Thursday's Afternoon Action
By Josh Jacobs
Did you see Colorado’s recent six-game winning streak coming? How about the Cardinals recent implosion? Or what about Seattle’s 20-6 ‘under’ record in the last 26 (including five straight ‘under’ plays in the last six games)?
Whether you caught one or all of those trends or missed the boat entirely, don’t worry because Thursday is chock full of action to capitalize on. Focusing on the afternoon hours, eight games will challenge our wallets. Are you prepared to take this card to the bank?
Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Having taken three in a row as $2.07, $1.36 and $1.13 favorites (in descending order) against the Pirates (26-32, -162), the Braves (29-28, -300) will shift focus to improving on their 7-3 record in the last 10 home games. Atlanta is packing the second best BA at .296 during the daytime and a middle of the pack, 103 runs scored has actually stimulated a 4-1 ‘over’ record when the total has been placed at eight runs during the daytime. Even when a 10-run total has been set, the ‘over’ is cashing at a 4-2 clip (again, at home during the day).
Atlanta is planning to start Javier Vazquez (4-5, 3.54). The Braves are 0-3 in his last three starts, losing backers a total of minus-4.34 units on the money line. But giving up 2.3 runs per game isn’t all that poor. A 2-4 ‘under’ record in his last six starts has been a result.
Pittsburgh is just 9-12 during the day. A 4.23 ERA and .271 BAA followed by the hitting department making contact for a .262 BA while scoring 93 runs helps explain daytime problems in the standings. Lefty, Paul Maholm (4-2, 3.94) is 10-12 lifetime with a 5.01 ERA in 37 starts during day games. But a .298 BAA and a .806 on base percentage allowed are numbers to watch out for (all daytime figures).
The Braves are tagging southpaws for a .276 BA and 91 RBIs is fifth best in the Majors.
Pittsburgh is 9-28 in its last 37 meetings in Atlanta.
Colorado at Milwaukee – 2:05 p.m. EDT
We begin the preview by stating Milwaukee’s (33-25, +868) league leading, 2.84 ERA during day games. Ok, with the obvious number in the open, the Brewers have been less then impressive. A 7-10 record in the last 17 coupled with being listed as the underdog six times in the last eight games has placed a “buyers beware” tag on this franchise. At least starting pitcher, Yovani Gallardo (6-2, 2.84 ERA) could end up making or braking Thursday’s bets. Gallardo is an outstanding 2-0 in four starts during the day. And how can you beat a 0.33 ERA and a.162 BAA during these day time shifts?
The Rockies (26-32, -485) are six games deep in a winning streak thanks to sweeping St. Louis in a four-game series (now six straight victories versus the Cards in the last six meetings). Colorado will entrust Aaron Cook (4-3, 4.50) for the 27th win of the season. His 2-3 record while surrendering 6.4 runs per game (including runs surrendered by relief pitchers) adds to the volatility in backing the team but it’s not like the Rockies haven’t been faced with adversity before.
The ‘over’ is 9-2-1 in Cook’s last 12 starts and 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings. The Rockies have reign dominance in this matchup, tendering an 8-3 performance in the last 11mettings. However, the Brewers have countered at home in head-to-head meetings by going 10-4.
Minnesota at Oakland – 3:35 p.m. EDT
The first problem surrounding the Twins (29-31, -303), a 7-22 record playing on natural grass. That means that Minnesota’s 21-12 home record and 8-19 away performance are stark contrasts to how this team plays at home versus on the road. Starting slinger Nick Blackburn is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA on the road this season. Even more inspiring is his personal 3-0 record in his last four starts and the Twins’ three wins and one loss during the same stretch. The ‘under’ is also 3-0 in Blackburn’s last three starts and 6-2-1 in the last nine. Not hard to picture when Blackburn is responsible for allowing just 1.9 earned runs per game in the same nine starts.
Beginning with three straight wins as $1.22, $1.25 and $1.56 visiting underdogs against the White Sox, Oakland (26-31, -267) was able to string out four more victories for a total of seven in a row. A loss against Minnesota on Tuesday (10-5) ended the run. Now the Twinkies will be looking to Trevor Cahill (3-5, 4.21) to get them back on track. The problem here is that Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA during day games. Getting 4.5 runs of support per start overall equates to a run difference of plus-1.7 on the season. So although the offense hasn’t been blistering in his starts, Cahill is getting almost a two run cushion to work with.
Take into account that without home field advantage in its favor, Minnesota and its opponents have excelled at hitting the ‘over’, currently standing at 18-7-2 this year. But coming off a road win, the Twins are 5-0 on the ‘under’ in the following road game. So pay attention to Wednesday’s results which will be posted ASAP.
Extra Innings
-- San Francisco (30-27, +281) looks to stretch out a 5-2 record in the last seven when it encounters Arizona (25-34, -1076). The Giants have opened the books as $1.30 visiting underdogs. A run total of nine has been set in the early hours on the board.
-- Arizona is 7-3 on the ‘over’ during the day and at home when the total has been posted at nine runs. The club is averaging a total of 10 ½-runs during day games at home (runs produced combined with runs alloweed). What this says is the pitching staff has logged in a 4.25 ERA during the day this season.
-- Max Scherzer (2-4, 4.10) takes the ball on Thursday. His 2-2 record in the last seven starts is far from effective although the Diamondbacks are 4-2 in his last six starts. And a 1-2 record followed by a 7.46 ERA at home could be partial importance for the fade alert to be signaled.
-- The talk of the town could be the Giants’ 5-2 stranglehold on ‘Zona this season, but Thursday’s starter must be addressed. Jonathan Sanchez (2-5, 5.19) giving up 3.6 runs per game isn’t the strongest of stats and a 1.65 WHIP despite both righties and lefties hitting for a .248 BA could justify the +130 price on San Fran (bet $100 to make $130). But the D-backs are struggling hardcore against southpaws with a .230 BA and a .323 OBP.
-- The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games. But don’t be so surprised. Arizona has 12-20 overall home record can be partially attributed to owning the worst home cooking ERA at 5.49. Another damaging stat for the fade play include the D-backs going 1-10 when coming off a home win in their next home stand.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (34-23) at N.Y. Mets (31-26)
The Phillies finally conclude a 10-game, three-city road trip tonight when they send veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.27 ERA) to the Citi Field mound, while the Mets are scheduled to counter with Tim Redding (0-2, 6.97) in the rubber match of a three-game series.
Philadelphia rallied from a 4-1 deficit last night and got a 10th-inning home run from Chase Utley – his second of the game – to pull out a 5-4 victory while moving to 6-3 on its current road swing. The Phillies 14-5 in their last 19 on the highway and they continue to sport baseball’s best road record at 22-9. Furthermore, the defending World Series champions are on lengthy hot streaks of 58-29 overall, 36-16 as a visitor, 24-9 on the road against right-handed starters, 39-17 against winning teams and 9-3 versus N.L. East rivals.
The Mets are just 4-6 in their last 10 contests, but they’re on positive upticks of 8-3 in divisional games, 6-2 at home, 11-4 on Thursday and 22-9 at home against southpaw starters.
Dating to last season, the Mets are still on an 11-6 overall run in this rivalry (4-2 this season), winning six of the last nine clashes in New York (3-1 at Citi Field this year).
Moyer seems to have turned his season around, delivering three quality starts in his last four trips to the hill, including Friday in Los Angeles when he limited the Dodgers to two runs on four hits and no walks in seven innings. However, Phillies closer Brad Lidge blew Moyer’s win and Philadelphia lost 4-3, dropping to 1-5 in Moyer’s last six starts overall and 2-5 in his last seven road outings. On the bright side, the Phillies are 31-11 when Moyer faces N.L. East competition.
Moyer is 2-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five road starts and 1-5 with a 7.61 ERA in seven night games. He’s also 7-5 with a 3.62 ERA in 19 career starts against the Mets, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in two contests this year (12 runs allowed in eight total innings), with the Phillies winning 6-5 at home and losing 7-5 at Citi Field.
Redding is coming off his best start of the season, as he gave up just a run in six innings at Washington on Friday, failing to get a decision as the Mets prevailed 3-1 in 10 innings. In his two previous outings, Redding surrendered 13 runs (all earned) in 8 2/3 innings, losing to Boston and Florida by respective scores of 12-5 and 7-3. The veteran right-hander has faced the Phillies 11 times in his career, going 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA.
The under is 4-0 in Moyer’s last four starts overall, 13-6 in his last 19 on the highway, 8-3 in his last 11 on Thursday and 14-6-1 in his last 21 against winning teams. Also, six of Moyer’s last seven starts in New York have stayed low. Conversely, going back to last year when he pitched for Washington, Redding has topped the total in seven of his last 10 starts.
Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 12-5-1 overall, 7-4-1 on the road, 15-5-2 on Thursday and 5-0 in the third game of a series. Likewise, the Mets are on “under” runs of 13-7-2 overall, 4-2 versus the N.L. East and 5-2 versus lefty starters. However, the over is 24-7-1 in New York’s last 32 Thursday tilts and 5-1-1 in the last six Mets-Phillies clashes in the Big Apple.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (34-25) at Boston (35-24)
CC Sabathia (5-3, 3.56) makes his first start at Fenway Park in a Yankees uniform, and he’ll try to get New York its first victory this season against the Red Sox, who will counter with Brad Penny (5-2, 5.85) in the finale of a three-game series.
One night after blanking the Yankees 7-0, the Red Sox held on for a 6-5 victory Tuesday to take over sole possession of first place in the A.L. East while improving to 7-0 against their hated rivals this season. The BoSox are on upticks of 85-37 at home, 18-6 against the A.L. East and 40-14 on Thursday.
Despite losing the last two games, New York is still on runs of 19-8 overall, 7-4 on the highway, 7-3 against divisional foes, 11-6 versus right-handed starters and 4-1 on Thursday.
Not only are the Red Sox are a perfect 7-0 against the Bronx Bombers this season, but they’ve won eight straight meetings dating to last year, going 6-0 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have scored a total of 51 runs in seven contests against Yankee pitching this season.
Sabathia’s streak of five consecutive quality starts (2.08 ERA) ended with Saturday’s 9-7 home loss to Tampa Bay, in which he gave up five runs (four earned) on five hits (two home runs) in eight innings. The portly lefty had pitched at least seven innings in six straight starts, with New York winning four of those contests. Sabathia has been solid on the highway this season, going 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA, and he’s been dominant under the lights (5-1, 1.93 ERA at night as opposed to 0-2, 5.49 ERA in day games).
During his time with the Indians, Sabathia made seven regular-season starts against the Red Sox, going 2-4 with a 3.91 ERA. However, the last time he saw Boston was in the 2007 American League Championship Series, and he went 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA as the Indians got drubbed 10-3 at Fenway and 7-1 at home in a decisive Game 7.
Penny suffered his first Fenway Park setback Saturday against Texas, falling 5-1 after giving up all five runs in 7 2/3 innings. Boston is 3-5 in the veteran right-hander’s last eight trips to the mound, with Penny posting a 5.20 ERA during this stretch. He’s now 3-1 in four home outings despite a beefy 6.51 ERA, and he’s 3-1 with a 7.12 ERA in six night starts.
Penny’s experience against the Yankees has been limited to three starts when he was with the Marlins – one interleague game in 2000 and two World Series starts in 2003 – and he gave up a total of six earned runs in 17 1/3 innings (3.12 ERA), with New York losing all three contests.
The Yankees are on “under” stretches of 11-5-2 overall, 5-1-2 on the road, 9-3-2 against winning clubs and 4-1 in Sabathia’s last five road starts. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 20-6-2 overall, 7-1-1 at home (4-0-1 last four) and 6-2-1 versus divisional opponents. Lastly, the under is now 5-1-1 in the last seven Yanks-Sox at Fenway and 5-2-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Edwin Jackson (Detroit Tigers)
Justin Verlander may get the kudos in Motown but Jackson (6-3, 2.16 ERA) is the arm anchoring Detroit’s run to the top of the American League Central.
The right-hander leads the Tigers in most pitching statistical categories and is building on those numbers in his recent starts. Jackson is 5-1 in his last six outings, posting a 1.40 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk count of 34-to-9.
In his most recent appearance, Jackson pitched a nine-inning gem against the Los Angeles Angels this weekend, allowing just one earned run on four hits. It marked the 11th time he’s gone at least six innings in his 12 2009 starts and he’s kept his pitch counts from swelling, throwing just 109 pitches in Saturday’s win.
"Pretty much (manager Jim Leyland) wants our starters to be strong and learn to finish out games," Jackson told the Detroit Free Press. "You go out there with the intention every game to finish the game."
Nick Blackburn (Minnesota Twins)
Nick Blackburn is a ray of light in the gloomy Minnesota Twins rotation. The young righty has gone 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA this season and is quickly becoming the team’s ace after fellow arms Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano struggled to start the season.
Blackburn has allowed just four runs in his past four outings, posting a 1.33 ERA during that span. In his most recent effort, Blackburn went seven innings and allowed only one run to the Seattle Mariners. However, poor offense spoiled that showing and dropped his record to 3-2 on the road.
The sinker-baller has 12 quality starts on the year but has suffered from a lack of run support. During his current streak, the Twins scored an average of 7.25 runs each time Blackburn takes the hill. But those number are inflated by the 20-run explosion Minnesota put on the Chicago White Sox on May 21. Without that game, the Twins have mustered just an average of three runs in his last three outings.
Slumping
Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals)
One bad start shouldn’t count as an actual slump, especially when you’re having the year Zack Greinke is having. The Royals budding ace was knocked around by the Toronto Blue Jays in his most recent appearance, allowing five runs on seven hits and surrendering two home runs – his first since September 2 of last year.
“It’s one thing to get hit,” Greinke told the Kansas City Star, “but everything was a line drive. There was no weak contact. It was good hitting and bad pitching coming together. So it was a bad game all around.”
However, any baseball bettor riding Greinke over the past month will tell you the righty is in an awful slump. Greinke has won just two of his last four starts and has cost bettors over four units in that span.
The biggest culprit is the Royals lineup, which has provided an average of under three runs in those losses. Kansas City is currently in a free fall, losing nine of its past 10 games heading into Wednesday.
Todd Wellemeyer (St. Louis Cardinals)
When it rains it pours for Todd Wellemeyer. The Cardinals right-hander has been vulnerable to disastrous innings – much like the three and four-run innings he surrendered to the Colorado Rockies in his most recent start.
The game before that, Wellemeyer coughed up three runs in fourth to the Cincinnati Reds. He has gone just 2-4 in his past six outings and has pitched at least six innings only twice in that span, posting an ERA just under 6.00.
In most of his six losses this season, the damage has been done in bunches. Wellemeyer has an ERA 5.32 on the year but throws an ERA over 10.00 with runners on base and doubles that number with runners in scoring position.
"If knew the answer, I'd know how to fix it," Wellemeyer told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "It's up to me to remain confident. I would say if I'm 2-0 on a guy, I just have to be able to go out there and know I'm going to hit my next spot. I can't go out there and nip at the strike zone."
A lack of run support hasn’t helped Wellemeyer’s cause either. St. Louis is scoring just over four runs per game this season and has put an average of 2.5 runs on the board the past six times the struggling starter has taken the hill.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, June 11
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay (7:08 p.m. EDT). Young Rays star David Price (1-0, 2.45 ERA) takes the mound against Ervin Santana and the Angels.
STARS
Wednesday
-Chase Utley, Phillies, led off the 11th inning with his second homer of the game to help Philadelphia beat the New York Mets 5-4.
-Justin Verlander, Tigers, struck out nine and allowed six hits in his second complete game this year, leading Detroit to a 2-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox.
-Mark Teixeira, Yankees, had four hits, including his AL-leading 19th homer, in New York's 6-5 loss to Boston.
-Rick Ankiel, Cardinals, finished a single shy of the cycle as St. Louis snapped a five-game losing streak with a 13-4 win over Florida.
-Gil Meche, Royals, tied a career high with 11 strikeouts over seven innings, helping Kansas City win 9-0 at Cleveland.
-Geoff Blum, Astros, singled in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth to give Houston a 2-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
-Delmon Young, Twins, hit a tiebreaking RBI single in the ninth inning of Minnesota's 6-3 win against Oakland.
-Jose Lopez, Mariners, homered twice and finished with three hits in Seattle's 4-1 victory at Baltimore.
-Kevin Correia, Padres, retired his final 15 batters during a sterling six-inning performance on three days' rest, and San Diego beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1.
-Bengie Molina, Giants, homered and drove in three runs as San Francisco topped Arizona 6-4.
WHAT RIVALRY?
Mike Lowell homered and the Boston Red Sox beat New York 6-5 on Wednesday night to improve to 7-0 against the Yankees this year. The Red Sox have beaten the Yankees eight straight times dating to the last game of last season - their longest winning streak against their longtime rivals since 1912.
STAY HOME
There will be no more visits by Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers' clubhouse during media access periods for the remainder of his 50-game suspension. Dodgers spokesman Josh Rawitch said the club received a "friendly reminder'' on Wednesday from Pat Courtney, the No. 2 spokesman in the commissioner's office, that Ramirez wasn't allowed in the clubhouse when it's open to reporters. Ramirez's suspension for violating baseball's drug rules runs through July 2, barring rainouts.
NEMESIS NO MORE
Carlos Pena and Willy Aybar homered, leading the Tampa Bay Rays to a 9-5 victory over John Lackey and the Los Angeles Angels. Lackey allowed nine runs and 11 hits in five innings. He was 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay before Wednesday night.
WINNING AWAY FROM HOME
The Colorado Rockies have won seven straight games - all on the road - for their longest winning streak since taking 11 in a row in September 2007. That run helped propel the Rockies to the playoffs and eventually the World Series where they were swept by Boston. This time, Colorado can do something that team never did - match its longest road winning streak in its 17-year history with a win in Thursday's series finale against Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo.
SETTING THE TABLE
Jimmy Rollins went 0 for 5 with an RBI for the Phillies in his return to the leadoff spot after two games batting sixth. After slumping for much of the season, Rollins was dropped in the batting order the previous two games. He totaled five hits in those contests, including a 3-for-4 performance Tuesday that featured a home run and two RBIs.
POWER SHOW
The Kansas City Royals hit three homers in a 9-0 victory over the Cleveland Indians. Alberto Callaspo had a career-high four hits, including his first career grand slam. The Royals also got two-run homers from Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo to win for only the fourth time in their last 19 games.
SOAKING WET
Washington had less than 100 fans remaining in the seats after a 2 hour, 10 minute rain delay in the bottom of the ninth. The game resumed and the Nationals scored two runs to tie the game before falling to the Reds 4-2 in 12 innings.
SPEAKING
"It's almost PlayStation stuff, watching him throw the ball exactly where he wants to - with movement, velocity, the works.'' - White Sox starter John Danks on Justin Verlander, who struck out nine while throwing a six-hitter in the Detroit Tigers' 2-1 victory at Chicago.