Thursday Afternoon Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Half a dozen games around the diamond are scheduled throughout the afternoon hours on Thursday. You know the drill as we prepare to open our wallets up at the window. Narrowing our focus in this preview, let’s root out the underdogs. Are their some bonafide winners that books may be overlooking? What about road teams’ chances of exiting hostile territory and returning a profit?
St. Louis at N.Y. Mets – 1:10 p.m. EDT
We’ve got a great pitchers duel scheduled to take place in Citi Field. Using just the past few games as a measurement, St. Louis’ (40-32, +293) Chris Carpenter (5-1, 1.53 ERA) can be considered the “wild card”. The right-handed veteran is still yet to allow more then three runs in a given outing. Even more impressive has been the ability to lock down the opposition by not allowing more then six hits in any one of his nine starts on the year. In other words, Carpenter is as close to perfection as any slinger has been this season.
But besides winning games, gamblers have enjoyed the ‘under’ at 6-2-1 in Carpenter’s last nine trips to the hill. And while a 62-50-4 record on the ‘under’ dating back to the 2004 season isn’t overwhelming evidence for another ‘under’ play to cash in, the rate at which Carpenter has been throwing up impressive numbers isn’t something to put on the backburner. It’s just difficult to forget about the past two seasons of debilitating injuries that have struck fear in the Cardinals organization after signing the curveball specialist to a five-year, $65 million contract through 2011 (that deal was drawn up and executed during the end of 2006.
At the plate the Mets’ (35-34, -208) have been relatively consistent despite a 4-6 disappointment in the last 10. The disparity comes in the form of hitting .269 from both sides of the plate (.310 versus lefties this year) but only scoring 82 runs in June. Although not convincing enough in terms of offensive output, the ‘under’ is 4-2 in the last six.
As far as Johan Santana (8-5, 3.22) representing his club from the hill, a 1-3 performance in the last four starts doesn’t explain everything. The lefty is coming off a 3-1 loss against Tampa Bay, but giving up three hits and two runs thanks in large part to a Carlos Pena long ball was the icing on that cake. Remember this was the same Santana that pitched his way through six straight ‘under’ plays in the first six games of the season. Why? How’s holding the opposition to one run per game as an answer sound? Santana has thrown four shutouts in ’09 with the last one coming in a May 11 win over Atlanta (8-3).
The ‘over’ is 8-2-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Despite two straight defeats, the Cubs (34-33, -697) have been scoring five runs per game in the last six. This is important for the fact that Chicago is an unconscious, 26-4 when it has totaled five runs or more. Just pay attention to Wednesday night’s results as the Cubs are just 7-1 off a win in Game 2 heading into Game 3.
Southpaw starter Ted Lilly (7-4, 3.04) will matchup well against the Tigers (39-31, -419) given the fact that his team is 10-4 when he takes the mound. And despite Detroit’s 10th ranked, 342 runs produced, 86 runs scored versus southpaws ranks the club at a low, 17th in the Majors. As for Lilly, a 2-0 record in his last five starts has come on the heels of giving up 1.6 runs per game. The disparity, while not insurmountable, has been the opposition hitting .213 in Wrigley but .241 when Lilly is on the road.
Speaking of pitchers, next up on the slab for the Tigers will be struggling pitcher, Armando Galarraga (3-7, 5.62). How do you interpret giving up at least one home run per game in the last 10 straight appearances? That can’t be good for any slinger. His last two starts have seen Galarraga log in a total of six innings, allowing a lump sum of 16 hits and eight runs. Another disturbing stat on the sheet is 2.4 walks per game (33 total walks allowed). Most surprising in relation to the sloppy pitching is the ‘under’ taking control at 8-6 in Galarraga’s last 14 starts despite opponents ripping into the right-hander. All-in-all, Detroit’s offense has helped out Galarraga with 5.4 runs of support per start, but to no avail.
Despite the uphill climb concerning the pitching mismatch, Detroit is still a strong, 50-21 in its last 71 interleague games. The ‘under’ is 21-10 in Chicago’s last 31.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago White Sox – 2:05 p.m. EDT
The Dodgers (47-24, +2100) continue to add separation in the NL West regardless of the Giants’ 18-9 record in the last 27. What L.A. has working in its favor is the strong pitching game. More specifically is Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.83), his 1.27 WHIP and 5-2 matching records on the road and during the day.
This will be Billingsley’s first start against the White Sox. But in recent games, the right-handed phenom is 3-0 in four starts. He’s allowed 6.2 hits, two runs and 5.4 Ks per game during this stretch. Billingsley is 1-4 on the run line in the last five games.
Chicago enters Thursday with a 7-2 record over the Dodgers in their last nine meetings. However, a 3-9 slump in its last 12 home stands has been the complete opposite to a 10-4 run in its last 14 road games. Where to start? Some numbers complicating positive play include Chicago allowing 4.7 runs per game while scoring a putrid, 2.4 runs per game all in the same 14 home contests (run difference of minus-2.3 runs per game).
And coming full circle, the White Sox will have Clayton Richard (2-1, 4.03) going in Game 3 of this three-game set. First off, Chicago is 6-13 in Game 3’s this season. Second, Richard will be going up against a Dodgers club that shelling southpaws for a .289 BA with an 8th ranked, 103 runs. So what angle can we play here if the Sox seem like a total long shot? How about wagering on the total? The ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in Richard’s last 11 appearances (8 starts and 3 games in relief).
During the day, Richard is 0-0 but a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 innings, a stark contrast to a 4.28 ERA during evening duties (despite pitching 42.2 innings during the night time).
The ‘under’ is 8-3 in L.A.’s last 11 road games. In-fact the Dodgers have been able to cover the run line six straight times in its last six road games.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday's Late Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
The end of June and beginning of July is the slowest period on the sports schedule. While the fall months will bring us college and pro football along with baseball, the national pastime is pretty much the only option right now unless you’re into the WNBA, golf or NASCAR. The good news is that there is plenty of action on Thursday’s card, so this Tip Sheet will focus on four late games.
**Phillies (Bastardo) at Rays (Sonnanstine)**
-Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed Tampa Bay as a $1.30 home ‘chalk’ over Philadelphia, with the total set at 10 ‘over’ (minus $1.20). This game is slated to start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
-Philadelphia left-hander Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21 ERA) heads to the hill mired in a personal two-game losing skid after Friday’s setback to Baltimore as a $1.45 home favorite, 7-2. The Dominican Republic native went seven innings, yielding four runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts.
-The combined nine runs failed to topple the 10-run closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings for the 23-year-old.
-Bastardo, a rookie pitcher, has never started against Tampa Bay in his brief major league career.
-Tampa Bay pitcher Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.48 ERA) has alternated wins and losses his last six starts after Friday’s setback to the New York Mets as a $1.10 road ‘chalk,’ 5-3. The Kent State product went six innings, surrendering four runs on seven hits (one home run) with two walks and five strikeouts.
-The combined eight runs failed to eclipse the 9 ½-run closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve to 3-1 his last four starts.
-Sonnanstine, a three-year veteran, has never started against the Phillies during his career.
**Yankees (Pettitte) at Braves (Lowe)**
-LVSC lists Atlanta as a $1.15 home favorite over New York, with the total set at 8 ½. This matchup is scheduled to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET.
-New York’s Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26 ERA) has alternated wins and losses his last five starts after Friday’s victory over Florida as a $1.20 road ‘chalk,’ 5-1. The veteran left-hander was reached for the lone run on three hits (one home run) with no walks and seven strikeouts over seven innings.
-The combined six runs failed to topple the 9 ½-run closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash his sixth straight start.
-Pettitte has not started against the Braves the past few years.
-Atlanta right-hander Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) has dropped his past two starts after Saturday’s setback to Boston as a $1.58 road underdog, 3-0. The 36-year-old went 6 1/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with a walk and two strikeouts.
-The three runs never seriously threatened the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 6-1 his previous seven starts.
-Lowe has not started against the Yankees the previous few seasons.
**Orioles (Hill) at Marlins (West)**
-LVSC opened Florida as a $1.15 home ‘chalk’ over Baltimore, with the total listed at 9 ½. This contest is scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. ET.
-Baltimore’s Rich Hill (3-1, 5.18 ERA) is coming off of Friday’s victory over Philadelphia as a $1.35 road underdog, 7-2. The southpaw was reached for two runs on five hits with four walks and five strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings.
-The combined nine runs went ‘under’ the 10-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ go 5-2 his last seven starts.
-Hill, a five-year veteran, has not started against the Marlins the previous few years.
-Florida pitcher Sean West (2-2, 3.97 ERA) hopes to get back on the winning track after Friday’s setback to the New York Yankees as a $1.10 home underdog, 5-1. The towering 6-foot-8 left-hander lasted just four innings, yielding five runs on 10 hits (one home run) with two walks and seven strikeouts.
-The combined six runs failed to topple the 9 ½-run closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to go 2-1 his last three starts.
-West, a rookie hurler, has never started against the Orioles during his brief career.
**Rangers (Feldman) at Diamondbacks (Garland)**
-LVSC lists Arizona as a $1.20 home favorite over Texas, with the total set at 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus $1.20). This matchup is slated to start at 9:40 p.m. ET.
-Texas pitcher Scott Feldman (5-2, 3.18 ERA) dropped to 0-2 his last three starts after Friday’s setback to San Francisco as a $1.03 road underdog, 6-4. The five-year veteran was tagged for five runs on eight hits (two home runs) with a walk and five strikeouts over six innings.
-The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the eight-run closing total, ending a string of nine straight ‘under’ outings for the right-hander.
-Feldman has not started against the D’backs the previous few seasons.
-Arizona righty Jon Garland (4-7, 4.99 ERA) is searching for his first victory in over a month after going 0-4 his last five starts. The 29-year-old is coming off of Friday’s tough-luck no-decision against Seattle, tossing seven scoreless innings on seven hits with a walk and three strikeouts.
-The D’backs eventually dropped that contest as a $1.15 road underdog, 4-3, while the combined seven runs slithered ‘under’ the 7 ½-run closing total. The ‘over’ had cashed in Garland’s previous two outings.
-The 6-foot-6 hurler pitched for the Los Angeles Angels last season, and went 1-1 against the Rangers in three starts. The 10-year veteran went a combined 15 1/3 innings, allowing 21 runs (20 earned) on 26 hits (five home runs) with three walks and nine strikeouts. The Angels won as a $1.75 home favorite, 7-5, and as a $1.00 road selection, 15-13, while losing as a $1.70 home ‘chalk,’ 10-4. The ‘over’ cashed in all three contests.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Ted Lilly (Chicago Cubs)
Ted Lilly is heating up under the June sun. In four starts this month, the Cubbies left-hander is posting a 1.98 ERA and has struck out 23 batters while walking just six.
Despite these stellar performances, Lilly has just one win to show for his efforts. He’s settled for three no-decisions in June including his most recent start against the Cleveland Indians. He went six innings, allowing three runs on six hits against the Tribe, recording his 11th quality start of the season.
Chris Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)
The inspiring return of Chris Carpenter continues to play out in Disney-like proportions. In his most recent trip to the bump, Carpenter pitched just under eight innings, giving up only one run on three hits.
That gem improved the right-hander’s record to 5-1 on the year and was Carpenter’s fifth quality start in a row. He has a 2-1 record and an ERA of 2.43 this month, helping St. Louis capture first place in the National League Central.
Slumping
Armando Galarraga (Detroit Tigers)
The Tigers’ youngster appeared to be turning over a new leaf in June, posting an ERA under 4.00 in his first two appearances of the month. However, in his past two starts Galarraga has pitched only six innings while allowing seven earned runs on 16 hits.
His most recent outing was a rain-shortened showing versus the Milwaukee Brewers. While he was able to throw just four innings, Galarraga did manage to give up a home run – making it the 10th straight game an opponent has gone yard off the right-hander. He has allowed 14 dingers during that stretch.
Sean West (Florida Marlins)
The Marlins’ rookie hurler blew through seven batters when he faced the New York Yankees in his most recent start. Unfortunately, he also gave up five runs on five hits and lasted just four innings.
West has dropped his past two trips to the mound since pitching an eight-inning shutout against the San Francisco Giants. The 6-foot-8 southpaw has good stuff but sometimes gets caught going after batters, leading to the three home runs he’s allowed in the past two games. He’s served five round trippers during his six starts in 2009.
Philadelphia (37-32) at Tampa Bay (38-35)
Last year’s World Series participants wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field, with the Rays trotting out right-hander Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.60 ERA) opposite Phillies rookie Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21).
Tampa Bay bounced back from Tuesday’s 10-1 shellacking to the Phillies and delivered their own beat-down Wednesday, rolling to a 7-1 victory. The Rays have won nine of their last 13 overall and are on further rolls of 80-33 at the Trop, 45-17 when hosting teams with a winning record, 5-1 in interleague home games and 6-2 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia, which entered this series coming off a dismal 1-8 homestand, still have baseball’s best road mark at 24-10, and they’re 38-17 in their last 55 roadies dating to last season. However, they’re now on a 10-20 nosedive in interleague road contests and they’ve dropped seven of their last eight in interleague play.
Philadelphia took out Tampa Bay in five games in last year’s Fall Classic, with the home team going 4-1, and the Phils have won four of the last five in this rivalry. These squads have met 14 times since 2000, and the host has gone 10-4, with the Rays winning six of their last eight clashes at the Trop.
The Rays have alternated wins and losses in Sonnanstine’s last six starts, with the righty going 3-3 in that stretch. Last Friday against the Mets, he allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in a 5-3 road loss. Sonnanstine hasn’t been beaten at home this year, going 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts.
Tampa is 1-5 in Sonnanstine’s last six starts against winning teams, but the Rays are on runs behind Sonnanstine of 4-0 at home, 9-2 against winning teams at the Trop and 7-2 in interleague play. Sonnanstine lost his lone career start against Philly in Game 4 of last year’s World Series, a 10-2 road blasting as he allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks in just four innings.
Bastardo has taken the loss in his last two starts after winning his first two big-league contests. Last Friday against Baltimore, he gave up four runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-2 home loss. Six days earlier at home against Boston, he threw just one inning, allowing five runs (four earned) on three hits and three walks in an 11-6 defeat. Bastardo is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his two road outings, and this will be his first game against the Rays.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-2 overall (all in interleague play), 9-4-1 at home, 25-10-1 in interleague home games, 5-0 with Sonnanstine facing a winning team and 5-2 behind the righty at home. Likewise, Philadelphia is riding “under” streaks of 18-9-1 in interleague play, 7-1 in A.L. ballparks and 6-2-1 on artificial turf, though the over has hit in four of the Phils’ last six road games.
Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
N.Y. Yankees (39-32) at Atlanta (34-37)
The Yankees finally got back in the win column last night in Atlanta and now send left-hander Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26 ERA) to the mound at Turner Field to wrap up a three-game series with the Braves, who will counter with right-hander Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09).
After getting shut out 4-0 in the series opener Tuesday, New York finally busted out the bats en route to an 8-4 victory Wednesday to halt a three-game losing skid. The Yankees remain just 5-9 in their last 14 games, following a 19-6 surge that had them atop the A.L. East. Joe Girardi’s squad is on further skids of 2-6 on the road and 1-4 against right-handed starters.
Atlanta is on upticks of 5-3 at Turner and 13-7 against winning teams, and in interleague play, the Braves are on rolls of 6-1 at home and 8-4 against winning teams. However, they’ve gone just 3-9 in their last 12 interleague home games against lefties.
After winning four in a row behind Pettitte, New York has split his last four starts. Most recently, Pettitte shut down host Florida last Friday in a 5-1 victory, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against no walks. The southpaw is 4-1 with a solid 2.35 ERA in six road starts this season, and he’s 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA in nine career starts against Atlanta.
With Pettitte on the hill, the Yankees are on upswings of 6-2 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-1 in interleague play, 17-6 against the N.L. East and a lengthy 67-28 against opponents with a losing record.
Atlanta has dropped two in a row and four of five backing Lowe, including Saturday’s 3-0 loss at Boston, in which he allowed all three runs on seven hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings. Prior to that, he went just 2 1/3 innings in an 11-2 loss at Baltimore, yielding a season-high seven runs on eight hits and three walks.
Lowe is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in seven home starts this season, but he’s 8-10 with an inflated 6.07 ERA in 39 career appearances (15 starts) against the Yankees. On the positive side, the Braves are 4-1 in Lowe’s last five starts against winning teams.
The under is on a bundle of runs for New York, including 6-2 overall, 8-2 against losing teams, 19-8 in interleague play and 7-2 in interleague roadies. Plus, with Pettitte starting, the under is on rolls of 43-17-1 overall, 28-10 on the road, 10-1 against the N.L. East and 16-5-1 in interleague contests. For Atlanta, the under is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 with Lowe starting and 4-0 behind Lowe at Turner.
Finally, last night’s game easily topped the posted total, ending a 5-0 “under” run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, June 25
St. Louis at New York Mets (1:10 p.m. EDT). Johan Santana will look for only his second win in five starts when he faces St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter. Santana rebounded from the worst start of his career, but lost to Tampa Bay 3-1 on Sunday. Carpenter hasn't given up more than three runs in any start this season.
Boston at Washington (7:05 p.m. EDT). John Smoltz will make his season debut for the Red Sox as they try and complete a three-game sweep of the Nationals. It will mark the end of a long rehab that has sidelined him for more than a year after shoulder surgery last June.
STARS
Wednesday
-Randy Johnson, Giants, won his 302nd game, allowing one run on six hits in San Francisco's 6-3 win over Oakland.
-David Ortiz, Red Sox, got his 1,000th RBI and Boston won for a second straight night in its first regular-season visit to Washington since 1971 with a 6-4 victory over the Nationals.
-Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, ended a 28-game home run drought and had three RBIs in Los Angeles' 11-3 win over Colorado.
-Josh Fields, White Sox, who entered the game in an 0-for-16 slump, hit two of Chicago's season-high six homers in a 10-7 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
-Francisco Cervelli, Yankees, hit his first career homer to break New York's 14-inning scoring drought in an 8-4 win over Atlanta.
-Miguel Olivo, Royals, homered on the first pitch in the 11th inning and Kansas City won its second straight after snapping a five-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over Houston.
-Fernando Nieve, Mets, pitched six scoreless innings to extend his improbable stint with New York in a 11-0 win over St. Louis.
-Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners, led off the eighth inning with a home run off reliever Edward Mujica, and Seattle won its 19th one-run game of the season with a 4-3 victory over San Diego.
MANNY WATCH
Manny Ramirez played his second minor league game as he prepares for his return to the Dodgers on July 3 after serving a 50-game suspension. Ramirez grounded out and walked, making him hitless in three at-bats during his two games in Albuquerque with the Los Angels Dodgers' top farm club. He also ran to catch a fly and fielded a ball off the left-field wall.
SABATHIA START
New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia threw in the bullpen before Wednesday's game against the Atlanta Braves and said he'll be ready to start the opener of a weekend series against the New York Mets. Sabathia threw 27 pitches after leaving his last start with tightness in his left biceps.
STRANGE ENDING
Jason Kendall's two-out double in the eighth inning tied the game and the Milwaukee catcher hustled on two throwing errors to score, giving the Brewers an unlikely 4-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins.
AILING SHEFF
Gary Sheffield had a cortisone shot behind his right knee Wednesday and was held out of the depleted New York Mets' lineup for the third straight game. Sheffield had already missed the Mets' first two games of their four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals and will likely be out until Friday when they play the Yankees. Manager Jerry Manuel said Sheffield was available to pinch hit but there was no plan to place the slugging outfielder on the Mets' crowded disabled list.
STATS
Indians starter Carl Pavano gave up 11 hits and eight runs, three earned, in 3 2-3 innings. Pavano appeared to be on his way to a good season after winning six of seven decisions from May 1-June 5, but he has a 12.15 ERA in his last three starts.
SIDELINED
The Florida Marlins placed closer Matt Lindstrom on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday with a sprained right elbow, one day after he blew a three-run lead. ... Reds right-hander Edinson Volquez's plans to throw on Wednesday were shut down after an MRI last week revealed the inflammation in his elbow has not subsided.
SLUMPING
Twins catcher Joe Mauer ended a season-high 12 at-bat hitless streak with a single in the seventh inning of Minnesota's 4-3 loss to Milwaukee. He finished 1 for 3 with two walks, dropping his average to .394.
SPEAKING
"This is not the old or the new or the done. It's just a new chapter in which when I have a baseball in my hand, I feel like I can make a pitch and do the things I have to do to take the sting out of the bat. And if that's the case, we'll progress and keep getting better every time out. But tomorrow is just one rung in the ladder to try and climb as far as I can to see how good I can be, and really at the end of the day to be in position to pitch in the playoffs.''- Red Sox pitcher John Smoltz, who will make his season debut on Thursday against the Nationals after missing more than a year following shoulder surgery.