Thursday's Playoff Offerings
By Judd Hall
The playoffs are rolling right along this Thursday with three games set to whet our betting appetite. Colorado and Philadelphia gear up for the second game of their National League Division Series. The Cards and Dodgers will be doing the same in the Senior Circuit as well. Meanwhile, the Halos welcome the Red Sox to Orange County to begin their American League Division Series.
Rockies at Phillies – 2:37 p.m. EDT
Philadelphia drew first blood with a 5-1 victory as a $1.30 home favorite on Wednesday afternoon. Cliff Lee scattered six hits and struck out five batters en route to his fourth complete game since being traded from Cleveland.
Colorado hand the starting duties for Game 2 over to right-hander Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16 ERA). It’s going to be interesting to see which version Cook the Rockies will get on Thursday afternoon. Will they get the version that went 7-1 with a 1.91 earned run average in June and July or the Cook that posted a 1-3 mark from August 6 on? There’s reason to be hopeful after Cook pitched eight innings of four-hit ball on Oct. 1 against the Brewers. He is also 6-3 with a 4.82 ERA in 11 daytime starts this season.
Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) hasn’t had quite the season he wanted to after being World Series MVP. Elbow problems have plagued him for the entire year. And his last three starts won’t soothe the Phillies’ souls right now, giving up 13 earned runs in 16.2 innings of work – all three were losing efforts.
What could prove the Rockies’ undoing is the fact that they are 2-7 this season against left-handers in daytime road games.
Cardinals at Dodgers – 6:07 p.m. EDT
St. Louis will send Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) out to start Game 2 of this best-of-five series. The young righty has run into a spot of trouble recently on the mound, going 1-4 with a 2.89 ERA. Wainwright has done well against the Dodgers this season, however, as evidenced by a 1-0 record and 1.20 in two starts against them in 2009.
The Dodgers are banking on Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA) to give them some momentum before heading to Busch Stadium. Los Angeles’s southpaw has been slowly ramping back up into the starting role since coming back from a shoulder injury from early September. His last two starts offered promise as he has tossed 10 innings, giving up two earned runs, 14 strikeouts and four walks. Kershaw is just 1-0 in four career starts against the Cards, but he’s held his own with a 1.82 ERA.
Red Sox at Angels – 9:37 p.m. EDT
Familiar playoff foes meet up in Anaheim with the Angels opening their division series with Boston on Thursday night. Los Angeles has enjoyed great success since Mike Scioscia took over as manager in 2000. The Halos have made the playoffs three straight years and six times in the last eight years. The Red Sox are in the postseason for the fifth time in Terry Francona’s six years as manager.
Los Angeles give the starting nod to John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) to start the series on a positive note. The Angels haven’t fared too well with their ace pitcher on the mound as they’ve lost three of his last four starts. However, that could be misleading with a two-inning performance Lackey had on Oct. 1 against Texas when there was nothing to gain from him pitching a standard outing. The Halos are just 3-14 in Lackey’s last 17 starts against the BoSox.
The Red Sox will send Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41 ERA) to start Game 1. He has earned this appearance by winning six of his last eight decisions with an ERA of 2.51 and 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There is reason to be wary if you’re a Boston fan as Lester is just 1-1 with a 7.78 ERA in four career starts versus the Angels.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants listed the Red Sox as $1.30 series favorites (risk $130 to win $100). Needless to say that Boston is a $1.10 road “chalk” in Game 1 with a total of eight.
Los Angeles has won four of the six games the played against the Red Sox in Orange County this season.
vegasinsider.com
AL Playoff Preview
By Sportsbook.com
Red Sox and Angels
The Red Sox and Angles will be the last teams to start up their divisional series, giving bettors at least an extra day to prepare for all the exciting wagering opportunities available. Right now, you can bet on each game, side and total, the series, including exact game props, plus numerous other player and team options at Sportsbook.com. Read on for a preview of the Boston-Los Angeles series, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to analyze the options.
As if the postseason isn’t enough motivation, the Los Angeles Angels have a score to settle. The Angels had the second best record in the American League and that accomplishment means nothings to odds-makers. The Halos are underdogs to Boston, since in the last five years; they have one win in 10 meetings with the Red Sox in the postseason. This can’t even be described as a rivalry since the outcomes have been so one-sided.
How will this year be any different than the last three times? Los Angeles feels better equipped offensively this time around. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in baseball this season. The 5.5 runs per game and boost in power (183 home runs) gives them the belief they are less likely to be stymied like in the past, since they have averaged 2.9 runs per game in last 10 postseason conflicts.
The Angels also believe their starting pitching is every bit as good as Boston’s, maybe better. John Lackey and Jered Weaver have experience and generally pitch well at home. When they travel to Boston, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders will try and make life tough on Red Sox hitters, as both are throwing extremely well of late.
In theory that all sound terrific, one problem, the Angels bullpen. Though Los Angeles has a higher save percentage than Boston (73 to 69 percent), nobody is going to take the Halos pen over the BoSox. Closer Brian Fuentes just recently went under four (3.93) for his ERA for the first time this season. The Angels are 11th in bullpen ERA compared to Boston’s second place finish in the American League. According to ESPN senior editor Dave Schoenfield, only three teams since 1969 have won the World Series with a closer who had ERA greater than three.
Boston has John Papelbon (1.85 ERA) as its closer and teams that have inferior closer, but better overall record are 26-28 in the division series. The lower scoring team is 32-22 in this round and the club with the better bullpen ERA wins 58.9 percent of the time (33-23) in divisional series.
Total the numbers and you can see why the Angels are underdogs in the ALDS. For Los Angeles to win they have to score runs and HOPE the bullpen can shutdown Boston bats. If the Red Sox starters once again limit L.A. in the run column, it will be like watching the TV Land; you’ve seen this show before.
Offensive – American League
Runs scored - Boston 3rd Angels 2nd
Home Runs - Boston 3rd Angels 8th
Slugging Pct. - Boston 2nd Angels 4th
Walks - Boston 2nd Angels 7th
On base Pct. - Boston 2nd Angels 3rd
Pitching & Defense
ERA - Boston 7th Angels 9th
Bullpen ERA - Boston 2nd Angels 11th
Strikeouts - Boston 2nd Angels 9th
Walks - Boston 6th Angels 5th
On base Pct. - Boston 8th Angels 10th
Putouts - Boston 8th Angels 5th
Errors - Boston 3rd Angels 4th
Key Numbers - Los Angeles won the season series 5-4, including 4-2 at the Big A. The tone of the series is likely to be set in the series opener. John Lackey is living off history as big game pitcher, having last won in his rookie season of 2002, pitching in the postseason. Lester allowed one run in 14 innings last October against the Halos and the lefty and teammates are 35-12 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Though several factors are in the Red Sox favor, they are desultory 3-15 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Red Sox -135, Angels +115
Thursday’s Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com STAFF
Wainwright vs. Kershaw
Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright closed out the regular season on a bit of a sour note. He had a chance to become the Major’s only 20-game winner, but fell short in a six-inning, three-run outing.
The Brewers won the game but Wainwright’s stuff was impressive as always. He sat down eight Milwaukee batters against just two walks.
And of course we can’t forget how instrumental the hurler was for the Cards during their postseason run in 2006. Wainwright didn’t allow a run in nine different playoff appearances as St. Louis’ rookie closer.
The Cards won the World Series that year in large part because Wainwright was able to close the door each time in the ninth inning.
Still, Cards supporters have noticed their team’s 1-3 record over the big righty’s last four starts.
Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers star prospect didn’t suffer any type of sophomore slump. He was the team’s most consistent starting arm throughout the season. That said, you’ve got to figure starting a 21-year-old kid in Game 2 of a best-of-five playoff series is giving Dodgers manager Joe Torre the heebie-jeebies.
Kershaw hasn’t won a game since mid-July and he’s only a few appearances removed from a stint on the 15-day DL. He’s got great stuff and he only surrendered two runs in 12 innings since coming back from injury.
If the lefty does struggle, Torre has some veteran long relief options in his bullpen.
Colorado (0-1) at Philadelphia (1-0)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-5 series with the Rockies when they send last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) to the Citizens Bank Park mound, while Colorado counters with Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16).
Philadelphia got a dominating complete-game performance from Cliff Lee in Game 1 on Wednesday, rolling to a 5-1 victory. Since getting swept in the 2007 NLDS by the Rockies, the Phillies have owned Colorado, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings overall – all decided by multiple runs – including six of the last seven in the City of Brotherly Love.
Colorado is still on positive runs of 5-2 as an underdog, 6-2 against the N.L. East and 11-5 on Thursday. However, the Rockies were swept in the 2007 World Series by the Red Sox, so they’ve now lost five straight playoff games. Jim Tracy’s troops are on additional slides of 5-11 on the road, 4-11 against teams with a winning record and 1-7 on the road against left-handed starters.
The Phillies won the N.L. East by six games over the Marlins and they’re on a plethora of positive streaks, including 33-13 at home, 8-1 against the N.L. West, 9-4 on Thursday, 7-1 in postseason action, 8-0 in home playoff games and 4-1 in the divisional playoffs.
After three straight poor starts to begin August, Cook went on the disabled list for more than a month with an arm injury. He returned in time to make two starts down the stretch, allowing a combined one run (on a home run) and eight hits with one walk in 13 innings, as Colorado defeated the Cardinals 2-1 and the Brewers 9-2, both at home. The Rockies are 11-5 in Cook’s last 16 starts overall, 6-2 in his last eight on the road and 5-1 in his last six on Thursday.
Cook went just 6-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 road starts in his career, and he’s 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Phillies (1-1, 3.75 ERA in two starts at Citizens Bank Park. He faced Philadelphia twice this season – at home in April, on the road in August – and gave up three runs in each start, pitching six innings at home and five innings in Philly.
Hamels struggled down the stretch, going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his final three starts (all Phillies losses), and he went just 3-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 12 starts after Aug. 1. Last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP went 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 home outings this season, but in his final two tune-up starts (both at Citizens Bank), he squandered nine runs in 9 2/3 innings, with the Phillies losing 8-2 to Houston and 4-3 to Florida.
Hamels made his 2009 debut in Colorado back on April 10 – his first career start in Coors Field – and got bombed, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss. His only other start against the Rockies came in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2007, and the San Diego native yielded three runs in 6 2/3 innings, losing 4-2.
Cook’s postseason experience is limited to a single World Series start in 2007 against Boston, and he took the 4-3 loss in the deciding Game 4 after allowing three runs on six hits in six innings. Meanwhile, Hamels was brilliant last year in the playoffs, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts.
The “over” is 4-2-1 in the Rockies’ last seven overall, 13-5-1 in Cook’s last 19 road starts, 6-2-1 in Cook’s last nine outings vs. the N.L. East and 5-1-1 in Cook’s last seven on Thursday. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Colorado’s last five on the highway, 7-3 in its last 10 playoff contests and 4-1 in its last five playoff roadies.
The Phillies are on “over” streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 as a favorite, but the “under” for the team is on stretches of 12-5-1 at home, 4-0 against the N.L. West, 5-1-1 in the postseason, 5-2-1 in home playoff games and 6-0 in the divisional series. Also, with Hamels on the mound, the under is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 12-3-1 on Thursday.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in eight of 12 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, but four of the last five meetings at Citizens Bank Park have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.
The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.
Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.
Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.
Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.
Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.
In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s
With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.
The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
Boston (95-67) at L.A. Angels (97-65)
The Angels and Red Sox finally return to the field for Game 1 of their American League Divisional Series, with veteran John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) taking the ball for the home team against Boston’s Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41).
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium by scores of 4-1 and 7-5. Lester got the best of Lackey in Games 1 and 4 last season.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
Both teams have been idle since finishing the regular season with victories on Sunday, the Red Sox defeating Cleveland 12-7 and the Angels topping the A’s 5-3. Boston followed up a six-game losing skid – matching its longest slide of the season – by sweeping the season-ending four-game home series from the Indians by the combined score of 32-15. Meanwhile, despite having nothing to play for, the Angels won seven of their final eight games, including sweeping the three-game series in Oakland.
The Red Sox, who won the A.L. wild-card by eight games over Texas, are on positive streaks of 9-4 as a favorite, 13-5 as a road favorite, 21-8 versus right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory and 39-17 on Thursday. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club is on surges of 13-5 overall, 7-2 on the road, 6-1 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-2 in divisional road games (4-0 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles won its third straight A.L. West title by going 51-28 from July 10 on, and Mike Scioscia’s squad went 49-32 in Anaheim this season (4-1 in the last four) and carries further positive trends of 22-6 as a home underdog, 8-3 after an off day, 46-21 after a victory, 35-17 on Thursday and 35-17 versus southpaw starters. However, the Halos have lost 10 of their last 11 playoff contests (nine of 10 to Boston) and six straight home playoff games, and they’re 1-5 in their last six as a playoff pup.
Lester’s final regular-season start was a 3-0 gem a week ago against Cleveland, as he allowed two hits and a walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. The southpaw from Washington was 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 21 starts after June 1, with the Red Sox going 16-5. In fact, with Lester on the bump, Boston is on several hot streaks, including 40-17 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 47-15 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-1 on Thursday.
Lester went 8-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 18 road starts this year, giving up three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings on the highway. He did not face the Angels this season, but last year in the playoffs, he guided Boston to wins in Game 1 (road) and Game 4 (home), allowing one unearned run on 10 hits over 14 innings with 11 strikeouts against three walks. However, in four regular-season meetings with Los Angeles from 2006-2008, Lester allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 19 2/3 innings (7.78 ERA).
Lackey missed the first six weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury and after a slow start, he went 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA in his final 19 starts, allowing two earned runs or less in 13 of those contests. However, the big right-hander limped to the finish line a bit, going 2-1 with 4.91 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. Lackey was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 13 home starts in 2009.
The Angels are 3-14 all-time when Lackey faces Boston (0-3 in the playoffs), with the Texas native going 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 regular-season starts versus the Red Sox. In one start this season in mid-September, Lackey was a tough-luck 4-1 loser at Fenway Park, giving up three runs (two earned) in 7 2/3 innings.
For his career, Lester is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in seven playoff appearances (five starts) covering 36 innings). Meanwhile, Lackey – who pitched the Angels to a Game 7 win in the 2002 World Series – is 2-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 postseason games (nine starts), but 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three playoff starts versus Boston.
Behind Lester, Boston is on “over” runs of 5-1 on the road (all as a favorite) and 4-1-1 against the A.L. West, but the under is 11-4-3 the last 18 times Lester has opened a series. As a team, the Red Sox sport “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 10-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 against right-handed starters, 16-5 in series openers and 5-1-2 in opening-round playoff road games.
The over is 7-3 in Lackey’s last 10 home outings and 4-1 in his last five as a home ‘dog, and four of L.A.’s last five home playoff games have topped the total. Otherwise, though, the Angels are on “under” stretches of 23-7-1 overall, 5-1 as a ‘dog, 8-1 in series openers, 6-1 at home versus lefty starters, 5-2-2 in divisional playoff contests, 13-5 against winning teams and 5-2 when facing A.L. East squads. Also, Lackey’s last four starts versus Boston have stayed low, as have Lester’s last three versus Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
MLB Playoffs
Thursday, October 8
World champ Phillies didn't have to use bullpen in easy 5-1 Game 1 win. Hamels is 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts. His first '09 start was April 10 here vs Rockies- he gave up seven runs in 3.2 IP. Cook is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts; he was 0-1, 4.91 in couple starts vs Phillies this season. Five of his last seven starts stayed under the total, as did eight of last ten Hamels starts.
Kershaw shut St Louis out for eight innings July 29, then only pitched 3.2 innings (97 PT) against Redbirds three weeks later (St Louis won 3-2 in both games). He is 0-1, 2.45 in his last five starts- under is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Wainwright has 2.57 RA in his last five starts, with last three going over the total- he gave up two runs in 15 IP vs LA this year.
Lackey is 1-1, 6.97 in his last four starts; he lost 4-1 in Fenway Sept 15, allowing three runs in 7.2 IP. Lester is 5-1, 2.52 in his last six starts- he was 1-0, 2.37 in three starts against them LY. Five of his last six road starts went over the total. Angels have recent history of folding against Red Sox in playoffs.
Not-What-It-Is
By SportsPic
The goal is to win in your house. However, home cookin' in post season has not done the job for Angles of late. Halos won eight of nine home playoff games in 2002, the year they won their only World Series but since then have lost nine of eleven postseason home games and are winless in five against the Red Sox at home since 2004 including Games 1 and 2 last season. John Lackey toeing the rubber in the opener will try to reverse the trend. A tough one at best, Halos are 0-6 last six home in post season with Lackey touching toe to rubber and 2-7 last nine post season games in front of the home crowd with the hurler. Halos 3-14 overall last seventeen vs Red Sox with the righty puts them in the danger zone. Consider Red Sox knowing Boston enters 6-1 last seven in ALDS action, 13-5 last 18 games as a road favorite and 6-1 last seven as a favorite of -110 to -150 with John Lester.