 the last 22 games. The Sox still have a ways to go to catch the Rays in the AL East race, but Terry Francona's team can make up some ground this weekend with the Royals visiting Fenway Park. A pair of pitchers coming off fantastic starts their last time out will square off in the series opener.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-1, 5.76 ERA) allowed just one hit in eight innings of work as the Boston righty completely baffled the struggled Phillies' offense. The problem with Dice-K this season is his inconsistent ways, shutting down two strong lineups in Toronto and Philadelphia, but getting torched by the Orioles, Angels, and Yankees. Obviously, it's tough to slow down the New York lineup, especially when the Yanks touched up Dice-K for five first-inning runs. When Matsuzaka is on a roll, he allowed four hits and one run in 15 innings against the Jays and Phillies.

The Royals send out Brian Bannister (3-3, 4.72 ERA), who silenced the Colorado bats in a 9-2 thrashing of the Rockies last Friday. Bannister has also struggled to be consistent, but is turning the corner with back-to-back solid performances (13 IP, 5 ER). The right-hander cashed in one of the bigger underdog spots this season by winning at Tampa Bay as a $2.40 'dog. Bannister has never beaten the Red Sox in four starts, but did fall short in a 1-0 setback last July, scattering three hits in 7.2 innings.

Kansas City has won five straight series openers, while going 5-1 the last six games as an underdog of $1.10 or higher. Boston has money as a home favorite recently by winning five of their previous six as 'chalk' in Beantown.

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Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

John Ely (3-1, 2.84 ERA) Los Angeles Dodgers

After getting off to a slow start to the season, Ely has been red hot over his last three starts, allowing two earned runs in each outing and winning them all.

Ely's most impressive performance came two starts ago when he held the Astros to five hits in seven innings, striking out eight and walking none.

Ely went three straight starts, or 84 consecutive batters, without allowing a walk, giving up just one in last week's win over the Tigers.

With a fastball that tops out at 88 mph, Ely is relying on his pinpoint control to baffle batters - along with the new-found confidence he brings to the mound.

"I've got enough confidence in what I'm bringing to the table," Ely said. "The fact that if I execute my pitch where I want it, I feel like I have the advantage no matter who I am facing. That's the way you got to go out and feel like every time out."

Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels may be the ultimate boy of summer. As the calendar page flipped from April to May and the temperature has climbed, he has won three straight and his ERA has dropped like a rock.

After going 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five April starts, Hamels is 3-0 in the month of May with an ERA of 2.36. He has allowed only seven earned runs in his four May starts.

"It's nice, summertime," Hamels said. "Your body feels nice, you're kind of stretched out - I have a few innings under my belt, so my body takes over and that's kind of the exciting part of having the great weather."

Despite winning three straight, the lefty's turnaround may have come in a tough no-decision on May 7, when he struck out eight Cardinals and held them to one earned run but watched the bullpen blow it late. He hasn't been leaving wins to chance ever since.

Slumping

Barry Zito (6-2, 2.60)

Zito has gone from streaking to slumping in record time, but the veteran lefty could easily snap out of it without warning.

Still, it's hard to ignore his seven-walk outing two weeks ago against the Padres for his first loss of the season and the nine hits he allowed in a 6-1 defeat to the Oakland A's last week.

Zito fell to 0-4 with an 8.85 ERA against his former team, but he's been across the Bay long enough by now that he didn't blame the emotions of returning to Oakland for his performance. He knows he has some kinks to work out and will try to do so against the Washington Nationals today.

"Today was a lot different than it was three years ago. It was just like any other game, pretty much," Zito said after the loss. "... I definitely have adjustments to make. I'm not content at all. I just have to stay low and keep grinding."

David Bush (1-5, 5.59 ERA) Milwaukee Brewers

It's hard to say a 1-5 pitcher is slumping, but Bush's last three starts make his first nine look like Cy Young.

Bush has lasted just 12.1 innings in his last three trips to the mound, allowing 22 hits and 13 earned runs and almost doubling his ERA (9.49) during that span.

Those numbers are a little misleading in light of the righty's last outing, lasting just 1/3 inning and allowing seven earned runs against the Twins.

"I'm not really sure what I can say other than that's the worst outing I've ever had at any level," Bush said. "It doesn't get a lot worse than that."

Let's hope for his sake that is rock bottom, but his previous two losses to the Phillies and Braves weren't much better.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (26-19) at N.Y. Mets (24-23)

Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) shoots for his fourth straight victory and tries to snap his team’s four-game losing skid when he matches up against the streaking Mets and Mike Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86) in the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field.

New York has blanked Philadelphia in the first two games of this series, following up Tuesday’s 8-0 win with Wednesday’s 5-0 victory. The Phillies have followed up a four-game winning streak and a 10-2 hot streak by losing six of their last eight games, including the last four in a row. The offense has gone stone cold, getting shutout three times in the last four games while managing just five runs in their last six losses.

The Mets have rebounded from a 3-10 slump by winning four in a row, all at home. They’re now 18-9 at Citi Field compared with 6-14 on the road. Also, while the Phillies’ offense has stumbled, New York has tallied 24 runs during the four-game winning streak and 35 runs in the last six games (five wins). The Mets now trail the Phillies by just three games in the N.L. East.

The Mets now hold a slim 3-2 edge in the season series, but the Phillies are still 13-5 in the last 18 clashes in this N.L. East rivalry, going 5-3 in the last eight in New York. That said, the host has won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Philadelphia’s last win came on Friday when Hamels held the Red Sox to a run on three hits and one walk while striking out eight en route to a 5-1 home victory. The Phillies have won five straight games in back of Hamels, with the lefty posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four outings. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 when Hamels pitches on the road, even though the San Diego native has given up 14 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings (5.32 ERA) on the highway.

Hamels is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, with Philadelphia going 2-4 in the last six. He faced New York a combined five times in 2008 and 2009 and gave up exactly four runs in the first four contests before a dominating 4-2 win last September (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings). In two games at Citi Field, he’s allowed eight runs and 21 hits in 10 innings (7.20 ERA), getting a no-decision in one game (Philly won 5-4) and losing 4-2 in the other.

Pelfrey is coming off consecutive wins over the Braves (two runs allowed in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-2 road victory) and Yankees (one run allowed in six innings of a 5-3 home triumph). Including a one-inning relief stint in a 20-inning game at St. Louis on April 17, the Mets are 8-2 with Pelfrey on the hill this season, and the right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his nine starts.

Pelfrey is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six home starts this season and 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts against Philadelphia. In his last two versus the Phillies – both in Philadelphia – Pelfrey surrendered a combined 14 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (four home runs) in 10 innings, with the Mets winning 10-9 (last September) and losing 10-0 (on May 1 of this season). In fact, his worst start of this season came in that May 1 contest (six runs allowed in four innings).

The Phillies are on a 5-1-1 “under” streak, and they’ve stayed under the total in Hamels’ last four starts overall after topping the total in four of his first five outings. Also, the under cashed in Hamels’ last two outings against the Mets after six of his first seven versus New York topped the total.

The Mets have stayed low in six of their last nine games overall, but the over is 4-1 in Pelfrey’s last five starts overall (3-0 at home) and 4-1 in his last five starts against Philadelphia.

Finally, the under is 12-4 in the last 16 Mets-Phillies battles, including 6-1 in the last seven at Citi Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (28-18) at Minnesota (26-20)

The Yankees look to complete a three-game sweep of the Twins at new Target Field, where Javier Vazquez (3-4, 6.69) is set to pitch for the visitors opposite Nick Blackburn (5-1, 4.50).

Monday’s opener of this series was suspended after five innings because of rain, and when the game resumed Tuesday, Derek Jeter hit a home run in the sixth and that was all New York needed as it held on for a 1-0 victory. The Yankees then got a solo homer from Nick Swisher in the ninth inning to break a 2-2 tie and prevail 3-2.

Despite taking two on Wednesday, the Yankees are still just 7-10 in their last 17 games (4-6 on the road), which comes on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 104-49 overall and 41-15 against the A.L. Central.

The Twins are just 5-9 in their last 14 games – including losing four of five to the Yankees – but they’re still 14-9 through 23 games at Target Field. Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 35 home games. On the flip side, they’ve lost 49 of 71 to A.L. East opponents.

Not only have the Twins lost four of five to New York this season, but they’re 17-54 in the last 71 meetings (playoffs included). The Yankees have won six straight in Minnesota, including a victory in the deciding Game 3 of last year’s best-of-5 divisional playoff series at the Metrodome.

Vazquez started out his second tour of duty with New York by going 1-3 with a 9.78 ERA in his first five starts this season, but he’s been much better in his last two starts, allowing just two runs on six hits in 13 innings. On Friday, he picked up a 2-1 victory at the Mets, scattering a hit and two walks over six innings, striking out seven. That victory came four days after Vazquez pitched one-third of an inning in relief against the Red Sox, and he was credited with a victory when New York scored four times in the bottom of the ninth inning to turn a 9-7 deficit into an 11-9 home win.

With the victory at the Mets on Friday, Vazquez improved to 2-3 with a 5.86 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, he’s made six career starts against Minnesota, going 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA. Going back to 2007, the Twins are 1-5 the last six times they’ve faced the veteran right-hander.

The Twins are 6-0 in Blackburn’s last six starts, with the right-hander delivering a quality outing in each of the last four (nine total runs allowed in 30 1/3 innings for a 2.67 ERA). Most recently, he matched up against the Brewers on Friday at home and was staked to a 7-0 first-inning lead and cruised to the 15-3 victory, surrendering all three runs in 7 1/3 innings.

Blackburn is 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts at Target Field, with Minnesota winning all four while scoring 31 runs. He also pitched the Twins to a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium on May 16, giving up three runs on nine hits in seven innings. He’s now 1-1 with a 4.65 ERA in six career starts against New York, including a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 11-inning loss in the Bronx in last year’s playoffs.

New York has topped the total in six of nine overall, but otherwise the Yanks are on “under” streaks of 7-2 on the road and 8-1 against the A.L. Central. Also, New York has stayed low in Vazquez’s last two starts following a 4-1 “over” surge. However, the over is 6-0-1 in Vazquez’s last seven starts against the Twins.

Minnesota is on “under” tears of 10-3 at home, 25-7-3 against the A.L. East and 25-7-2 following a loss. Also, the under is 3-1 in Blackburn’s last four trips to the mound, and his last two starts against New York fell short of the posted total.

Lastly, the under has cashed in seven of the last eight Twins-Yankees battles, including the last four in a row.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

MLB RoundUp For 5/27
By Dan Bebe

National League

Astros @ Brewers (-135) with a total of 9
Lance Berkman is 11-for-34 with 4 RBI off Bush since '05;
Michael Bourn is 4-for-8 off Bush;
Hunter Pence is 7-for-14 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bush.
This is about the last thing a capper should admit to, and I can't check it because my records don't go back far enough, but I would be willing to offer that there are maybe 2-3 pitchers in the game that I've done a worse job of handicapping than Dave Bush. He just has a knack for throwing a clunker when I think he's ready to crush, and go 8 shutout frames when I think he's about to tumble. Bush is 6-1 lifetime against the Astros, so this is a team he normally succeeds against, and despite his 1-5 record this year, and 5.59 ERA, those numbers against Houston might have something to do with this eerily high line. The Brewers are 1-8 in Bush's 9 starts this year, and he's coming off a start where he went just 0.1 innings, so he's not too attractive. Brett Myers has been pretty consistent, and his 4-1, 1.77 lifetime mark against Milwaukee makes Houston attractive. I don't know how anyone can back Bush, here, but his success against just this one team makes me think passing might be wise, or the Under.

Dodgers @ Cubs (-125) with a total of N/A
Jamey Carroll is 4-for-13 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lilly since '05;
Matt Kemp is 3-for-7 with 2 HR off Lilly.
Matt Kemp is clearly the dangerous righthanded bat in that Dodgers lineup against Lilly, as he's held Manny in check. The Cubs haven't seen John Ely, but he continues to do a nice job of holding teams to just a couple runs, and an even better job of throwing strikes. He makes teams earn it, and that means the Dodgers have a shot to win every time out. I think we're getting a nice price on LA, here, with the not-quite-full-strength Lilly on the opposite bump, and a relative unknown going for LA. Lilly is 3-1 in his career against the Dodgers, though, and he does seem to be improving in every start. Slight lean to LA, but this is another tread lightly game.

Diamondbacks (-120) @ Rockies with a total of 9.5
REMATCH ALERT! As you guys know, I generally forgo the player stats, since there's no point in retyping old notes when the real key to this game is deciding whether or not we have value in backing the loser of round 1. Interestingly, this game has just about the same line as the first meeting, which was also in Colorado, and was 100% dominated by Haren, who went 8 innings and allowed just 2 runs. Hammel went just 3 innings, gave up 5, and fell to 2-1 against the D'backs with a 4.87 ERA. Haren is 6-4 lifetime against the Rox with a 3.08 ERA, so he's been decent against Colorado most of the time. Still, not his best season, and the reason has been, quite obviously, the dinger. Haren is still fanning plenty, and he's not walking many, but he's given up 12 homers already, 1 to these Rockies. I don't think the rematch angle is "in play" on this one, since Hammel still stinks a month later, and Haren is still getting a little unlucky. I lean to a second beating at the hands of the Snakes.

Nationals @ Giants (-175) with a total of 8
Willie Harris is 3-for-5 with a HR off Zito.
Not a ton to work with on the Stammen side of things, as he is 0-0 against the Giants with a 6.00 ERA. Zito is 2-2 against Washington lifetime with a 4.33 ERA, but of course, he's been excellent this year. Sorry Craig Stammen, you're not very good, and I'm not sure you ever will be. No leans here, Giants too expensive thanks to offensive woes, and Washington putting a guy on the mound that could give up 4 runs before the seats are warm. Pass.

Cardinals @ Padres (-125) with a total of 7
Wow, this seems like an awfully cheap price for Wade LeBlanc against a guy that really hasn't done anything. I'll be honest - I don't know a ton about P.J. Walters, so no real leans as of yet, but based on the eerily low line, I'd have to say the Cardinals might sneak a win, here. Padres just look too easy, don't they? More info to come, more thoughts to come, no plays for now.

Braves @ Marlins (-110) with a total of 8
Yunel Escobar is 9-for-22 with a HR and 3 RBI off Nolasco;
Chipper Jones is 11-for-26 with 4 HR and 8 RBI off Nolasco;
Brian McCann is 10-for-31 with 4 HR and 11 RBI off Nolasco;
Jorge Cantu is 5-for-11 with 3 RBI off Hudson;
Dan Uggla is 11-for-33 with a HR and 4 RBI off Hudson.
Tim Hudson fears no fish. 8-2 lifetime against Florida with a 2.92 ERA, and he's been better than that this season against the League, at 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA. He's been outstanding in every start this year, so you certainly know what you're going to get. Nolasco, 3-4, with a 4.43 ERA against Atlanta, has been both very good and very bad this year, and against the Braves, in general. Ricky is coming off a start in Chicago where he allowed 8 runs to the weak-hitting White Sox, and I just wonder if this is a bounceback spot, or if Nolasco is in a tiny rut. I can't help but lean to the Braves, here, with Hudson's strong numbers.

Phillies (-130) @ Mets with a total of 8
Greg Dobbs is 7-for-13 with a HR and 3 RBI off Pelfrey before 2010;
Ryan Howard is 10-for-23 with a HR and 3 RBI off Pelfrey before 2010;
Chase Utley was 7-for-23 with 4 HR and 8 RBI off Pelfrey before 2010;
Luis Castillo was 5-for-11 off Hamels with 2 RBI;
David Wright is 8-for-23 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hamels.
Hamels didn't face the Mets when these teams squared off in Philadelphia earlier this year, but Pelfrey wasn't so lucky. He got creamed by the Phils in a game that the Mets eventually lost 10-0. Pelfrey is now 4-3 against Philadelphia with a 5.43 ERA, and as you can see, there are a handful of Phils that do hit him hard. Hamels is just 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA against the Mets, but has pitched very well in May, and you have to wonder if he's turning the corner. Still, Pelfrey is good at home, and the Mets are good at home, and because we have decent situational angles for both sides, this puppy is a pass.

Pirates @ Reds (-200) with a total of 8.5
This is another spot where I'm not too overly concerned with the player numbers, since Cueto has faced the Pirates twice already this year, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings in April, then throwing a complete game shutout a month later. He's 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA against the Pirates, so this is a very difficult game to truly find value in. Bad grammar alert, there. In any case, Morton is 1-8 with an 8.71 ERA, so there isn't going to be any good value in fading him, not with those numbers, and Cueto, who is pitching well, is going to cause the line to stay relatively inflated, too. Pass.

American League

Athletics (-120) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Minimal data to work with in this one. Gio is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Baltimore, but how much does that tell us? Not much. Bergesen has been pretty bad in just about every start other than 2 good ones in early May. If you're going to play a game where we don't know a ton about the starters, you have to like the upward trend that Gonzalez is on, and you have to dislike the fact that Bergesen has allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in his last 2 starts, both Baltimore losses. Not sure there's a ton of value laying road chalk with Gonzalez, but Oakland should win this one. Slight lean to A's.

White Sox @ Rays (-175) with a total of 8.5
Gordon Beckham is 3-for-3 off Niemann with an RBI;
A.J. Pierzynski is 5-for-8 off Niemann;
Ben Zobrist is 2-for-6 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Floyd.
If I had any confidence in Gavin Floyd, this would be a nice value. He's 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA against the Rays lifetime, and Niemann, despite his 4-0, 2.54 ERA this season, is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA against the White Sox. Floyd's numbers for 2010 make this line nice and hefty, and for a volume guy, I think you're looking at a Sox play, but for those of us trying to isolate value and winners on a daily basis, we can leave this one for those who play 9 games a night. If we backed Floyd, we'd be hoping for a lot of things to go right, and I'm just not that confident. Pass.

Royals @ Red Sox (-175) with a total of 10
David DeJesus is 3-for-7 with a HR off Matsuzaka;
Jose Guillen is 6-for-15 with 5 RBI off Daisuke;
Adrian Beltre is 5-for-11 with 2 RBI off Bannister;
J.D. Drew is 4-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Bannister;
Jacoby Ellsbury is 3-for-6 off Bannister;
Bill Hall is 3-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bannister;
Jeremy Hermida is 3-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bannister.
I almost included Dustin Pedroia in there, too, as Bannister is a miserable 0-4 with a 5.87 ERA against the BoSox in his career, and despite pitching well against the League most days, just can't solve Boston. Daisuke looks like he's starting to find a form, and the Royals are a nice opponent for him, as he's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA against Kansas City. Too expensive of a line to go with anything in particular.

Yankees (-120) @ Twins with a total of 10
Derek Jeter was 3-for-7 off Blackburn with a HR and 3 RBI before 2010;
Mark Teixeira, prior to this year, was a perfect 6-for-6 off Blackburn with a HR and 5 RBI;
Michael Cuddyer is 11-for-32 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Vazquez since '05;
Justin Morneau is 12-for-34 with 4 HR and 11 RBI off Vazquez since '05;
Delmon Young is 7-for-16 off Vazquez.
Blackburn's start was the one game the Twins finally took from the Yankees since, um, a long time ago. He's just 1-1 against NY lifetime with a 5.33 ERA, so he's not exactly a beacon of hope, but he has been the guy that, when he takes the hill, seems to mean a Twins win is en route. Vazquez has pitched much better in his last 2 starts, so all those inflated numbers aren't fully relevant. That being said, he's been downright mediocre against the Twinkies in his career, posting a 6-6 record and 5.11 ERA. If the Twins can get one more from New York, this low line would be the one. Lean to Twinkles.

Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins

Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-7 since April 19, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-7 since May 11, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $760 when playing against.

Dodgers at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-4 since September 18, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $555 when playing against.

Nationals at Giants – The Nationals are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $820. The Nationals are 0-5 since May 26, 2009 when Craig Stammen starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $505 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since July 06, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $700. The Giants are 7-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $820.

Braves at Marlins – The Marlins are 9-0 since May 20, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $900. The Marlins are 4-0 since June 18, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $560

Phillies at Mets – The Phillies are 0-7 since May 07, 2009 on the road after being shutout for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-7 since June 26, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a road favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 0-8 since August 28, 2009 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Athletics are 6-0 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $635. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 17, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since May 07, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts at home after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $650

White Sox at Rays – The White Sox are 0-7 since April 15, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-6 since July 04, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-6 since August 10, 2009 when Gavin Floyd starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $685 when playing against.

Royals at Red Sox - The Royals are 0-7 since July 26, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 22, 2009 at home when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $800. The Red Sox are 5-0 since June 13, 2009 when Daisuke Matsuzaka starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $500

Pirates at Reds – The Pirates are 6-0 since September 25, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1120. The Pirates are 0-5 since April 09, 2010 when Charlie Morton starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Reds are 6-0 since September 12, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after a quality start for a net profit of $700.

Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since April 30, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pick ‘em vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Rockies are 0-5 since September 23, 2009 at home when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Yankees at Twins – The Twins are 7-0 since May 21, 2009 when Nick Blackburn starts in May for a net profit of $775. The Yankees are 0-6 since May 09, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.

Tips and Trends

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Phillies (-130, O/U 8): Philadelphia is in the middle of an offensive rut, and it's cost them 3 consecutive losses and 5 of their past 7 games overall. The Phillies have scored 3 runs combined in their past 3 games heading into tonight's contest. Despite their struggles, oddsmakers are still making this team the listed favorite as tonight will mark their 11th straight game as the listed favorite. Philadelphia is still leading the National League East division at 26-18 overall. The Phillies actually have a better record on the road than at home, 13-8 overall. Philadelphia only trails San Diego for the overall best record in the National League. The Phillies will send lefty Cole Hamels to the mound tonight. Hamels is 5-2 this season with an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.40. The Phillies have won 7 of the 9 games started by Hamels this year.

Phillies are 21-11 against right handed starters this season.
The Under is 3-0 when playing on the road with a total between 8 and 8.5.

Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Mets: New York has played a tough schedule of late, as they've been the listed underdog in each of their past 6 games. New York is playing well though, as they have gone 4-2 in that stretch of games. The Mets have scored 5 runs or more in each of those 4 recent wins. Defensively, the Mets have only allowed 9 total runs in their past 4 contests. New York is trying to gain gound in the brutally hard National League East, where all 5 teams are .500 or better. New York will send Michael Pelfrey to the mound today, where he looks to continue his stellar season. Pelfrey is 6-1 this season, with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.32. The Mets have played great at home, as they are 17-9 on the season.

Mets are 4-1 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.
The Over is 13-8 in the month of May.

Key Injuries - CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3