Thursday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Out of the 12 games on the Thursday card, ten will conclude series, while the two late games are series openers. The Red Sox and Rangers continue to fight it out for the AL Wild Card lead, while the Marlins send out their ace against the Astros.
Red Sox at Blue Jays (7:05 PM EST)
Boston and Toronto wrap up their three-game set at Rogers Centre, as the Sox send out Jon Lester to the mound. Terry Francona's team is looking for only its second road series victory since the All-Star Break.
Lester (9-7, 3.71 ERA) is coming off three straight solid starts against teams all in playoff contention. The Sox southpaw struck out 28 batters, while allowing a total of five earned runs in road outings against the Yankees, Rays, and Rangers. Boston helped out Lester in his last start by scoring five runs in the ninth inning to beat Texas, 8-4. The Sox are 1-4 in Lester's five career starts in Toronto, including a 3-1 loss to Roy Halladay and the Jays on July 19.
The Jays are 4-0 in Brett Cecil's (5-1, 4.35 ERA) last four starts, even though the last two victories have come against the A's and Orioles. Cecil is 2-0 in six home outings, owning a 3.18 ERA at Rogers Centre. The Sox knocked around the Jays lefty on May 20 at Fenway, as Cecil allowed eight earned runs in 4.2 innings of work, including five home runs.
Sportsbook.com has installed the Red Sox as a $1.70 road favorite, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Braves at Mets (7:05 PM EST)
The Braves are still right in the midst of the NL Wild Card race, as Atlanta finishes up its three-game series at Citi Field against Johan Santana and the Mets.
Santana (13-8, 3.10 ERA) has not had the greatest luck against the Braves since the beginning of his Mets tenure in 2008. The Mets lost Santana's first four starts versus Atlanta, until the former Cy Young winner won at Turner Field on July 18, beating the Braves, 5-1. Since that victory, Santana has been consistently inconsistent. The Mets have alternated wins and losses in the lefty's last six outings, with the three victories all being quality starts, and the three defeats being less than stellar. Santana is coming off a loss in his last trip to the hill, giving up four runs in a loss to the Giants.
Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.13 ERA) was on the losing side of that 5-1 defeat to Santana and the Mets a month ago. The Braves righty didn't pitch badly in that game, allowing two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work, his second loss to the Mets this season. Kawakami has been a good bet as a road underdog, with Atlanta winning four of his six starts in this spot, including a victory as a $1.85 'dog at Los Angeles.
The Mets are listed as a $1.30 home 'chalk' at Sportsbook.com, while the total is set at 7 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
Marlins at Astros (8:05 PM EST)
Florida trots out ace Josh Johnson to the hill, going for his 13th victory of the season. The Marlins are two games back of the Rockies inside the NL Wild Card race entering Wednesday's action, while the Astros have fallen out of the race.
Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) was nearly flawless his last time out, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Colorado. Garrett Atkins broke up the no-no with a solo homer, but Johnson's stat-line ended on a superb note, allowing just the one hit in 7.1 innings. The Marlins bullpen gave up a handful of runs, but Florida held on, 6-5. Johnson's road numbers are outstanding, winning six of seven decisions, while the Fish are 8-3 to the 'over' in his 11 away starts.
Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05 ERA) has always been a sharp play at Minute Maid Park, and this season is no exception. The Astros lefty is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 1.92, while Houston has won nine of Rodriguez's 11 home outings. Rodriguez is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 10 earned runs in just four innings in an 11-2 loss at Milwaukee. How good was Rodriguez prior to that awful outing against the Brewers? The Astros southpaw gave up a total of nine runs in his previous nine starts, with Houston taking seven of those games.
The Astros are 8-3 the last 11 home meetings against the Marlins, but Florida has taken seven of the last eight matchups against Houston dating back to last season.
Each team is listed at $1.10 on Sportsbook.com, with the total listed at 7 ½.
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Chicago Cubs (61-57) at L.A. Dodgers (71-50)
The struggling Cubs continue their West Coast road trip, opening a four-game set in Los Angeles with lefty Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.24) on the mound opposite Dodgers veteran Jeff Weaver (5-4, 3.77).
Chicago salvaged the finale of a three-game set in San Diego on Wednesday, getting a superb one-hit pitching performance from Rich Harden in a 7-1 victory over the Padres. Despite the win, the Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 and still nine games under .500 on the road this season at 26-35. Chicago is on further slides of 8-20 on the road against winning teams, 1-4 against the N.L. West and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.
The Dodgers just dropped two of three at home against the N.L. Central-leading Cardinals, capped by Wednesday’s 3-2 loss. Los Angeles has struggled lately both overall (7-11 in August) and in front of the home fans (1-5 in the last six). The Dodgers are on positive runs of 22-10 in their last 32 at home against southpaws and 9-4 in their last 13 Thursday contests.
Gorzelanny, who was traded from Pittsburgh last month, is making his fourth start in a Cubs’ uniform and coming off a strong home outing on Saturday, holding his former team to one run on three hits in five innings of a 3-1 win. The former Pirates’ starter has made two career starts against the Dodgers (both in 2007), giving up three runs in each outing over a total of 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA).
These teams split four meetings at Wrigley Field at the end of May, but including last year’s first-round playoff series that Los Angeles swept in three games, the Dodgers are on a 7-3 roll against Chicago (3-1 at home).
Weaver has made only one start since July 11, going just three innings on Aug. 12 in San Francisco, holding the Giants scoreless on two hits with L.A. eventually losing 3-2 in 10 innings Weaver has a 3.08 ERA in his six starts, but hasn’t made it past five innings in any of those games. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 home appearances this season, but just three starts, the last coming on May 20.
The last time Weaver faced the Cubs as a starter was in 2007 for the Mariners and he allowed three runs in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Wrigley. Dating back to when he was a regular starter, the Dodgers are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine home starts (2-1 this year) and 7-3 when he starts against a team with a winning record.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 19-8 on Thursdays, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 5-1 on the road, but the under has been the play in six of its last seven series openers. Los Angeles has stayed under the total in five of Weaver’s last seven starts and four of his last five at home, but as a team, the Dodgers are on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 at home and 6-2-1 at home against teams with losing road records. Finally, this series has stayed under the total in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven clashes in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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Baseball Today
Thursday, August 20
Florida at Houston, (8:05 p.m. EDT). The Marlins' Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) takes on Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05) and the Astros.
STARS
Wednesday
- Cliff Lee, Phillies, pitched a two-hitter, struck out 11 and had two hits in Philadelphia's 8-1 victory over Arizona.
- Mark Teixeira, Yankees, had a two-run homer and a run-scoring grounder in New York's 3-2 victory at Oakland.
- Nate Schierholtz, Giants, had an RBI double in the eighth inning to give San Francisco a 1-0 victory at Cincinnati.
- Carlos Gonzalez and Clint Barmes, Rockies, both hit solo homers to help lead Colorado to a 5-4 victory at Washington.
- Matt Holliday, Cardinals, hit a sacrifice fly in the top of the ninth inning to give St. Louis a 3-2 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Jered Weaver, Angels, gave up seven hits in his second career shutout in Los Angeles' 3-0 victory at Cleveland.
- Denard Span, Twins, hit a tying RBI double and then scored the go-ahead run to rally Minnesota to a 5-4 victory over Texas.
- Jason Bay, David Ortiz and Victor Martinez, Red Sox. Bay hit a two-run homer, and Ortiz and Martinez added solo shots in Boston's 6-1 victory at Toronto.
- Michael Bourn, Astros, had three hits, two stolen bases and scored two runs in Houston's 6-3 victory over Florida.
STELLAR LEE
Cliff Lee took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before finishing with a two-hitter in Philadelphia's 8-1 victory over Arizona on Wednesday night. Lee tied a career high with 11 strikeouts in his 12th career complete game and fifth this season. He is 4-0 with an 0.82 ERA and two complete games in four starts since being acquired from Cleveland last month.
10 FOR 15
The Marlins reached 10 hits for the 15th straight game in a 6-3 loss at Houston on Wednesday night, matching the longest streak since the St. Louis Browns had one that long in 1937, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
STREAKS
Jason Bay hit a two-run homer, and David Ortiz and Victor Martinez added solo shots in Boston's 6-1 win at Toronto on Wednesday night, giving the Red Sox at least two homers in five straight games. ... The Angels' 3-0 win over Cleveland was Los Angeles' fifth straight victory.
SNAPPED
Oakland's Jack Cust had a solo homer in the sixth inning of a 3-2 loss to the New York Yankees on Wednesday night, snapping his career-worst 23-game streak without an RBI. He also ended a 26-game, 80 at-bat homerless streak. ... Chicago's 7-1 victory at San Diego snapped the Cubs' six-game losing streak at Petco Park. ... Nate Schierholtz's RBI double in the eighth inning of San Francisco's 1-0 victory at Cincinnati snapped Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo's scoreless innings streak at 17.
HEAVY HITTERS
Howie Kendrick was the only batter in Los Angeles' lineup who started its 3-0 win over Cleveland on Wednesday hitting under .300. In a 5-4 win Tuesday, all nine players in the Angels' order ended the game hitting .300 or better. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that marked the first time it had happened at least 100 games into a season since the 1934 Detroit Tigers did it.
SPEAKING
"Usually he's pounding the zone but he was more erratic with his command tonight. We're a team that if you don't throw a lot of strikes, we'll make you throw a lot of pitches a lot of the time. For whatever reason he wasn't as crisp tonight.'' - Boston's Jason Bay, who hit a two-run homer off Toronto ace Roy Halladay in to help the Red Sox to a 6-1 victory.
Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
The 23-year-old lefty has been a welcome surprise for Toronto’s starting staff, posting a 3-0 record with two no-decisions in his past five starts.
Cecil (5-1, 4.35 ERA) has given up just seven total earned runs in this span, which included a 13-inning scoreless streak during consecutive wins over the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians.
Joel Pineiro, St. Louis Cardinals
On a staff noted for overachieving, Pineiro has gone from journeyman to overlooked ace in the St. Louis rotation.
Pineiro (11-9, 3.25 ERA) is 5-0 with a pair of no-decisions in his past seven outings. He has given up three runs or fewer six times in this streak, which includes back-to-back wins over the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres.
The 30-year-old right-hander also has gone at least six innings in five of his previous seven trips to the hill.
Slumping
Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
Although Harang’s future in the Reds’ starting rotation might be uncertain, his reservation in the “slumping” column appears to be in no immediate jeopardy.
We hate to consistently pick on one guy, but it’s hard to overlook everything that ails the hard-throwing righty.
Harang (6-14. 4.35 ERA) is 1-6 in his past seven starts. He has given up at least four earned runs in four of those contests and has yielded a minimum of six hits in all of them.
On the bright side, Harang had perhaps his best outing of the season when he held the Giants to just two runs during his lone win in this span. However, he followed it up with a loss to the Washington Nationals.
Anthony Swarzak, Minnesota Twins
The rookie impressed the Twins’ brass by winning his Major League Baseball debut. But it’s been pretty much downhill since.
The 23-year-old right-hander is 1-3 with a no-decision in his past five starts. Swarzak (3-6, 5.87 ERA) has lost his last three decisions, while giving up 16 earned runs and failing to get past the fourth inning in any of those contests.