Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Tim Stauffer (4-3, 1.54 ERA), San Diego Padres
Stauffer made the most of his opportunity filling in for Mat Latos last week. He fired four innings of one-run ball on Monday and then followed that up six scoreless innings, giving up three hits against the Giants on Saturday. Get used to Stauffer in the rotation. Word is the Padres are going to keep him there for a while.
Jonathan Sanchez (10-8, 3.29 ERA), San Francisco Giants
Sanchez has pitched San Francisco to team wins in four of his last five starts and hasn’t given up a run over his last two innings, spanning 12 innings. He allowed only one hit in his last outing, blanking the Padres over five innings in a 1-0 loss. The lefty did have problems with his control in that one, walking seven while striking out four.
Slumping
Rodrigo Lopez (5-14, 5.13 ERA), Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez hasn’t won a game since July 8, going 0-6 through those 11 starts, though he has been better lately. He allowed just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 2-1 loss at Colorado the last time he took the hill and only allowed three runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss against Houston before that.
MLB RoundUp for 9/16
By Dan Bebe
National League
D'backs @ Reds (-185) with a total of 9
Somehow, Rodrigo Lopez has only allowed 1 homer over his last 3 starts. Considering he's the king of the gopherball, it seems like just a matter of time before someone starts teeing off. Is it this one? Volquez is coming off, unquestionably, his best start since returning to the Reds rotation, dominating the Pirates. He had been pretty iffy prior to that start, but it makes him dangerous moving forward, because we know how streaky pitchers can be, and a guy coming off injury might be finding a stride. Pass.
Pirates @ Mets (-215) with a total of 8.5
Good lord, Charlie Morton is a train wreck. He's 1-11 this year, his team is 1-12 in his starts (which, for those counting, means he leaves the game losing just about every single time. A guy with a 9.05 ERA isn't going to leave much value on the other side. So, while I'd love to suggest a play on the Mets, or the run line, this one has all the makings of a game that ends up closer than anyone thinks.
Padres @ Cardinals (-125) with a total of 7.5
San Diego actually played a solid series in Colorado, though they were unable to complete the sweep. Still, I like how the Padres are responding to that losing streak, and I like how they're responding to the pressure of the Playoffs. It seems like this team takes a few days to adjust to a new situation, but adding some veterans has helped a bit, and Tim Stauffer, despite being a miserable 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA against the Cards, lifetime, is having a ridiculously amazing year, and I think he gives them at least a coin-flip chance to win.
Dodgers @ Giants (-140) with a total of 7
Jonathan Sanchez, like his buddy Matt Cain, finally got a win against the Dodgers this year, but the difference is that Sanchez got his first only a couple weeks ago with 7 dominant innings in LA. Can he go with a follow-up? Well, he walked 7 but tossed 5 shutout innings against the Padres. But, can he really walk 7 in 5 innings and get away with it, again? There's value on the spoilers here, but the Dodgers can't seem to hit a lick, so it's just a small amount of value. More of a "volume play" on the side, potential value on the Under, too.
American League
Angels @ Indians (-115) with a total of 8
I happen to think that the Indians opening as a favorite means something. Maybe I'm nuts, but that's how I feel. The Angels have stunk for the last month, but the public still isn't going to back the Indians, even though Carmona is about the one player on Cleveland's roster that can attract a public dollar or two. Ervin Santana is 0-6 lifetime against the Indians with a 5.71 ERA. Carmona is 0-2 against the Angels, BUT his ERA is just 1.90, so he's been unlucky to lose. Food for thought, as always.
Twins (-115) @ White Sox with a total of 8.5
I believe this line is set pretty accurately. To me, this one could go either way, and depends largely on how last night's game ends (we'll know soon, as I'm typing this in the late afternoon). Why? Well, I happen to think that the White Sox level of effort is going to fluctuate a great deal on that result. The Twins are going to come out and play hard, and they seem pretty comfortable with a pennant race (kudos to Ron Gardenhire, once again). Pavano has pitched well against the White Sox a few times this year, though he got waxed by them the last time these teams met. Buerhle has been tremendous against Minnesota this year, so if the White Sox show a little fight, they could be a nice tiny dog, here.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
DODGERS: Los Angeles is simply grinding out their season, with their only true goal to finish the season above .500. Currently, the Dodgers are 72-73 SU, including a road record of 31-42 SU this season. Los Angeles is -11.39 and -13.95 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. The Dodgers have split the 16 games they've played against the Giants this season. Los Angeles continues to get outstanding results from their pitching staff, so it's clearly up to their offense to lead them to victory. Pitcher Ted Lilly continues to be brilliant wearing the Dodgers uniform, and will be making the road start tonight near his hometown. Lilly is 8-10 this year, with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.08. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is 1-5 in their last 6 games against a National League West. The Dodgers are 1-5 last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 7-21 last 28 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games against the National League West.
Key Injuries - LF Scott Podsednik (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 4 (SIDE of the Day)
GIANTS: (-105, O/U 6.5) San Francisco is in a heated battle for the National League West division lead. The Giants are trying to keep pace with San Diego, as well as trying to hold off Colorado. San Francisco has won 7 of their past 10 games, and stand 81-64 SU on the year. The Giants have struggled offensively of late, scoring 1 run or less in 4 of their past 6 games. To win the NL West, San Francisco must kick their offense into gear. The Giants are +10.55 and -6.55 units both SU and on the RL this season. Lefty Jonathan Sanchez has been nearly unhittable of late, and will look to keep that up against their rival today. Sanchez is 10-8 SU with an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.26 this year. The Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 Thursday games overall. San Francisco is 7-3 in their last 10 games against the National League West. The Giants are 37-16 in their last 53 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 1-4 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter. The Giants are 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 starts against a team with a losing record. The Giants are 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Giants are 16-7 last 23 games against a team with a losing record.
Under is 10-4 last 14 games against the National League West.
Key Injuries - CF Andres Torres (appendix) is questionable.
Projected Score: 2
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
Padres at Cardinals – The Padres are 7-0 since April 06, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $895. The Padres are 6-0 since April 10, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $755.
Dodgers at Giants – The Dodgers are 0-9 since April 28, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $950 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-7 since July 16, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Giants are 12-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1200.
Angels at Indians – The Angels are 0-10 since June 20, 2010 on the road after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1065 when playing against. The Angels are 0-6 since July 21, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $665 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since June 03, 2010 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Pirates at Mets – The Pirates are 0-6 since May 29, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Mets are 11-0 since June 08, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1145. The Mets are 0-9 since April 18, 2010 after a one run win and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $955 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Reds – The Diamondbacks are 0-12 since May 29, 2010 as a road 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Reds are 8-0 since August 02, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800.
Twins at White Sox – The Twins are 6-0 since June 30, 2010 after a 5+ run win and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $615.