Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
After a strong beginning of the season 4-1, Heron went through a 1-3 stretch before finally heating up in his last two starts. His last outing was a six-hit, two-run gem against the Cardinals.
The big thing working against him Thursday in Boston is he won't be able to help his own cause. Under AL rules if the pitcher is in the starting lineup as a hitter, the designated hitter cannot be used when he comes out of the game. Too bad; Haren leads the league among pitchers with 17 hits, six doubles and a .425 batting average.
"I'd much rather have a position player up there rather than myself. My job is on the mound, obviously," Haren told Yahoo Sports. "The hits have come pretty easy. Pitching hasn't exactly been that way. It's been kind of reversed."
At least until lately. Luckily for the right-hander, the Red Sox have been punishing lefties.
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees
Pettitte is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA over his last four starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs during that span. The no-decision may have been his best outing of the bunch.
Pettitte struck out 10 and allowed just five hits in 7 2/3 innings but came out the hard-luck 3-2 loser to the Blue Jays. He bounced back by beating his former team, the Astros, for his 200th career win.
"It’s like facing an older brother in Wiffle Ball," ex-teammate Lance Berkman said after the game. "You’re torn because you want to do well, but you don’t want to hurt him. But then he puts his glove over his face and it’s like facing Darth Vader."
The force should be with Pettitte against the Phillies, whom he went 2-0 against last season. The Phils are batting just .220 against lefties in their last 10.
Slumping
Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs
After starting the season 3-0, Wells hasn't won a game since April 30 and appears to be getting farther, not closer, to getting one.
Wells was shelled in his last outing against the crosstown rival White Sox to the tune of 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings. He gave up four straight hits in the first inning, sparking rumors that he had been out celebrating with the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks the night before the day game.
One problem with that theory; Wells has been getting rocked for more than a month and not even hockey players can party that long. Wells is 0-5 with a 6.47 ERA over his last eight starts.
"I'm not exactly beaming with confidence right now," Wells told the Chicago Tribune after his last outing. "I got roughed up a little, the ERA ballooned up, I'm not winning games. My approach is the same - I go out and be aggressive and throw strikes and hopefully good things happen. I think I need to tinker with some stuff, I think I need to make some adjustments and get back to basics and find the edge that will get me back on track."
Midseason is not the best time to be tinkering, especially in a hitters' park like Wrigley.
James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays
Shields got off to a 5-1 start to the season and has gotten progressively worse over the past month, dropping four straight and getting clobbered by the Marlins in his last outing.
The Rays ace looked like anything but in that game, giving up nine hits and 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings and calling it "probably the worst outing of my career."
"I need to do something," Shields added. "It's unacceptable the way I'm pitching right now. I'm letting my team down and not giving them a chance to win."
The added pressure probably won't help against the Braves.
Dallas Braden, Oakland A's
It didn't take long for Braden to go from perfection to perfunctory.
Since his perfect game against the Rays on May 9, Braden is 0-4 in his last six starts. In his last outing against the Angels he was rocked for 11 hits and five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings - the fifth straight start that lasted six innings or less.
"I want the ball. I want to stay in," Braden said. "Anytime I'm in that situation, I'm confident I can get outs. I always want to go deep."
Unfortunately for him, it's opposing batters that have been going deep for the past month. He's given up five homers during his current winless streak, more than he allowed all season.
Braden had an MRI earlier this week that revealed tendinitis in his left elbow but he is still expected to start. The big question is how long he will last.
Tips and Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox
Diamondbacks: Arizona has been playing .500 ball over their past 10 games, not bad considering their brutal schedule of late. The Diamondbacks have been the listed underdog in 8 of their last 11 games overall. 7 appears to be Arizona's lucky number, as they've scored exactly that many runs in 3 of their last 6 games. The Diamondbacks are -13.06 and -4.80 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. Arizona has the 2nd fewest road wins in the majors this season at 9-24 overall. P Dan Haren will take the ball today, as he looks to build on his fine play of late. Haren is 7-4 this year, with an ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.31. The Diamondbacks are 1-11 in their last 12 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Diamondbacks are 15-36 in their last 51 road games against a right-handed starter. Arizona is 6-1 in Haren's last 7 interleague starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Haren's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Diamondbacks are 7-20 last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Red Sox (-150, O/U 9.5): Boston continues to win games, as they are now 39-28 for the season. Boston has put themselves right back in the American League East standings, as they only trail the Yankees and the Rays by 3 games. Boston is +1.93 and -5.10 units both SU and on the RL this season. Offensively, the Red Sox have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Right hander John Lackey will take the mound today, as he is 7-3 with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.57 this year. The Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 games against the National League West. Boston is 41-11 in their last 52 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 15-7 in their last 22 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Boston is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 23-5 last 28 interleague home games against a team with a losing record.
Over is 10-4 last 14 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Key Injuries - RF Jeremy Hermida (ribs) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
MLB RoundUp For 6/17
By Dan Bebe
National League
Dodgers (-115) @ Reds with a total of 9
Andre Ethier is 7-for-19 off Arroyo since '05;
Matt Kemp is 5-for-11 off Arroyo;
James Loney is 8-for-17 off Arroyo.
I think the real key in this game is that John Ely is in the midst of a regression to the mean. He's not a top of the rotation kind of arm, and while he pitched that way for a month, his last 2 starts have been decidedly marginal, and fading a guy who is just starting to come back to Earth is a great technique for baseball wagering. On the other side, Arroyo continues to be a workhorse, that, for lack of a better team, is a tad streaky, and given that his current streak involves the "anti-streak" of one-on, one-off starts, he's due for a good one. In addition, the top of the Dodgers order (Furcal and Martin) are a combined 4-for-37 off Arroyo. Leans: Reds
Interleague Play
Nationals @ Tigers (-181) with a total of 9
Not a ton of data to work with here, though it appears Bonderman allowed 3 runs in 5 innings to the Nats way back when. The Tigers are a ruthless bunch at home during Interleague play, so rather than advocate backing the underdog here, behind Luis Atilano (who really isn't too impressive, and the scouting report is being made written him as we speak), I'd probably say that the Tigers are the smarter side. I know, it pains me to admit that as much as the next guy, but Bonderman has been extremely consistent this year, aside from a couple hiccups. I'm not getting down on this one, but this is what the "level-1" leans are for. Leans: Tigers
Rockies (-122) @ Twins with a total 7
Miguel Olivo is 4-for-13 off Liriano;
Delmon Young is a perfect 3-for-3 off Jimenez.
This is about the cheapest price we'll see on Ubaldo for the foreseeable future, I would imagine. So, it's out job to figure out if that's because the Twins are just that good, or if it's because Jimenez is expected to continue to regress towards, ya know, merely one of the best seasons in the last 25 years instead of, say, the last 100. I happen to believe this line is low for a reason. Francisco Liriano has actually pitched better than Jimenez over each of their last 2 starts, and maybe the most impressive part is the "K". Liriano has fanned 21 in his last 2 outings, walking just 2 and allowing only 2 runs over 15 innings. Jimenez had to deal with rain his last start, but picked up the win, going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs to the power-happy Blue Jays. I realize the Rockies have won 12 of Jimenez's 13 starts, but this one might fall into the bad column, and it might only take 1 run to do it. Leans: Twins
Athletics @ Cubs (-115) with a total of N/A
Marlon Byrd is 6-for-16 off Braden.
This is a battle of 2 starters that have been slipping. Braden has, arguably, been subpar in 5 of 6 starts since the perfect game, and he's coming off 2 starts where he allowed 4 runs in each. Of course, the Cubbies aren't terribly intimidating offensively, so he might get it turned around, but I'm not in the market to back a guy that's been in steady decline. Randy Wells is in virtually the same spot. Wells got off to a nice start, but has allowed 5 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and he hasn't cleared 5.1 innings in any of those outings, either. If the wind's blowing out, beware. Leans: Over
White Sox @ Pirates with a total of N/A
Ohlendorf hasn't seen much of the White Sox, but he's coming off a poor effort in Detroit, and it's always just a matter of time with a guy that has poor stuff like Ross. He can meander his way through some the weaker lineups, and get lucky from time to time against better teams, but in the end, he's a better guy to fade than back, and I lean to the squarer side in this one, if but barely, and only because Buerhle finally had himself a decent start, and we know he can be quite streaky.. Leans: White Sox
Mets @ Indians (-113) with a total of 9
No real data, here, so just looking at some recent starts, we'll try to formulate some thoughts. R.A. Dickey has made 6 starts for the Mets, and New York has won 5 of them. Some of that is good luck, and some is good pitching, so that knuckler's been working just fine. Jake Westbrook has been a solid veteran arm for the Indians, but does generally put some runners on base, and if the Mets stay aggressive, they could potentially nab this one. This game profiles as more of a coin-flip to me, though it's tough to argue with the success of Dickey. The weather has been extremely humid and unpleasant in the Midwest, and I have to believe that favors Dickey, but man if those Indians aren't hitting the heck out of the ball these days. Leans: None
Phillies @ Yankees (-210) with a total of 10
Shane Victorino is 3-for-6 off Pettite;
Placido Polanco is 3-for-7 off Pettitte since '05.
This is a bit of a mismatch, with Pettitte having one of his best seasons in, well, decades, and Kendrick coming off a rough outing against the Marlins. To Kendrick's credit, he pitched relatively well in the few starts before that one, but the bottom line is that he's just not that good, and a team as strong as the Phils wouldn't be using this guy every 5 days if they had their health. The Yankees are absolute monsters at home, too, but the price here is just out of my range. Leans: None
Rangers @ Marlins with a total of N/A
We don't have a line on this one, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Nolasco is going to be a relatively large favorite, which means this one is probably coming off the board right quick. Nolasco is not pitching well, but Nippert has been a clunker when he's been forced into action as a starter, as well. I'd maybe give a look at the Over when this line comes out, but when we're given less time to really dig into a line, we want to be extra cautious. No real leans on the sides, but we can explore this one further in the morning. Leans: Over
Rays @ Braves (-128) with a total of 8.5
It's funny: we keep expecting Hudson to let up, and he just keeps dominating. I would go so far as to say that Tim Hudson has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball this year. He has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year, and he only hit that mark twice. He's gone without giving up a run just once, as well, so he's rarely perfect, but he's just as rarely not "very good." So, when will Hudson slip up? I think it's too dicey to try to pick the one start where Hudson isn't outstanding, so I certainly wouldn't play the Rays. On the other side, I worry we're not getting a very good price on Hudson, since Shields has been struggling, and you'd think with the Rays in town, you wouldn't have to pay this price to back Atlanta. Does Shields break out of his funk, or do the Braves keep racking up the hits like his other recent opponents? Leans: Braves
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox (-150) with a total of 9.5
Adrian Beltre is 15-for-35 off Haren since '05;
Victor Martinez is 7-for-13 off Haren since '05.
This game is an intriguing one, if mostly because Haren seems to be starting to find his groove. 2 of his last 3 starts have been very good, and he's certainly accustomed to pitching in the AL. Obviously, Fenway is a scary place to throw for anyone, but Haren doesn't seem like the type of be intimidated. He's 2-3 with a 2.65 ERA lifetime against the BoSox, but again, much of that occurred a few years back. Lackey is another guy that's trending in the right direction, which means laying the chalk look a little less insane, but not nearly sane enough to warrant action. I'd think the better look would be the total - two pitchers trending up, we're getting a pretty chunky number because of poor starts to the year for both guys, but this one shouldn't clear 9 runs. Leans: Under
Astros @ Royals with a total of N/A
I'm not sure most of the online sites have updated the Royals starter, so we're sort of short data, here. Fact of the matter is that KC can hit, but Oswalt shut them down last night, and I wonder if Myers can't do the same. This one is going to require more digging in the morning. Leans: None
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Braves – The Rays are 5-0 since June 20, 2009 when James Shields starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $560.
Athletics at Cubs – The Athletics are 0-7 since May 16, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $710 when playing against..
Rangers at Marlins – The Marlins are 5-0 since June 12, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $610.
White Sox at Pirates – The White Sox are 0-8 since August 09, 2009 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1105 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since July 12, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since August 05, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox – The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since September 13, 2009 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $995 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since August 19, 2009 when Dan Haren starts as a road dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Red Sox are 7-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.
Dodgers at Reds – The Dodgers are 7-0 since October 08, 2009 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $750.
Astros at Royals – The Astros are 5-0 since May 11, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $905.
Nationals at Tigers – The Nationals are 5-0 since October 01, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $940. The Tigers are 8-0 since September 02, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Tigers are 8-0 since June 07, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800.
Rockies at Twins – The Rockies are 9-0 since August 23, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $905. The Rockies are 7-0 since April 17, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Twins are 0-7 since August 20, 2009 as a dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Phillies at Yankees – The Yankees are 9-0 since August 30, 2009 as a home 200+ favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Yankees are 7-0 since September 16, 2009 at home when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700. The Yankees are 6-0 since September 27, 2009 when Andy Pettitte starts at home after his team won the last time he started vs. this opponent for a net profit of $600.
Getaway day MLB pitcher trends
By Steve Makinen
Thursday wraps up one set of many interleague series’ before the teams move on to another this weekend. Seven of the 11 games on the Thursday betting board are set for evening start times. Let’s take a look at some of the best StatFox Power Trends available for those games regarding the starting pitchers. Get a full look at all of today’s key betting information on the GAME MATCHUPS page.
CHI WHITE SOX (BUEHRLE) at PITTSBURGH (OHLENDORF)
The White Sox have taken the first two games of the series in Pittsburgh, extending the Prates losing streak to 10 games. The hosts will likely need to hold Chicago to a low run total to win, since Pittsburgh has only scored 29 runs during the skid. Fortunately, there’s a significant UNDER trend of Ross Ohlendorf, the Pirates starter:
# OHLENDORF is 14-2 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was OHLENDORF 2.7, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
NY METS (DICKEY) at CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK)
The Mets have continued their strong surge in the N.L. East by taking the first two games in Cleveland. New York is 17-5 in its last 22 games and comes into Thursday’s contest on a 6-game winning streak. By the looks of this trend on Indians skipper Manny Acta and R.A. Dickey’s 2.78 ERA to date for the Mets, the streak should continue.
# ACTA is 13-62 (-43.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better in all games he has managed since 1997. The average score was ACTA 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)
PHILADELPHIA (KENDRICK) at NY YANKEES (PETTITTE)
The Yankees and Phillies have split a pair of spirited games between the last two champions of Major League Baseball. Thursday’s series finale matches Kyle Kendrick for Philadelphia versus Andy Pettitte for host New York. Kendrick has proven a trendy OVER pitcher, while Pettitte has produced UNDER’s regularly. This is the highest rated trend though:
# KENDRICK is 22-6 OVER (+15.7 Units) after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was KENDRICK 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)
TEXAS (NIPPERT) at FLORIDA (NOLASCO)
The Rangers have gotten hotter than a summer day in Texas of late, winning seven of their last eight games to put a 2-game cushion between themselves and the Angels in the A.L. West. On Thursday, the Rangers will look for a 3-game sweep of the Marlins in Florida. The pitching matchup pits Dustin Nippert versus Ricky Nolasco.
# NOLASCO has been hit hard in his last five starts, with a WHIP of 1.96 and a record of 1-4 (Team’s Record). The average score was NOLASCO 4.0, OPPONENTS 6.6 – (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at ATLANTA (HUDSON)
One of the other highlight series’ this week besides Phillies-Yankees has been that between the Rays and Braves. It has lived up to billing too, with the teams splitting the first two games. It could be edge to Atlanta on Thursday, since James Shields, the Tampa starter has been rocked hard for 23 runs in 15-2/3 innings in his last three starts, while Braves’ hurler Tim Hudson can fall back on this powerful angle:
# HUDSON is 64-27 (+29.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HUDSON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA (HAREN) at BOSTON (LACKEY)
The Diamondbacks may be buried at the bottom of the N.L. West with little chance to emerge, and are just 9-24 on the road this season, but according to this strong angles regarding Thursday’s starter Dan Haren, they at least have a decent shot of avoiding a sweep at Boston.
# HAREN is 25-9 (+15.5 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HAREN 6.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
HOUSTON (MYERS) at KANSAS CITY (LEREW)
The Astros and Royals wrap up a 3-game set in Kansas City with Brett Myers taking the hill for Houston and Anthony Lerew, called up from Triple-A Omaha, toeing the rubber for the hosts. The Royals are -115 favorites, but…
# MYERS is 13-6 (+9.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MYERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)