Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (8-8, 3.49 ERA)
Floyd went two months without giving up a home run before that streak ended at 77 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles. Even with that longball, hit by Baltimore's Adam Jones, Floyd's ERA is an impressive 1.19 in the 12 starts between dingers.
"He has got good stuff - fastball, slider, curveball," Jones said of Floyd after the White Sox's 4-2 victory. "He basically has been throwing like he's been throwing the past two months."
Floyd has been exceptionally hot in his last three outings, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA during that span. He is 6-1 over his past eight starts and has lasted fewer than seven innings only twice in that stretch.
Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals (8-7, 3.03 ERA)
He shall be Livan, and he shall be a good man ... to send to the mound in the month of August.
The 35-year-old righthander is 1-0 in his two starts this month, allowing only one earned run in more than seven innings of work in both outings.
With Stephen Strasburg suddenly struggling and Craig Stammen sent to the bullpen, the Nats need a crafty veteran like Livan they can lean on.
Slumping
John Lackey, Boston Red Sox (10-7, 4.60 ERA)
After posting three strong outings to open to the second half, Lackey has returned to his unsteady form by suffering back-to-back bad losses.
The righthander was shelled by the Yankees and Indians in his last two appearances, allowing 17 hits and 11 earned runs in those 11 2/3 innings.
"He's been that guy at times this year, like today, they bunched four hits together," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "Or he's left the game (with runners on base) and given up a couple of extra runs. No, we love him to death. He just got outpitched today - or we got outplayed."
Perhaps the skipper had it right the first time.
Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs (5-10, 4.37 ERA)
Wells has lost has last three starts with a 6.48 ERA during that span and it appears the lack of offensive support from the Cubs' bats is starting to take a toll on the righthander.
"You can't really change your approach based on what kind of run support you're getting or not," Wells said. "Even if you have a 15-0 lead, you're still going out there trying to get quick outs and have us score more. It's the same thing - just be aggressive, throw strikes."
Easier said than done. Wells has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts but is just 2-5 in those games. The Cubs scored only one run in five of those games and three or less in all but one.
Thursday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday baseball card allows gamblers to wager on 10 games, including five contests under the lights. The Yankees continue their road trip in Kansas City, while the Twins and White Sox wrap up their series on the South Side. We'll start with the series finale in Philadelphia between a pair of division winners from a season ago that are currently outside the playoff race.
Dodgers at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST
Los Angeles busted out of its offensive funk by putting up a season-high 15 runs in Tuesday's six-run victory at Philadelphia. The Dodgers still have plenty of work to do if they want to make the postseason for the third time under Joe Torre. Despite loads of injuries all season, the Phillies are right in the thick of the playoff mix in the National League, owning a one-game deficit behind the Giants.
Clayton Kershaw (10-7, 3.19 ERA) takes the mound for the Dodgers, trying to bounce back from a home loss as a substantial favorite against the Nationals his last time out. The southpaw allowed six earned runs and seven hits in six innings of work, losing as $2.20 'chalk,' his third loss this season when listed as at least $1.60 favorite. Kershaw hasn't had much luck on the road recently, with Los Angeles losing three of his last four starts on the highway. To make matters worse, the Dodgers are 1-4 in Kershaw's five career outings against the Phillies, including an 8-6 defeat in last season's NLCS.
The Phillies send out Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.65 ERA), who continues to deliver quality starts with seven in his last 10 outings. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or more eight times in this span, but is coming off a solid performance against the Mets in his last start. Blanton gave up seven hits and two earned runs in seven innings, as the Phillies rallied against the Mets' bullpen to pull out a 7-5 victory. The veteran was involved in a pair of one-run decisions with the Dodgers last season, but the Phillies picked up a 5-4 home triumph in the NLCS.
Five of the last six meetings at Citizens Bank Park have finished 'over' the total, while the two clubs have split the six matchups in Philadelphia dating back to last May. Despite Tuesday's win, the Dodgers own a 2-10 mark on the road since the All-Star Break.
Twins at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST
Minnesota recaptured the advantage atop the AL Central with Tuesday's blowout victory at Chicago. The Sox held control of the division for most of July until a meltdown in Baltimore opened the door for the Twins to come back. Ozzie Guillen's squad is 20-3 at U.S. Cellular Field since June 10, but winning the division is the only likely way either of these two teams makes the playoffs.
Gavin Floyd (8-8, 3.49 ERA) has turned things following a horrendous start to the season. The White Sox righty allowed nine earned runs in his last 10 outings, after giving up 35 earned runs in his first eight starts alone. Chicago has cashed the 'under' in eight of Floyd's previous 11 starts, while going at least seven innings in six of his last seven outings. Floyd hasn't put up great career numbers against Minnesota, losing three of his last four matchups. However, Floyd will be seeing the Twins at home for the first time since a 12-2 victory in June 2008.
The Twins send out Francisco Liriano (10-7, 3.33 ERA), who had a three-start scoreless streak snapped in a 7-6 loss at Cleveland. The southpaw allowed seven hits and four earned runs in just 4.2 innings, Minnesota third loss in Liriano's previous four road outings. The competition Liriano has faced over the last four starts hasn't been the best, seeing the Indians twice, Royals, and Mariners. Liriano is 1-0 in two starts against the White Sox this season, including a no-decision in a 4-3 win at U.S. Cellular Field on April 9.
Minnesota has owned this series by winning seven of the last eight meetings on the South Side, while the Twins are 7-3 this season against the Sox. Chicago has cashed the 'over' in eight of the last 11 home games, as the Sox have plated at least six runs eight times in this stretch.
Yankees at Royals - 8:10 PM EST
These two teams shared an intense rivalry in the late 1970's, but this is just another series on the schedule over the last 25 years. New York is rolling atop the AL East, owning the top record in baseball. On the flip side, Kansas City is battling it out with Cleveland to avoid the cellar of the AL Central.
CC Sabathia (14-5, 3.14 ERA) bounced back from consecutive road losses to the Rays and Indians by shutting down the Red Sox. Sabathia has turned in 13 straight quality starts, with the Yankees going 11-2 in this span. The former Cy Young Award winner takes care of business as a long road favorite, owning a 5-2 record when laying at least $1.50 on the highway. Sabathia beat the Royals in the Bronx on July 22 by a 10-4 count, allowing a season-high 11 hits in 6.1 innings.
The Royals send out left-hander Bruce Chen (7-5, 4.44 ERA), who won back-to-back starts against last-places clubs Baltimore and Seattle. Chen has actually put up better numbers on the road than at home, owning an ERA of 5.06 at Kaufmann Stadium. The journeyman southpaw allowed nine hits and five earned runs in six innings of that 10-4 loss to Sabathia and the Yankees in late July.
The Bombers took three of four from the Royals in July, while going 6-3 the last nine meetings with Kansas City. The Royals are just 6-12 in series openers this season coming off a loss, falling to the Angels in extra-innings on Wednesday.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/12
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies @ Mets (-165) with a total of 7
These afternoon games are always scary, and this line is even moreso. Johan hasn't seen a ton of the Rockies, but he's dominated them when he has had the chance, and Jason Hammel has a ridiculous lifetime ERA of 33.75 against the Mets. This one looks way too easy, which makes me think it should be avoided.
D'backs @ Brewers (-150) with a total of 9
This is a potential tripping point for the suddenly "play like they care" Diamondbacks, mostly because Rodrigo Lopez has one huge weakness, and that plays into the Brewers strength - the home run ball. That being said, the Brewers are a little beat up these days, and are missing some of their power bats, so that definitely punches a hole in the case for backing Milwaukee, especially at this price. Wolf at -150 is a ton to pay for a guy that has been decent the last 3 starts, and has a nice 9-3 career record against the D'backs (from his time in the NL West), but again, this is a lot to pay for an afternoon game on a team that's floundering at home.
Cubs @ Giants (-185) with a total of 7
You didn't hear it from me, but the home run line is probably the only play that I wouldn't lose my head about. Matt Cain is rolling, he's 5-2 with a 2.41 career ERA against the Cubs, and the only Cub with any success against him is the new acquisition, Blake DeWitt. Randy Wells is decent, but he's hittable, and the Giants aren't going to drop this afternoon tilt. I wouldn't bet it, since you all know how I truly feel about playing a home favorite run line. In all honesty, it's too expensive, and I feel like the Cubs got what success they're going to have in San Francisco earlier in this series.
Pirates @ Padres (-200) with a total of 7
This one is way out of our price range, and the Pirates just stink to high heavens on the road, so there's no good reason to take either side. No great reason to take the total, either, since Garland is a master of leaving men on base, but even one big mistake and the roof could come in. Hell, the Padres might score 7 themselves if Duke has one of his classic implosions.
Marlins @ Nationals (-115) with a total of 8
I don't know how he's doing it, but Livan Hernandez just keeps rumbling along. This has the makings of a good game, too, with the second half prowess of Ricky Nolasco butting heads with Livan. Nolasco is coming off a poor effort, and I wonder if that starts a multiple-game slump, or if he bounces back. It wasn't one of those 1-inning starts where the starter wants to surge back - he went 5 innings, so the arm isn't as fresh as if he only threw 25 pitches, but it all comes down to the psyche of the pitcher, and Nolasco isn't really mister-cool. Livan is going to throw junk, and the impatient Marlins have been a nice victim this year. He's shut them down twice, but that third time is always a little tougher.
Dodgers (-135) @ Phillies with a total of 8
This is not Clayton's favorite club, though, as mentioned previously, with the injuries suffered by the Phils, some of the scariest lumber is taken out of the lineup. Kershaw is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA against Philadelphia, but I highly doubt he pitches that poorly against the somewhat unmanned club. He's going to need to put in a nice effort, though, as Blanton is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA against the Dodgers, doing his best high-wire act to keep bodies from touching home. Andre Ethier, Reed Johnson and James Loney have all hit him hard, and while I do seem to feel the home team is the better wager in this one (as a dog to a guy that's struggled against this opponent, in Kershaw), the Over is also in play, if both pitchers get a little bopped around.
American League
Red Sox @ Blue Jays (-110) with a total of 9
This one is another pretty darn early game, which makes me about 30 times less interested in the game. We might see some weird lineups, especially from the banged-up, and pretty old Red Sox, and an afternoon game in Canada is always a spectacle (sarcasm...). Still, both teams are playing like they care, and the Sox are still in the Playoff hunt in the AL East, somehow. Lackey is 4-4 with a 4.29 ERA against the Jays, lifetime, but has been absolutely clobbered by them twice this year. It's Blue Jays' youngster, or nothing, for this early tilt.
Orioles @ Indians (-150) with a total of 9
The Indians have won all 3 of Gomez's starts in the Bigs to the tune of +4.3 units, and I don't think there's much reason to think otherwise, here. Millwood actually did make a nice start against the White Sox his last time out, but Baltimore, for all their surging, still cannot find a way to win a start when Millwood is on the hill. I really like the Orioles in just about every spot besides when Millwood is out there. He looks dejected on the mound, and if he doesn't continue to pitch like he cares under Showalter, there's zero question he's gone. Showalter is 100% responsible for Millwood pitching competitively in his last start, and he earned himself another go, tonight, but he's a big dog for a reason in this one.
Twins @ White Sox (-125) with a total of 7
Gavin Floyd is a freaking machine, these days, and this seems like a pretty nice price on a good starter, at home, courtesy of the big name of his opposition. To Liriano's credit, he hasn't been that great against the Sox in his career (1-3, 5.82), but he's been the starter in two Twins wins over the White Sox. Floyd was the starter in a loss to the Twins, but he got burned by bad defense, and still only gave up 1 earned run in that contest. I expect his fine work will continue, and I'm also a little leery of getting behind Liriano (I thought that play on words was pretty clever) when he's pitching on the road. Those fly ball don't leave the giant dimensions of Target Field, but they might get out of US Cellular.
Yankees (-230) @ Royals with a total of 8.5
Goodness. That's about a high enough road line to scare away any Yankees-backers...or is it? Road run line? Nah. Leave this one alone, unless you think the Yankees score 11, then do whatever you want.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 23, 2010 on the road after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $745.
Diamondbacks at Brewers – The Diamondbacks are 0-11 since May 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since April 24, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $985 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since April 17, 2010 when Randy Wolf starts as a favorite after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1090 when playing against. The Brewers are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $790.
Cubs at Giants – The Giants are 0-6 since August 09, 2009 when Matt Cain starts as a favorite vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Giants are 0-5 since July 01, 2009 when Matt Cain starts after the results of his last three starts were WWL for a net profit of $635 when playing against.
Orioles at Indians – The Orioles are 4-0 since May 02, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $635. The Indians are 0-5 since May 05, 2010 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $545 when playing against.
Rockies at Mets – The Rockies are 0-7 since July 01, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts on the road after a quality start for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Mets are 8-0 since June 08, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $845. The Mets are 7-0 since April 19, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $790.
Marlins at Nationals – The Marlins are 7-0 since April 28, 2009 when Ricky Nolasco starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $720 The Marlins are 4-0 since June 10, 2010 as a road dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $610. The Nationals are 0-6 since June 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $625 when playing against.
Pirates at Padres – The Pirates are 0-16 since May 21, 2010 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1600 when playing against. The Padres are 11-0 since May 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100. The Padres are 8-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800.
Dodgers at Phillies – The Dodgers are 8-0 since May 15, 2010 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $800. The Dodgers are 8-0 since July 30, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Dodgers are 0-7 since June 20, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $745 when playing against. The Phillies are 8-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $860. The Phillies are 6-0 since July 22, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $655.
Yankees at Royals – The Yankees are 12-0 since May 31, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $1200. The Yankees are 10-0 since April 21, 2010 as a road 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1000. The Yankees are 7-0 since May 14, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts on the road after he went at least eight innings in his previous start and they won for a net profit of $705.
Twins at White Sox – The Twins are 8-0 since July 11, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $845. The Twins are 8-0 since July 22, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $870. The Twins are 0-6 since July 24, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts as a dog vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since May 22, 2010 at home after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800. The White Sox are 7-0 since June 24, 2010 when Gavin Floyd starts as a favorite for a net profit of $700.