N.Y. Yankees (6-1) at L.A. Angels (4-3)
Right-hander A.J. Burnett (13-9, 3.94 ERA) will try and pitch the Yankees to their first World Series appearance since 2003 when he goes up against Angels’ ace John Lackey (12-9, 3.66) in Game 5 of this best-of-7 ALCS at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.
New York took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Tuesday when C.C. Sabathia dominated Los Angeles for the second time in this series, holding the Angels to one run on five hits over eight innings of a 10-1 rout. The Yankees got homers from Johnny Damon and postseason hero Alex Rodriguez, who also had a double, a single and a walk.
New York, which hasn’t won the World Series since 2000, is on impressive runs of 47-18 overall, 13-5 as an underdog, 5-1 against the A.L. West, 45-17 against right-handed starters and 10-4 as a road ’dog. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re still just 2-7 in their last nine road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall and are on additional positive surges of 7-2 at home, 35-16 on Thursdays, 10-1 as a favorite and 7-1 as a home favorite. However, L.A. has dropped 13 of its last 18 playoff games, including seven of 10 at home, and it is just 1-7 in its last eight ALCS contests. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees have won five of six in this rivalry, and they’re now 8-6 in 14 meetings this year. However, New York remains just 9-21 in its last 30 games at Angel Stadium (3-5 this year). In fact, the host is 17-5 in the last 22 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-4 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Burnett pitched well in Game 2 of this series in New York, allowing two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Yankees won 4-3 in 13 innings. He’s now allowed two runs or less in six straight starts, and New York has won five straight times behind Burnett, including both playoff games by identical 4-3 scores in extra innings.
Burnett’s faced the Angels three times this season, allowing a combined eight runs on 18 hits over 19 innings (3.79 ERA). In his September start in Los Angeles, he gave up two runs over 5 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Yankees’ win, and he’s 8-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 17 road efforts this year. New York is on positive runs of 4-0 when Burnett faces a winning team and 4-1 when he gets four days off.
In Game 1 in New York, Lackey gave up four runs (two earned) on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of the 4-1 loss to the Yankees and Sabathia. Back in July, he faced the Yankees at home and gave up two runs over seven innings of a 5-4 victory. That came on the heels of a dominant 5-0 win over Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings.
With the win over the Red Sox, Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 14 starts at Angel Stadium this year. Also, in regular-season action, Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career starts against New York.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-7-1 overall, 8-4 in playoff road games, 5-2-1 in playoff games overall, 5-3 in ALCS action and 16-6-1 after a victory, 9-2-1 in ALCS road games and 20-8-2 in Burnett’s last 30 starts. Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-18-1 overall, 9-5 in ALCS games, 20-7-2 as a favorite, 19-7-1 against right-handed starters and 35-16 when Lackey faces a team with a winning record.
In this rivalry, the under is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall (2-2 in this ALCS), but the over is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 4 and Game 5 soaring over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Yankees: The Yankees are one win away from their first trip to the World Series since 2003. New York has won 13 of the past 18 times it has been an underdog. Overall, the Yankees are 47-18 in their last 65 games. Derek Jeter tied Lou Gehrig and Ryan Howard as the only player to drive in a run in eight straight playoff games. Alex Rodriguez has homered in three straight games. A.J. Burnett pitched well in Game 2 against Los Angeles, giving up two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Burnett pitched once in Angel Stadium this season. He struck out 11 batters in that game, but lasted just 5 2/3 innings giving up two runs on seven hits. The Yankees have won the past five times Burnett has started. New York is 46-18 in its last 64 games versus a team with a winning record.
The Under is 20-8-2 in Burnett’s past 30 starts.
The Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Angels (-$1.20, O/U 8.5): The Angels face an uphill climb since teams that have fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win only 11 times in 69 chances. John Lackey lasted 5 2/3 innings in the opening game of this series. He allowed four runs, two of which were earned, on nine hits and three walks. Lackey was hurt by several defensive miscues, including his own errant pickoff attempt. Lackey was much sharper when he beat Boston in Game 1 of the Angels’ opening post-season game. Lackey shut out the Red Sox for 7 1/3 innings at home. He yielded four hits and one walk with four strikeouts. Lackey was 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA following the All-Star break. Lackey is 5-7 in 16 career regular-season starts versus the Yankees with a 4.66 ERA. The Angels are 6-14 in Lackey’s last 20 starts when facing a team with a winning record.
The Angels are 10-1 the past 11 times they’ve been favored.
The Under is 35-16 in Lackey’s last 51 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)