Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
As the All-Star Break fades away and the second half begins, there are plenty of betting options on Thursday night. Despite the American League card having only two games, the National League has six games on its card, giving the gaming public opportunities to win before the weekend. Several division matchups highlight the slate, including a pair of showdowns inside the NL East.
Phillies at Marlins (7:10 PM EST)
The World Champion Phillies have caught fire at the right time, winning nine of ten on their most recent homestand. Philadelphia heads south to Florida to battle a Marlins team that plays four home games before hitting the road for a pair of series at Los Angeles and San Diego. The Fish just returned from the West Coast, splitting six games with the Giants and Diamondbacks.
The one pitcher the Marlins do not want to see is southpaw Jamie Moyer. The Phillies ageless lefty has owned Florida over the years, as Philadelphia is 12-2 in Moyer's last 14 starts against the Marlins. Luckily for Florida, one of those victories came earlier this season in Philadelphia, a 5-3 win started by Chris Volstad.
The tall Marlins righty gets the ball tonight, trying to capitalize on his first career complete game his last time out at San Francisco. Volstad has struggled at home this season, with Florida going 3-6 in his nine starts at Landshark Stadium. The 'over' has been a profitable play for Volstad at home, hitting seven of nine times. Volstad has delivered two quality starts against the Phillies this season, splitting the two outings.
The Phillies are 4-2 against the Marlins this season, as the road team has won five of the six meetings. LVSC has opened the Fish as $1.25 favorites, with the total set at 9.
Mets at Braves (7:10 PM EST)
Two sub-.500 division rivals meet up at Turner Field, as both teams are hanging around the Wild Card race. The Mets and Braves are both banged up offensively, sending out two veteran pitchers off wins in their last start.
Derek Lowe rebounded from a rough start at Washington to beat Colorado on the road, 4-1. Following a 7-3 team record in Lowe's first ten starts as a Brave, Atlanta is just 3-6 in the right-hander's last nine outings. The Braves are 5-4 in Lowe's nine home favorite starts, but four of those victories have come by just one run.
Oliver Perez makes his second start after a lengthy DL stint. The Mets lefty is coming off a five-inning effort in a home victory over the Dodgers. Perez was anything but spectacular, walking seven and striking out only two, but managed the win. The Mets have taken three of Perez's last four starts against the Braves, dating back to 2007.
Jerry Manuel's club is 3-2 in the season series this year, while the Mets are 2-0 at Turner Field. The Braves are a substantial $1.65 home favorite, with the total listed at 8 ½, according to LVSC.
Angels at Athletics (10:05 PM EST)
The AL West division race was led by the upstart Texas Rangers for the duration of the first half, until the Angels pulled off a series sweep of the Yankees to take over the reigns of the division. The A's, meanwhile, are coming off a 3-3 finish on their road trip at Boston and Tampa Bay after dropping two of three at Cleveland.
These two teams meet up for the first time in over two months, as Ervin Santana looks to regain his form from last season. Santana, who won 16 games in 2008, is just 1-5 in eight starts this season, owning an ERA of 7.81. If there's one time to actually back Santana, it's against Oakland. The Angels righty has won eight of his last ten starts against the A's, with every start being a quality outing.
Dallas Braden remains one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. The A's southpaw is 7-7, but owns an ERA of 3.12. Braden is coming off a pair of wins over solid opponents, the Tigers and Rays. The Angels have beaten Braden twice this season, despite both starts being quality appearances.
The Angels have been solid recently in series openers, winning 10 of their past 11. The A's, meanwhile, have hit the 'under' in 12 of their past 14 against right-handed starters. The Halos are 3-2 in the season series, while four games have been won by the road team.
LVSC has opened up Oakland as a $1.40 favorite, while the total is listed at 8 ½.
Astros at Dodgers (10:10 PM EST)
Los Angeles returns home following a nine-game road trip, in which Joe Torre's club went 6-3. The Dodgers come back to Chavez Ravine for a ten-game homestand, which begins with the feisty Astros.
Houston sits right at .500 in the NL Central, 3 ½ games behind St. Louis to start the second half. The Astros will send out lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who is having a career season. Rodriguez, despite an 8-6 record, ranks 8th in the NL in ERA (2.96), and 9th in the NL in strikeouts (106). Rodriguez has always been known as a great play at home and a bad play on the road, but that has changed this season. The Astros have won five of Rodriguez's nine away starts, while he owns a respectable road ERA of 3.83.
Randy Wolf, the king of the no-decision, goes for his fifth win of the season. The Dodgers lefty, who spent the last half of 2008 with the Astros, has yet to officially pick up a home victory this season. Thanks to plenty of late wins by the Dodgers, L.A. is 7-2 in Wolf's nine home starts, but the southpaw has one home decision to his name, an early June loss to the Phillies.
The Astros took two of three from the Dodgers earlier this season at Minute Maid Park, but the lone defeat went to Rodriguez, who was outdueled by Chad Billingsley, 2-0. The Dodgers are a $1.40 home 'chalk,' with the total listed at 7 ½, according to LVSC.
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Thursday's streaking and slumping starters
By Covers.com
Streaking
Dallas Braden (Oakland Athletics)
Braden (7-7, 3.12 ERA) has delivered a quality start in nine of 10 games since May 16. During that span, he has allowed no more than three earned runs in a game and lasted at least six innings in all but one start. He also yielded two or fewer runs in eight straight starts.
In two starts this month, Braden has given up just three runs in 13 innings. Braden’s most recent start was a 7-2 win over the Rays in which he allowed only two runs on five hits in six innings. He missed time earlier this month to be with his ailing grandmother.
"These guys are absolutely throwing the snot out of the ball and you just want to go out there and do your job," Braden said of the team’s pitching staff to the Associated Press. "As a whole we want to put together a nice body of work and I think we're kind of on the right track to doing so."
Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)
A month ago, Bailey would have thought his chances of solidifying a spot in the Reds rotation to be a long shot. But after turning in three straight strong starts, the 23-year-old has muscled himself back into the team’s plans.
Bailey (1-0, 5.16 ERA) has allowed just seven runs in his past 18 1-3 innings, including no more than three in each of his previous three starts since being recalled from Triple-A Louisville on June 27. In Bailey’s most recent start, a 3-2 loss at Philadelphia, the right-hander allowed two runs in six innings. He struke out six and didn't hand out any free passes in the outing as well.
The improved control has been the key for Bailey. He has 11 strikeouts against just two walks in his past two starts after issuing seven base on balls in a game earlier this year.
Slumping
Ervin Santana (Los Angeles Angels)
Santana probably should have stayed on the DL.
The right-hander has been hammered in his past two outings, allowing 11 runs in just nine innings. In his most recent start, an 8-1 loss to Texas, Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) allowed five runs on seven hits in four innings. The Rangers took advantage of Santana's location problems by tagging him with three long balls.
"It's simple pitching,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters. “It's getting ahead and putting guys away and tonight he struggled with that. Pitchers are going to go through stages like that, but they still find ways to win. That's what Ervin is searching for."
Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)
The right-hander has been consistent for Chicago this season. However, that was before July.
Harden (5-6, 5.47 ERA) was roughed up in each of his previous two games – an 11-2 loss to Milwaukee and an 8-3 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers lit him up for seven runs on eight hits in only two innings, the shortest outing of his career. Against the Cardinals, Harden gave up four runs on seven hits and walked four in just five innings.
When asked to describe his recent performance, Harden had only two words: “Batting practice.”
Philadelphia (48-38) at Florida (46-44)
The red-hot Phillies begin a four-game series at Dolphin Stadium, and they’ll hand the ball to ageless veteran Jamie Moyer (8-6, 5.99 ERA), while the Marlins counter with young Chris Volstad (6-8, 4.44).
Philadelphia went into the All-Star break on a five-game winning streak, which was part of a 9-1 homestand. The hot run came on the heels of a 4-14 slump, and the defending champs now lead the N.L. East by four games over Florida. The Phillies are on hot streaks of 13-6 in divisional play, 47-23 after a victory and 21-10 after an off day, but they’ve lost six of eight on the road, including five straight against right-handed starters.
The Marlins pounded Arizona 8-1 on Sunday to end a seven-game road trip with a 3-4 mark. They’ve lost six of seven after an off day and five of six against winning teams, but Florida is also on positive runs of 10-1 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East, 12-5 versus southpaw starters and 4-1 on Thursday.
Philadelphia is on a 6-2 roll against the Marlins (4-2 this year), including winning five straight games in Florida. In fact, the visitor has taken nine of the last 11 in this rivalry.
Moyer is 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill despite a 4.84 ERA, and he gave up six runs on eight hits in five innings in his most recent start against Cincinnati on July 9, winning 9-6 at home. The 46-year-old lefty is 4-2 with a 5.08 ERA in his eight road outings.
In addition to winning Moyer’s last four starts, Philadelphia is 11-5 in his last 16 on the road, 33-11 in his last 44 against the N.L. East and 8-3 in his last 11 on Thursday. Also, Moyer is 12-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 14 career starts against the Marlins, including 7-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven career trips to South Beach. This year, Moyer is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Fish.
Volstad is coming off the best start of his young career, tossing his first complete game in a 7-0 rout of the Giants in San Francisco. The right-hander scattered five hits, struck out six and didn’t walk a batter as he won for just the second time in his last eight starts. Volstad is 3-5 with a 5.15 ERA in nine home starts and 2-6 with a 5.20 ERA in night games.
With Volstad pitching, Florida is mired in funks of 2-6 overall, 2-6 at home, 3-8 in night games and 1-4 in series openers, but it has won five of his last six starts against the N.L. East. Volstad has faced the Phillies five times, going 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA, including 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in two games this year (one home, one road).
The Phillies carry “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-0 against the N.L. East, 11-4-2 on grass, 17-8-2 on Thursday, 8-2 with Moyer on the mound and 4-1 with Moyer working on the road. The under is also 7-2-1 in Florida’s last 10 N.L. East contests, 4-1 in its last five against winning teams and 5-0-1 in its last six against lefty starters. Conversely, the over is 5-1 in Volstad’s last six home starts and 53-23-3 in the last 79 Phillies-Marlins clashes in South Beach, including 3-0 this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Houston (44-44) at L.A. Dodgers (56-32)
A battle of left-handers is on tap at Dodger Stadium, with Los Angeles sending Randy Wolf (4-3, 3.45) to the mound against the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez (8-6, 2.96) in the opener of a four-game series.
Houston got its record to .500 at the All-Star break courtesy of a 12-6 run over the past 18 games, and it has won six of nine road games, including a 4-3 mark on its most recent trip which also was on the West Coast at San Diego and San Francisco. The Astros are also on runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 18-7 against the N.L. West, 4-1 against lefty starts and 4-1 in series openers, but they’ve lost 13 of 16 after an off day.
The Dodgers, who continue to own baseball’s best record, capped a 6-3 road trip with Sunday’s 7-4 victory at Milwaukee. Los Angeles, which won its first 13 home games to start the season, are 48-21 at Dodger Stadium dating to last season (28-13 this year) and are on further positive streaks of 21-8 at home against lefty starters, 7-3 on Thursday, 4-0 after a day off and they’ve won six consecutive series openers.
Houston took two of three from the Dodgers in Texas earlier this season, and they’ve won six of their last eight in Dodger Stadium.
Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts – all Astros victories – including 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his last two outings. In his most recent start against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Rodriguez delivered a complete-game 5-0 victory, allowing five hits and one walk while matching his season high with 11 strikeouts. It was just the second complete game of his career.
Rodriguez dominated the Padres in a 7-2 victory in his last road start, but is just 4-4 in nine outings on the highway despite a 3.83 ERA. He’s also 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against L.A. That includes a 2-0 home loss on April 23 when the lefty yielded just one run and five hits in six innings.
Wolf dominated the Mets in an 11-2 road win a week ago, allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings as he picked up his first victory since May 28. Wolf has given up two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and he’s posted a 2.45 ERA in his last three trips to the hill.
The Dodgers are 9-3 in Wolf’s last 12 starts overall, 13-3 in his last 16 at home, 7-1 in his last eight against the N.L. Central and 4-1 in his last five on Thursday. The 32-year-old has just one decision (a loss) in nine home starts this season, posting a 4.04 ERA, and he’s 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 career starts against the Astros, including a no-decision in L.A.’s 6-5 loss in Houston on April 22.
The over is 8-3-1 in Houston’s last 12 against the N.L. West, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 9-4-1 against winning teams, 38-17-1 after an off day and 42-19-2 in series openers. Also, the Dodgers have stayed low in their last five home games, but the over is 4-1 in their last five overall and 5-2 in their last seven against southpaw starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, July 16
Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EDT). The Indians host the Mariners in baseball's first game after the All-Star break. Cleveland's Cliff Lee (4-9, 3.47 ERA), the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, is scheduled to face fellow left-hander Garrett Olson (3-2, 4.42).
STARS
Tuesday
-Carl Crawford, Rays, robbed Brad Hawpe of a go-ahead homer and took home All-Star MVP honors in the American League's 4-3 victory over the NL.
-Mariano Rivera, Yankees, pitched a perfect ninth inning in the AL's 4-3 victory to earn his record fourth All-Star save, breaking a tie with Dennis Eckersley.
-Adam Jones, Orioles, hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the eighth inning to lead the American League to a 4-3 win in the All-Star game.
-Prince Fielder, Brewers, had a pinch-hit RBI double in the National League's 4-3 loss to the AL in the All-Star game.
ALL AL AGAIN
Carl Crawford pulled back a home run with a leaping grab an inning before Curtis Granderson tripled and scored the tiebreaking run in the eighth, giving the American League a 4-3 victory over the NL in the All-Star game on Tuesday night at the new Busch Stadium. The AL is 12-0-1 since its 1996 defeat at Philadelphia - the longest unbeaten streak in All-Star history.
PRESIDENT'S PITCH
President Barack Obama threw out the ceremonial first pitch at the All-Star game, barely reaching the plate. St. Louis Cardinals star Albert Pujols helped the president, moving up on the plate and reaching out to scoop the low toss. Obama began the day by greeting Wimbledon champion Serena Williams at the White House, then picked up Hall of Famer Willie Mays in Michigan for the flight to St. Louis.
SPEAKING
"It was definitely probably the best catch I ever made.'' - Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford on robbing Colorado slugger Brad Hawpe of a go-ahead homer in the seventh inning of the American League's 4-3 victory over the NL in the All-Star game in St. Louis.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
By SportsPic
A battle of left-handers take to respective mounds Friday at Dodger Stadium, with Los Angeles sending Randy Wolf (4-3, 3.45) to the bump against the Astros Wandy Rodriguez (8-6, 2.96).
Dodgers with baseball’s best record at 56-32 including 28-13 at home are a solid 9-3 in Wolf’s last twelve starts, 13-3 last sixteen at Dodger Stadium with the southpaw.
Stros 44-44 overall, 20-21 on the road have won their last four w/Rodriguez who is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA over the span including 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his last two outings.
Stros have a 2-1 edge in play this season (at Houston) and enter 6-2 last eight visit to Dodger Stadium.
Trends to keep in mind, Stros are 8-20 last 28 as an underdog of +110 to +150, 2-5 last seven opening a series w/Rodriguez while Dodgers come in 21-8 L29 home swinging away at a left-handed starter
Marlins welcome Phillies
By SBGGlobal.com
Philadelphia Phillies (48-38) at Florida Marlins (46-44)
Thursday, 7:05 pm Eastern
SBG Global Opening Line: Marlins -126 , Total 9 Flat
The Florida Marlins will try and prove they are worthy of staying in the playoff race as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in the first of a four-game series on Thursday. The Marlins are four games back of the Phillies in the National League East so this series will be a good test for them.
SBG Global reports that early MLB Betting has the public taking Marlins at Home.
The Marlins send Chris Volstad to the mound on Thursday while the Phillies go with Jamie Moyer. Volstad is 6-8 on the season with a 4.44 ERA while Moyer is 8-6 with a 5.99 ERA. Moyer is 12-2 in his career with a 3.06 ERA in 14 career starts against the Marlins.
Volstad is coming off his best start in which he tossed a five hit shutout against the San Francisco Giants. He is 1-0 against the Phillies this season allowing five runs in 13 2/3 innings. The Marlins are counting on Volstad and their other young pitchers to keep them in the race. If Volstad and Josh Johnson continue to pitch well and Hanley Ramirez continues his hot hitting then the Marlins could be a factor down the stretch. What will be interesting to watch in the next few weeks is whether or not the Marlins add a couple of players to stay in the Wild Card race.
Here are the MLB Betting stats for Thursday’s game. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Phillies are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. the National League East.
The Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Phillies are 4-0 in Moyer’s last 4 starts. The Phillies are 11-5 in Moyer’s last 16 road starts. The Phillies are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Florida. The Phillies are 7-0 in Moyers last 7 road starts vs. the Marlins.
SBG Global Current Line: Marlins - 120 , Total 10 Over - 115
The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. The Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the National League East. The Marlins are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Marlins are 2-6 in Volstad’s last 8 home starts.
The Under is 8-3 in the Phillies last 11 overall. The Under is 8-2 in Moyer’s last 10 starts overall. The Over is 5-1 in Volstad’s last 6 home starts.