Thursday's Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA)
Hamels made a name for himself in the postseason last year. He opened the 2009 playoffs with a less-than-impressive performance against the Colorado Rockies in Game 2 of the NLDS, allowing four runs on seven hits in just five innings for a 5-4 loss. But, in Hamels’ defense, his wife was having a baby.
Despite battling inconsistency this year, Hamels is still one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball. His postseason record is remains a stellar 4-2 in seven starts and his ERA is just 2.70. He has totaled 42 strikeouts in postseason playing including five against the Rockies last week. Hamels is just 3-6 away from home this season with an ERA just south of 5.00.
Hamels was nearly invisible against the Dodgers this season. In his two starts versus Los Angeles, the lefty allowed one run in 16 innings of work including a complete-game shutout of the Dodgers in his most recent start in June. For his career, Hamels has a 1.63 ERA against the Dodgers and had gone at least seven innings in each of those six appearances.
Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA)
Randy Wolf was originally scheduled to be the Game 1 starter, but after two straight shaky outings, including Game 1 against the Cardinals, manager Joe Torre decided to go with his kid lefty.
Kershaw surrendered just two runs in 6 2-3 innings of work against the Cards in the Game 2 win. He was just as impressive in his final regular season start. He struck out 10 Rockies while allowing just three hits and three walks in the six-inning appearance.
You know Torre must have a lot of confidence in Kershaw to make him the Dodgers Game 1 pitcher. Torre built a reputation in New York for being somewhat reluctant to go with younger players, instead placing his faith in veterans.
Philadelphia (3-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-0)
The Phillies and Dodgers meet for the right to go to the World Series for the second straight year and the fifth time since 1977 as they kick off the best-of-7 National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA), while the defending champs counter with last year’s playoff hero Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.39) in a battle of left-handers.
Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 ninth-inning deficit Monday in Colorado, scoring three times with two outs to steal a 5-4 victory and oust the Rockies in four games in the best-of-5 divisional series. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 5-1 in road playoff games, 7-2 in the opening game of any series, 9-2 as an underdog, 10-2 against the N.L. West and 30-11 after a day off.
The Dodgers pulled off a stunning sweep of the Cardinals in the opening round, defeating the N.L. Central champs 5-3 and 3-2 at home, then rolling to a 5-1 series-clinching road victory Saturday. Los Angeles also won its final two regular-season games and thus enters the NLCS on a five-game winning streak (4-0 at home), which comes on the heels of a five-game losing skid. L.A., which had the best record in the National League this season, has also won seven straight games on Thursday.
The Phillies ousted Los Angeles in five games in last year’s NLCS, but the run differential was only 25-20. Going back to last August, Philadelphia is 11-5 against L.A. (4-3 at Dodger Stadium). However, this season, Joe Torre’s squad won four of the seven meetings (2-2 at home). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Hamels, who on the 2009 NLCS and World Series MVPs, struggled in a 5-4 Game 2 loss at home to the Rockies last Wednesday, allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. Hamels is 0-3 in his last three starts and the Phillies have dropped four straight behind the San Diego native, who has allowed 17 runs (all earned) over 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA) during this four-start stretch. In addition to coming up empty in Hamels’ last four outings overall, the Phillies are 1-5 in his last six on the road, 1-4 in his last five as an underdog and 1-6 in his last seven against opponents with a winning record.
Hamels was just 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 15 road efforts this season, but one of those victories came at Dodger Stadium on June 4 when he pitched a complete-game three-hitter in a 3-0 decision. Hamels has owned the Dodgers in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts, giving up two runs or fewer in each outing while pitching exactly seven innings in the first five contests prior to the complete-game win on June 4. Hamels, who beat the Dodgers in Games 1 and 5 last year in the NLCS, has 39 strikeouts and eight walks allowed in 44 innings versus Los Angeles.
Kershaw got a no-decision in his first-ever postseason start in Game 2 of the NLDS, holding the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings, with the Dodgers eventually rallying for a stunning 3-2 walk-off victory. While Kershaw surrendered nine hits, he only walked one and pitched out of trouble on several occasions. Going back to Aug. 25, Kershaw has made six starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer each time out while posting a 2.25 ERA with 38 strikeouts against 11 walks in 36 innings. Still, L.A. is just 3-9 in his last 12 trips to the mound overall, 2-5 in his last seven at home, 2-8 in his last 10 as a favorite, 1-4 in his last five as a home chalk and 0-5 in his last five when opening a series.
Including his outing versus St. Louis last Thursday, Kershaw now has sparkling 1.89 ERA in 17 home starts this year, giving up just two home runs in 95 innings. However, he has just a 3-4 record to show for his home efforts, with the Dodgers going 9-8 as they’ve supported him with an average of just 3.3 runs per outing. The 22-year-old faced the Phillies twice each of the last two years, going 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA. In the two outings this year, Kershaw allowed six runs (all earned) on eight hits with seven walks and 10 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings, losing 5-3 at home and 3-0 in Philly.
Behind Hamels, the Phillies are on “under” stretches of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 12-3-2 on Thursday. Likewise, with Kershaw toeing the rubber, the Dodgers are on “under” tears of 7-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Thursday and 17-5-1 against teams with a winning record.
As a team, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-3-2 overall, 12-2 on the road, 4-1 following a victory and 4-1-1 in the opening game of a series. For the Dodgers, the over is on runs of 5-2-1 at home, 3-0-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1-1 after an off day, but the under is 5-2-1 in their last eight overall and 3-1-1 in their last four on Thursday.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 3-1-1 overall and 4-1 at Dodger Stadium. However, in last year’s playoff series, the over was 3-2 (1-1 at Dodger Stadium).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillies: The Phillies easily defeated the Dodgers in last year’s National League Championship Series. Philadelphia tied with the Angels for having the best road record in baseball at 50-33. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 against National League West Division teams. They are 9-2 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Phillies have four of the top 15 home run leaders in the National League with Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. Phillies starter Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) lost as a $1.60 home favorite in his last start against Colorado in the playoffs, 5-4. The left-hander surrendered four earned runs on seven hits in five innings pitched. In his last three regular-season starts, Hamels allowed 13 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks in 16 2/3 innings. The Phillies have gone over in 12 of their last 14 road contests.
The Under is 8-2-1 in Cole Hamels’ last 11 starts.
The Phillies are 11-5 in their past 16 games versus the Dodgers.
Key Injuries - Pitcher Scott Eyre (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Dodgers (-$1.35, O/U 7): The Dodgers led the majors with a 3.44 ERA. They also had the best bullpen ERA at 3.18, compared to the Phillies’ bullpen ERA of 3.90 and uncertainty at the closer spot. Los Angeles rapped out 29 hits and scored 13 runs in sweeping the Cardinals in three games during opening-round playoff action. Russell Martin and Matt Kemp, however, were a combined 3-for-23 batting in the series. The Dodgers are 52-31 at home. Clayton Kershaw, a 21-year-old left-hander, is getting the Game 1 start after early speculation that it might be veteran Randy Wolf. Kershaw has struggled versus Philadelphia going 0-2 this season with a 5.23 ERA. He is 0-3 lifetime against the Phillies with a 6.64 ERA. Los Angeles has lost nine of the past 12 times Kershaw has started. The Dodgers are 2-8 the past 10 times Kershaw has taken the mound as a favorite.
Los Angeles is 71-33 in its last 104 games as a home favorite.
The Under has cashed in 7 of Clayton Kershaw’s last eight starts.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)