Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Josh Johnson (5-2, 2.19) Florida Marlins
If not for Ray Halladay's perfect game, Johnson would be near-flawless in his last three starts as well.
Johnson was outdueled 1-0 on Saturday night and the game's only run came on a three-base error. Otherwise the two aces might still be battling it out on the mound.
Johnson has been hot virtually all season, but he has not allowed an earned run in his past three starts - yes, a rare triple-goose egg ERA of 0.00 over his last 20 innings.
"(Halladay) was perfect," Johnson said. "I need to go out there and be perfect as well. To give my team a chance to win, that's what I needed to do."
With a current streak of 25 innings without allowing an earned run, Johnson is damn close to perfection.
Kris Medlen (2-1, 2.85) Atlanta Braves
Medlen appears to be adjusting well to his starting role after spending the first month of the season in the bullpen.
Medlen allowed only two earned runs or less in each of his first three starts of the season before picking up his first win of the season as a starter in his last outing against the Pirates.
"He really came on strong," Braves manager Bobby Cox said of Medlen. "He had more strikeouts than innings pitched, and less hits [than innings pitched] in his very first year. He's come a long ways. We like him."
The second-year righthander can only improve as he gains experience as a starter, and the Braves are suddenly providing plenty of run support.
Slumping
CC Sabathia (4-3, 4.16) New York Yankees
The Yankees' 19-game winner in 2009 has gone missing for the past month, going 0-2 in his last five starts after getting off to a 4-1 record to open the season.
Sabathia hasn't won since beating Baltimore on May 3, exactly a month from today's start against the Orioles. Maybe he has the Birds' number, but he hasn't had anyone else's lately.
The lefty allowed just eight earned runs over his first five starts but has given up 20 in his last five, boasting his ERA to 4.16. That's the highest he's had for a season since his second year in the majors - 4.37 in 2002.
Sabathia was shelled by the Indians and Mets in his last two outings, allowing 17 hit and 11 runs in just 11 innings of work and prompting manager Joe Girardi to vaguely say "It is what it is" after Sabathia was derailed in the Subway Series.
Take that curt comment for what it's worth, but "what it is" is a slump, something CC hasn't encountered for some time.
Hiroki Kuroda (5-3, 3.55) Los Angeles Dodgers
After getting off to a strong 5-1 start to the season, Kuroda has fallen on hard time in his last two outings, going 0-2 and allowing eight earned runs in just 10 innings of work.
Kuroda had a meltdown in his last start against the Rockies, lasting just four innings (his shortest of the season) after giving up 10 hits and five earned runs. That's what happens when a control pitcher is a little off his game.
"You just have to chalk it up and move on. You go out there every five or six days all year long and you're going to throw in some clunkers. That's what happened today," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said of Kuroda. "It was interesting. He was either just off the edges or right down the middle of the plate."
Kuroda fell to 0-3 with a lifetime 7.57 ERA vs. the Rockies. Maybe he'll have better luck against the Braves, against whom he threw a complete game shutout the last time they met.
Thursday Afternoon Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday afternoon baseball card showcases five games, including four contests inside the American League. The Royals and Angels wrap up a four-game set in Kansas City, while the Red Sox try to slow the AL West-leading Athletics. We'll start in the Bronx with the Bombers looking to continue their dominance of Baltimore.
Orioles at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST
The defending champs have owned the O's recently, winning 17 of the last 20 meetings, including a 6-1 mark this season. New York sends out CC Sabathia, who has beaten Baltimore six consecutive times since losing at Camden Yards on Opening Day of last season.
Sabathia (4-3, 4.16 ERA) hasn't been especially sharp in his last two outings, allowing 10 earned runs and 17 hits against the Mets and Indians. Extending this back through Sabathia's previous four trips to the mound, the southpaw has given up 17 earned runs, with the Yankees losing all four of those games. In all six of Sabathia's wins over the Orioles since last May, each victory has come by at least two runs, helping run-line bettors cash.
Kevin Millwood (0-5, 3.89 ERA) has turned into an automatic 'under' play, with nine of his 10 starts resulting in 'unders.' Unfortunately for Millwood, the Orioles have averaged 1.4 runs/game in his six road starts, all Baltimore losses and 'unders.' The O's did manage to beat the Yankees when Millwood took the mound back in late April, winning 5-4. Millwood scattered five hits and two earned runs in five innings, the fourth consecutive time his teams (Baltimore and Texas) have beaten New York since last season.
The Orioles have been horrible all season, including a 4-11 mark in Game 3's of a series. Baltimore has turned into a solid 'under' play recently by hitting it in 12 of its previous 15 contests. The Yankees own an 11-1 ledger when laying at least $2.00 this season, with the lone loss coming against the Indians last weekend with Sabathia on the hill.
Indians at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST
Detroit has hit the skids of late with a not-so-stellar homestand against Oakland and Cleveland. The Tigers dropped three of four to the A's, prior to a one-run setback to the Tribe on Tuesday. Cleveland has fared better on the highway (11-17) than at home (8-14) this season, but has lost seven of the last eight meetings at Comerica Park.
The Tigers send out Rick Porcello (4-5, 5.27 ERA), who has pitched better following a slow start to the season. The 21-year old righty has delivered three quality starts in his last four outings, but Detroit is 1-2 his previous three home outings. Porcello's numbers against Cleveland are solid, allowing two earned runs in five career starts versus the Tribe, all Tiger victories.
The Indians counter with David Huff (2-6, 5.54 ERA), who is making his first start since getting nailed in the head with a line-drive by Alex Rodriguez last Saturday. Huff lasted 2.1 innings, but the Indians rallied for a 13-11 win, cashing as nearly $3.00 underdogs. That was the first victory in six tries for Cleveland when Huff has started on the road this season, while being listed as a substantial 'dog each time. Huff was on the losing end of a 5-2 setback at Detroit in early April, allowing four runs (one earned) in six innings of work.
The Tigers are a strong 17-8 during the day this season, including an 11-4 mark at home. On the flip side, the Indians are just 4-9 in matinee action on the road, while going 1-5 in this situation against right-handed starting pitchers.
Athletics at Red Sox - 1:35 PM EST
Oakland is playing much better on the road recently, taking five of its past seven on the highway as the A's and Red Sox finish off a three-game set at Fenway Park. Boston is on an 11-3 run since allowing the walk-off homer to Marcus Thames and the Yankees on May 17.
Brett Anderson (2-1, 1.88 ERA) makes his second start after coming off the DL on May 28. The Oakland lefty scattered three hits in 5.2 scoreless innings of a 6-0 victory at Detroit his last time out, the first time all season he has been listed as an underdog. Anderson has allowed one run or less in four of his five starts this season, while winning twice at Fenway last season.
Tim Wakefield (1-3, 5.68 ERA) looks to bounce back following a disappointing home effort against the Royals. The knuckleballer yielded nine earned runs and 12 hits in less than four innings of work in a 12-5 loss to Kansas City, the third consecutive home loss for Wakefield. The veteran did shut down the Oakland offense last season, beating the A's twice, while allowing five earned runs in 15 innings.
Oakland has profited nicely in Game 3's with a 10-4 mark, while Boston is 5-2 the last seven games as a home favorite of up to $1.50.
Angels at Royals - 2:10 PM EST
Los Angeles looks to keep rolling over Kansas City, going for its 11th win in 13 tries in this series. The Angels send out righty Jered Weaver to the mound, while Zack Greinke tries to turn around his luck for the Royals.
Weaver (4-2, 2.75 ERA) has delivered quality starts in four of his last five trips to the mound, including a 5-1 home win over the Mariners his last time out. The former Long Beach State standout scattered three hits and one unearned run in seven innings, his first victory in four starts. Weaver's numbers are better at night (4-0, 2.86 ERA) than during the day (0-2, 2.55 ERA), with the Angels dropping three of his four matinee outings.
Greinke (1-6, 3.39 ERA) pitched well in his last start at Boston, giving up five hits and one earned run in six innings as the Royals fell, 1-0. It's the second time this season Kansas City has dropped a 1-0 decision that Greinke has started against an AL East opponent on the road (May 2 at Tampa Bay). For the exception of a subpar effort against the Rockies, Greinke has produced quality outings in seven of his last eight trips to the mound. Greinke lost twice to the Angels last season despite going eight innings each time in a pair of one-run losses.
Both teams own 0-3 marks in the final contest of a four-game series, while the Angels are 9-3 the last 12 meetings at Kauffman Stadium.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 6/3
By Dan Bebe
National League
Nationals (-120) @ Astros with a total of 9
Wil Nieves is 3-for-3 off Moehler;
Ryan Zimmerman is 6-for-12 off Moehler.
In my humble opinion, Brian Moehler is in that rare class of pitchers that are Pre-season Nominees for Worst Starter in Baseball. He's an even 3-3 with a 4.44 ERA against the Nats in his career, but is coming off a start against the Reds where he allowed 8 runs in less than 3 innings. J.D. Martin can be awful, and can be good, but I'm not comfortable laying -120 chalk on the road with just about anyone on the Nats staff. Let's wait and back the Nats against a team where we can get some dog prices, not an Astros team that just waits until you fade them to jump up and score 5. Leans: None
Brewers @ Marlins (-240) with a total of 8
Prince Fielder is 3-for-10 off Johnson;
Jorge Cantu is 3-for-4 off Capuano since '05;
Ronny Paulino is 5-for-15 with 4 RBI off Capuano.
There's no real value here. I don't think anyone should be playing home run lines, and even though Johnson is on a vicious roll, laying this type of chalk against something of a question mark in Capuano is a dangerous play. Not to mention Johnson's career ERA against Milwaukee is actually higher than Capuano's career ERA against Florida (3.55 vs. 2.85). Amazing, I know. Capuano is 3-1 in his career against the Fish, so this is a good spot to deploy him, maybe with a tiny bit of confidence. Heaven knows he'll probably get lit up for 7 runs, but I still don't much care for this line or this match-up. Leans: None
Braves @ Dodgers (-135) with a total of 8
Not a great deal of data to work with. Medlen is 1-0 with a 2.35 career ERA against the Dodgers, but that was before he moved into the starting rotation. Now, since becoming a starter, Medlen has excelled. His team has won 3 of his 4 starts, and he's been teetering on quality start in just about all of his efforts. That being said, both pitchers are trending down in this meeting. Medlen gave up 3 runs his last time out for the first time, and it seems like Medlen is playing with fire a little bit, allowing quite a few hits in each appearance. Kuroda is coming off his worst start of the year, getting clubbed in Colorado, but of course, those that follow the Dodgers know of Kuroda's distaste for the Rockies. He's a better pitcher than that, and I expect him to battle like the dickens against the Braves, a team against whom Kuroda is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA. Two hot teams going head to head with some red flags around the starters? I'd normally say "no thanks", but the Dodgers complete lack of offense in that series with Arizona is the biggest reason for concern. They got the sweep, which means folks think they're hotter than they are, so there might actually be a tiny bit of value with the hotter-than-you Atlanta Braves. Leans: Braves-3
American League
Orioles @ Yankees (-320) with a total of 9
Adam Jones was 4-for-9 off Sabathia before 2010;
Ty Wigginton was 7-for-19 with 1 HR off Sabathia before 2010;
Robinson Cano was 6-for-18 with a HR and 3 RBI off Millwood between '05 and '09;
Derek Jeter was 6-for-18 off Millwood between '05 and '09;
Alex Rodriguez was 6-for-18 with a HR and 2 RBI off Millwood between '05 and '09;
Nick Swisher was 10-for-29 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Millwood between '05 and '09.
Millwood faced the Yanks once this year and allowed 2 runs in 5.1 innings, definitely one of his shorter outings, and amazingly, a game the Orioles went on to win. Sabathia is a different opponent than Phil Hughes. Normally, that's a good thing for underdog backers, but not against the O's. Sabathia is 11-1 against Baltimore in his career with a 2.52 ERA, including leading the Yanks to 2 wins against them this season, already. The O's have scored 4 runs in almost 16 innings off C.C. this year, but this team is a mess. Of course, I made a promise to put a 1/4-unit on underdogs when the favorite is up over 300, so we'll do that here, but I'm not happy about it. Leans: None
Indians @ Tigers (-200) with a total of 9.5
Travis Hafner is 3-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Porcello;
Jhonny Peralta is 3-for-8 with 2 RBI off Porcello.
This is another miserably large line when, in my opinion, the pitching match-up doesn't really warrant it. Porcello has simply not been very good this year, though he does appear to be improving. And while Huff's 2-6 record and season ERA of 5.54 are pretty ugly, he's 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA against Detroit. This one is just an ugly game, altogether. The Tigers have been slumping, so why the huge line? Porcello is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA against Cleveland in his career so far, so maybe that's playing a role. Still, there's nothing good, here, other than potentially looking at the Under, since this number is pretty high, presumably because of the starters' ERA's floating in the mid-5's. Leans: Under-2
Athletics @ Red Sox (-130) with a total of 9
Jack Cust is 6-for-14 off Wakefield with 3 RBI;
Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-12 off Wakefield;
Mike Lowell is 2-for-4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Anderson.
Brett Anderson loves stomping on Red Sox, and the ultra-low line here is a very strong indicator that we're not the only ones that know it. Wakefield had a great start in Philadelphia, but otherwise he's been pretty bad this year, posting a 1-3 record and 5.68 ERA. He's 5-4 in his career against Oakland, but hasn't seen much of most of the young guys on this A's club. One interesting note is that Rajai Davis leads the league in stolen bases, and if he gets on against a knuckleballer, see ya later. I really think the A's should almost be favored in this one, if the Red Sox weren't so solid at using the advantages of their home ballpark. In any case, Wakefield's rough year, Anderson's 2-1, 2.05 career mark against the BoSox, and the early game time all point towards less of a home field advantage and a good chance for Oakland to nab one in Boston. Leans: Athletics-4
Angels @ Royals (-120) with a total of 7.5
Erick Aybar is 5-for-11 off Greinke;
Reggie Willits is 4-for-5 off Greinke;
Jose Guillen is 8-for-18 with 4 RBI off Weaver.
Interestingly, both starters have ERA's in the low 3's, and both starters have a higher career ERA against this opponent than season ERA for 2010. Weaver is 3-4 with a 3.35 lifetime mark against the Royals, and Greinke, not surprisingly, has a losing record against the Angels (comes with the territory in Kansas City), but his ERA against LA is up near 4. I'd look at the Over for two decent-hitting teams, but something about the afternoon time, potential reserves in the lineup, and the possibility that both teams just want to get to the evening so they can either fly somewhere or relax with a beer. I think you could argue Weaver is having the better season just from a pure consistency standpoint, and I can't help but think we're getting a half-decent deal on the (potentially) better starter. Leans: Angels-3
Rangers (-125) @ White Sox with a total of 9
What's that? You want to try to break this one down without player notes? Sure thing! But in all seriousness, the current Rangers haven't seen much of Garcia, and no one has seen much of Lewis, so we'll go off pitching and hitting trends. Freddy Garcia is coming off a nice start against the Rays, and he's been just about serviceable in most of his starts this year. He's 6-5 lifetime against the Rangers, but those stats were compiled back in the "old days" before he bounced around and disappeared, and now resurfaced. Lewis has been good most of the year, though his strikeouts are going down in every start, and that's a reason for concern. If you're going to walk 2-4 batters every start, you need to be able to escape jams, too. I don't like either starter here, and I don't really like how either team is playing ball. The only reason this one isn't a non-lean is because there's some dog value with Garcia. Leans: White Sox-1
Twins @ Mariners (-135) with a total of 7
Joe Mauer is 10-for-19 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Hernandez;
Jim Thome is 6-for-10 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Hernandez;
Chone Figgins is 4-for-8 off Pavano.
Carl Pavano's career is back on track, I think it's safe to say. If he gets hurt tonight, he can blame me. Still, he's had 2 bad starts this year, and every other effort has been more than enough to either get his team a win or keep them in the game. He's only given up more than 2 earned runs once in all those other starts, and he consistently goes near 7 innings every time out. The Mariners are hitting the ball a tiny bit better, but Pavano would seem to be the kind of pitcher that can succeed up at Safeco. Also, King Felix, despite the 3.50 ERA (which appears pretty decent) has been something of a bad sign for the Mariners this year. They've lost his last 7 straight starts - not good. You can see that Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have hit him hard, but he is 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA lifetime against the Twins, so this one might be pretty evenly matched. Gun to my head, I think Minnesota is a nice value, but this cheap price isn't going to happen many times with Felix at home. Leans: Twins-2
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Nationals at Astros – The Nationals are 5-0 since July 25, 2009 when J.D. Martin starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $650. The Astros are 0-6 since September 13, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $735 when playing against.
Braves at Dodgers – The Dodgers are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The Dodgers are 5-0 since July 03, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $500.
Twins at Mariners – The Mariners are 12-0 since June 03, 2009 as a favorite after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1200. The Mariners are 8-0 since May 30, 2009 when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $835. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 26, 2010 when Felix Hernandez starts for a net profit of $930 when playing against.
Brewers at Marlins – The Brewers are 5-0 since September 13, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $745. The Marlins are 11-0 since May 24, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1125. The Marlins are 9-0 since May 20, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $900.
Athletics at Red Sox – The Athletics are 5-0 since May 20, 2009 when Brett Anderson starts as a road dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $710. The Red Sox are 5-0 since May 18, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $700. The Red Sox are 5-0 since June 04, 2009 when Tim Wakefield starts in June for a net profit of $530.
Angels at Royals - The Angels are 7-0 since June 04, 2009 as a dog after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $905. The Angels are 0-6 since July 01, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts as a dog after a quality start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Royals are 0-9 since May 30, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Royals are 5-0 since May 13, 2010 when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $615.
Indians at Tigers – The Indians are 4-0 since April 22, 2010 as a road 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $745. The Tigers are 8-0 since May 05, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $860. The Tigers are 7-0 since June 07, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700.
Rangers at White Sox – The White Sox are 7-1 since April 11, 2009 as a home dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $710.
Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-6 since April 06, 2010 when Kevin Millwood starts on the road for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Orioles are 4-0 since August 20, 2009 as a road 170+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last four games for a net profit of $885. The Yankees are 12-0 since April 22, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1200. The Yankees are 7-0 since August 09, 2009 at home when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $715.