Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
It's inaccurate to call Leake a hard-luck loser since he's 5-0 on the season, but the Reds' righty has been a hard-luck non-winner over the past three weeks.
Leake has allowed a total of two earned runs over his last four starts but is only 1-0 during that span, including seven shutout innings against the Astros on May 30 in which the Reds suffered a 2-0 loss.
Leake snapped his three-game no-decision streak last week with a 5-1 win over the Nationals in which he scattered seven hits over as many innings and went 2-for-3 at the plate, assuring himself the victory by scoring the winning run.
"The young man helped himself on the field pitching, hitting and base running. He's a ball player," Reds manager Dusty Baker said of the 22-year-old rookie. "The thing about him is he pitches to the situation. If he needs a double play, he throws his best double-play pitch. If he needs a strikeout, he'll go for the strikeout. That's tough to teach. Most guys don't learn that until far into their careers."
Leake has a microscopic 0.44 ERA over his last three starts, lowering his season tally to 2.22. He faces the Giants for the first time today.
Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels
Santana has been smoking hot over the past month of the season, winning five consecutive starts and allowing only seven runs over his past 35 innings.
Santana had a complete game, 10-strikeout performance in a May 20 win over the Blue Jays in which he allowed three earned runs, so he has only given up a total of only four in his other four starts. He's also getting plenty of run support, winning his last outing 11-2.
"My slider wasn't great, but it was good enough," Santana said aftr improving to 6-3 on the season. "It makes it nice when we score runs like that. We're getting better."
Santana has a 2.05 ERA over his last three starts, moving his season average to 3.29.
Slumping
Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays
Davis has finally come back to reality after getting off to a 3-1 start. He has lost four of his last six starts and hasn't gotten past the fourth inning in two of his last three outings.
His last start was the shortest for the Rays all season without an injury being involved. Davis entered the game holding opponents to a league-low .174 batting average with runners on base but got bombed by a seven-run fourth inning to blow an early 4-0 lead.
"It's really frustrating when the offense gives you an early lead like that," said Davis. "Most of the time you go out there and shut them down. Today wasn't that day."
Davis has now allowed 16 runs in his last 13.1 innings to double his ERA to 5.03.
Thursday's MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday baseball card is loaded with afternoon matchups all day, including veteran starting pitchers facing off against younger counterparts. The traditional baseball fans take a turn to the dark side on Friday when interleague play takes over for the next two weeks. Before we jump to Friday, let's start with Thursday's matinee action on the South Side of Chicago with the Tigers looking to close out the White Sox.
Tigers at White Sox - 2:10 PM EST
Chicago wraps up a nine-game homestand prior to its weekend showdown across town at Wrigley Field as the Sox try to close on a winning note. Ozzie Guillen's club has dropped five of the first seven games after squandering a 2-0 lead in Tuesday's 7-2 setback to the Tigers.
John Danks (4-5, 3.60 ERA) tries to bounce back after a pair of dreadful starts against the Indians and Rays. The Sox are 1-5 in Danks' last six starts, including three consecutive losses at home. In the three defeats to Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Toronto, Danks burned bettors as the lefty was listed as a $1.50 favorite or more each time. One of the issues in those losses was a lack of run support with the Sox averaging one run in each of those three games. The Tigers beat Danks twice last season, halting a four-game winning streak against Detroit dating back to 2007.
The Tigers counter with Max Scherzer (2-5, 6.66 ERA), who was knocked around by the Royals in his last start, allowing five earned runs in five innings of work. Scherzer has given up at least five earned runs in five of his last six outings, with the lone solid start coming against Oakland in a 14-strikeout performance. The righty, who was acquired from Arizona in the offseason, has seen the 'over' hit in five of his previous seven outings.
Detroit owns a 2-6 mark the last eight games as a road underdog, while winning consecutive away games just twice this season. Chicago hasn't been impressive as a home favorite this season, going 4-10 the previous 14 games as 'chalk' at U.S. Cellular Field.
Astros at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST
Houston and Colorado conclude a four-game set at Coors Field, as the Astros send out their ace Roy Oswalt to the mound. The Rockies play 10 of the next 13 games at home, looking to pick up some ground inside the tough NL West.
Oswalt (3-8, 3.22 ERA) looks to snap a two-game skid following home losses to the Nationals and Cubs. The Astros' veteran lasted less than three innings before being ejected against Washington, followed by a seven-inning outing versus Chicago in which Oswalt allowed six runs. His best starts have come on the road this season, compiling an away ERA of 0.82 in three starts on the highway (2-1). Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies shut out Oswalt on May 20 by a 4-0 count in Houston, the first loss for Oswalt in the last four starts against Colorado.
The Rockies trot out Jhoulys Chacin (3-4, 3.77 ERA) to the hill, going for his first win in three starts. Chacin has been on the wrong end of consecutive one-run losses to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, despite striking out 15 batters in the two starts. The righty began the season by tossing scoreless gems against Los Angeles and San Francisco on the road, but Colorado is 1-4 in Chacin's last five outings.
The Astros have finished 'under' the total in six of the last eight road contests, while the Rockies have cashed the 'under' in nine of their previous 11 games overall.
Angels at Athletics - 3:35 PM EST
Two teams fighting it out atop the AL West finish up a four-game series in the Bay Area as the Halos send out Oakland slayer Ervin Santana. The Angels have won 11 of 14, including seven of their past nine games on the highway.
Santana (6-3, 3.29 ERA) has dominated the A's in his career, with the Angels winning eight of his last ten starts in this series. The righty delivered his 10th straight quality start against Oakland in a 12-3 home victory on May 15, scattering seven hits and three earned runs in six innings. Santana is 5-0 his last five starts overall, including road victories at Seattle, Kansas City, and Chicago.
One of the more surprising back-end starters in baseball takes the mound for Oakland with Trevor Cahill (4-2, 3.21 ERA) making his ninth start. After back-to-back 'overs' in his first two outings, the 'under' is 6-1 in Cahill's last seven starts. Despite picking up a no-decision against Minnesota his last time out, Cahill has turned in five straight quality outings.
The Angels are 9-3 the last 12 meetings dating back to last October, including a 4-1 mark at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The A's have hit the 'under' in 12 of their last 18 home contests, as Oakland hits the road for nine games in interleague play starting Friday in San Francisco.
Braves at Diamondbacks - 3:40 PM EST
Atlanta and Arizona have definitely helped out 'over' players this season by cashing the 'over' in all five meetings this season. The three highest prices the Braves have laid on the road this season have all come when Tommy Hanson starts, including the $1.60 he is listed at in the series finale.
Following two disastrous starts against the Reds and D-Backs, Hanson (6-3, 3.71 ERA) has turned in three consecutive quality outings, while allowing just five earned runs in wins over the Phillies, Marlins, and Dodgers. The last time Hanson faced Arizona on May 15, the D-Backs were feast or famine by striking out 10 times, but still picked up five runs and seven hits in an 11-1 thrashing of the Braves.
Dontrelle Willis (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his second start in an Arizona uniform, after getting traded from Detroit on June 1. The D-Train tossed six scoreless innings in a 4-3 victory over Colorado in his D-Backs debut last Saturday, only the second win for Willis in 10 starts overall this season. The southpaw hasn't faced the Braves since 2007 when he was a member of the Marlins, but Florida went 6-1 in Willis' last seven starts against Atlanta.
The Braves have taken care of their business as a road favorite recently, winning seven of their last eight as away 'chalk.' Atlanta has hit the 'over' in seven of its previous eight on the road, while Arizona has gone 'over' the total in nine of the last 12 at home.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 6/10
By Dan Bebe
National League
Giants @ Reds (-180) with a total of 8.5
There isn't really any value here, for 2 key reasons. First, Wellemeyer is just awful on the road, but people seem to forget that fact when he's coming off a couple decent home starts. Here, he's coming off a bad road start, so everyone remembers how much he stinks. Second, Leake is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. You're not usually going to get ton of betting value on a guy with those types of season numbers, especially at home. I was hoping we'd see Reds as a -150 favorite, because then, at least, you're closer to a potential play, but at -180, that's just too much. Leans: None
Padres @ Mets Doubleheader;
The pitching match-ups aren't 100% set in stone, but I did have a slight lean to Johan Santana on the previous day's card. Still, with lineups possibly out of whack, and bullpen arms only going in 1 of the 2 games, I'm just not a fan of taking risks with these doubleheaders. Leans: None
Cubs (-125) @ Brewers with a total of 9
Kosuke Fukudome was 8-for-17 with a HR and 3 RBI off Bush coming into this season;
Alfonso Soriano is 8-for-26 with a HR and 4 RBI off Bush since '05;
Jim Edmonds was 4-for-9 with a HR off Dempster since '05;
Rickie Weeks was 5-for-16 off Dempster before 2010.
Dempster has faced the Brew Crew twice in 2010, giving up 5 runs on April 12 at home, then going 7 innings of 1-run ball a couple weeks later. In his career, Dempser is 13-3 with a 2.67 ERA against Milwaukee, and Bush is 2-9 with a 5.43 ERA against Chicago. Honestly, this line is one of those numbers that's either the gift of the millenium, or outrageously fishy. I can't find a truly good reason to back the Brewers (and their unbelievably bad bullpen), but I'm not completely sold that there isn't something wrong with Dempster the public doesn't know about. Leans: Cubs
Astros @ Rockies (-140) with a total of 8.5
Chris Iannetta was 3-for-6 with a HR off Oswalt before 2010.
This will be Oswalt's 2nd start against the Rockies this year, and he lost his first effort against them, getting outdueled by Ubaldo Jimenez (welcome to the club) back in Houston. Oswalt is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA lifetime against the Rockies, so there's some promise, there. Oswalt hasn't pitched at Coors Field since 2008, so that's certainly a point of concern, though he is a perfect 3-0 there with an ERA just a shade over 2. That should, if nothing else, give him some confidence. Another minor issue is that Oswalt is coming off 2 poor starts, and I have to wonder if the pressure of the trade demands is causing him to get too careful. In any case, Chacin has not been brilliant since his first couple starts, and teams are starting to figure him out, a bit. He hasn't been terrible, but he's not going deep in games, and he's pretty consistently allowing around 3-4 runs per start. Leans: Astros
Braves (-175) @ D'backs with a total of 10
David Ross is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Willis.
This one is probably not going to make any kind of card. Hanson is just 1-1 with a 4.85 lifetime ERA against the D'backs, in fairly limited action, and Dontrelle handled himself alright in his first National League start, but it's just a matter of time before the better offenses start to hit him. We saw the Dodgers do a number on the D-Train in Interleague play, and a hot-hitting club like Atlanta might get a few licks in, as well.
Leans: None
Marlins @ Phillies with a total of N/A.
We'll reapproach this one when the starters are absolutely set. I believe both teams are bumping back their aces (Johnson and Halladay), and if the podcast discussion of that game isn't sufficient, well, I don't know what else to say. Leans: Marlins, Over
Pirates @ Nationals (-175) with a total of 8.5
I have no idea why MLB.com is still listing Maholm/Martin as the match-up, but I'll try to get the player numbers updated when I can. I do, however, have some recent work by these cats to work off, and it's not pretty for Duke. He's allowed 13 runs in his last 2 starts, though we know from the past that Duke tends to have 2 horrific starts in a row, and often bounces back with a brilliant one. This is a tough spot to blindly hope Duke pulls out of this tailspin, though. As much as Livan continues to give up more and more baserunners, he continues to find ways to strand them. The roof is going to come in at some point, but against the Pirates seems like a stretch. Leans: None
American League
Tigers @ White Sox (-140) with a total of 9
Carlos Guillen is 5-for-11 with 3 RBI off Danks;
Gerald Laird is 3-for-4 off Danks;
Magglio Ordonez is a blistering 14-for-23 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Danks since '05.
Scherzer came back to earth after an inspired first start back with the Bigs (14 K against Oakland, then 5 innings, 5 runs against the Royals), but he's never faced the White Sox. I wonder if the weak-hitting Sox aren't a good candidate for Scherzer to bounce back. His 6.66 ERA is scaring some religious folks right now, and honestly, it scares me, too. Scherzer is not adjusting well to the AL, so it's tough to back this kid right now. Danks is even tougher to back in this one, thanks to the steep price, and the fact that his last 3 starts have been pretty pedestrian. He's 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA against the Tigers, and as you can see, if Ordonez is good and healthy, he can really do some damage against Danks. Leans: Tigers
Angels @ Athletics (-110) with a total of 8
Daric Barton was 5-for-15 with an RBI off Santana before 2010;
Ryan Sweeney is 7-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Santana before this year.
There are very few pitchers out there with more impressive lifetime numbers against one team than Ervin Santana has against the A's. He's 11-2 with a 1.50 career ERA against Oakland, and that takes us through quite a few iterations of Billy Beane's underpaid, sometimes-overachieving small-market mayhem in Oakland. The Angels have won Santana's last 5 starts in a row, and that actually started with a 6-inning, 2-earned performance against the A's. Trevor Cahill has been solid since coming back to the Bigs this year, but something that does jump out and concern me is that Cahill has now made 8 starts this year, and his walk numbers in those 8 starts are 1, 3, 2, 0, 1, 3, 4 and 4. Yeah, 10 walks in his first 6 starts, and 8 in his most recent 2. Cahill has such intense movement on his pitches, that sometimes teams can learn to wait him out, get some free passes, and, with a well-timed two-bagger, score a couple runs. Leans: Angels
Red Sox (-210) @ Indians with a total of 8.5
Kevin Youkilis is a perfect 2-for-2 with a HR and 3 RBI off Talbot;
Russell Branyan is 3-for-7 off Lester;
Travis Hafner is 3-for-10 off Lester with 3 RBI.
Lester is 3-0 with a 3.89 ERA against Cleveland. Talbot has been consistent enough where there's no real purpose to throw money at Boston, but Cleveland, as a whole, has been bad enough where there's no real purpose in throwing money at a crummy team. I do think this game could be lower scoring that folks expect, since everyone just assumes the Red Sox are going to crush balls left and right, but I really don't feel confident enough in the game to put this one up near the top of any lists. I just happen to like both pitchers come into this one rolling. Leans: Under
Yankees (-250) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Julio Lugo is 3-for-9 off Burnett with a HR;
Nick Markakis was batting .314 off Burnett with 3 RBI before this year;
Luke Scott was 6-for-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Burnett prior to 2010;
Miguel Tejada was 5-for-15 off Burnett before 2010.
Considering that Burnett is 11-2 against the Orioles, I'm not sure that backing a rookie making his debut against the Yankees is the world's greatest proposition. In addition, Burnett has clubbed the Orioles twice already this year, going 15.1 innings and allowing just a single unearned run (it came on his own throwing error in the game I attended at Yankee Stadium, as I recall). Yes, his career ERA against Baltimore is 4.41, but that radioactive tag on the O's is still glowing bright greenish yellowish red. Leans: None
Blue Jays @ Rays (-130) with a total of 9
Alex Gonzalez is 2-for-2 off Davis with 3 RBI;
Carlos Pena is 2-for-5 with 2 HR off Cecil, and 4 RBI.
As pitching rolls go, Brett Cecil is red hot, and Wade Davis is red not. Nice, I knew I could work something super-lame into today's blog. But seriously, Cecil is trending way, way up. He's given up 5 earned runs over his last 4 starts (spanning 29.2 innings), and the Jays have won each of those games over the A's, Angels, O's and Yanks. I realize that you could argue 2 of those 4 offenses are downright bad, but holding the Yanks to just 1 run in 8 beautiful innings is certainly a confidence booster. Wade Davis, on the other hand, is coming off a start in Texas where he surrendered 8 runs in 3.1 innings. His season ERA is over 5 for the first time since his first start, and only 2 of his most recent 6 starts were quality. There's a reason this line is ultra-cheap. Leans: Blue Jays
Mariners @ Rangers (-200) with a total of 10
Ichiro is 6-for-13 off Hunter with 1 RBI;
Vlad Guerrero is 5-for-10 off Smith with a HR.
Interestingly, Ryan Rowland-Smith is 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA against the Rangers, and as you can see from the player notes, only new-Ranger Vlad Guerrero has hit him hard in the past. Michael Young is 0-for-5, Josh Hamilton is 0-for-5 and Ian Kinsler is just 1-for-4. Something to consider before blowing 200 on Tommy Hunter, who pitched his butt off in his 2010 debut, but there's no chance this youngster is good enough to be a 2-to-1 favorite, even if his opponent is sporting a 6.65 ERA. Leans: None
Royals @ Twins (-200) with a total of 9
Mitch Maier was 4-for-12 off Baker before this season.
I'll be quite up-front. This price is way too high to play a side. Baker is 8-3 lifetime against the Royals, including going 7 innings and allowing 2 runs in a 10-3 spanking of KC back in mid-April, and Bruce Chen is 0-2 with a 5.75 ERA against Minnesota in his career. To Chen's credit, he's been decent since moving into the starting rotation this year, and his 2-0 record and 2.95 ERA shows that he has been reliable enough, but this Twins team can hit, and they're very tough at home, on top of that. I don't much care for the total, either. Leans: None
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Angels at Athletics – The Angels are 9-0 since June 04, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $935. The Angels are 6-0 since June 05, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts on the road after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $710.
Cubs at Brewers – The Cubs are 0-8 since April 29, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1070 when playing against.. The Brewers are 0-7 since September 08, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-7 since April 14, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Braves at Diamondbacks – The Braves are 6-0 since April 20, 2010 when Tommy Hanson starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $605. The Braves are 0-4 since August 26, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $745 when playing against.
Red Sox at Indians – The League is 11-0 since August 18, 2009 as a away 200+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1100. The Red Sox are 8-0 since May 07, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Indians are 0-8 since April 17, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Padres at Mets – The Padres are 5-0 since September 08, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $675.
Pirates at Nationals – The Pirates are 0-9 since May 06, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Yankees at Orioles – The Yankees are 9-0 since August 30, 2009 as a 200+ favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Yankees are 8-0 since October 07, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 5-0 since May 17, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts after more walks than strike outs for a net profit of $500 The Orioles are 0-12 since August 09, 2009 as a 170+ dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
Marlins at Phillies – The Marlins are 6-0 since May 27, 2009 as a road 140+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1035. The Marlins are 4-0 since April 29, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $520. The Phillies are 0-6 since September 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $1186 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-6 since September 12, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1051 when playing against.
Mariners at Rangers – The Mariners are 0-10 since August 02, 2009 as a road dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Rangers are 6-0 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $655.
Blue Jays at Rays – The Blue Jays are 0-12 since April 30, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Rays are 9-0 since May 07, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $970
Giants at Reds – The Giants are 0-8 since July 21, 2009 as a road dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Giants are 0-5 since April 16, 2010 when Todd Wellemeyer starts on the road for a net profit of $500 when playing against.
Astros at Rockies – The Astros are 5-0 since June 01, 2009 when Roy Oswalt starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $530. The Astros are 4-0 since May 11, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $785.
Royals at Twins – The Royals are 8-0 since August 06, 2009 after playing as a dog and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two for a net profit of $1030. The Twins are 5-0 since May 24, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a favorite after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $500.
Tigers at White Sox – The Tigers are 0-8 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since April 29, 2009 at home after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $840. The White Sox are 6-0 since April 16, 2009 when John Danks starts as a favorite after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $600.