Thursday's Diamond Tips
By Judd Hall
Thursday’s in baseball are reserved for series finales as they get ready for their upcoming weekend battles. Tampa Bay is finishing up its three-game set in the Pacific Northwest with the Mariners. Before that game, we’ll look at a pair of contests in the Senior Circuit.
San Francisco (15-10, +412) at Florida (13-13, -166) – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The Giants are on the verge of overtaking San Diego for the lead in the National League West after winning seven of their last 10 contests. Matt Cain (1-1, 2.84) gets the start for the final game of this series. Cain has actually been spot on this season with his low earned run average and almost has a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s just not getting any help from his offense as San Francisco’s bats have scored two or fewer runs in two of his starts.
Florida might only be .500 in the standings, but they’re playing like a team trending down. The Marlins have dropped six of their last nine contests. And while the Fish have been swinging the bats well as of late (22 runs in last three games), their defense is lacking. Florida has been lit up for more than six runs in three of its last five tests and all three of them were losses. Ricky Nolasco (2-1, 4.01) has performed well so far in five starts. But he’s looking to avenge his last outing on April 30 where Nolasco gave up five earned runs in four innings to the Nationals.
San Francisco’s bats have been on target recently, scoring at least five runs in six of its last seven contests. But the Giants’ pitching has been going so well that the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in that time. Plus, the ‘under’ is 12-2 in their last 14 fixtures.
The road team has won two straight when these clubs have met up. And totals players shouldn’t worry too much about that high scoring series opener as the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 dating back to last year.
Chicago Cubs (13-13, -339) at Pittsburgh (10-15, +110) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Perhaps we spoke to soon about the Cubs’ bats waking up. After seeing Chicago post no fewer than seven runs in its last three games, they were downed 3-2 in the series opener to the Pirates on Tuesday night as $1.50 road favorites. Ryan Dempster was kept in for one inning too long in Game 1, giving up the game-winning home run to Ryan Church in the bottom of the seventh.
Lou Piniella will try not to make the same mistake on Thursday night with Randy Wells (3-0, 3.45) getting the start. Although it is unlikely Wells can’t be out there long enough. He’s been quite reliable this season and has struck out 14 batters without a walk in his last two starts. The only downside to Wells is he has allowed seven earned runs in those appearances.
Pittsburgh is feeling good about snapping a three-game slide with that win on Tuesday. The Pirates will be looking to close out the series with Brian Burres (1-1, 6.00) on the mound. If there is any room for optimism for Bucs it is in the fact that Burres actually lasted 5.1 innings in his last outing on April 29, a 2-0 win at Los Angeles in his second start of the season.
The Cubbies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games as road favorites against left-handers dating back to the end of June 2009. But those two setbacks came in their last three games in this role.
Tampa Bay (18-7, +838) at Seattle (11-15, -512) – 10:10 p.m. EDT
The Rays improved their MLB-best road record to 10-1 after a 5-2 victory over Seattle as $1.45 road faves. This was the first time that Tampa Bay actually scored at least five runs since its home series opener with the Royals (11-1) back on April 29. Before we can say they are on top of the world, the Rays’ offense isn’t back just yet. Tampa Bay is hitting .260 for the season. On Tuesday evening, they hit .210 as a team.
Jeff Neimann (1-0, 2.76) will take the ball for Tampa Bay for the last game of this series. He’s been a solid performer for Joe Maddon’s club this season, but he has two straight no decisions. Neimann’s only decision of the year was a winning one as he gave up two earned runs on five hits in seven innings as the Rays won 8-2 on April 19 in Boston.
Seattle will counter with Aussie hurler Ryan Rowland-Smith (0-1, 5.28) to finish off the series on a high note. The Mariners have won two of Rowland-Smith’s last three starts, but hasn’t picked up a decision in any of those games. His ERA is taking a hit though, giving up eight earned runs in his last two starts.
Tampa Bay has been posted as a $1.35 home favorite with a total of eight.
The M’s have gone 14-16 over the last two years as home pups to AL East foes. In the last eight games in this role, Seattle is 3-5. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in their last seven tilts under this situation.
The Rays have seen the ‘under’ hit in four straight contests. That’s a far cry from the 11-5 run the ‘over’ was making just before the low-scoring stretch hit.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (16-10) at Florida (13-14)
The Giants go for a three-game sweep in South Beach when they hand the ball to No. 2 starter Matt Cain (1-1, 2.84) while the Marlins counter with their own hard-throwing right-hander in Ricky Nolasco (2-1, 4.01) in the series finale at Sun Life Stadium.
San Francisco outlasted Florida in 12 innings in Tuesday’s opener, prevailing 9-6 after scoring in the top of the ninth to tie the game. Then on Wednesday, Barry Zito (one run in seven innings) tossed yet another gem and the Giants withstood a late rally and scored a 3-2 victory. San Francisco has followed up a four-game slide (all on the road) by winning eight of 11, and Bruce Bochy’s bunch is on additional surges of 5-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1 against right-handed starters. On the downside, the Giants have still lost four of six on the highway, four of five on Thursday and five in a row in the third game of a series.
Florida has dropped five of its last seven games on its current nine-game homestand that ends tonight, and it is just 3-7 in its last 10 overall, 1-6 in its last seven against the N.L. West and 3-8 in its last 11 against right-handed starters. On the positive end, the Marlins are on upticks of 5-2 as a home favorite, 6-2 in the third game of a series and 5-1 on Thursday.
The Giants have won eight of the last 11 in this rivalry, including four of the last five overall and four of the last five in Florida. Going back further, San Francisco is on a 10-4 roll when playing in Miami.
Cain has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five of his starts this year, but he didn’t have anything to show for it until Saturday when he dominated the Rockies in a 6-1 home victory. The veteran right-hander scattered a hit and three walks while whiffing eight in eight shutout innings. Cain has now held seven straight opponents to three earned runs or less, but San Francisco is just 3-4 during this stretch. In fact, going back to last year, the Giants have lost seven of Cain’s last 10 starts overall, but they’re in an impressive 14-2 in his last 16 starts against the N.L. East.
Cain has delivered two quality road outings this season, yielding just six runs (five earned) in 12 2/3 innings (3.55 ERA), but he got no-decisions in each contest with the Giants winning 10-4 in Houston and losing 3-2 in San Diego. Also, in five career starts against the Marlins, Cain is 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA, giving up three runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in all five games, with San Francisco going 4-1.
Nolasco lasted a season-low four innings Friday against the Nationals, getting rocked for five runs on eight hits (seven strikeouts) in a 7-1 home defeat. In two starts prior, he dominated the Phillies (5-1) and Rockies (4-1) on the road, surrendering a total of two runs in 17 innings. In fact, Nolasco has been much better on the road this year (2-0, 1.90 ERA in three starts, all Florida wins) than at home (0-1, 9.00 ERA in two games, both Florida losses).
The Marlins have won 10 of Nolasco’s last 13 starts against the N.L. West and 11 of his last 14 when he’s coming off five days of rest. However, they’ve lost five of his last six home starts, going 0-5 as a home chalk. He’s faced the Giants just twice, going 1-1 with a 1.13 ERA (two earned runs allowed in 16 innings).
San Francisco is riding a slew of “under” runs, including 13-2 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-1 against right-handed starters, 6-0 as an underdog and 9-4 on Thursday. And with Cain hurling, the “under” is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-3 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog and 13-6 against the N.L. East.
Conversely, Florida still sports “over” trends of 29-12 at home, 14-4 versus the N.L. West, 35-15-1 as a favorite, 18-6-2 against right-handed starters, 9-4 with Nolasco on the bump and 9-4 when Nolasco pitches against the N.L. West.
Finally, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 Giants-Marlins clashes overall and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-17) at Boston (14-14)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 11.57) makes his second start of the season as he tries to pitch the Red Sox to a four-game sweep of the struggling Angels, who will counter with lefty Scott Kazmir (2-1, 5.57) at Fenway Park.
After getting swept by the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend, Boston has returned home and taken three straight from the Angels by a combined score of 25-10, including Wednesday’s 3-1 victory. The Red Sox have won seven of their last nine home games, and they’re also on surges of 129-63 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. West and 4-0 versus southpaw starters, but they’re also just 2-5 in their last seven when playing the fourth game of a series.
Los Angeles has lost the first six games of a 10-game road trip, getting outscored 43-19, and it has dropped 10 of 14 overall dating to April 21. Additionally, the Angels are in slumps of 0-5 against right-handed starters and 0-5 as an underdog, but they’ve won 19 of their last 27 Thursday contests.
The Angels swept a best-of-5 divisional playoff series against Boston last year and they’re still 12-10 in the last 22 meetings. Also, the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 in this rivalry – with the Red Sox going 6-2 in the last eight at Fenway – following an 8-3 run by the visitor.
Kazmir is coming off his strongest performance of the season – and his first quality start in seven outings dating to last season – as he held the Tigers to two runs (one earned) in six innings Saturday, but the Angels offense didn’t contribute much and L.A. fell 3-2 on the road. Kazmir has gone 10 consecutive starts without lasting more than six innings, and in two road outings this year (Detroit and the Yankees), he’s 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA.
Kazmir’s last start against the Red Sox came in the 2009 American League Championship Series when the lefty was with the Rays. In that contest, he gave up five runs on five hits and three walks in six innings, but Tampa pulled out a 7-6 road victory. Prior to that, Kazmir made 23 regular-season starts against the Red Sox with the Rays, going 8-7 with a 3.59 ERA (6-4, 3.05 ERA in 13 games at Fenway Park).
Matsuzaka spent the first month of the season on the disabled list, returning with mixed results on Saturday in Baltimore. He gave up just one run through the first four innings, then fell apart in a six-run fifth inning. The right-hander finished giving up seven runs (six earned) on seven this and three walks in 4 2/3 innings. Last season, the Japanese star was limited to just 12 starts because of injury, going 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA (2-2, 5.60 ERA in six home contests).
With Dice-K on the hill, Boston is on runs of 36-15 overall, 18-8 at home 10-4 against the A.L. West, 30-12 when favored, 5-2 on Thursday and 3-1 in four career starts (two playoff) against the Angels. In those four contests versus Los Angeles, Matsuzaka yielded a total of 12 runs in 20 2/3 innings (5.23 ERA).
L.A. is on “under” runs of 24-7 on the road, 7-1 as a road underdog, 16-5 on the road against right-handed starters and 5-1 when Kazmir throws on the highway. Meanwhile, the over has hit in 13 of Boston’s last 17 games against lefty starters, but with Matsuzaka pitching, the under is on stretches of 7-3-1 overall and 12-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Tips and Trends
San Francisco Giants at Florida Marlins
Giants: San Francisco is playing quite well, as they are currently 16-10 on the season. The NL West continues to surprise people with how strong they are, as the Giants are trying to keep pace with San Diego. San Francisco has won their past 4 series thanks to a dominant pitching staff and timely hitting. The Giants have scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their past 8 games. P Matt Cain will take the mound for the Giants, and will look for a bit more luck. Cain has yet to give up more than 3 earned runs in any of his starts, as he has an ERA of 2.84 this season. Despite his overall dominant numbers, he is only 1-1 on the season. The Giants are 8-3 in the last 11 games against the Marlins. The Giants are 6-2 in Cains last 8 starts as a road underdog entering tonight.
Giants are 5-1 last 6 vs. National League East.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - SS Edgar Renteria (groin) is questionable.
2B Freddy Sanchez (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Marlins (-120, O/U 7.5): Florida is mired in mediocrity this season, as they continue to play merely .500 ball this season. Offensively, the Marlins are averaging 5 runs per game, while batting .267 as a team. At home, the Marlins are averaging nearly 6 runs per game and batting .278 as a team. Florida will send P Ricky Nolasco to the mound in hopes of a solid performance. Nolasco is 2-1 this season with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nolasco has been either really good or really bad this year. He is coming off a poor performance against the Nationals, where he only lasted 4 innings. Nolasco has had 16 strikeouts in his past 2 starts combined. The Marlins are 5-1 in Nolascos last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are also 7-3 in Nolascos last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Marlins are 20-6 last 26 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 29-12 last 40 home games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)