Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres (11-4, 2.48 ERA)
A huge part of the Padres’ surprise success in 2010 has been the impressive play of Latos. The right hander has pitched his way into Cy Young talks, especially his recent performances. Latos is 6-0 in his last seven starts, including winning three straight heading into Thursday’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He returned from 16 days on the DL in his last trip to the bump, giving up two runs on seven hits in six innings of work for a 9-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday.
Vin Mazzaro, Oakland Athletics (6-2, 3.45 ERA)
The A’s young righty hasn’t tasted defeat in five games, going 4-0 with a slim 2.12 ERA in that span. He has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 10 starts this season and is coming off a solid appearance against the Chicago White Sox last weekend. He went six innings, giving up only two runs on three hits for a 10-2 win Saturday.
Slumping
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (4-8, 5.55 ERA)
The Tigers righty didn’t pitch terrible in his last trip to the mound, putting in a quality start against the Toronto Blue Jays. But, Porcello did walk four batters and missed out on getting his first MLB win since May 23. He was called up from the minors to pitch in a doubleheader versus the Cleveland Indians two weeks ago, giving up only one run on six hits in eight innings of work. However, he was dealt another no-decision in a 2-1 loss. His control has been off and on since returning to the bigs.
Ubaldo Jimenez (15-2, 2.75 ERA)
Jimenez was once a shoe-in to win the NL Cy Young. But after his last four starts, the Rockies righthander has fallen off his record pace. Jimenez is just 1-1 in that span after allowing 18 total runs. In his last appearance, he was knocked around for six runs on only three hits while walking six batters in just two innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Debuting
Dustin Moseley, New York Yankees (0-0, 4.22 ERA)
The injury to Andy Pettitte has forced the Yankees to hand the ball to 28-year-old Moseley for Thursday’s game against the Cleveland Indians. Moseley has worked exclusively out of the bullpen since joining the big-league club in early July. He got in just under five innings of work against the Kansas City Royals this weekend, giving up only one hit while striking out and walking one batter. He is 8-7 with a 5.41 ERA during his MLB career, the past four years spent with the Los Angeles Angels.
Joe Saunders, Arizona Diamondbacks (6-10, 4.62 ERA)
Saunders gets thrown to the wolves in his first start for the D-backs. The lefthander was dealt from Los Angeles earlier this week and will now face one of the toughest lineups in baseball. Saunders did leave L.A. on a high note, going seven innings and allowing only one run on seven hits in a 1-0 loss to the Texas Rangers. He’s faced the Phillies only once before, allowing two runs on five hits over seven innings during interleague action while with the Angels back in June 2008.
Thursday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday getaway card gives bettors several early opportunities to cash in on the diamond. The Braves look to wrap up their series with a win at Washington, while the Rays try to keep the Tigers' bats quiet at Tropicana Field. We'll start in the Big Apple with the Mets and Cardinals closing out their series at Citi Field.
Cardinals at Mets - 12:10 PM EST
Following the battle of southpaws on Tuesday night between Johan Santana and Jaime Garcia, a pair of right-handers takes the mound for the series finale in Flushing. The Mets drew first blood in Monday's opener with an 8-2 thrashing of the Redbirds, chasing Adam Wainwright after five innings. St. Louis and Cincinnati keep going back and forth atop the NL Central, as the Cards come into Wednesday's action a half-game behind the Reds.
The Mets send out R.A. Dickey (6-4, 2.55 ERA), who looks for his first win since June 23 against the Tigers. Dickey suffered a hip injury in Sunday's 1-0 loss to the Dodgers, as the knuckleballer scattered two hits in 5.2 scoreless innings. His numbers wouldn't necessarily reflect a six-start winless streak, putting together four quality outings in this stretch. Dickey can only do so much, as the Mets have averaged one run/game in his previous four starts, while all four games finished 'under' the total.
Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) has compiled one quality start in seven outings for the Cardinals, while St. Louis is 2-3 in his five road starts. Hawksworth doesn't go deep into games, as the righty has tossed six innings only twice, but the Cards have supplied him with five runs/game in his seven starts.
The Mets are 6-2 the last eight home meetings with the Cardinals, while New York has plated at least six runs six times in this span. St. Louis is 3-8 the previous 11 road games, including a 1-5 mark as an away underdog.
Tigers at Rays - 12:10 PM
Tampa Bay is starting to pick up the winning, while trying to keep pace with New York in the AL East. The Tigers, meanwhile, are headed in the opposite direction with a 3-11 mark the last 14 games to fall four games behind the Twins in the AL Central race. Detroit's offense has faltered on the highway recently by scoring two runs or less in six of the previous seven road contests.
Cy Young front-runner David Price (13-5, 2.90 ERA) looks for consecutive victories for the first time since June 15, as the Rays' southpaw is coming off a road win at Cleveland his last start. Price's numbers would dictate the top pitcher's award in the American League, while owning a 6-1 mark at the Trop to go along with eight quality starts at home. Price beat the Tigers in his lone career start against the Tigers, a 3-1 victory at Comerica Park last August.
The sophomore slump continues for Tigers' right-hander Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.55 ERA), who lost his previous outing against the Blue Jays by a 3-2 count. The 21-year old hasn't won a start since May 23 at Los Angeles, a span of seven outings. Porcello hasn't exactly pitched poorly in his two starts since getting recalled from Triple-A Toledo, allowing four earned runs in 14 innings. However, the slumping Detroit offense has tallied three runs in losses to Cleveland and Toronto as short favorites in Porcello's last two trips to the mound.
The 'under' has hit in six of Detroit's last seven road games, while cashing in 10 of the previous 12 overall. July has been a good month for Tampa Bay, winning 16 of 22 games this month, including an 8-1 mark at home.
Braves at Nationals - 12:35 PM EST
The leaders of the NL East have hit a bump in the road with losses in three of their last four games, as the Braves try to grab a daytime victory over the Nationals. Washington shut out Atlanta in Tuesday's opener, despite rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg getting scratched prior to the game.
Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.48 ERA) looks to end a disastrous run over the last month, as the Braves have dropped five of his previous six outings. Lowe received a no-decision in Friday's loss at Florida, but it was the third consecutive start that the righty didn't pitch past the sixth inning. The road has not been kind to Lowe this season, with the Braves winning just four of his 11 starts on the highway. To make matters worse, Lowe has beaten the Nats only twice in his last six meetings with Washington dating back to last season.
The Nationals will send out southpaw Scott Olsen (2-2, 3.77 ERA) for the first time since May 21, as the ex-Marlin recovers from a shoulder injury. Olsen started the season strong with underdog wins against Florida and Los Angeles, but the Nats lost each of his last three starts prior to his placement on the DL. The left-hander has seen plenty of the Braves throughout his short career, as his teams have beaten Atlanta in four of the last five games at home.
Atlanta owns a 5-9 mark during road games during the day, while Washington has lost six of its last seven home matinee contests. The 'over' has been a profitable play for the Nationals at home recently, cashing in seven of the previous nine.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/29
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals @ Mets (-140) with a total of 8
This matchup of starting pitchers looks wildly lopsided, and with the way the Mets play at home, and Dickey's continued success in the face of all naysayers, I find it hard to find good reasons to play the Cards. Hawksworth has walked at least 3 batters in every start he's made except 1, he has just 1 quality start in 7 tries, and he's coming off a 4.1 inning stinker against the Cubbies. Dickey just keeps rolling along. The Cards lineup has enough pop where a knuckler might be just what they need to wake up, but at the same time, Dickey has made, really, just one bad start all year, and it came in Puerto Rico. He seems pretty comfortable in the states. Truthfully, if this game weren't at noon, I'd be more inclined to claim a lean on the Mets. As it stands, these day games can be a real pain.
Braves (-135) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5
I'd say there's a pretty darn good reason this line is pretty reasonable. Or maybe a couple reasons, come to think of it. Lowe didn't look good in his one start against Washington, this year, and though his career numbers against them aren't bad (6-5, 3.86 ERA), Christian Guzman and Nyjer Morgan have given him a hard time, and Lowe hasn't had a quality start in any of his last 3 appearances, so he's not really on his game. On top of that, the Braves are struggling to get it done on the road. Olsen, meanwhile, hasn't pitched in months, but was actually off and running on a solid early part to his season. And based on what we've seen from guys coming off the DL, they have one good start on adrenaline, then drop off. I happen to think Washington is a live dog. I'm not sold on betting them, but I wouldn't take the Braves.
Pirates @ Rockies (-290) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Ubaldo has been struggling, but he bounces back here, and I wouldn't touch it.
Marlins @ Giants (-150) with a total of 8
There's probably a little line inflation, here, since Bumgarner is definitely good, and he'll have a nice Major League career, but probably not 2.43 ERA good. This game is interesting, if only because Bumgarner has made 5 straight starts on the road. He's keeping hits pretty low, and though he's not a big-time strikeout guy, AT&T Park is a nice place to pitch your home games. I will note, this total seems a little high, considering Alex Sanabia and Jonathan Sanchez sported a total of 8 in yesterday's game, and the first two contests had totals of 6 and 7, and I might argue both starters in this game are better than both, yesterday. Time to see how the money comes in, but with the side this high, that total grabs my attention, for sure.
Dodgers @ Padres (-140) with a total of 6.5
I guess the question in this one, a late afternoon game on the West coast, is whether either team will ever score a run? I can't believe that 6.5 actually looks high to me on the total, but with the way these guys have thrown on the year, for Latos, or lately, for Padilla, if this game has more than 4 runs in the 7th inning I'll be blown away. The Dodgers have been winning a ton of low-scoring games, or at the very least, playing a ton of them, and Petco is notorious for those. Obviously, I wish this line was at 7, but goodness. Padilla is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA against the Padres, and is on a run of 6 straight quality starts. Latos is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Dodgers, but hasn't faced them this year. The Padres are trying to go easy on their young gun, so he probably won't go more than 6-7 innings, if that, but that Padres pen isn't a dropoff, at all. Considering the number of runs, too, you have to think that a big dog is at least a value play.
D'backs @ Phillies (-170) with a total of 9.5
I was all set to drop the "out of price" line, but then I was struck with the idea of an AL pitcher heading to the National League, and facing a bunch of guys, not necessarily for the first time, but maybe the 2nd time, and first in a while. Raul Ibanez has hit Saunders hard, and Placido Polanco has a few ABs, but otherwise, Saunders has the edge, and is 1-0 against the Phillies over his career. Kendrick has no record against Arizona, but does sport an ERA of 6.23. I know the Phils are streaking, so you'd have to have some significant stones to back the D'backs (and yes, that was a terrible, short-lived Diamondbacks "theme song" a couple years back; I kid you not, check it out, it was awful), but I wouldn't dare touch the Phils against a cat making his first NL start.
American League
Tigers @ Rays (-245) with a total of 8
Out of price, out of mind.
Yankees (-150) @ Indians with a total of 8
I'm getting tired of being disappointed with Talbot. I thought we had a sweet underdog the last time he pitched, he struck out 5 in the first 2 innings, sailed right along, and then all of a sudden, the wheels came off, and that's plagued him a bit. Talbot has had so many solid outings that are 1 terrible inning away from being gems, and the Yankees are definitely a team that can put up a crooked number if a pitcher lets his guard down. I know this looks like a short line, but the Indians are getting some credit, and Moseley is one of the few guys the Yankees could put on the hill that won't drive a ton of money. The Yankees, believe it or not, are not a bad deal.
Athletics @ Rangers (-200) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Yeah, this one I went through with - Mazzaro has been solid, but Texas is just a tad strong to consider this big dog.
Orioles @ Royals (-140) with a total of 9.5
I still find it interesting that Davies is one of the biggest money makers in the entire League, at +9 units. Remarkable, really. That being said, he's 2-1 with a 6.65 ERA against the Orioles in his career, even though the current crop hasn't seen much of him or really hit him too hard. Davies went 6 innings of 2-run ball against Baltimore in a road win back on May 17, so he's taken care of them once already, this year. Matusz has had a wildly inconsistent first full year, and his 3-11 record are both indicative of pitching for an awful team, and also having some downright ugly performances. I'm horrified of backing Matusz, especially with the way the Royals can collect base hits against lefties, but at the same time, should Davies ever be a -140 favorite?
Mariners @ White Sox (-165) with a total of 8.5
I wrote down the names and line, and was all set to talk about how the Mariners are a nice value at this price, and then I looked at the numbers. Garcia is coming off an horrid start, and I love fading a pitcher trending down, but I generally don't like fading a pitcher coming off one of his worst starts of the year, especially a veteran. Garcia is in a trademark bounceback spot, as his arm is fully rested, and on top of that, the Mariners can't hit to save their lives. David Pauley has gotten off to a decent run as a starter, but to no one's surprise, he doesn't have a win to show for it. Seattle has been a huge disappointment, and I'm going to go ahead and put a large portion of the blame on Chone Figgins. Did anyone really think this guy was going to move from Anaheim and completely forget how to play baseball? His speed seems to be down, his excitement is gone, he can't hit, and the Mariners should just sell low and get rid of his bad attitude. And this is a roster with Milton Bradley on it! Heck, while you're at it, dump Jose Lopez, too. Just blow things up, keep Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez, and call up your triple-A team for the rest of the roster spots.
Tips and Trends
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Cardinals: St. Louis very well could have had their best win of the season last night, as they showed the type of resolve that championship caliber teams possess. St. Louis is in a dogfight with the Reds for the National League Central division crown. St. Louis is 56-45 SU this year, including 22-29 SU on the road. St. Louis is -4.75 and -8.59 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Blake Hawksworth will take the mound today, as he is 4-6 with an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.81 this year. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 3-8 in their last 11 road games overall. The Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 1-10 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cardinals are 4-0 last 4 games during game 3 of a series.
The Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - 3B David Freese (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Mets (-140, O/U 8): The Mets lost a heartbreaker yesterday, as they clawed back from an early 0-6 deficit before losing in extra innings to the Cardinals. New York has lost 7 of their past 10 games, and are now only 1 game over .500 at 51-50 SU. New York has fallen 7.5 games behind the National League East division lead, and quite possibly could be sellers at the trading deadline. The Mets are +0.36 and -19.95 units both SU and ATS respectively this year. P Michael Pelfrey will make the start today, as he is 10-5 with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.51 this year. The Mets are 27-11 in their last 38 home games overall. The Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 games against a right-handed starter. New York is 1-5 in their last 6 games during game 3 of a series. The Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. New York is 10-2 in Pelfrey's last 12 starts against the National League Central. The Mets are 9-4 in Pelfrey's last 13 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Mets are 15-6 last 21 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (concussion) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Mariners: It's been a long season for Seattle, as they have the 2nd worst record in the American League at 39-63 SU. Seattle has been atrocious on the road this year, going 15-35 SU. The Mariners are -24.59 and -13.38 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P David Pauley will look to get his first win of the season tonight, as he is 0-2 with an ERA of 2.18 and a WHIP of 1.16 this year. The Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. Seattle is 16-38 in their last 54 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Mariners are 9-23 in their last 32 road games against a right-handed starter. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games against the American League Central. Seattle is 0-6 in their last 6 Thursday games overall.
Mariners are 12-39 last 51 games as a road underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Key Injuries - 3B Jose Lopez (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
White Sox (-175, O/U 8.5): Chicago simply keeps finding ways to win, whether it's their solid pitching staff or their timely hitting. Chicago is 56-44 SU this year, including 30-19 SU at home. The White Sox are +10.91 and +5.59 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. P Freddy Garcia will take the mound tonight, looking to bounce back from a rare implosion in his last start. Garcia is 9-4 this year, with an ERA of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.44. The White Sox are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Chicago is 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the American League West. Chicago is 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Chicago is 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 starts against a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 12-2 in Garcia's last 14 starts against the American League West. Chicago is 6-2 in Garcia's last 8 starts during game 4 of a series.
White Sox are 8-1 last 9 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against the American League West.
Key Injuries - 3B Mark Teahen (finger) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Marlins at Giants – The Marlins are 0-5 since April 21, 2009 when Anibal Sanchez starts on the road when the bullpen allowed at least three runs yesterday for a net profit of $535 when playing against. The Giants are 8-0 since August 08, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800. The Giants are 8-0 since July 29, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $800.
Yankees at Indians – The Yankees are 11-0 since May 31, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $1100.
Cardinals at Mets – The Cardinals are 0-9 since July 11, 2009 as a road dog after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Mets are 8-0 since April 18, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $800. The Mets are 0-6 since June 28, 2010 when R.A. Dickey starts for a net profit of $615 when playing against.
Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 0-6 since June 14, 2009 when Derek Lowe starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The Braves are 0-6 since May 15, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $925 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-9 since May 16, 2010 as a dog after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Phillies – The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since May 02, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since April 16, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $905 when playing against. The Phillies are 6-0 since May 05, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $650. The Phillies are 0-4 since October 01, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $786 when playing against.
Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 10-0 since May 05, 2010 after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1065. The Rangers are 9-0 since April 22, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $980.
Tigers at Rays – The Tigers are 0-12 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Rays are 7-0 since May 07, 2010 when David Price starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.
Pirates at Rockies – The Rockies are 6-0 since July 22, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $600.
Orioles at Royals – The Orioles are 0-12 since August 09, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Orioles are 4-0 since June 26, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $750. The Royals are 4-0 since July 02, 2010 when Kyle Davies starts in July for a net profit of $605.
Mariners at White Sox – The White Sox are 10-0 since June 25, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $1035. The White Sox are 7-0 since June 15, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $790.