Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees (9-3, 3.49 ERA)
Sabathia has been scary good in his last five trips to the mound. He’s gone 5-0 with an ERA of 2.19 during this stretch. In his last outing, the hefty lefty went eight innings, allowing one run on four hits while whiffing seven batters. Sabathia has 35 strikeouts over those five wins.
Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins (9-6, 3.33 ERA)
After a snag in May, the veteran right hander has been on a tear in his recent starts. Pavano has won four straight outings, giving up just six runs over 33 innings of work. The mustachioed hurler has gone the distance in his last two appearances, most recently putting together a complete-game shutout for a 6-0 win against the New York Mets.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (7-2, 2.88 ERA)
The A’s second-year arm hasn’t tasted defeat since May 16, posting a 6-0 record over his last eight starts. Cahill boasts a diminutive 2.24 ERA during this span and is coming off 7 2-3 innings of work in which he allowed only two hits and struck out 10 for a 5-0 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend.
Slumping
Johan Santana, New York Mets (5-5, 3.55 ERA)
Age and rumors are starting to catch up with the Mets’ ace. Santana looked to be rounding into form last month, but has fought through a tough June which also featured a sexual assault charge stemming from alleged incident in Florida last fall. Santana has lost his velocity and his once-infamous changeup isn’t getting the job done. He allowed five runs in six innings in his last start, marking the first time in his career he has allowed four or more runs in four straight starts.
Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs (8-3, 3.01)
After starting the season a perfect 8-0, Silva has fallen on hard times in his past three starts, going 0-2 during that stretch. Silva allowed only two earned runs in his last outing against the White Sox to settle for a no-decision on the day after teammate Carlos Zambrano went bonkers in the dugout, putting extra pressure on Silva to produce.
Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) Tampa Bay Rays
It's hard to call Niemann a slumper since he was the victim of Edwin Jackson's no-hitter in his last outing. After all, he allowed only one run and six hits in 7 1/3 innings. But after a 6-0 start to the season, Niemann is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA a full point higher than his season number. He has allowed five homers over that stretch, more than he gave up than in his previous eight starts.
Thursday Daytime Tips
By Judd Hall
The calendar has officially turned over to July and that means we’re inching closer to the All-Star Break. Before we get to those festivities in Anaheim, we have some baseball to discuss. Thursday has three games on the afternoon docket with one of those teams sitting pretty in terms of making the playoffs.
Blue Jays (40-38, +552) at Indians (27-47, -888) – 12:05 p.m. EDT
If the Blue Jays were in almost any other division, they’d have a realistic shot at first place. Unfortunately for them, they’re sitting eight games back of the Yankees in the American League East. And Toronto is falling behind further as they’re mired in a three-game slide. A big reason for that slump is an offense that is averaging just over two runs per game at the present.
Toronto will look for a strong pitching performance out of Shawn Marcum (7-3, 3.14) to offset its cold bats. Marcum has the goods to turn things around as he’s won two of his last three starts. But he’s also posted a strong 3-1 mark in his seven starts, while the Jays are 5-2 in those outings. Marcum has a 4.12 earned run average, which is well above the 2.41 he has at Rogers Centre. The result of that higher ERA is seeing the ‘over’ go 4-2-1 in those road spots.
The Indians will send Justin Masterson (2-7, 5.21) out to close out this series. Masterson looked like he might be turning the corner by posting back-to-back wins over the White Sox and Red Sox in the middle of June. In his last three starts, he’s gone 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA.
Cleveland might not be a great wager in this spot as they’re 4-5 in nine home day games against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, can boast a 7-2 mark when on the road for afternoon showdowns this season. It also doesn’t hurt that Toronto is 6-3 this year when playing AL Central foes away from home.
Mariners (32-44, -1,319) at Yankees (47-29, +55) – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Seattle looked like it might be ready to fall back down with a two-game slid after a six-game win streak. But the M’s might have a little bit of solid footing at the moment after winning two of their last three contests.
The Mariners will try to leave the Big Apple on a high note with Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-7, 6.18) on the mound. It hasn’t been a great year for the Australian hurler. And it really has stunk for Rowland-Smith when pitching away from Safeco Field, evidenced by an 0-5 mark with a 8.10 ERA.
New York will give the starting nod to C.C. Sabathia (9-3, 3.49) on Thursday afternoon. All Sabathia has done is peel off five consecutive victories that he’s lasted at least seven innings in for the Bronx Bombers. And the former Indian is a pleasant 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA in seven starts at Yankee Stadium in 2010.
The Yanks have had good success against lefties in home day matches this year by going 4-2 in the six opportunities. New York has also gone 5-2 against AL West clubs as a home “chalk” this year, covering the run line in each of those contests.
Reds (43-35, +565) at Cubs (34-43, -1,731) – 2:20 p.m. EDT
Cincinnati is finally living up to the hype that experts have doled out upon them over the past few years. Only thing that the Reds are really doing now is running neck and neck with St. Louis for the top spot in this NL Central. Cincy is currently just a ½-game out of first place, but that can change at the drop of a hat.
The Reds are looking for a big boost out of Travis Wood on Thursday, who is making his first start of the season. He was in the running for the fifth starting role in the rotation, but was kept in the minors due to control issues. There is no certainty that his command has improved at Triple-A Louisville, where Wood was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts. The young lefty also had allowed 23 walks to 97 strikeouts in 98 innings of work.
The Cubbies are content in sending Carlos Silva (8-2, 3.01) out to the mound to open this series. Silva has lost his last three starts for Chicago, but he pitched well enough to win all three of those spots. He gave up no more than three earned runs in any of those games and lasted at least six innings. What killed Silva in those starts was either his batting order not backing him up or the bullpen failing him. He has done well enough at the friendly confines in 2010, evidenced by a 4-2 record and an ERA of 2.98.
The Reds are a solid team to fade when on the road for day games this season. Cincy has gone 3-7 in 10 afternoon fixtures away from Great American Ballpark. Chicago, however, has won all three of its matches during the day at Wrigley Field versus left-handed pitching.
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Tips and Trends
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Rays: Tampa Bay is happy to see the month of June left behind. The Rays struggled in June, notably their offense. Tampa Bay was recently no-hit yet again, an amazing occurrence that has happened far too frequently to such a talented offense. Tampa is 45-32 SU this season, 2 games behind the Yankees in the American League East division. The Rays are -3.54 and -8.87 units both SU and on the RL this year. Ace P Jeff Niemann will look to get his team back on track tonight. Niemann is 6-2 overall this season, with an ERA of 2.72 and a WHIP of 1.07. The Rays are 13-5 in their last 18 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. Tampa is 7-0 in Niemann's last 7 road starts. The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. Tampa is 9-3 in Niemann's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rays are 5-2 in Niemann's last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Twins (-120, O/U 8.5): Minnesota has won back to back games, pushing their lead in the American League Central to 1.5 games. Minnesota is 43-35 SU this season, including 25-14 SU at home. The Twins have been winning of late thanks to an explosive offense. The Twins are +1.34 and -7.01 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Carl Pavano will look to keep up his solid season so far with a strong performance tonight. Pavano is 9-6 with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.03 this year. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Twins are 2-5 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 4-0 in Pavano's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 4-1 in Pavano's last 5 starts as a home favorite. The Twins are 5-2 in Pavano's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Twins are 4-0 last 4 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 5-2 last 7 against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS J.J. Hardy (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers: Milwaukee is playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, as they've won 7 of their last 10 games overall. The Brewers are 35-43 SU this season, including a respectable road record of 18-21 SU. Milwaukee trails the Reds by 8 games in the National League Central standings. Milwaukee is -9.47 and -6.86 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Veteran Randy Wolf will pitch tonight for the Brewers, as he's 5-7 with an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.57 this year. The Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against a right-handed starter. Milwaukee is 4-1 in Wolf's last 5 road starts with the total set between 9 and 10.5 runs. The Brewers are 1-4 in Wolf's last 5 starts against the National League Central. Milwaukee is 1-6 in Wolf's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest this season.
Brewers are 5-2 last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games with the total set between 9 and 10.5 runs.
Key Injuries - C Gregg Zaun (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Cardinals (-130, O/U 9.5): St. Louis has been merely average of late, going 5-5 SU in their past 10 games. St. Louis hasn't lost any ground in the National League Central, as they only trail the Reds by 0.5 games. The Cardinals are 43-35 SU this season, including 25-13 SU at home. St. Louis is -6.08 and -13.44 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. P Blake Hawksworth will make the home start tonight, as he's 2-4 with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.70 this season. The Cardinals are 39-19 in their last 58 home games against a team with a losing road record. St. Louis is 7-2 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a left-handed starter.
Cardinals are 41-13 last 54 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - RF Ryan Ludwick (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Rangers at Angels – The Rangers are 9-0 since April 22, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts after a quality start for a net profit of $980. The Rangers are 8-0 since July 04, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $1040. The Rangers are 6-0 since April 14, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $705. The Angels are 0-6 since September 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $835 when playing against.
Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 0-5 since April 17, 2010 when Randy Wolf starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $595 when playing against. The Cardinals are 10-0 since April 27, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065.
Reds at Cubs – The Cubs are 8-0 since May 27, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $860. The Cubs are 6-0 since April 21, 2010 when Carlos Silva starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $600.
Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-9 since May 21, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $980 when playing against.
Mets at Nationals – The Mets are 7-0 since May 20, 2010 when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $790.
Athletics at Orioles – The Athletics are 7-0 since May 24, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Athletics are 6-0 since September 02, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $680.
Astros at Padres – The Padres are 0-8 since May 01, 2010 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $845 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since April 16, 2010 when Jon Garland starts after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $730.
Phillies at Pirates – The League is 7-0 since August 18, 2009 as a away 200+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700. The Phillies are 0-4 since June 26, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite after the results of his last three starts were LLW for a net profit of $565 when playing against.
Giants at Rockies – The Giants are 0-9 since July 21, 2009 as a road dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Rockies are 12-0 since July 06, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $1200. The Rockies are 8-0 since May 29, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $800. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 12, 2009 when Aaron Cook starts at home after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $660 when playing against.
Rays at Twins – The Rays are 5-0 since April 19, 2010 when Jeff Niemann starts on the road after a quality start for a net profit of $560. The Twins are 7-0 since July 17, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $730.
Mariners at Yankees – The Mariners are 0-11 since June 30, 2009 as a road 140+ dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-9 since August 20, 2009 when Ryan Rowland Smith starts as a road dog vs. a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Yankees are 13-0 since April 17, 2009 as a 200+ favorite vs. a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1300. The Yankees are 9-0 since June 19, 2009 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $900.