Tuesday's Best Mound Matchup
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA)
Hamels has a tough act to follow after Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt took the hill in the first two games of the series, but those two aces have been a factor in Hamels’ bounce-back season.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel says Hamels’ work ethic is much better since the two Roys joined the team and that Hamels has also added a cut fastball to his bag of tricks while bumping his velocity up a few clicks as well.
"He's wanted to put to rest that he was anything less than a superstar," Phillies closer Brad Lidge of the 2008 World Series MVP. "And he is a superstar. He worked his butt off this winter to come out this year to prove it, and that's what he's done. If he had anything left that wasn't mature, it's gone now. He's doesn't act anything close to 26."
Hamels came back with a strong regular season after a tough 2009 campaign. He only had 12 wins but set new career-bests in ERA (3.06) and strikeouts (211).
The lefty heads into Tuesday’s game with a 6-3 record and a 3.36 ERA in 11 playoff starts after chucking a five-hit shutout against the Reds on Oct. 10.
Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA)
Pitching for the San Francisco Giants, Matt Cain knows a lot about pitching in pressure situations. The Giants averaged only 4.03 runs of support for him this year, so he has thrown in some tight games.
He’s expecting another tight, pressure-packed game when he squares off against Hamels on Tuesday.
"You try to take advantage of taking control of the game when you may have guys on base and counts aren't in your favor or whatever," Cain told reporters. "You just try to figure out ways to slow the game down to get back to the pace that you want it to be at to try to get the momentum back on your side instead of the hitter's advantage."
So far that seems to be working for him and if the Giants give him a few runs to work with, he’s lethal. Cain is 11-0 with a 2.35 ERA when San Francisco manages at least three runs while he’s on the hill.
Cain picked up a no-decision in his only playoff start, going 6 2/3 and allowing just a single unearned run in a 5-4 loss to Atlanta in the division series. The 10-day layoff will be the longest he’s pitched with in his career.
Giants underdogs at home against Phillies
By: Stephen Nover
It’s a nice luxury for the San Francisco Giants to have Matt Cain going in Game 3 on Tuesday afternoon against Philadelphia in the National League Championship Series. The problem for the Giants is Cain has to face Cole Hamels and the team hasn’t been scoring nearly enough runs.
San Francisco is averaging 2.6 runs in six playoff games this season. The Giants have yet to score more than four runs in a postseason game.
Going back to their last 13 games, the Giants are averaging a meager three runs per contest.
Now the Giants draw Hamels for the 1 p.m. (PT) start with FOX televising. The left-hander had a strong second half allowing one earned run or none 11 times since July 11. Hamels proved himself in the clutch two years ago when he won MVP honors in both the NLCS and World Series.
MLB odds opened with the Phillies and Hamels 115 road favorites with the 'over/under' at 6 ½.
The Giants, though, are very much in this series having split the first two games in Philadelphia. They are 7-2 in Cain’s past nine home starts. They also have beaten Philadelphia four of the past five times in San Francisco.
San Francisco has proven resilient all season, going 24-9 the past 33 times following a loss.
Until scoring six runs in their Game 2 victory, the Phillies hadn’t been displaying much offense either during the postseason. Philadelphia scored 16 runs in its first five playoff contests, seven of which came in a game when the Reds committed four errors, batting just .212 during this span.
Cain is 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA. He was 8-4 at AT&T Park this season with a 2.93 ERA in 16 home starts. The 26-year-old right-hander was 4-4 in day contests with a 3.00 ERA.
Outfielder Cody Ross is one of the few Giants hitting smacking three home runs during the first two games of this series. All three homers, though, have been solo.
The Giants may not have infielder Juan Uribe. He was scratched from Game 2 due to a wrist contusion.
Hamels was sharp in his lone playoff start this season throwing a complete-game, five-hit shutout against the Reds beating Johnny Cueto, 2-0, as a 130 road favorite. Hamels struck out nine and didn’t walk a batter.
On the season, Hamels is 12-11 with a 3.06 ERA. He finished sixth in the National League in strikeouts with 211. Hamels was 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA in road games.
Hamels, though, struggled in two starts versus the Giants going 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA giving up 16 hits in 11 innings. Hamels is 5-3 in day contests with a 3.34 ERA.
Philadelphia has won 22 of its last 31 playoff games. The Phillies are 22-5 in their last 27 road contests. They have won in six of Hamels’ past eight road outings.
The Phillies got a nice lift in Game 2 from shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who went 2-for-3 with four runs batted in. Rollins was in a 1-for-15 postseason slump until that performance.
The Phillies are 12-4-2 to the ‘over’ in their last 18 postseason games. The ‘under,’ though, has cashed in 21 of Hamels’ past 28 starts.
The ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in San Francisco’s past 13 games. The ‘under’ has cashed in 13 of San Francisco’s last 17 games at AT&T Park. The ‘over,’ however, has cashed in eight of Cain’s last 11 starts and is 4-1-1 the last six times the two teams have met.
Ted Barrett is slated to be the home plate umpire. The home team is 42-18 the past 60 times Barrett has been behind the plate.
The forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 60s and the wind blowing out to right field at seven mph.
Yankees and Rangers continue ALCS betting drama
By: Michael Robinson
New York Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett will try to redeem himself from an awful regular season when his team hosts the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night.
This is Game 4 of the ALCS with the classic pitching duel between Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte still pending from Monday night. Lee and the Rangers were slight MLB money line favorites for Game 3.
The Yankees won the opener 6-5 after trailing 5-1 in the eighth inning. Texas rebounded on Saturday 7-2 behind starter Colby Lewis.
Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) is expected to get the Tuesday start, win or lose on Monday. The alternative is to go with CC Sabathia on three-days rest, then continue with Phil Hughes and Pettitte on short rest in Games 5 and 6. Sabathia and Hughes lasted four innings each in the first two games in Texas (13.50 combined ERA).
The 33-year-old Burnett was on the ALDS roster against Minnesota, but didn’t pitch. His last appearance was on Oct. 2 at Boston, well over two weeks ago. He did pitch a simulated game last Wednesday, but rust is a big factor.
The right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.61 ERA since August 1, with the Yankees 2-10 in those starts. His splits show a lower ERA at home this year (4.59) than away (5.76) and the ‘under’ is 20-8-2 in his last 30 starts at Yankee Stadium.
Burnett is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts versus Texas this year. He threw seven scoreless innings in the home one in April. He got bombed in his two road playoff starts last year (13.50 ERA), but was great in three at home (1.86 ERA).
This is a risky start for the Yankees. Manager Joe Girardi is sure to feel the fans’ wrath if Burnett pitches poorly.
Texas’ Tommy Hunter will oppose Burnett. He was 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA in 22 regular season starts. His first start this year was delayed to June 5 because of an oblique injury.
The 24-year-old righty last pitched Game 4 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay. He lasted just four innings and 73 pitches, allowing three runs (two earned). The Rays won 5-2 to even up the series 2-2.
It was the first home loss for Hunter, who was 7-0 (3.06 ERA) during the regular season. He was 6-4 with a 4.48 ERA away. He warmed up this past Saturday during Game 2 against New York, but he may also be rusty with over a week rest.
Hunter has one start versus New York this year, two earned runs over five innings in a 7-6 home win on Sept. 11. He’s never pitched in Yankee Stadium, which is very intimidating for young pitchers, especially in the playoffs.
New York is 53-29 at home this year, including a 6-1 win over Minnesota in the ALDS. New York is 8-1 in its last nine home playoff games. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in those contests.
Texas was just 39-42 away during the regular season, but won all three road games in the ALDS at Tampa Bay.
Umpire Angel Hernandez will call balls and strikes. The ‘under’ is 15-4-2 in his 21 games behind home plate.
The teams have split 10 meetings this year, with the Yankees going 3-0 at home back in April. Texas is 5-2 in its home contests.
First pitch on Tuesday is 5 p.m. (PT). Weather should begin in the lower 50s.
MLB Playoffs
Tuesday, October 19
Giants are 4-4 vs Phillies this year, holding Phils to three or less runs in all four wins; Philly scored 6+ runs in their wins. Hamels is 6-1, 1.53 in his last eight starts; he was 0-1, 7.36 in two starts against Giants, giving up nine runs in 11 IP. Cain is 4-1, 2.66 in his last six starts; he lost 8-2 at Philly Aug 18, giving up five runs in six IP. Ball generally carries better in day games out west than in night games; this is 1:15 first pitch.
Burnett hasn't pitched since October 2; he failed to finish fifth inning in four of last five starts (0-3, 6.59 in last six starts). He allowed five runs in 18 IP vs Texas this year, beating Rangers 7-3 April 17 (1-0, 3.00 in three starts overall vs Texas). Under is 11-6 in his last 17 starts. Hunter is 1-3, 4.45 in his last six starts; he gave up two runs in five IP against Bronx September 11. Home team is 1-7 in Texas games this postseason (Rangers 4-0 on road).
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
PHILLIES: (-114, O/U 6.5) Philadelphia won when the absolutely had to, as Roy Oswalt pitched them to a nice win in Game 2 to even the NLCS at 1-1. The prohibitive favorite, it appears that Philadelphia has a competitive series on their hand. The Phillies go out on the road for the next few games of this series, and they are 46-36 SU this year on the road. Overall, the Phillies are +12.08 and +2.83 units respectively this season. Lefty Cole Hamels will make the road start today, as he is 13-11 SU with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.15 this year. The Phillies are 16-2 in their last 18 playoff games as a favorite. Philadelphia is 22-5 in their last 27 road games. The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Phillies are 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Hamels' last 7 starts as a favorite. The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Phillies are 11-1 last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 6-0 last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 2
GIANTS: San Francisco finally didn't play an exciting game, as they weren't involved in a 1 run game for the first time this postseason. San Francisco played quite slopping in a 1-6 loss in Philadelphia to tie up the NLCS at 1-1. The Giants are excited to be back at home for the NLCS, and San Francisco fans have been patient for a postseason series just like this. San Francisco is 50-33 SU this year at home, and have an opportunity to sieze the NLCS at home over the next few games. San Francisco is +16.79 and -2.74 units both SU and on the RL this season. Pitcher Matt Cain will make the home start, as he is 13-11 with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.09 this year. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. San Francisco is 24-9 in their last 33 games following a loss. The Giants are 21-8 in their last 29 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Giants are 6-0 in Cain's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. San Francisco is 6-1 in Cain's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Giants are 13-4 in Cain's last 17 starts against the National League East.
Giants are 5-0 last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 9-0 last 9 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - 3B Juan Uribe (wrist) is questionable.
Projected Score: 4 (SIDE of the Day)
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
RANGERS: Texas won't be able to start Cliff Lee tonight, but that doesn't change the fact that this team believes they are a team of destiny. In reality, who can argue with them? The Rangers have accomplished many franchise firsts this year, and with the guidance of Coach Washington and Nolan Ryan anything is possible. Texas is 94-75 SU this season, including 42-42 SU on the road this year. The Rangers are -0.11 and -18.58 units both both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Right hander Tommy Hunter will make the road start tonight, as he is 13-5 with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.25 this season. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record. Texas is 9-3 in their last 12 games against the American League East. The Rangers are 23-9 in Hunter's last 32 starts on grass. Texas is 16-7 in Hunter's last 23 starts overall. The Rangers are 3-7 in Hunter's last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Rangers are 11-4 last 15 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 playoff road games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 4
YANKEES: There is little not to like about postseason baseball in New York. Yankees fans love it, and so do many within the MLB league offices. New York is hosting Game 4 of the ALCS tonight, in a crucial game that can get one team a step closer to the World Series. New York is 53-29 SU at home this year, easily one of the most formidable home teams in baseball. The Yankees are -1.77 and +12.96 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. Pitcher A.J. Burnett will make the home start tonight, and everyone associated with New York is nervous. Burnett is a talented pitcher, but he's as erratic as they come. Burnett is 10-15 SU this season, with an ERA of 5.26 and a WHIP of 1.51 overall. The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. New York is 6-2 in their last 8 League Championship home games. The Yankees are 61-22 in their last 83 home games against a right-handed starter. New York is 1-4 in their last 5 games against the American League West. The Yankees are 5-17 in Burnett's last 22 starts on grass. New York is 0-6 in Burnett's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Yankees are 0-11 in Burnett's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 8-1 last 9 playoff home games.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 6
Game 3, Phillies at Giants
By Chris David
NLCS: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Game 3 The National League Championship Series heads to the West Coast for the first of three games from San Francisco’s AT&T Park. The Giants captured Game 1 with a 4-3 victory on Saturday, but the Phillies bounced back on Sunday in Game 2 with a 6-1 win behind Roy Oswalt’s dominating performance. After 20 games played in this postseason, the road team has won 70 percent (14-6) of the time and perhaps that’s why the oddsmakers made the Phillies short favorites (-120) over the Giants (+110) in Game 3.
Even though San Francisco is listed as the ‘dog, VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers believes the NL West champion has an advantage at home. He said, “With the series shifting out west, Matt Cain has been a lot stronger pitching at AT&T Park as opposed to the highway. The problem for Cain is he's facing a postseason veteran in Cole Hamels, who was fantastic in the shutout victory to close out the Reds in the last round.”
Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA) hasn’t pitched since Game 2 of the NLDS against the Braves, which the Giants lost 5-4 in 11 innings. The righthander looked sharp, giving up seven hits in 6 2/3 innings while striking out six. San Francisco has watched him go 8-4 with a 2.75 ERA at AT&T Park in 17 starts (11-6). During the daytime, he’s gone 4-4 with a 3.00 ERA. The only issue that could concern gamblers with Cain is his resume against the Phillies. In five career starts, the right hander is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in five starts. The ‘over’ went 3-2 in those battles but four of them had at least eight or more.
“Game 3 is a toss-up since Cain can no doubt deliver a win. The only question is if the Giants can manufacture runs as oppose to just relying on the homer. San Francisco is not a bad look but can the offense solve Hamels? If so, then the Giants will be a tough out on Tuesday”, added Rogers.
If there is a gamer on Philadelphia’s staff, it’s Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA). As Rogers mentioned, the lefthander dominated Cincinnati in the NLDS clincher with a complete game shutout. He struck out nine and allowed just five hits. And most would argue that the Reds’ offense is a lot more potent than the Giants attack, which has been struggling mightily lately.
Also, Hamels had a rough season but his current form looks very similar to his postseason efforts from two years ago. For those of you forgetting, the lefty went 4-0 in five starts and complied a miniscule 1.80 ERA. Hamels did face the Giants twice this season and the Phillies came out with a split in those appearances but San Francisco tagged him for 16 hits and nine runs over 11 innings.
Total bettors watched a combined seven runs scored in each of the first two games, which helped the ‘over’ go 1-0-1, perhaps 2-0 at some outfits if you got in early on the 6 ½-runs. Tonight, the ‘over/under’ is hovering at 6 ½ (under -120).
On the season, the Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 44-33-6 from AT&T Park, which includes a 1-1 mark in the postseason. Even though the Game 2 loss against Atlanta saw three late runs force extra innings and then an eventual ‘over’ ticket. Can both clubs get to three runs a piece tonight?
Most could make a case for Philadelphia to eclipse the short number since it definitely has more pop in its lineup, but the numbers tell the story with San Francisco. Including the last homestand of the season, the Giants haven’t put up more than four runs on the scoreboard and they only managed to hit that plateau five times over the 12-game stretch. In case you’re wondering, the ‘under’ went 8-3-1 during that stretch.
Those gamblers still undecided on the game can take their chances with some nice proposition wagers from Sportsbook.com. Here are a couple below that stood out, especially the exact run wager, which looks tempting with the Giants to win Game 3 by 1 run (+250), since all four of their postseason wins have come by just one so far.
Exact Runs Prop:
Giants Win By 1 Run +250
Giants Win By 2 Runs +375
Giants Win By 3 Runs +700
Giants Win By 4 Runs +1000
Giants Win By 5 Runs +1500
Giants Win By 6 Runs +1800
Giants Win By 7 or More Runs +1200
Phillies Win By 1 Run +240
Phillies Win By 2 Runs +375
Phillies Win By 3 Runs +700
Phillies Win By 4 Runs +1000
Phillies Win By 5 Runs +1500
Phillies Win By 6 Runs +1800
Phillies Win By 7 or More Runs +1200
First Home Run of Game will be:
2 Run Home Run +400
3 Run Home Run +1000
Grand Slam +4000
No Home Run in the Game +140
Solo Home Run even
Team to Score First and Game Result:
Giants Score First/Phillies Win Game +250
Giants Score First and Win Game +160
Phillies Score First/Giants Win Game +300
Phillies Score First and Win Game +220
Game 4 of the NLCS is set for Wednesday and Game 5 for Thursday.
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