NL Breakdown
By Josh Jacobs
The skinny, five-gamer on Thursday may not pack an A-bomb worth of continuous action, but that doesn’t mean we’ll just skip our wagering opportunities. The fact is three games in the AL and two more in the NL will give us plenty of time to dissect what means most on the bottom dollar.
Focusing on the first of a pair of National League contests, the L.A. Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will get the bats swinging and the balls slinging at 8:05 p.m. EDT. This will be Game 1 of a long, four-game set.
Setting the table, it’s ok to admit if you thought the Dodgers would have trouble acclimating themselves to the absence of power slugger, Manny Ramirez (.348 BA/20 RBIs/6 HRs). I did! Since being tossed from the league for 50 games, L.A. has continued to march on. The club is 11-7 without the star right fielder. But here’s where the supplement can be found.
The Dodgers are not only pulling in a league second best, 254 runs, but an on base percentage of .374 is unheard of when compared to this club's prior history. While the entire National League is hovering around a .258 BA, L.A. has surpassed that by posting up a figure of .291. And the offensive numbers go on and on.
As for Thursday expect the Dodgers to shove Randy Wolf (2-1, 3.02 ERA) out onto the field in hopes of earning his third win of the season. But although L.A. is a smoking 4-1 at home when Wolf takes the mound, the club’s road performance stands out at 2-3. The most surprising statistic has seen Wolf surrendering one or no runs at all in five of his 10 starts this season. His record during these performances; just 2-0!
With Wolf being a natural left-handed hurler, the Cubs will be hard pressed to manufacture anything from that side of the plate. Southpaw bats have made contact for a .093 BA with a .329 OPS. Career wise, Wolf has been able to hold fellow lefty bats to .226 BA. And for the month of May, the six-footer out of Pepperdine University has accumulated a 19-10 record followed by a 3.25 ERA (the best month of pitching in his career for that matter).
Chicago is emerging from its longest losing streak in the last three years. The Cubs managed to take a 6-1 ‘W’ away from Pittsburgh after the game was called at the end of the fifth inning due to inclement weather.
Four games out of first and 9-14 on the road, Chicago will entrust Randy Wells (0-1, 1.50) with the game ball. Wells has had the opportunity to start in three games this season as Rich Harden (back) departed to the 15-day DL on May 23. The problem hasn’t been Wells as two of those three appearances have seen the righty toss gems, giving up not one run on May 8 and 16 outings. Some of the blame can be applied to an offense giving their starter a skimp, 2.7 runs of support per start.
Despite books listing the Cubs as $1.22 underdogs in Wells first start in Milwaukee (May 8 in which they lost 3-2), most spots adjusted accordingly by placing Chi-Town as $1.06 and ‘chalky’ $1.60 favorites in his next two congruent trips to the hill. Despite the vote of confidence from the books, the Cubs are 1-2 when Wells is scheduled to take the field (that’s a -166 financial loss if making $100 wagers).
L.A. will bring with it a 5-1 record when Wolf toes the slab in Game 1 of a series and a 12-4 performance in Wolf’s last 16 starts with four days of rest. As it stands, Sportsbook.com has opened the Cubbies as $1.15 favorites.
Atlanta at Arizona – 9:40 p.m. EDT
Both of these teams have had their fare share of ups and downs despite the premature age of the season. And now both clubs are beginning to embrace success, at least for the time being. Opening the books as a $1.20 favorite, Arizona will attempt to take its eighth win in the last 11 games. Bodog.com has set the total at eight runs.
First off, there’s no denying the improvement on offense for the Diamondbacks. Hitting .236 on the season and crossing home plate for 195 runs (23rd worst), Arizona finds itself with 46 runs in just the last eight games (third best in the league), despite pluggin in a .253 BA. During this time frame, Mark Reynolds leads the team with 10 RBIs while Justin Upton and Chris Snyder have combined for 11 RBIs.
And it’s not difficult to see that offense has been the difference between wins and losses. When the D-Backs have scored six or more runs this season they’re 11-4 in the record books (3-1 in just the last four games when scoring six or more). This is not to mention the 14-1 ‘over’ record when scoring six or more runs at a clip as well.
A shaky Dan Haren (3-4, 2.57), who hasn’t been credited with a win since May 2, will attempt to give his Arizona ball club a quality start. In the last three starts, Haren has self imploded, allowing 11 totals runs. Five of those runs came in his last appearance alone in which he coughed up a career high, four long balls. Books have continued to support Haren. All nine of his starts have been set with the Diamondbacks as the favorite (ranging from a low of -118 to a high of -177).
Derek Lowe (6-2, 3.45) is on a role for Atlanta, sitting in the statistical column posting seven quality starts, five wins in his last six trips to the rubber and has surrendered two or fewer runs in four of his last six appearances. A 4-1 record on the road have been followed by a 3.58 ERA with batter swinging over the ball for a .217 BA. Oh, and Lowe will be getting the nod for the start on Thursday.
In the last 10, the Braves have seen a spike in offensive production, posting up 6.3 runs per game. This coming from a unit that has posted 4.3 runs per game on the year, 23rd worst in the Majors. But these numbers can be misinterpreted as Atlanta has been shutout inside the batter box in three of the last five defeats.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. Atlanta has had the upper hand in these matchups, taking a 5-2 edge in the last seven clashes against Arizona.
vegasinsider.com
AL Breakdown
By Judd Hall
Bettors don’t have a lot to look forward to on Thursday with just three games on the board in the American League. All three contests feature clubs that are just trying to find a spark to get them jumpstarted for the rest of the season or looking to keep themselves atop their respective divisions.
The plus side for us is there are some teams that are worth fading and maybe even a couple of totals we can exploit.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 12:05 p.m. EDT
The Rays are finding out just how tough it is to repeat after winning the AL pennant last season. Tampa Bay has dropped three straight games as they sit five games out of first place in AL East.
Even worse for Joe Maddon’s club is that they’ve not only lost second baseman Akinori Iwamura for the year with a torn ACL, but now shortstop Jason Bartlett is on the disabled list with a sprained left ankle.
Tampa Bay will be looking to turn the tide with right-hander Jeff Neimann (4-3, 4.53) getting the starting nod. The 26-year old hurler took his lumps at the beginning of the year by dropping his first two starts, but appears to have found his touch. Neimann is 4-1 with a 3.99 earned run average in his last seven outings. And the club has won six of his last seven starts, with the ‘over’ posting a similar record.
Both ‘over’ bettors and Neimann should keep a close eye on the Rays’ bullpen…Or as I like to call them, the comedy of errors. Tampa Bay has seen the ‘pen post an unconscionable 8.87 ERA over the last two games. That number could have been a lot worse if you could have counted the three unearned runs that crossed home plate in that 11-10 debacle on Memorial Day.
Tampa’s bats come alive when Neimann takes the mound, averaging 9.75 runs in his last four starts. I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised as the Rays lead the majors with 274 runs scored this season.
Despite that offensive output we saw on Monday, Progressive Field has been a den of low scores recently. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in Cleveland’s last eight home fixtures.
The Indians will send David Huff (0-1, 17.55 ERA) out to the hill to close out this four-game set. This game will be a tough one for Tribe fans to watch as Huff hasn’t last four innings in either of his starts this year. His first go round came at Tropicana Field on May 17, where he promptly was torched for seven earned runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings. Luckily for him is that Bartlett won’t be in the lineup this time around after going three-for-four in that contest.
Most sportsbooks have installed the Rays as $1.20 road faves (risk $120 to win $100) with the total coming in at 11.
Tampa Bay has done well in day games this season, going 8-7. Cleveland, on the other hand, is just 8-13 when playing under the sun.
Boston at Minnesota – 1:10 p.m. EDT
Baseball is a game of peaks and valleys. Currently, the Red Sox are taking a detour to the valley right now having dropped three of their last five matches. Despite the slump, Boston is still sitting one game ahead of the Yankees for the AL East lead.
Boston will be looking to Josh Beckett (4-2, 5.01 ERA) to get them back on track. He pitched a gem in his last outing on May 23 at home against the Mets. Beckett tossed eight full innings with five hits and one unearned run on that night as the Sox fell 3-2 as $2.00 home faves. It won’t be hard to side with him as the Red Sox are 3-1 in his last four starts, while he compiled a 2-0 mark with a 2.67 ERA.
Beckett has definitely benefitted from lively bats during the season as the Red Sox are scoring 7.92 runs every time he takes the mound. Boston ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with a team batting average of .278 this season. Now if they can just get David Ortiz back on the juice to improve his .197 average.
Minnesota will be sending out its latest pitching stud in Anthony Swarzak (1-0, 0.00 ERA). The rookie right-hander sprinkled five hits over seven shutout innings with a pair of strikeouts as the Twins won as $1.20 home favorites on May 23, 6-2.
If there is one thing that Swarzak can depend on is that the Twins’ bats are dialed in right now. Minnesota is averaging 8.14 runs scored over its last seven matches. They’ve also hit a home run in nine consecutive ballgames, the first time they’ve done this since July 2002.
Most betting shops have tabbed Boston as a $1.15 road “chalk” with total rolling out at nine. This is the fourth time in Minnesota’s last five games that the total was set at nine.
As great as Swarzak did for the Twins in his debut, it’s tough to back him plus-105 home pup. The reason being is that Minnesota is just 7-11 in the last three seasons against the Red Sox.
Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 p.m. EDT
The Tigers might be setting atop the AL Central, but they’re struggling right now as evidenced by three losses in their last four games.
Detroit can’t be upset with its starting pitching as they’ve thrown 25.1 innings over the last four games with a respectable ERA of 3.22.
What has been a thorn in the Motor City Kitty’s side is their hitting. Outside of a 13-run output on May 25, Detroit has scored five runs in its last three losses. One of those defeats did come against Kansas City’s Zach Greinke, who is pitching like a man possessed right now.
Armando Galarraga (3-4, 5.74 ERA) takes the hill for the Tigers on Thursday night. He’ll just be looking to get a positive mark for himself since he hasn’t won a start since April 26 at Kansas City. And Detroit is 1-4 in his last five outings.
Galarraga has allowed at least four runs in his last five starts. Normally you’d think that would make him a reasonable ‘over’ play, but you’d be wrong. The lack of offense has seen the ‘under’ go on a 3-1 run for Galarraga.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has opened the line for this game with the Orioles as $1.10 home favorites with a total of 10 ½.
That total might seem a bit high, but you have to take into consideration that Baltimore will most likely be sending out David Hernandez to toe the slab.
Don’t feel bad if you don’t know who he is since this will be Hernandez’s first start in the big leagues this season. He’s actually been one of the O’s better pitchers at AAA Norfolk this year with a 3-1 record to match a 2.91 ERA.
If we’re looking at recent outings, then Baltimore has the advantage. The Orioles have gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ went 5-2 last season between these clubs with the total setting up in the single-digits just once.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (33-15) at Chicago Cubs (23-22)
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Rockies in Colorado, the Dodgers take baseball’s best record to Wrigley Field for a four-game weekend series versus the Cubs, with veteran lefty Randy Wolf (2-1, 3.05 ERA) slated to oppose rookie Randy Wells (0-1, 1.50) in the opener.
After losing two of three at home to the Angels in interleague play last weekend, the Dodgers went to Coors Field and took their frustrations out on the lowly Rockies, sweeping the three-game set by the combined tally of 31-13, capped by Thursday afternoon’s 8-6 come-from-behind victory. Los Angeles has won 11 of its last 14 overall, including seven of eight on the road, averaging 8.3 runs during those eight on the highway.
Chicago has followed up an eight-game slide with back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh, topping the Pirates 6-1 in Tuesday’s rain-shortened contest at Wrigley Field then rolling to a 5-2 victory Wednesday. Chicago is on a 10-3 run at Wrigley Field and has scored 19 runs through three games of this homestand after tallying a total of five runs during last week’s six-game road trip to St. Louis and San Diego. In fact, the Cubs have scored at least five runs in eight consecutive home games and 11 of the last 13.
In addition to streaks of 11-3 overall and 7-1 as a visitor, the Dodgers are on upticks of 7-2 against right-handed starters, 8-3 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 on Thursday. Going back to last season, Joe Torre’s troops are on a 55-27 overall roll. Meanwhile, Chicago is in funks of 2-5 as a favorite and 2-6 on Thursday, but the Cubs are 17-8 in their last 25 against southpaw starters and they’ve won 68 of their last 101 games at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs won the first four meetings with Los Angeles last season, including a three-game sweep at Wrigley Field in which the Dodgers were held to a single run in every game. However, L.A. went 5-1 against Chicago from there, including a three-game sweep in the best-of-5 divisional playoffs in October that ended the Cubs’ season.
Wolf’s streak of five consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer ended in Saturday’s home outing against the Angels, when he gave up four runs on 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings. However, his offense bailed him out en route to a 5-4, walk-off victory. The Dodgers are 4-1 in Wolf’s last five starts and 6-1 in his last seven against N.L. Central clubs.
Wolf, who hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his 10 trips to the mound this season, is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA in five road starts, with L.A. going 2-3. However, he’s 3-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cubs, including 2-4 with a 4.38 ERA in eight outings at Wrigley Field.
Wells didn’t allow a single run in his first two starts, surrendering a combined nine hits with nine strikeouts and five walks in 11 innings. However, in Saturday’s outing in San Diego, he got dinged for three runs on five hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss, but he still walked only one and struck out seven. Chicago’s only victory so far with Wells pitching came at Wrigley Field on May 16, when the right-hander scattered four hits in six scoreless innings and got a no-decision in his team’s 5-4, walk-off win over Houston
The under is 7-1-2 in Wolf’s last 10 starts against the Cubs (4-1-1 at Wrigley) dating to 2000, while all three of Wells’ big-league starts have stayed low.
For Los Angeles, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 8-2-2 as an underdog and 17-7-2 against right-handed starters. Also, the over is 7-3-1 in Chicago’s last 11 versus lefty starters and 20-8-1 in its last 29 Thursday games, but otherwise the team is on “under” rolls of 7-2 overall and 6-1-1 in a series opener.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, May 28
Atlanta at Arizona (8:05 p.m. EDT). Derek Lowe(notes) (6-2) will try for his sixth win in his last seven starts as the Braves open up a four-game set against the Diamondbacks.
STARS
Wednesday
— Randy Johnson(notes), Giants, earned his 299th victory with six impressive innings, yielding three hits and one run in San Francisco’s 6-3 win over Atlanta.
— Nolan Reimold(notes), Orioles, hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning to cap a second surprising comeback by Baltimore, which beat Toronto 12-10 to extend the Blue Jays’ losing streak to nine games.
— Ben Francisco(notes), Indians, homered and drove in four runs and Cleveland got its first three-game winning streak of the season with a 12-7 win over Tampa Bay.
— Jay Bruce(notes), Reds, busted out of a 1-for-18 slump with two homers in Cincinnati’s 6-1 win over Houston.
— Adrian Gonzalez(notes), Padres, hit his major league-leading 18th home run and drove in three runs, and San Diego won for the 11th time in 12 games with a 8-5 victory over Arizona.
— A.J. Burnett(notes), Yankees, pitched six shutout innings to win for the first time in six weeks as New York gained a share of the AL East lead with a 9-2 win over Texas.
SHOCKING TIRADE
Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano(notes) threw a baseball into left field and slammed his glove against the dugout fence after he was ejected against the Pittsburgh Pirates. With Nyjer Morgan(notes) at third and the Cubs leading 2-1 in the seventh inning, Zambrano’s wild pitch just got away from catcher Geovany Soto(notes). Zambrano covered the plate for Soto’s throw, Morgan slid and umpire Mark Carlson ruled him safe. Zambrano jumped up and argued and was ejected after he appeared to nudge Carlson. Zambrano then pointed in Carlson’s face and gave him the ejection sign. But the Cubs’ emotional right-hander wasn’t finished. He fired a ball into left, tossed his glove and took a bat to a dugout cooler before heading to the clubhouse.
GOT YOUR NUMBER
Ben Francisco’s three-run homer in a five-run second inning was his third in three at-bats against Tampa Bay pitcher Andy Sonnanstine(notes) this season and fourth straight off the right-hander. Francisco is 8 for 9 with five homers and 12 RBIs against Sonnanstine.
TALE OF TWO BALLPARKS
After 23 games at each new ballpark, 87 home runs were hit at the new Yankee Stadium and 36 at the Mets’ Citi Field. The new Yankee Stadium is on a pace for 306 homers, nearly double the 160 at old Yankee Stadium last year and more than the record 303 home runs at Denver’s Coors Field in 1999.
WILD K
Daisuke Matsuzaka(notes) and the rest of Boston’s pitchers tied a modern-day record with six wild pitches. Matsuzaka tied a franchise record set 80 years ago with four, while relievers Manny Delcarmen(notes) and Justin Masterson(notes) also sent catcher George Kottaras(notes) scrambling. It was just the fifth time since 1900 that a team threw six wild pitches in a game.
SNAPPED
Oakland’s Bobby Crosby(notes) ended a career-long 72-game, 243 at-bat homerless streak with a drive in the second that tied it at 1, but the A’s lost 6-1 to Seattle.
SIDELINED
Cleveland Indians owner Larry Dolan was hospitalized after what team officials termed a mild heart attack. Indians vice president Bob DiBiasio says Dolan was taken to the hospital Wednesday and will remain there for observation. DiBiasio says the 78-year-old Dolan is in good spirits. Dolan was born and raised in Cleveland. He acquired all outstanding stock in the Indians from Richard Jacobs in a cash merger in February 2000. Dolan is also the team’s chief executive officer.
CYCLING
Gerry Rodriguez, of the Rome Braves, hit for the cycle in the team’s 4-3 win over the Greenville Drive. Rodriguez, who had four hits, capped his feat with a walk-off homer in the 10th inning. It was the third cycle in the minors this season.
SHOWING UP
Grieving Arizona pitcher Scott Schoeneweis(notes) visited Chase Field for the first time since the death last week of his wife, Gabrielle. Schoeneweis played catch and lifted weights before the Diamondbacks’ game against the San Diego Padres, manager A.J. Hinch said.
SPEAKING
“I overexaggerated after that play to throw the ball and to do the other things, you know. Hopefully MLB will review the play and we’ll see what happens.”—Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano after his tantrum, where he heaved his glove, threw a ball into left field and then whacked a dugout cooler with a bat.
Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves)
Lowe looks to move into a tie for the NL wins lead Thursday night when he starts opposite Dan Haren in the opener of a four-game series with the Diamondbacks.
Lowe (6-2, 3.45 ERA), who turns 36 on Monday, has won four of his five road starts. He now looks to match New York's Johan Santana and Bronson Arroyo of Cincinnati for the league lead in victories.
The All-Star right-hander won again Saturday, allowing two runs and five hits in 7 1-3 innings, while helping himself with two hits and driving in the go-ahead run in a 4-3 win over Toronto.
"It starts with starting pitching," Lowe said. "You've got to be able to keep your team in the game."
He's certainly done that this year, allowing two runs or less in seven of his 10 starts. Lowe is 5-1 with a 3.54 ERA in his last six outings.
He's 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his last six starts against the Diamondbacks (20-27), winning his last two while yielding six hits in 14 scoreless innings.
Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox)
Josh Beckett gave his catcher plenty of chances to hustle in his last outing. Fortunately for the Boston Red Sox, those consisted of jogs back to the dugout after successful innings.
Coming off an outstanding start, Beckett looks to help the Red Sox settle down after a wild performance on the mound as they conclude a four-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.
Beckett (4-2, 5.01 ERA) hasn't thrown a wild pitch all season and was in complete control the last time he took the mound. In his best start of the season, the right-hander surrendered an unearned run and five hits in eight innings of a 3-2 loss to the New York Mets on Saturday, but didn't factor in the decision.
He walked just one in that contest, but he has issued 24 bases on balls in 55 2-3 innings. In 2008, Beckett walked only 34 in 174 1-3 innings.
Beckett is 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three starts against the Twins. This will be his first career appearance at the Metrodome.
Slumping
Armando Galarraga (Detroit Tigers)
The Tigers open this series with Armando Galarraga (3-4, 5.74) on the mound. The right-hander is looking to bounce back from a 4-3 loss to Colorado on Saturday, when he gave up four runs in 5 1-3 innings.
"(Galarraga) certainly wasn't terrible, but his stuff isn't crisp right now,'' Detroit manager Jim Leyland said.
Galarraga is 0-4 with a 9.93 ERA in five May starts after opening the season 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA.
David Huff (Cleveland Indians)
The Rays could have a good chance at ending their losing streak in Cleveland as they face struggling rookie David Huff.
Huff (0-1, 17.55) has allowed 13 runs in 6 2-3 innings of his first two career starts. He gave up six and seven hits in three innings of a 7-6 win at Cincinnati on Saturday.
"It's disappointing," the left-hander told the Indians' official Web site. "I'm a competitor. I love to win. I need to win. So this is frustrating."
Debuting
David Hernandez (Baltimore Orioles)
With the Orioles placing Koji Uehara on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday with a strained left hamstring, David Hernandez looks to become the latest Baltimore pitcher to win his major league debut. Brad Bergesen defeated the Chicago White Sox on April 21 and Jason Berken yielded two runs over five innings in Tuesday's 7-2 victory over Toronto.
Hernandez went 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA in eight starts at Norfolk this season with 60 strikeouts in 43 1-3 innings. In his last start, he struck out 14 against Rochester on Friday.
"I think it's a boost for the whole ball club," Orioles pitching coach Rick Kranitz said prior to Wednesday's game. "They're excited about these young kids coming up and attacking hitters."