Thursday's Afternoon Action
By Chris David
Gamblers have four days left before the All-Star break to get down on the diamond. Thursday’s slate offers up a quartet of afternoon games to wager on and three of the four battles feature road favorites. Let’s take a closer look at the contests.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (12:05 p.m. EDT)
The Blue Jays and Rays have squared off four times this year and both teams have left the fireworks at home. The ‘under’ has cashed in all four games, fairly easily too. This afternoon, most wouldn’t expect a lot more runs, especially when the Blue Jays send Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.79 ERA) to the hill. Surprisingly, the Jays have watched the ‘over’ go 11-5 when their ace is on the mound but that number is helped by solid run support (6.06). Since Halladay returned from the DL on June 29, the club has gone 0-2 in his last two starts, with one loss coming against the Rays.
Tampa did chase Halladay in his first start off the DL but it knows that it could need more than four runs today considering the inconsistencies of starting pitcher David Price (2-3, 5.21 ERA). The former Vanderbilt standout couldn’t make it out of the second inning in his last start, giving up three hits, five walks and six earned runs during a 12-4 blowout loss to the Rangers on July 4. Not a lot of people have been able to get around on Price’s heat, but his control issues (30 walks) have been troubling.
The Blue Jays own a 14-13 record versus southpaws this year, which includes an impressive 4-1 record against lefties in road day games. Toronto (20-14) and Tampa Bay (15-12) have both produced winning records in afternoon games.
N.Y. Yankees at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EDT)
The Yankees and Twins have met five times this season and all five have gone to the club from the Bronx. New York will look to continue its dominance when it gives Alfredo Aceves (5-1, 2.03 ERA) his first start of the year. Aveves is taking the place of Chien-Ming Wang, who placed on the 15-day DL with a shoulder injury. Manager Joe Giradi has already said that Aceves will be on a pitch count (65) against the Twins.
Minnesota was planning on starting Anthony Swarzak but a late-change will put Glen Perkins (4-4, 4.38 ERA) on the hill. The left-hander has won three of his last four starts and only given up eight earned runs during this span, which has also helped the ‘under’ go 3-1 too. New York has owned lefties this year and Perkins can testify to that statement. On May 8, N.Y. lit him up for seven hits and six earned runs in 2-3 innings on May 18.
The Yankees have gone 16-12 in day games this year, while the Twins are just 12-18.
Gamblers looking at the run-line should note that three of the meetings this year were decided by one run.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (2:05 p.m. EDT)
Of the four early games, the White Sox are the only club listed as home favorites and deservingly so. Chicago is 10 games better than Cleveland in the standings, plus Ozzie Guillen’s club has gone 8-2 in its last 10. The Indians have struggled all year and are hoping to bust out of their current 2-7 skid.
Today’s matchup between the AL Central opponents will feature a pair of lefties squaring off. The Indians’ David Huff (4-3, 6.06 ERA) has been up and down in his rookie year. He looked sharp in a 15-3 victory over the Athletics on July 3 but was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs on June 28 in an 8-1 loss to the Reds. Cleveland has gone 6-4 in his 10 starts and has helped him in the six victories, averaging 7.3 runs per game. Huff has faced the White Sox once this year, allowing four hits and three runs over five innings in an 8-4 win on June 7.
Chicago counters with Clayton Richard (3-2, 4.75 ERA), who has helped the team go 3-1 in his last four starts. One of the wins came against the Indians, an 11-4 triumph on June 30. Richard gave up four hits and four runs, while striking out six over six innings.
Cleveland has gone 7-10 against lefties, while Chicago has posted a solid 14-9 mark. The Tribe’s offense is averaging 7.1 runs per game on the road against left-handers this year, which is the best in the majors. The total opened up at 10 runs.
The White Sox have won six of the first 10 meetings against the Indians this year. The ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (2:05 p.m. EDT)
The Cardinals will be looking to extend their two-game lead in the NL Central over the Brewers on Thursday when the pair wraps up their three-game set. Milwaukee won the first four head-to-head meetings, but St. Louis has captured the last three.
Joel Pineiro (6-9, 3.39 ERA) hopes to keep the winning streak going for the Cardinals. The team has gone 2-1 in his last three starts, which is an improvement considering they went 1-6 in his previous seven stints. Pineiro’s record might not look great on paper, but his lack of run support (3.69) certainly doesn’t help. He’s gone 3-5 on the road this year and is just 1-4 in daytime contests. The ‘under’ has gone 10-5 in his 15 starts.
Manny Parra (3-8, 7.52 ERA) will try to stop the bleeding for the Brewers but that’s easier said than done. He’s been recalled from Triple-A Nashville after getting pounded in the majors. Milwaukee is 0-5 in his last five starts when he takes the mound and that includes a 3-2 loss to St. Louis on May 27. Parra has gone 1-4 in afternoon action this year and five of his eight setbacks have come on the road.
The Cardinals own a league-best 10-2 record on Thursdays this season.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday Night Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The final Thursday before the All-Star Break gives bettors a chance to cash in on the traditional travel day. However, if you miss the window in the afternoon, there are still plenty of quality matchups to analyze at night. The collision of Los Angeles and New York will lead off the night edition of Thursday's Tip Sheet.
Dodgers at Mets (7:10 PM EST)
The Manny Ramirez Big Apple homecoming didn't go the way Manny expected, being littered with boos in Tuesday's 8-0 shutout of the Mets. It didn't help Ramirez's cause that he was ejected for arguing a strike three. Besides that, it's been cruise control for the Dodgers through the first three months of the season, owning the best record in baseball. The Mets, meanwhile, are trying to climb above .500 before the All-Star Break. New York has dealt with numerous injuries to its lineup, but Jerry Manuel's team has blown many opportunites this season to draw closer in the NL East race (Does Luis Castillo ring a bell?).
The master of the no-decision, Randy Wolf gets the start for the Dodgers, seeking his fourth win of the season. Wolf has given L.A. a solid outing just about every trip to the hill, compiling an ERA of 3.49. Amazingly, Wolf doesn't have a home win to his credit this season, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in his starts at Chavez Ravine. On the road, Wolf owns a respectable 2.91 ERA, with a 3-2 mark. Wolf limited the Mets to six hits and two earned runs in 7.2 innings pitched back in May, a 3-2 extra-innings victory by the Dodgers.
Probably the second-best offseason pickup by the Mets behind closer Francisco Rodriguez has been Livan Hernandez. The ageless 1997 World Series MVP chews up plenty of innings, despite the Mets dropping his last five outings. Hernandez is 5-4 on the season with an ERA of 4.56, but the home ERA dips to 3.43. With New York's offensive struggles, Hernandez has received just four runs of support his last three starts, while five of his last six outings have finished 'under' the total.
Sportsbook.com has the Dodgers listed as $1.60 road 'chalk,' with the total set at 8 ½.
Braves at Rockies (8:10 PM EST)
The Braves continue their road trip from the Windy City to the Rocky Mountains, as Atlanta and Colorado begin a four-game set at Coors Field. The stage is set for a terrific pitching matchup between Braves phenom Tommy Hanson and Rockies veteran Aaron Cook.
Hanson brings in a 4-0 record, while the Braves have won five of his first six career starts. Hanson would be 5-0, if his bullpen didn't blow a late lead in his last start at Washington. Following a shaky home debut against the Brewers, the right-hander has allowed three earned runs in his last five trips to the mound, all 'unders.' This will be Hanson's first start listed as an underdog, after the last five as a $1.20 favorite or less.
Cook has helped anchor a solid top three in this Rockies rotation, alongside eleven-game winner Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez. Cook is 8-3 on the season, with an ERA of 3.76, despite a 3-4 team record in his seven home starts. Cook shut out the Braves earlier this season at Turner Field, going the distance while limiting Atlanta to four hits in a 9-0 blowout. Thankfully, the Braves don't belong in the NL West, as the Rockies are 7-3 in Cook's ten starts this season against teams outside his division.
The Rockies are a $1.25 home favorite, with the total listed at 8.5 at Sportsbook.com.
Rangers at Mariners (10:10 PM EST)
The forgotten team in the AL West this season has been the feisty Seattle Mariners, who remain above .500 nearing the All-Star Break. One major reason the M's are still hanging around the division race is staff ace Felix Hernandez.
King Felix has arguably been the best pitcher in the American League since the middle of May, with Seattle winning seven of his last eight starts. In this stretch, Hernandez has delivered eight straight quality outings, allowing eight earned runs. Hernandez's kryptonite has been the Rangers, as Texas has beaten Seattle in seven of the last eight starts made by Felix dating back to the start of 2008. To make matters worse, in Hernandez's last four starts at Safeco Field against Texas, he has lost as favorites of $1.50, $1.45, $1.75, and $1.85.
The Rangers will counter with right-hander Tommy Hunter, who has pitched well in three starts this season. Hunter, who gave up 20 earned runs in three starts last season, has allowed only five earned runs in three outings in '09. Hunter shut down two poor offenses in San Diego and Oakland, but earned some respect with his ability to quiet the mighty Tampa Bay bats his last time out (5.1 innings, allowing three hits and one run).
Texas is a perfect 5-0 this season against Seattle. The Mariners will try to stop the bleeding, as Sportsbook.com has Seattle listed as a substantial $1.80 favorite, with the total of 8.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday's streaking and slumping starters
By Covers.com
Streaking
Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)
The reigning NL Cy Young winner might soon have to change his own definition for “quality start.”
The dominant right-hander has lasted at least seven innings his past six starts, including three complete games, and has allowed more than two earned runs only once since May 15. Lincecum (9-2, 2.23 ERA) followed up his complete game, two-hit shutout of the Cardinals last month by going seven innings and giving up no runs on three hits against Houston.
All this is terrible news for the Padres, which have scored a league-low 318 runs. But be careful. San Diego is 2-0 against the Giants in Lincecum starts this season.
Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves)
The 22-year-old right-hander is wasting no time in becoming one of the rocks of Atlanta’s starting rotation. Hanson (4-0, 2.25 ERA) has improved every single start this season, and barely saw his scoreless innings streak come to a halt last week.
Before allowing a solo home run to Washington’s Adam Dunn, Hanson had thrown 26 straight innings without letting a runner cross home plate. And despite Dunn’s blast, Hanson still managed to only give up one run on three hits in seven innings – his longest outing of the season.
If Hanson can find a way to shut down the Rockies, who rank in the Top 10 in runs scored at home and against right-handed pitchers. he should get even more attention.
Slumping
Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers)
Welcome back to the big leagues, Manny.
Demoted last month after allowing 21 earned runs in just 11 1-3 innings in three straight starts, Parra is poised to make his return to the Brew Crew. But the Brewers starting rotation needs all the help it can get.
Parra has a 7.52 ERA with a record of 3-8. But even more troubling is his 1.92 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched) as he has walked at least two batters in every start this season.
The best hope for Parra against the Cardinals? Albert Pujols forgets to set his alarm.
"No matter how hard you throw,” Brewers manager Ken Macha told the Associated Press, “if you're throwing in the 90s, 92, 93, and you throw it in the middle of the plate it gets hit.”
David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
The Ray’s young star appeared to have it figured out after allowing just two hits and an earned run in 6 1-3 innings in a victory over Florida.
But after Texas pounded him for six earned runs in just 1 1-3 innings, in which he walked six batters, last week, the performance against the Marlins looks more and more like an aberration.
Prior to his quality start against the Fish, Price yielded a combined 15 runs and 17 hits in just 11 1-3 innings. And with Toronto on tap, he figures to have a small margin for error.
"I'm embarrassed," Price told the Associated Press. "I can't really put any words on it. I needed to stop the bleeding and I let us down."
Cincinnati (41-42) at Philadelphia (44-38)
The Phillies trot out veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer (7-6, 5.72 ERA) as they wrap up a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park against the Reds, who are slated to counter with Micah Owings (6-8, 4.48).
Philadelphia pulled out a 3-2 victory Wednesday night on Shane Victorino’s RBI single in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was the fifth win in the last six games for the Phillies, all on their home field, where they were just 13-22 on the year before their current hot streak. In taking the first three games of this series, Philly is also on a 15-5 surge against N.L. Central opponents.
Cincinnati is on slides of 6-14 against winning teams and 1-5 as an underdog. The Reds have been on the short end of this rivalry lately, as well, losing eight of the last 11 clashes overall and six of the last eight meetings at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have won three in a row behind Moyer, including Saturday’s 4-1 home victory over the Mets, in which he gave up one run on five hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings. Despite that strong effort, Moyer is still only 3-4 with an inflated 6.35 ERA in eight home starts this year, and he’s 1-4 with a 5.29 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Cincinnati. He faced the Reds once earlier this season, giving up three runs on nine hits and a walk in six innings of a 5-1 road loss in May.
Philly is on runs behind Moyer of 4-1 overall, 6-2 against the N.L. Central and 24-11 with the southpaw as a home chalk.
Owings has notched wins in three of his last four starts, including the last two in a row. On Saturday against St. Louis, he gave up two runs on six hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings as the Reds won 5-2 at home, and the 26-year-old has now allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six outings. Still, Cincy is on slides behind Owings of 2-6 on the road and 1-4 against winning teams.
Owings is 2-6 with a 4.62 ERA in nine road appearances (eight starts) this year, and he’s 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against Philadelphia. In a 12-5 home loss to the Phils in May, the right-hander got knocked around for five runs on six hits and three walks in just three innings.
For the Phillies, the under is on tears of 6-1 overall, 36-17-2 against the N.L. Central, 8-1 backing Moyer and 4-0 with the lefty working at home. Likewise, the under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 11-3 against the N.L. East, 6-1 with Owings throwing and 4-1 behind Owings on the highway. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 11 overall and six of the last seven in Philadelphia, the lone exception being the Phillies’ 22-1 rout Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
L.A. Dodgers (53-31) at N.Y. Mets (40-43)
The major league-leading Dodgers finish their three-game set at Citi Field with left-hander Randy Wolf (3-3, 3.49 ERA) taking the ball against right-hander Livan Hernandez (5-4, 4.56) and the Mets.
Los Angeles fell behind the Mets 4-1 after three innings last night and couldn’t catch up in a 5-4 loss, ending a modest 4-1 surge as well as a 4-0 mark against New York this season. Despite the setback, the Dodgers – who still own baseball’s best record – remain on runs of 7-3 against the N.L. East, 19-9 against losing teams and 17-9 on the road.
New York is 13-6 in its last 19 Thursday contests, but the Mets are otherwise on slides of 3-9 overall, 1-5 against the N.L. West and 1-4 at home, and it had scored just three runs in its previous four games prior to Wednesday.
Despite losing four of the first five meetings against Los Angeles this year, the Mets are still 8-3 in the last 11 series clashes in the Big Apple.
Los Angeles has lost two of its last three behind Wolf, following an 8-2 streak with the 32-year-old starting. On Saturday at San Diego, Wolf gave up just one run on four hits, with no walks and eight strikeouts over six innings, but the bullpen gave up six runs in a 7-4 loss. Wolf is 3-2 with a solid 2.91 ERA in nine road starts this season.
With Wolf on the bump, the Dodgers are on rolls of 8-3 overall and 6-2 with the lefty favored. Also, he’s 11-5 with a 3.30 ERA in 29 career starts against New York. On May 18, he got a no-decision in a 3-2 L.A. home win, limiting the Mets to two runs on six hits and two walks in 7 2/3 innings.
New York has dropped five in a row behind Hernandez, including a 7-2 beating Friday at Philadelphia, where the 34-year-old allowed all seven runs on 10 hits and four walks in just three innings. Hernandez is 2-2 with a 3.43 ERA in six home starts this season, and he’s 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA in 29 career starts against Los Angeles. On May 20, he gave up just one run in seven innings but got a no-decision in a 2-1 loss at Dodger Stadium.
The Mets are on a 2-7 purge behind Hernandez, and they’ve lost seven straight games with the right-hander as an underdog.
The over for the Dodgers is on upswings of 6-1 on the highway, 6-1 against losing teams, 6-1 with Wolf facing an N.L. East unit and 4-1 behind Wolf against losing teams. Conversely, the Mets are on “under” tears of 4-1 overall, 9-4 against lefty starters, 4-0 behind Hernandez and 4-1 with Hernandez facing a winning team.
Although last night’s contest narrowly cleared the posted price of 8½, the under in this rivalry is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall and 7-3 in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Gametimepicks.com
Halladay to face Rays
By Brobury Sports
Halladay highlights Thursday
One of the best pitchers in baseball, Roy Halladay is a -140 Thursday as trade rumors continue to swirl around him.
Halladay (10-2, 2.79 ERA) is at Tampa Bay in his first start since it was announced that Jays General Manager, J.P. Ricciardi will listen to trade offers for him.
Halladay is as professional as they come, so he won’t have any trouble concentrating as he does up against a struggling David Price (2-3, 5.21 ERA).
You will need to get your bets in early for this game as it goes off around noon EST, but there are plenty of other great hurlers later in the day.
Atlanta rookie Tommy Hanson (4-0, 2.25 ERA) hasn’t lost a game in six starts and he will show off his great stuff against Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.76 ERA) and the Colorado Rockies.
San Francisco ace, Tim Lincecum (9-3, 2.23 ERA) has been lights-out all year as his ERA suggests. The Giants would incredibly be the NL Wild Card team if the season ended today and they’ll try to protect that lead as they start a four-game series against San Diego and pitcher Josh Geer (1-3, 5.46 ERA).
Where will Halladay end up?
When the news first broke about Halladay, most predicted he would be traded to the Red Sox or Yankees. After all, those two teams have the money and prospects to get the deal done and they each want to keep Halladay from the other.
However, it’s more likely that the 2010 free agent gets sent outside the AL East and likely the American League. Philadelphia, San Francisco, and the two Los Angeles teams are considered the favorites right now.
Halladay does have a no-trade clause so he will have to approve where he goes, but get ready to look at the BroburySports future odds if he does get dealt, because whoever gets him will see their World Series chance increase immensely.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, July 9
Toronto at Tampa Bay (12:08 p.m. EDT). How's this for a nice matinee? Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is scheduled to face talented left-hander David Price in the finale of Toronto's three-game series at Tampa Bay.
STARS
Wednesday
-Andruw Jones, Rangers, homered in his first three at-bats to help Texas rout the Los Angeles Angels 8-1.
-Felipe Lopez, Diamondbacks, hit a three-run homer to cap a five-run rally in the eighth and Arizona defeated San Diego 6-2 to win its season-high fifth straight.
-Tim Wakefield, Red Sox, earned his AL-leading 11th victory and improved to 9-0 in his last 11 starts at Fenway Park with Boston's 5-4 win over Oakland.
-Chris Volstad, Marlins, pitched a five-hitter for his first career complete game, striking out six and not walking a batter as Florida beat San Francisco 7-0.
-A.J. Burnett, Yankees, won his third straight start, overcoming three wild pitches as New York topped Minnesota 4-3.
-Wandy Rodriguez, Astros, pitched a five-hitter and tied a career high by striking out 11, leading Houston over Pittsburgh 5-0.
-Shane Victorino, Phillies, had an RBI single with two outs in the ninth inning to lift Philadelphia over Cincinnati 3-2.
STILL SITTING
Marlins All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez is scheduled to start for the National League in next week's All-Star game in St. Louis but has missed four straight games with a right hip flexor. Ramirez hopes to play Thursday at Arizona.
SCORED UPON
Giants rookie Ryan Sadowski allowed his first runs in his third big league start - a 7-0 loss to Florida - after pitching 16 scoreless innings to begin his career. Sadowski's scoreless streak was the longest by a Giants pitcher to start his career since Al Worthington began with 19 in 1953. The 16 scoreless innings topped Hall of Famer Juan Marichal's mark of 15 to start his career in 1960 and also 15 by Dick LeMay in '61.
SLUGGING AWAY
One night after Paul Konerko connected for three homers, Texas' Andruw Jones hit three in his first three at-bats. Jones had two chances to equal the major league record but he popped out and struck out.
STUMPING FOR VOTES
The Phillies have gone all-out to get Shane Victorino selected to the final spot on the All-Star team. He went door-to-door in South Philadelphia with Mayor Michael A. Nutter to campaign for votes on Monday. Three fans in their early 20s have been sitting in the press box lounge since Tuesday afternoon clicking nonstop on their computers for Victorino. Fans in the ballpark and people listening to the game on radio or watching on television have constantly been reminded to "Vote for Shane.''
STREAKING
The Diamondbacks beat the Padres 6-2 to win their season-high fifth straight game and move out of the cellar in the NL West, ahead of San Diego.
TURNAROUND
Colorado beat Washington 10-4 to complete its third sweep in its last five home series and put the Rockies six games over .500 for the first time this season. They have gone 30-15 (.666) since May 21, the best winning percentage in the majors.
OFFENSIVE OUTAGE
After averaging 5.06 runs in going 21-14 through May 16, the Cubs have dipped to 3.43 runs while their record slumped to 20-27. They have been held to one run or fewer 15 times during the 47-game slide. The Cubs led the league in scoring last season but rank 15th in 2009.
TAKING OVER
Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer became eligible for the AL batting race with his three-hit effort against the Yankees. Mauer had been short on plate appearances, but now owns a 26-point lead over Ichiro Suzuki in the batting race. Mauer won the crown last season.
STAT
The Phillies used seven starting pitchers last season when they won the World Series. They have already used nine in 82 games this year.
SPEAKING
"Looking at the standings every day, to not be in last place is big and a breath of fresh air. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but to wake up tomorrow and be out of that is a nice feeling.'' - Arizona manager A.J. Hinch after his team ended their one-month stay in the cellar with a 6-2 victory over the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, wrapping up a three-game sweep.