Thursday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Getaway Thursday in baseball involves nine games on the card with only two new series starting up. The Marlins and Mets wrap up their three-game set at Citi Field, while the Rangers and Twins finish things up in Arlington. We'll begin with one of the new series taking place as Detroit makes the short trip north of the border.
Tigers at Blue Jays - 7:05 PM EST
Detroit has cleaned up recently against the bottom-feeders of its division by winning six straight against Cleveland and Kansas City. The Tigers look to keep up their hot streak at Toronto, as the Jays try to finish the season strong despite likely missing the playoffs once again.
Ricky Romero (10-7, 3.50 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, as the southpaw has not lost since falling to the Tigers at Comerica Park on July 22. Some of Romero's numbers have been affected thanks to troubles with the Red Sox, allowing 14 earned runs in 15.1 innings. Past Boston, Romero has delivered quality starts in eight of his last 10 outings that are not against the Sox. Romero's numbers at home are solid, owning an ERA of 2.62, while finishing 'over' the total in three straight starts at Rogers Center. The Jays lost his only start against the Tigers this season back in late July with a 5-2 setback as $1.40 underdog.
Detroit sends out Max Scherzer (9-9, 3.73 ERA), who has compiled five consecutive quality starts. For as well as Scherzer has pitched in this stretch, the Tigers are just 2-3, including losses to the Rays, White Sox, and Red Sox. The former Diamondback is coming off consecutive victories over the Yankees and Indians, giving up six hits and two runs in 13 innings pitched. Scherzer has never faced the Blue Jays in his short career, while Detroit is 2-10 in his 12 road starts this season.
These teams split a four-game set at Comerica Park last month, as three games finished 'under' the total. Detroit hasn't visited Toronto since the first series of last season when the Jays took three of four from the Tigers.
Marlins at Mets - 7:10 PM EST
The home team has dominated this series in 2010, owning an 11-3 mark after the Mets claimed the series opener in walk-off fashion. Both these NL East rivals are on the outside of the playoff picture, as each club hovers around the .500 plateau. A pair of unheralded starters takes the hill, with each hurler riding a nice string of outings.
Anibal Sanchez (10-8, 3.16 ERA) has allowed two earned runs in his last three starts, as the Marlins' righty is coming off seven scoreless innings of a 9-0 victory over the Astros. Florida has alternated wins and losses in each of Sanchez's previous eight starts, while the Fish are 2-1 in his last three outings on the highway. Sanchez is 1-1 in two starts against the Mets this season, allowing four earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 defeat at Citi Field in early June.
The Mets counter with Jonathon Niese (8-5, 3.33 ERA), who is fresh off four straight starts of allowing one earned run each time. New York split those four contests, but the two losses fall on the bullpen, who squandered leads in the eighth inning to the Rockies and Phillies. The Mets are just 1-3 in Niese's last four starts at home, but New York beat Florida, 6-1 on June 5 as the lefty tossed seven strong innings.
New York is 5-2 in seven home matchups this season, including four straight wins. The Mets have cashed the 'under' in 10 of their last 12 games, while the Marlins are 6-1 to the 'under' the previous seven road contests.
Twins at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST
Two of the three division leaders in the American League meet for the final contest of a four-game set in Arlington. Texas is cruising along in the AL West, while Minnesota owns a 3 ½-game advantage over Chicago in the AL Central. Cliff Lee looks to get back on track after suffering major struggles over his previous three outings.
Lee (10-7, 3.09 ERA) has taken a hit recently, giving up 18 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings of work, all in losses to the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays. The Rangers' ace actually profited more with last-place Seattle than first-place Texas. The Mariners went 9-4 in his 13 starts for +4.8 units. On the flip side, the Rangers are 3-6 in his nine outings while losing bettors 8.1 units, including three defeats when Lee is laying at least $2.00.
After the Rangers provided Lee with three runs or less in his first five starts, Texas has plated four runs or more in each of his last four outings (1-3). Lee shut down the Twins earlier this season with the Mariners, scattering five hits and one earned run in eight innings of a 2-1 victory.
Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.45 ERA) received a couple extra days off to rest his arm after throwing over 106 pitches in each of his last four starts. The Minnesota southpaw hasn't been sharp in this timeframe, allowing 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his previous three trips to the mound, but the Twins managed a pair of crucial victories over the White Sox. The Twins are 6-1 in Liriano's last seven starts, while Minnesota has scored at least six runs six times in this span. Liriano didn't face the Rangers earlier this season, but did allow seven earned runs in just two innings of an 8-5 loss in Arlington last August.
The home team is 5-0 in this season's series, while the Rangers own a 5-4 edge in Arlington over the Twins since last season. Each club owns a 5-2 record in Game 4's of a series, as Minnesota looks to improve on a 6-4 run on the road since early August.
vegasinsider.com
Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Chris Carpenter (14-4, 2.88 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have won seven of Carpenter’s last eight starts. The big right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since a 4-3 loss at Colorado on July 8 and has gone at least seven innings in every start since the All-Star break. Carpenter is also 5-1 lifetime against the Nationals with a 3.56 ERA.
Wandy Rodriguez (9-12, 4.00 ERA), Houston Astros
Rodriguez hasn’t won in four straight starts, but don’t point the finger at him. The last time he allowed more than two runs in a start was back on July 19 and he has lowered his ERA from 5.11 to 4.00 since then. Rodriguez took a 6-3 loss to the Marlins in his last outing, allowing just two earned runs over six innings while striking out 10.
Slumping
Justin Masterson (4-12, 5.33 ERA), Cleveland Indians
Masterson has just two wins since the middle of June and allowed five runs over six innings against the Tigers in his last start, a 6-0 loss. Reports out of Cleveland indicate that the Indians could send Masterson to the bullpen once he gets up to about 165 innings. He has thrown 145 1/3 innings this year and moving him to relief could open up a spot for Indians prospect Carlos Carrasco.
MLB RoundUp For 8/26
By Dan Bebe
National League
Astros @ Phillies (-165) with a total of 8
Honestly, the "cool" kids are probably going to jump on the Astros, but with the getaway game, and with the Phillies likely a little shaken and peeved after the first two games of the series (and yesterday's result, when it comes in), I happen to think this is not a particularly good spot for the Astros. I can't quite put my finger on why, and I know that's not particularly helpful for all of you, but something is just telling me that the red-hot Wandy would not be this huge of a dog to the very pedestrian Kyle Kendrick unless the Phillies were going to break out the lumber.
Dodgers @ Brewers (-171) with a total of 8
This line is probably out of our price range for backing a favorite, considering the Brewers simply aren't a good team. Add to that LA has knocked Gallardo around a bit, and suddenly you actually have yourselves a live dog. Gallardo (and this surprised me, too) is 0-2 with a 12.19 ERA against the Dodgers. He hasn't faced them in 2010, however, and this eerily punchless Dodgers iteration probably won't punish Gallardo for more than a couple runs, if that. He's also coming off an ugly start (that resulted in a win, somehow) against the Padres, and I'd argue Gallardo's last 3 starts have all been a little lacking in focus. Monasterios is a reliever. You're going to get 5 innings, maybe a little more, and he'll probably get through the order twice before needing a bailout. This game, to me, is closer to a coin-flip than the line indicates, but backing the Dodgers right now takes some stones.
D'backs @ Padres (-165) with a total of 7
The D'backs, like the Dodgers, are another interesting dog, to me. Ian Kennedy has pitched a little better his last 3 starts, though certainly not great. He does hold a 2.70 ERA against the Padres, though, and actually led the D'backs to a win over Correia way back in early April. Does that mean he can do so, again? My take is that Kennedy gives up 2-3 runs in 6 innings, and Correia will probably do the same. So, it comes down to the chance the pens give up 2 runs to get us to an Over, and which pen, since Arizona could potentially be a profitable dog.
Cardinals (-210) @ Nationals with a total of 8
Ah, the return of Washington's "other" Zimmerman. For too long, kept in the shadows behind Ryan, Jordan gets a chance to face...oh, crap, a former Cy Young winner. Carpenter is 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA against the Nats, but the Cardinals just haven't been that convincing on the road this year. No play in this one for me.
Marlins @ Mets (-110) with a total of 7.5
I will admit, this is one of the few games on the board that really caught my eye, largely because it's one of the few games with a line under 170. In any case, Jon Niese brings his 1-2, 3.60 lifetime mark against the Marlins to the table, along with what has been, I'd call a breakout season for the young lefty. How many years in a row did we keep hearing that this Mets' youngster has all this talent, and now finally we're seeing it bear itself out. Interestingly, Niese has allowed just 1 run in each of his last 4 starts. Sanchez, for the Marlins, is sporting a solid 3.16 ERA, and has had one very good and one mediocre start against the Mets, this year. He's 3-4 against them, lifetime, but he, too, is coming off a strong start, and 3 straight quality outings. Good pitchers, slight edge to the Mets because of the home field, but can they score more than 2-3 runs?
American League
Athletics (-125) @ Indians with a total of 8.5
Masterson's wacky up-and-down season continued his last time out with an ugly bit of work in Detroit. And we've hit that point where backing him is probably out of the question. The Indians aren't hitting, and the only time they win games is when they're putting up 5-6 runs/game. Masterson is also 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA against the Athletics, so it's not like history is going to make him any more confident. Mazzaro is, somehow, already 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA against the Indians in his career, including a tremendous start earlier this year right here at Progressive. I know it's the public side, given the teams and the starters, but I'm looking at the A's or pass.
Tigers @ Blue Jays (-140) with a total of 8
Max Scherzer has been outstanding since his return from Triple-A; I mean, just dominant. If the Tigers could give him any kind of consistent run support, he'd be rolling through the League. Of course, that's why there's both an offensive and a defensive side to the game, and Detroit, on the road, rarely takes part in the offensive half. Romero hasn't been that outstanding against the Tigers in his short, but solid career (1-2, 4.26), and Toronto is going to be coming off an emotional series with the Yanks, but how much stock can we truly put into the Tigers recent run of better play, at home? I'm not sure I can fade Scherzer because of how good he's been, but I think I need just a tiny bit more value to jump on the dog.
Twins @ Rangers (-160) with a total of 8
We're seeing Texas start to put the pieces back together, and that's scary. They had taken their collective foot off the gas when they got up about 10 games on the Angels and A's, and after a little scuffling, it seems like Texas has pulled out of the nosedive, and they're back to winning. Of course, this line is wildly inflated, and getting Liriano at this type of dog price is something you at least have to give a little thought. Still, without getting into the numbers too much, with Texas playing better (and we know how good they can be, at home), and the Twins due for a little lull (after the beastly start to the second half), I'm not sure I want to put anything on this line, unless someone wanted to subsidize me and let me go max volume for a day.
Orioles @ White Sox (-210) with a total of 9
I think some of the luster on the Orioles is coming off. Once the public catches up, it usually does. This team is still a value, but not nearly the insane value they were 2 weeks ago, or even 3 weeks ago. I'm not betting this game, as I see very little reason to take either side or total, but just heed my warning -- the Orioles are going to be very close to a break-even proposition the rest of the way, as the market is starting to catch up, and lines are inching towards getting tighter. As I also said a few days ago, I'd rather back them against bad teams, since the Sox really need wins right now, and aren't going to take the O's lightly like they might have back in July.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Tigers at Blue Jays – The Tigers are 0-6 since April 23, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $655 when playing against. The Tigers are 4-0 since May 10, 2010 as a dog after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $576. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since July 22, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts as a home favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600.
Dodgers at Brewers – The Brewers are 7-0 since May 20, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $890. The Brewers are 6-0 since May 27, 2010 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $770. The Brewers are 6-0 since May 09, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a home 140+ favorite after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $600.
Athletics at Indians – The Athletics are 12-0 since April 25, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1200. The Athletics are 5-0 since July 28, 2009 when Vin Mazzaro starts after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $744. The Indians are 0-7 since August 05, 2010 when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $770 when playing against.
Marlins at Mets – The Marlins are 0-7 since May 02, 2009 when Anibal Sanchez starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Mets are 7-0 since May 11, 2010 at home after a one run loss for a net profit of $840.
Cardinals at Nationals – The Cardinals are 7-0 since July 17, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts as a 200+ favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 12, 2010 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Nationals are 0-8 since April 18, 2010 as a home dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-7 since May 12, 2009 when Jordan Zimmermann starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $720 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 0-14 since May 25, 2010 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1405 when playing against. The Padres are 11-0 since June 20, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100. The Padres are 10-0 since July 04, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.
Astros at Phillies – The Astros are 5-0 since July 31, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $525. The Phillies are 6-0 since May 05, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $665.
Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 6-0 since July 11, 2010 on the road and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $655. The Twins are 6-0 since June 10, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $635.
Orioles at White Sox – The Orioles are 0-9 since May 16, 2010 and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $940 when playing against. The White Sox are 6-0 since May 03, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $600.