Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
Tommy Hunter (5-0, 1.98) Texas Rangers
Hunter is 5-0 on the season and the young righty was having one of his best performance of the season before settling for a no-decision against the Orioles in his last start.
Hunter struck out a season-high seven batters to only one walk but gave up a pair of runs in the seventh before turning it over to the bullpen. He threw seven-plus innings of one-run ball against the White Sox in his previous outing on July 3, an outing more indicative of his season so far.
"He's pounding the strike zone, not making mistakes in the middle of the plate and executing his pitches," Rangers manager Ron Washington said. "When you do that, you get the results he's getting. Right now he's executing very well. He's throwing strikes, keeping the ball in play. He's doing everything we'd like to see a pitcher do."
Dave Bush (4-6, 4.14) Milwaukee Brewers
Since getting knocked around for seven earned runs in only 1/3 of an inning against the Twins six weeks ago, Bush has put together six solid starts.
He is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA during that span and his last no-decision was as strong as any of his wins, allowing only one run and five hits against the Giants.
"The last month or so, I've had good command and quite honestly, I'm just feeling stronger," Bush told mlb.com. "I feel like I've kind of gotten back to the point where I was before I got hurt."
Slumping
R.A. Dickey (6-2, 2.77) New York Mets
Dickey was a sizzling 6-0 until two weeks ago, but both the Braves and Marlins used one big inning to beat the knuckleballer just before the All-Star break.
Dickey is 0-2 in his last three starts, allowing 20 hits and eight earned runs in those 18 2/3 innings. The Marlins chased him after five innings and unearned runs and the Braves hammered a pair of homers in the seventh, the first of which snapped Dickey's homerless streak at 45 1/3 innings.
"Dickey was tough. I don't think we hit a ball hard until we hit the home runs," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "He's legit. He knows where the fastball is going every time. It's in or out. It's never down the middle."
With the Giants getting their first look at Dickey, don't read too much into his recent mini-slump. The Giants are hitting just .247 against righties (compared to .315 against lefties) in their last 10.
Thursday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The second half of the baseball season resumes on Thursday with a seven-game card as the countdown towards the trade deadline and the postseason begins. Four games involve both teams in playoff contention, including Tim Lincecum and the Giants hosting the Mets. We'll focus on some of the earlier first pitches, starting with the top club in the NL East returning home off a successful road trip.
Brewers at Braves - 7:10 PM EST
Atlanta dropped nine straight games at the end of April, but those days are over for Bobby Cox's squad as they own a four-game lead in the NL East heading into a home matchup with Milwaukee. The Braves grabbed four of six against the Phillies and Mets on their recent trip, while the Brewers concluded the first half with a three-game home sweep of the Pirates.
Jair Jurrjens (1-3, 5.40 ERA) has pitched well in his two starts since getting activated off the disabled list at the end of June. Jurrjens scattered two hits and three earned runs in six innings of a no-decision at Philadelphia his last time out. The Braves managed a 6-3 victory in extra-innings, the second straight win for Atlanta when Jurrjens takes the hill. In the right-hander's lone start against the Brewers last June, Jurrjens was on the wrong side of a 4-0 shutout, despite eight strikeouts and seven innings.
The Brewers send out veteran Dave Bush (4-6, 4.14 ERA), who is coming off a solid month of starts. The righty has put together five straight quality starts, even though each of his last four outings has come at Miller Park. Bush has won each of his last two starts as an underdog against the Angels and Cubs, including a victory as a $1.70 road 'dog at Anaheim.
The Braves swept the Brew Crew at Miller Park in mid-May, outscoring Milwaukee, 28-7 in the three-game sweep. The road team is 12-4 in this series dating back to 2008, as the Brewers are 6-3 the last nine games at Turner Field.
Rangers at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST
Texas has busted out of the gate as the team to beat in the AL West, owning a 4 ½-game advantage over Los Angeles heading into the second half. The Red Sox are sitting in third place in the AL East, but possess the third-best mark in the American League.
Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22 ERA) turned in his worst start in over a month by allowing six earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 6-4 setback at Tampa Bay. The Sox have now alternated wins and losses in each of Wakefield's last seven starts, while Boston has beaten Baltimore and Los Angeles in his previous two home outings. Wakefield's career numbers against the Rangers aren't spectacular, giving up at least five earned runs in each of his last three meetings with Texas. The knuckleballer allowed six earned runs in six innings against the Rangers in mid-April, but the Sox bailed out Wakefield with a 7-6 victory.
The Rangers send out talented right-hander Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision in his last start against Baltimore. The Rangers' bullpen gave up a late one-run lead in a 6-4 setback as $2.50 home 'chalk.' The overwhelming majority of Hunter's starts have come in Arlington, with his lone road outing coming at Florida in which the 24-year old lasted 2.1 innings against the Marlins. The Rangers picked up a road win, the only start all season in which Hunter has been listed as an underdog. Hunter beat the Sox last season in Arlington as a $1.60 'dog, scattering four hits and one earned run in six innings.
The Sox picked up a pair of one-run victories over the Rangers to grab the April home set, but Texas avoided a sweep with a 3-0 shutout in the series finale. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Rangers are 8-4 against the Red Sox, including a 3-2 mark at Fenway Park.
White Sox at Twins - 8:10 PM EST
The three-horse race in the AL Central has a new leader after Chicago has pulled off eight straight victories to take a ½ game lead over Detroit. Minnesota, who led the division for the duration of the first half, has dropped eight of ten.
Since losing two of three to the woeful Indians in early June, the Sox have won 25 of 31 games, including an 11-4 mark on the road. John Danks (8-7, 3.29 ERA) is fresh off his best start of the season, a complete-game, two-hitter against the Angels, ending a two-game skid. The Sox are 0-6 in Danks' last six starts versus Minnesota, including a pair of one-run setbacks this season. Four times the southpaw has delivered a quality start in those six defeats, but Chicago tallied three runs or less in each of those games.
Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64 ERA) has not been productive over the last month, giving up at least five earned runs in four of his last five starts. The only outing in which he pitched well was a home victory over the Tigers on June 30, allowing four hits and one earned run in six innings of a 5-1 triumph. The Twins lost as a $1.75 home favorite the last time Slowey faced the Sox in May, giving up five earned runs in just 4.2 innings of a 5-2 defeat.
Minnesota has taken three of five meetings this season, as the two teams split a two-game set at Target Field two months ago. The 'under' has turned into a profitable play between these division rivals, hitting in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.
Dodgers at Cardinals - 8:15 PM EST
The rematch of last season's NLDS takes place at Busch Stadium as the Cards and Dodgers each try to make up ground in their respective divisions. St. Louis sits one game behind Cincinnati in the NL Central, while Los Angeles and Colorado are tied for second place in the NL West behind San Diego.
Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter (9-3, 3.29 ERA) looks to get back on track following losses in each of his last two outings to the Brewers and Rockies. The numbers weren't too pretty in those defeats, allowing 18 hits and 12 runs (11 earned) in just nine innings of work. Carpenter had given up 12 runs in his seven previous starts combined, as St. Louis looks to improve on the 8-2 mark in his ten home outings. The last time Carpenter faced the Dodgers in June, the Cards lost 1-0. Carpenter wasn't too blame for the defeat, giving up six hits in seven scoreless innings as the Dodgers grabbed their lone run in the eighth inning off the St. Louis bullpen.
The Dodgers send out ace Clayton Kershaw (9-4, 2.96 ERA), who struck out a season-high 12 in a 3-2 victory over the Cubs last Thursday. The three runs scored by the Dodgers was only the second instance in his last eight starts that L.A. has plated three runs or less. Kershaw is facing a Cardinals squad that is batting just .247 at home against left-handed pitching, while St. Louis is 4-4 in its previous eight home games versus southpaw starters.
The Dodgers pulled off a three-game sweep of the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine in June as Los Angeles managed a pair of one-run wins. St. Louis' best mark in any game of a series is the opener, owning a 20-9 mark.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/15
By Dan Bebe
National League
Brewers @ Braves (-155) with a total of 8.5
Prince Fielder is 2-for-2 lifetime off Jurrjens;
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-6 off Bush.
I happen to believe there's a reason this line looks so low, and that reason is Bush's recent stretch of quality starts. Bush has turned in at least 6 innings of work in 5 straight outings, and hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of those efforts. Pretty good for a guy that probably has no business putting up numbers like that. He's also 1-1 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA against the Braves, losing to Tim Hudson earlier this year despite allowing just 3 runs in 6 innings. Jurrjens is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA against the Brewers, and it seems like he's healthy again. I probably wouldn't back the Braves, even though the price looks tempting, but not sure I can trust the lowly Brewers, either. Leans: Brewers
Phillies @ Cubs (-130) with a total of N/A
Shane Victorino was 3-for-8 off Dempster with an RBI before 2010;
Derrek Lee was 5-for-11 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Ryan Theriot was 4-for-12 off Moyer before 2010.
Interestingly, both of these starters have faced the other team once, and both lost. Moyer pitched better, giving up just 2 runs in 7 innings on only 4 hits, but Tom Gorzelanny did him one better in that meeting. Dempster allowed 4 runs in 6 innings of a game his team would eventually lose 5-4 to Joe Blanton. Neither starter is coming off a particularly strong start, though I suppose you'd call Dempster the more reliable pitcher just because of his better stuff. The awful, awful Cubs shouldn't be a -130 favorite to the Phils, though, and Philly went into the Break feeling good, while the Cubs just continue to stink. Leans: Phillies
Dodgers @ Cardinals (-125) with a total of 7
Jamey Carroll was 6-for-16 off Carpenter between '05 and '09;
Matt Holliday was 4-for-10 off Kershaw before 2010;
Albert Pujols was 4-for-7 off Kershaw before 2010.
Chris Carpenter is scary-good against the Dodgers. Kershaw is nipping at his heels against the Cards. If there's one thing I often take away from Dodgers-Cardinals series, it's that St. Louis generally plays much better at home. It will be interesting to see how these teams come out of the All Star Break, since both need to make a move this second half. Kershaw outdueled Adam Wainwright in LA earlier this year, giving up 3 runs in 7 innings of a 4-3 LA win. Carpenter was not so lucky, as he went 7 shutout innings, but lost 1-0 to Hiroki Kuroda. Kershaw's strikeout numbers are really impressive, of late, but his greater number of strikes means more balls in play. The Cardinals bullpen is a little scary, but the Dodgers' road numbers make me think the Cards take the opener. Leans: Cardinals
Mets @ Giants (-180) with a total of 7
Not a ton of experience on either side of this one, as Lincecum is 0-1 with a 5.04 ERA lifetime against the Mets, but actually lowered that number with 6 innings of 2-run ball in NY earlier this year. The issue with Timmy is that he's actually been a little inconsistent this year, fluctuating between starts where he strikes out 10 in 7 innings and ones where he walks 5 in 5 frames. Dickey, for the Mets, continues to be consistently solid, though the Mets struggled offensively heading into the Break. I believe this line is right about where it should be, especially with the Giants' offense picking up right before the time off. Will it pick back up where it left off? Maybe, but I'd rather pass on this one and make a play later in this series on a lower priced line. Leans: Under
American League
Rangers (-115) @ Red Sox with a total of 9.5
Vlad Guerrero is 5-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Wakefield since '05;
Adrian Beltre is 3-for-6 off Hunter with an RBI;
Kevin Youkilis is 3-for-5 off Hunter.
The historical data suggests this one could get ugly. Tommy Hunter is 1-1 with an 11.74 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox, and Tim Wakefield is 6-11 with a 6.26 ERA lifetime against the Rangers. Will anyone get anyone else out, reliably? Well, Hunter's 2.34 ERA this year suggests he may have turned a corner, and Boston's slew of injuries certainly make them a little less formidable than last year. Wakefield is almost guaranteed to give up 3-4 runs to a good-hitting team like Texas, so the question is whether Hunter can get it right. Texas was slumping heading into the Break, and I just can't believe Boston is a home dog to any team not named the "Yankees." I'm struggling here, but I happen to believe the oddsmakers have reasons for what they do. Leans: Rangers
White Sox @ Twins (-110) with a total of 8.5
Alexei Ramirez was 4-for-10 with 2 RBI off Slowey before 2010;
Alex Rios was 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Slowey before 2010;
A.J. Pierzynski was 3-for-8 off Slowey before 2010;
Michael Cuddyer was 16-for-30 with 5 HR and 11 RBI off Danks before 2010;
Jason Kubel was 7-for-22 with a HR and 9 RBI off Danks before 2010;
Joe Mauer was batting .345 off Danks since '05;
Justin Morneau has 3 HR and 9 RBI off Danks since '05.
And yet, for all the player numbers, Danks has given up just 4 earned runs in 13 innings against the Twins this year, both games the White Sox lost. It would seem that Danks' 4-6, 5.03 career mark against the Twins might be a little inflated, considering how well the White Sox are pitching this year, and the Twins recent struggles. Slowey is 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA against the Whte Sox, and allowed 5 runs in 4.2 innings against them earlier this year. I know Slowey is a better pitcher at home, and Danks is worse on the road, but with the way the teams played going into the Break, don't we need to see the Twins get things going before we can really trust them? Leans: White Sox
Mariners @ Angels with a total of N/A
We don't have a line on this one, yet, as the Angels took their sweet time selecting a starter to open the "2nd half." I would imagine the Angels will be a decent favorite, so I'm not planning on spending a ton of my energies powering into this one. Fister looked like he was regaining some confidence in his last start before the Break, so perhaps he rolls that into a start against the Angels, here, against whom he is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA. Santana has faced the Mariners twice this year, and was great once and bad the other. I don't like big question marks, though I suppose that, given his recent work, you'd be wise to expect a decent game out of Santana. The Angels need wins, too, and they need them quick. I just wonder if the added pressure helps or hurts them. Leans: None
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Mariners at Angels – The Mariners are 0-5 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $510 when playing against.
Brewers at Braves – The Brewers are 7-0 since April 25, 2009 on the road after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $880. The Brewers are 0-6 since April 17, 2009 when David Bush starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since April 16, 2010 at home when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $910. The Braves are 0-6 since July 03, 2008 when Jair Jurrjens starts at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Dodgers at Cardinals – The Dodgers are 6-0 since June 21, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts on the road after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $650. The Dodgers are 5-0 since April 21, 2010 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $500.
Phillies at Cubs – The Phillies are 5-0 since May 05, 2010 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $590. The Phillies are 0-5 since May 27, 2010 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $515 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-4 since April 29, 2010 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $525 when playing against.
Mets at Giants – The Mets are 0-6 since June 24, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $695 when playing against.
Rangers at Red Sox – The Rangers are 0-5 since June 25, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $915 when playing against. The Rangers are 0-4 since July 02, 2010 after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $880 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 11, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $600
White Sox at Twins – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 10, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $940. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 09, 2010 when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $915. The Twins are 8-0 since April 12, 2010 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $825.