Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streakers
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins (10-5, 4.44)
Slowey is 2-0 in his last three starts wth a 1.83 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He is coming off an eight-inning shutout performance against the Mariners. The righthander has allowed only 14 hits and four runs over 19 2/3 innings.
Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (9-9, 4.21)
Just call Davis Mr. July. He went a perfect 4-0 in five starts during the month with a 2.11 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. In rattling off four straight wins, the righty has given up 22 hits and seven runs over 28 1/3 innings. Too bad he's going head-to-head with Slowey.
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers (9-5, 3.78)
Billingsley has a current streak of 21 2/3 scoreless innings, including 6 2/3 against the Giants in his last outing and six more against the hard-hitting Padres. The righthander is 2-0 in his last three starts with triple goose eggs for an ERA (0.00) during that span.
Slumping
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Philles (6-13, 3.53)
It's time for Oswalt to start earning his pay check in Philadelphia, where fans won't be very patient after his debut defeat with the Phillies. He allowed seven hits and four runs in six innings against against the Nationals. Oswalt is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 7.20 ERA.
Jake Arrietta, Baltimore Orioles (3-3 5.47)
Arrietta hasn't lasted more than 5 1/3 innings over his last three starts, a span in which he is 0-1 with a lofty 8.26 ERA. That's 13 runs and 13 walks in just 13 2/3 innings - unlucky numbers in more ways than one.
Thursday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday baseball card involves 10 games, with eight of those contests coming under the lights. The Phillies and Marlins continue their series in South Florida, while the Angels try to get their bats going in Baltimore. We'll start in Atlanta with a battle of two of the top three teams in the National League squaring off.
Giants at Braves - 7:10 PM EST
Not many people predicted before this season that the three clubs with the best record in the Senior Circuit would be San Diego, San Francisco, and Atlanta. The Giants have been the hottest team in baseball since July 5, owning a 21-5 record to take the lead in the Wild Card race. Atlanta hasn't been able to catch fire since the All-Star Break, winning just eight of 18 games over the last three weeks.
The Braves still maintain a two-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, but that gap is tightening by the day. Jair Jurrjens (3-4, 4.62 ERA) has taken care of business at home, as the Braves are 5-0 in his five starts at Turner Field. Jurrjens is coming off consecutive non-quality outings against the Marlins and Reds, allowing nine earned runs and 14 hits as Atlanta lost both games. The right-hander has delivered three quality starts in all three career starts against the Giants, but has beaten San Francisco only once, coming in a 4-2 home win last season.
Tim Lincecum (11-4, 3.10 ERA) has bounced back from two subpar starts against the Red Sox and Rockies, as San Francisco is 5-0 in his last five outings. Lincecum delivered a solid start his last time out in a 6-5 home victory over the Dodgers, limiting Los Angeles to two runs in seven innings. The reigning Cy Young Award winner has actually been more consistent on the road, owning a 4-1 mark and ERA of 3.14 away from AT&T Park. The Giants are 6-1 in Lincecum's seven career starts against the Braves, including a 10-strikeout effort in a 6-3 victory in April.
San Francisco took two of three when the two teams met earlier this season, but the Giants struggled at Turner Field in 2009 by losing three of four. The home team is 8-2 the previous 10 meetings, while the Braves are currently riding a 7-1 run to the 'under.'
Phillies at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST
The banged-up Phillies have been slowly chipping away at the lead in the NL East, helping their cause with Tuesday's win at Florida. Philadelphia continues to play without Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, but have now adjusted to life without Ryan Howard, who was placed on the disabled list with an ankle injury. The newly-acquired Roy Oswalt will try to pick up his first win in a Phillies uniform after failing in his debut against the Nationals.
Oswalt (6-13, 3.53 ERA) has been a victim of horrific run support this season, receiving five runs in his last seven starts. Granted, six of those outings came with the Astros, but his new teammates in Philadelphia didn't help him much in a 7-1 setback last Friday. Oswalt fell behind early by allowing seven hits and five runs in six innings, his third consecutive start that has finished 'over' the total. The veteran has struggled against the Marlins lately, losing three outings dating back to 2008, including a pair of defeats at Sun Life Stadium.
Chris Volstad (5-8, 4.71 ERA) hasn't been particularly sharp since getting recalled from Triple-A New Orleans, allowing 12 hits and five earned runs in 11 innings of work. The Marlins did manage to beat a pair of division-leaders in Atlanta and San Diego in those games, but the Fish are 6-13 in Volstad's 19 starts this season. Florida owns a 1-5 mark the last six at home with Volstad on the mound, which includes a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on May 28.
The visiting team has dominated this series with a 6-3 mark this season. Seven of the nine meetings have finished 'under' the total, including all four games at Sun Life Stadium. Despite the bumps and bruises to the Phillies' lineup, the 'over' is 7-3 the previous 10 games.
Angels at Orioles - 7:10 PM EST
Time is slowly running out on the Angels' season, as Los Angeles was dealt a blow in Tuesday's loss to lowly Baltimore. The defeat dropped the Halos to .500, while sitting 13 ½ games outside of the AL Wild Card lead. Mike Scioscia's club has a better shot at winning the AL West, but is sitting in an eight-game hole entering Wednesday's action. The Orioles have been in a hole all season long, languishing in last place of the AL East.
Three times hopes to be a charm for Dan Haren (0-2, 2.63 ERA), who makes his third start for the Angels since getting dealt from Arizona on July 25. Haren put together a fantastic start his last time out, a complete-game, five-hitter against the Rangers. However, the Angels fell by a 2-1 margin, dropping his teams to 1-4 the last five games listed as a favorite. Haren hasn't faced the Orioles since 2007, but the 29-year old is 4-0 in his career at Camden Yards.
The Orioles continue to go with the youth movement, as Jacob Arrieta (3-3, 5.47 ERA) continues to be a stable part of this Baltimore rotation. Arrieta has gone through growing pains this season, beating the Yankees, Giants, and Rangers, but also going through stretch of allowing 13 earned runs the last three starts. Six of Arrieta's last eight outings have sailed 'over' the total, while the Orioles have scored at least four runs in nine of his 10 starts.
The Halos have struggled on the highway, going 3-12 the last 15 games away from Southern California. Since sweeping the Nationals in late June, the Orioles are just 4-10 at home, while plating two runs or less eight times in this stretch.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/5
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies (-171) @ Pirates with a total of 9
Well, this one is basically out of our price range, but I wouldn't want it, anyway. Francis has a lifetime 3-2, 6.67 ERA against the Pirates, and a few of the names that hit him hard are, amazingly, still on Pittsburgh's roster. He hasn't faced them this year, but has been mostly consistent in his return to the Rockies. On the Pirates side, James McDonald, fresh from the Dodgers system, gets the starting nod against a team he's actually seen plenty. He's 2-1 with a 4.63 ERA against the Rockies, and if the Pirates give him some run support, he should give the Pirates at least a puncher's chance. We know how bad the Rockies are on the road, but I'm not sure this is the best time to fade them, since McDonald has been downright awful this year, in the Bigs.
Phillies (-125) @ Marlins with a total of 8
Oswalt's Phillies tenure got off to a bit of a troublesome start with a clunker in Washington, and this should be another test for the new guy. He's had mixed reviews in his starts against the Marlins, as Hanley Ramirez has teed off on Roy, but he's been able to completely neutralize Dan Uggla and Ronny Paulino. So, his 5-4, 3.72 career mark is probably pretty accurate. Chris Volstad, as you guys know, is a prime fade candidate for me, though he's been marginal against the Phillies, which is a step up from his usual failures. He's been bad in one start against Philly this year, and better in the other, but the Marlins have found a way to win each of his last 2 starts, so maybe now isn't the best time to fade Volstad. I certainly wouldn't back Oswalt as he looks for some consistency in a new uniform, that's for sure.
Giants (-120) @ Braves with a total of 7
I feel like, to some degree, this battle of aces might not live up to expectations. Lincecum has been good lately, though not completely dominant, and Jurrjens, after bursting back into the Bigs off the DL, has cooled off just a tad with 2 mediocre starts, though I suppose not brutally horrible. That being said, both pitchers have done quite well against the other team in the past. Lincecum is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA against the Braves, including 7 innings of 2-run ball way back in April in a home win. Jurrjens is 1-2 against San Francisco, but has an ERA of just 2.61. So, which will we get? The incredible historical numbers, or the more up-and-down numbers of 2010? The Giants look like a nice price on a Cy Young candidate, but their play on the road is a little suspect, and the Braves are pretty solid at home.
Nationals @ D'backs (-141) with a total of 9.5
This is a pretty decent price on the rookie, who still hasn't really had his ass handed to him in the Bigs. His team hasn't scored any runs for him, but you can't really put the losses on Barry. Detwiler's been surprisingly serviceable since hopping into the Nationals rotation, though I still don't trust him. The D'backs can really make a pitcher work, and Detwiler isn't a big strikeout guy, which means Arizona is going to have their chances. If Enright can turn in another 6 strong innings, I give Arizona a pretty sizable edge in this starter matchup. The pen is always scary, so they're going to need to keep scoring until the final out is recorded.
Padres @ Dodgers (-155) with a total of 7
This is a pretty steep price tag for a team that hasn't scored any runs, isn't it? I realize that Billingsley is on a pretty impressive run, not having allowed a run in any of his last 3 starts, but the Dodgers still found a way to lose his last effort, as the bullpen blew the late 1-0 lead. Yeah, that's the kind of support that the Dodgers starters are dealing with, lately. Now, all that said, if ever the Padres were going to give the ball to a pitcher that the Dodgers might be able to "get to", it's Correia. They've scored 4 runs off him twice already this year, winning both of those games, 4-1 (not surprisingly, they didn't score off the Padres pen). This one has 4-1 written all over it, again, though I don't think I can advocate laying over a buck-fifty on a team averaging about 2 runs/game since the Break.
American League
Twins @ Rays (-155) with a total of 9
Right off the bat, I'm looking at the total. Slowey is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA against the Rays, and Davis is 0-0 with an 8.31 ERA against the Twins, courtesy of an ugly start in Minnesota back in early July. I do like how Davis has been pitching since the Break, though, and has taken hold of a spot in that vaunted Rays rotation. The Twins, or really, the AL Central is being exposed as pretty weak, since they just creamed some bad teams, and then came into Tampa, got worked in the first two, and are locked in a dogfight in game 3 of that series. This one is an early game, and the lineups are sure to be weird ones, so either play the total, or disregard it. That's my take.
White Sox @ Tigers (-135) with a total of 8.5
Each of these starters is solid. Scherzer, the young gun with the tremendous potential, just starting to figure things out a bit at the Major League level, and Garcia, who just keeps finding ways to record outs, though he seemingly gives up 2-3 runs in 7 innings every time out (for better or worse, depending on his run support). On a good team, that's enough to get a ton of wins and, not surprisingly, he has 10. Scherzer has the better season ERA, and it has been in decline, and after Edwin Jackson's dominant return to the AL (and Comerica) last night, the Tigers should be happy to see just about anyone else. Another afternoon game poses the same issues we mentioned above, but I'd have to give the slight early nod to the Tigers.
Angels (-170) @ Orioles with a total of 9
I wouldn't touch this line with a 10-foot pole. Haren, who could very well dominate, at this price, is just not a good play, at all. Especially when you consider the Angels haven't hit at all in Baltimore to this point, and the Orioles have been teeing off on the Angels lackluster pitching staff. I know it's trendy to assume that a good team won't get swept by a bad team, but that's exactly what the oddsmakers are banking on with this sort of line. It's pre-adjusted into the line that folks are going to play on one team just because they're "better" and "shouldn't" get swept. The Orioles on the run line are probably a smart play.
Indians @ Red Sox (-210) with a total of 9
Trademark "out of our price range" game. No analysis necessary to understand this one.
Rangers @ Mariners (-114) with a total of 6.5
King Felix gets a strong opening number against a tough, tough opponent. Hunter is coming off a supremely ugly game in Anaheim, though, so that might have something to do with it. With a veteran, I'd look for a bounceback, but with a young guy, that's just the type of start that can send a kid on a 2 or 3-start slide. He also didn't pitch all that incredibly in his one start against Seattle. Sure, it was a "quality" start, but really, any pitcher that doesn't go 6 innings against that anemic offense should be ashamed. Felix, by the way, has been good against Texas once, and terrible twice, so it's tough to know which King we'll see. Based on the strong opening line, though, I can't help but think that he's got something good in the tank. His strikeouts are down a tiny bit his last couple starts, but he's still not giving up any homers, and Texas appears to be in a letdown spot in this series.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Giants at Braves – The Giants are 10-0 since August 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000. The Braves are 0-10 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 0-5 since April 27, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts at home vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $800 when playing against.
Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 0-10 since April 22, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1085 when playing against. The Padres are 8-0 since June 06, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $955. The Padres are 7-0 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $875. The Dodgers are 0-6 since June 25, 2009 when Chad Billingsley starts as a favorite when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $845 when playing against.
Rangers at Mariners – The Rangers are 6-0 since July 27, 2009 when Tommy Hunter starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $615. The Mariners are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 as a home favorite vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $580 when playing against.
Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 8-0 since May 19, 2009 as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $800. The Phillies are 6-0 since July 24, 2010 after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $660. The Marlins are 0-8 since May 20, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts at home vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $1055 when playing against. The Marlins are 5-0 since June 10, 2010 as a dog after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $740.
Angels at Orioles – The Angels are 0-6 since June 20, 2010 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-5 since May 26, 2010 at home after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $510 when playing against.
Rockies at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-11 since May 28, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since May 22, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Twins at Rays – The Twins are 0-9 since May 05, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Twins are 0-8 since August 20, 2009 as a road dog after a one run win for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Twins are 0-8 since May 06, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $840 when playing against.
Indians at Red Sox – The Indians are 0-7 since May 13, 2010 as a road 170+ dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Red Sox are 9-0 since May 09, 2010 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $900. The Red Sox are 0-7 since October 11, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 0-9 since June 18, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Tigers are 6-0 since May 30, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts at home for a net profit of $600.