San Francisco (73-60) at Philadelphia (76-54)
The Giants will try to make it two of three at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when they send ace Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez (2-0, 4.50).
San Francisco got a gem of an outing from newly acquired Brad Penny on Wednesday, as he tossed eight shutout innings against Philadelphia, giving up just five hits in a 4-0 win. The Giants improved to 6-2 in the last eight matchups with the Phillies, but they are still just 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia.
The Giants are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 37-17 as favorites and 5-1 against right-handers. Meanwhile, despite Wednesday’s setback, the Phillies remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 37-17 overall, 22-9 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 as an underdog and 11-6 against right-handed starters.
Lincecum is coming off Friday’s 2-0 home victory over the Rockies in which he scattered eight hits and three walks over eight scoreless innings, striking out eight. The right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, and the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven starts and 4-1 in his last five as a road chalk.
Lincecum is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 road outings in 2009 and 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, including a 2-0 victory on Aug. 1 in which he allowed seven hits and a walk in eight shutout innings. He’s allowed six runs (only two earned) in his last three efforts against Philadelphia covering 22 innings (0.82 ERA).
The Phils are a perfect 4-0 when Martinez has taken the hill, but he’s only pitched five innings at home because of rain delays, allowing one run on three hits in starts against the Diamondbacks and Braves. The veteran hurler has only faced the Giants twice in his career, with the last time coming in June 2008 when he allowed three runs in six innings of a 9-6 Mets win.
With Lincecum on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 5-0 versus winning clubs and 6-1 on Wednesday, but four of Lincecum’s five starts against the Phillies have topped the total. As a team, the Giants have stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as favorites and seven of 10 on Thursday. Philadelphia is on several “under” runs as well, including 6-1 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 20-7 against right-handers and 20-8 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA), San Francisco Giants
It’s kind of hard to believe this kid was almost traded for Alex Rios. Two years ago, the Giants were looking for a good young bat and Rios, then with the Blue Jays, was coming off an All-Star season.
San Francisco fans should let out a huge sigh of relief that the trade never materialized.
Lincecum’s stuff is – to borrow a line from Chicago Bulls radio man Chuck Swirsky – sick, wicked and nasty.
He pitched eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over the Rockies his last time to the bump. The Giants have won just once over his last four road starts, but the price is always cheaper than backing him at home.
If you don’t want to back the away team, think about the under. The under is 7-2 the last nine times Lincecum was on the mound.
John Smoltz (3-5, 6.71 AL & NL combined), St. Louis Cardinals
Some things go so well together they should never be separated, like peanut butter and jam or a smoke and a beer. You can now throw John Smoltz and the National League in the same category.
The former Brave looked like he didn’t belong in the majors during his short stint with the Red Sox. He was getting hit hard often and lefties were clobbering his not fast enough fastball.
But a return to the senior circuit has turned him back into a reliable and strikeout-tallying pitcher. He’s gathered 15 K’s in just 11 innings of work with the Cards.
“He knew he could still pitch when he got released by Boston,” teammate Albert Pujols said of the veteran hurler. “Obviously, he’s just been unbelievable.”
Before bettors get too excited about Smoltz’s 0.82 ERA in the NL this year, let’s not forget that his success has come against the Padres and Nationals – not exactly stiff competition.
Slumping
Manny Parra (9-10, 6.66), Milwaukee Brewers
This lefty pitcher is a frequent visitor to the slumping section. Milwaukee, oddly enough, is winning (5-2 in his last seven appearances) with Parra out there despite his devilishly-high ERA.
“For my own personal satisfaction, I’d like to pitch better,” Parra, who has an 8.25 ERA in his last seven starts, told reporters after his last outing. “But at the end of the day everyone in this clubhouse is happy when we win so that’s all that matters.”
Parra has good stuff, but he routinely gets into trouble because of walks. His lack of control leads to big innings and early exits. It doesn’t bode well either that it was the light-hitting Nats and Pirates who were roughing Parra up in his last three starts.
The best play with Parra on the bump might be the over. His starts have finished above the total in seven of his last eight games.