MLB News and Notes Tuesday 10/6

Central Supremacy
By Kevin Rogers

For the third straight season, one spot in the postseason is undetermined after 162 games. It's deja-vu all over again in the AL Central, as the Twins go for the division title in game 163. However, the venue changes from last season, as well as the opponent, hosting the Tigers.

The Twins and White Sox were all knotted up at the end of the 2008 regular season, with the play-in game taking place on the South Side of Chicago. The Sox squeezed by the Twins, 1-0, thanks to a Jim Thome solo homer off Minnesota righty Nick Blackburn in the seventh inning. Chicago went on to lose to the eventual AL-champion Rays in four games in the ALDS.

Minnesota has been on a massive charge to catch Detroit, as the Twins have won 16 of their past 20, doing it all without clean-up hitter Justin Morneau. The offense hasn't missed a beat with their All-Star first baseman hurt, scoring six runs or more in 12 games. The Twins didn't pick up any ground in the crucial four-game set at Detroit last week, splitting the series. However, Minnesota took care of its business by sweeping Kansas City over the weekend, in what was thought to be the final home games at the Metrodome.

That has changed, at least for one day, as Minnesota goes for its 16th win in its last 22 games at the Homerdome. In fact, the Twins received this game at home after a vote by general managers in the winter to give the team with the better head-to-head record home-field advantage (Twins lost a coin flip to the White Sox last season despite owning a better head-to-head mark against Chicago).

The Twins won the season series, 11-7, including a 7-2 mark at home. Betting the total was not a solid proposition, as the 'over' went 8-7-3, but the 'under' hit in five of nine games at the Metrodome (including one push).

The Tigers come into Minneapolis stumbling, winning 11 of their last 26 games. To put it in proper perspective, Jim Leyland's club was 75-61 on September 6, after a three-game sweep of the Rays in St. Pete. That same day, the Twins fell at Cleveland, dropping Minnesota's record to 68-68, and seven games back of the Tigers in the Central. The Detroit offense has shut down, scoring two runs or less nine times in this stretch.

Detroit will put all its eggs into the basket of 21-year old Rick Porcello to get the Tigers into the postseason. Porcello (14-9, 4.04 ERA) started the season on fire, going 8-4 his first 12 decisions. However, the right-hander went 6-5 since late June, while compiling just five quality starts his last 17 trips to the hill. Don't expect a high pitch count out of Porcello, who tossed at least 100 pitches only four times in 30 starts.

One of the four outings Porcello threw over 100 pitches came his last time out, at home against Minnesota. Porcello scattered seven hits and one earned run in 6.1 innings of work last Tuesday, but the Tigers fell in extra-innings, 3-2. Detroit finished 1-3 in Porcello's four outings against Minnesota, but three of those starts were quality ones.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they needed their top two hurlers to pitch against the White Sox over the weekend, as Edwin Jackson lost Friday, but 19-game winner Justin Verlander saved Detroit's season with a victory on Sunday.

On the flip side, the Twins send their top pitcher, Scott Baker to the mound Tuesday. Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) started the season in opposite fashion of Porcello. The Minnesota righty went 2-6 through the first two months, allowing 39 ER in 52.2 IP (an ERA of 6.72). Since June, Baker has been electric, compiling a 13-3 mark, while giving up 57 ER in 141 IP (an ERA of 3.63).

Facing Detroit hasn't been the easiest task for Baker this season, despite the Twins splitting his four starts against the Tigers. Baker has not put together a quality start against Detroit, while allowing 15 ER in 20 IP. Baker did beat the Tigers at Comerica Park last Thursday, 8-3, in essence keeping Minnesota's season alive.

VI capper Bruce Marshall says Ron Gardenhire will likely use a pitcher by committee, in order not to overextend Baker, "I think Gardenhire goes into this game hoping to get five, maybe six innings at the most from Baker, who did pitch a solid five-plus innings last Tuesday in the first game of the doubleheader at Detroit. Gardy has a bit more depth and flexibility with his bullpen, especially with Francisco Liriano adding another portsider to the relievers mix." Marshall feels that Minnesota's bullpen depth can carry the Twins in the final innings, "Along with Ron Mahay, Jose Mijares, and (if need be) Brian Duensing, Gardy has plenty of situational lefties to use, while Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, and the closer Joe Nathan give him a lot of options from the right side out of the pen, too."

Since 1969 and the expansion of the playoff format, this will be the eighth play-in game. You already know what happened with the Twins last season against the White Sox, but many people will remember the Rockies' epic 9-8 victory in 13 innings over the Padres back in 2007. Prior to that contest, the last four play-in games were decided by at least two runs (Mets shut out the Reds, 5-0 in 1999, Cubs downed the Giants, 5-3 in 1998, Mariners destroyed the Angels, 9-1 in 1995, and the Astros beat the Dodgers, 7-1 in 1980). The first play-in game involved the famous Bucky Dent home run over the Green Monster to carry the Yankees past the Red Sox, 5-4, while lifting the Bombers to another title.

Most books have the Twins listed as a $1.60 home favorite, with the total set at 8 ½.

vegasinsider.com

Detroit (86-76) at Minnesota (86-76)

The final piece of baseball’s postseason puzzle will fall into place today at the Metrodome as the Twins host the Tigers in a one-game playoff with the winner claiming the A.L. Central title. Minnesota will hand the ball to Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA), while Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04).

The Tigers had a seven-game lead on Minnesota back on Sept. 6 when it scored four runs in the top of the ninth to rally past the Rays 5-3 in Tampa. After that victory – which capped a six-game winning streak – Detroit went on to lose 15 of its last 26 games, going 5-7 on the road. However, facing a must-win situation Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on 5-3 to force this one-game playoff.

The Twins caught Detroit by closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak, starting with Thursday’s 8-3 victory in Motown, followed by a three-game home sweep of the Royals. In addition to the current winning streak Minnesota won 16 of its final 20 games, including eight of its last nine at the Metrodome. During the 16-4 season-ending surge, the Twins went 4-3 against Detroit.

These squads split a four-game, three-day series in Detroit last week, and they’ve split the last 10 meetings, all since the beginning of August. The Twins ended up taking the season series 11-7, going 7-2 at home. Furthermore, going back more than 10 years, Minnesota is 61-28 against the Tigers at the Metrodome.

Detroit enters this contest in slumps of 1-5 against right-handed starters and 27-58 as a road underdog, but it is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a pup. Minnesota, in addition to its 16-4 overall run, is on hot streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 71-32 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory, 21-7 against the A.L. Central, 20-7 on Tuesday and 28-11 after an off day. On the downside, the Twins have dropped 13 of their last 16 playoff games, including seven straight postseason contests in the Metrodome.

Porcello faced the Twins on Tuesday and held them to one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings getting a no-decision in Detroit’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss. In four starts against the Twins this year, the 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. He went 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the Metrodome this season, pitching just 10 innings.

Porcello is 4-1 with two no-decisions since Aug. 28, but the Tigers have alternated wins and losses in his last six outings. He’s 6-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts, with the Tigers going 7-8, including 1-4 in the last five on the highway.

With the Twins staring at elimination, Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed one run (unearned) on five hits over five innings of an 8-3 road win. Baker also faced the Tigers at home on Sept. 20 and yielded four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. For his career, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts versus Detroit covering 95 2/3 innings, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts (20 innings) this season. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 home efforts this year.

With Baker on the mound, Minnesota is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home (all as a favorite), 10-2 against A.L. Central foes, 20-7 as a favorite and 5-1 on Tuesday.

With Porcello pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 9-3 against A.L. Central rivals and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, and all four of his starts versus Minnesota this year stayed low. However, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five on Tuesday. Behind Baker, the Twins are on “under” streaks of 5-2-2 overall and 3-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), but the over is 17-6-1 in his last 24 starts against divisional foes, including 6-1 in his last seven versus Detroit.

As a team, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 3-1-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2-1 after a victory, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4-2 on Tuesday. The Twins carry “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall (all against A.L. Central foes), 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-2 on Tuesday. However, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five Tigers-Twins clashes in Minnesota.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

DETROIT (86 - 76) at MINNESOTA (86 - 76)
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. SCOTT BAKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 160-164 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-46 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 66-78 (-29.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 20-34 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 105-122 (-37.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 174-151 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 101-61 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday this season.
MINNESOTA is 26-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 45-27 (+14.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 104-65 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 106-70 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 58-44 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 47-25 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 38-30 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 11-7 (+3.5 Units) against DETROIT this season
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
PORCELLO is 1-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.414.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

SCOTT BAKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
BAKER is 5-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.202.
His team's record is 8-8 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-6. (+3.7 units)

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
PORCELLO: DET 30-59 as road underdog
BAKER: MIN 23-7 after scoring 8+ runs

DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

AL Tiebreaker
By AllStar.com

For the second consecutive year, it’s game No. 163 for the Twins to determine the division crown and an AL Division Series date either Wednesday or Thursday against the New York Yankees.

Minnesota is sprinting through the finish line, full of hope and confidence and believing that the absolute last thing the Tigers feel like doing right now is packing their ear plugs for a one-game play-in at the Metrodome that promises to be even louder and wilder than Sunday, when 55,155 fans screamed, stomped and waved their white hankies in what could have been the final game at the Metrodome.

Detroit had a three-game lead with four to go last Thursday. They had just beaten the Twins two of three and hosted the series finale at Comerica to close out the Twins for 2009.

One big problem for Detroit it wasn’t over. Minnesota won that day, and then won every day since, forcing the Tigers to haul Verlander out Sunday to extend the season. Momentum is overrated in baseball and obviously anything can happen in a one-game playoff, but the Twins weren’t afraid to admit they are enjoying how this turned out.

The team that left them for dead last week has to board a flight for the Upper Midwest; Detroit’s mistake for not driving a stake through the Twins’ collective heart when they had the chance.

The Twins are rightfully excited about the historic comeback they could finish off on Tuesday, tossing around terms like “poise” and “perseverance.” Fair enough, they did erase a seven-game September deficit and then climbed out of a three-game hole in the final four days.

Still, whether this is about what Minnesota did or Detroit didn’t (blowing the first two games of the series to the White Sox) is open to debate. And the Twins may be a team of all-time resilience, but there’s no denying they got a gift from the scheduling gods – a must-win weekend of games against the hapless Royals.

Minnesota won 16 of its last 20 but dropped three of four a week ago to the Tigers. So who knows what to make of all this. It’s par for the course in a divisional race of epic mediocrity.

The Twins won’t apologize for how they got here or what the future may hold. A year ago they fell apart down the stretch, let the White Sox catch them and then lost the 163rd game in front of a U.S. Cellular Field “blackout” crowd.

Say what you will about the overall level play in the AL Central, but it routinely gives us the most hotly contested division race in all of Major League Baseball.

Last year it was the White Sox and Twins punching it out for a 163rd game. This year, it’s the Tigers and Twins. Here is everything you need to know:

Porcello against Twins: Tigers will send rookie phenom Rick Porcello to the mound for the Tigers’ most important game of the season. It’s been an up-and-down rookie year for Porcello, who was terrible in April, fantastic in May, terrible again in June and July, and then very solid in 12 starts during August and September. Overall for the season, Porcello is 14-9 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 81 Ks, and 50 BBs over 30 starts and 165 innings. Detroit has done a very good job of not wearing Porcello down in his first big league season, part of the reason why he came down the stretch with a strong 5-2 record and an ERA right around 3.20 during the season’s final two months.

Porcello has pitched pretty well overall against Minnesota. He is only 1-2 in four starts, but his ERA against the Twins is a very solid 3.09. The peripheral numbers, however, aren’t quite as good (1.41 WHIP, .299 BAA) and Porcello did not fare well in his two starts in the Metrodome: 0-2, 6.30 ERA. The Twins that have given Porcello the most trouble are Jason Kubel (8-11) and Delmon Young (4-9). Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau both hit .250 or worse against Porcello, but both have homered. Joe Mauer went only 1-9 against Porcello this season. The Twins did not steal a base off Porcello this year.

Baker against Tigers: Scott Baker started off the season terribly. In three April starts, Baker had an ERA of 9.82 and went 0-3. Over the next five months, Baker alternated between 4.00 and 3.00 ERAs and finished the season with decent numbers: 15-9, 4.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. Baker’s Achilles’ heel is the long ball: he gave up 27 on the year.

Unfortunately for Twins fans, Detroit is one of the teams that rocked Baker the hardest this year. In four starts against the Tigers, Baker went 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70. On a positive note though, he only gave up two home runs to the Tigers in 20 innings of work. Baker was pretty solid at home, with his 4.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .240 BAA Baker gave up fewer home runs at the dome. It looks like Baker was the victim of some bad luck in his home park. The Tigers hitters that hit Baker the hardest this year were: Miguel Cabrera (4-11, HR); Magglio Ordonez (6-11); Marcus Thames (3-8, HR). Baker did do a nice job of keeping Curtis Granderson off the base paths (1-11) and holding Brandon Inge in check (1-8).

Betting Trends:

The Tigers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games
The Tigers are 1-4 in Porcello’s last 5 road starts
The Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games
The Twins are 6-1 in Baker’s last 7 home starts
The OVER is 6-1 in Baker’s last 7 starts against the Tigers

MLB Tiebreaker Preview Twins vs. Tigers
By: Freddy Willis

The Twins finally caught up to the Tigers on Saturday, and they did not back off on Sunday winning while the Tigers won with Justin Verlander on the hill. Now it comes down to a tie breaker on Tuesday night between these two teams. The Twins won 11 of the 18 match ups this season and were 7-2 in Minnesota where they will be on Tuesday. The Twins were 48-33 at home this year while the Tigers were 35-46 on the road. Clear advantage to the Twins on those terms and the sports betting line is confirming that with the Twins at -163.

Pitching Match Up (Rick Porcello vs. Scott Baker) Rick Porcello has not been the same pitcher on the road that he has been at home. It's not a drastic difference with a 3.87 home ERA and an ERA of 4.20 on the road, but he has pitched significantly worse at Minnesota than he has at home against the Twins. In two road starts he is 0-3 giving up 7 ER in 10 IP while allowing 15 hits and 3 BB's. Twins collectively own a .290 average against Porcello led by Jason Kubel who is 8-11 in his career. Kubel was a major reason why the Twins won on Sunday as he hit two home runs, both three run home runs and went 3-4 with 6 RBI's! Porcello who is 6-6 on the road and the team was 7-8 in his road starts. Pitching on the turf was not good for Ricky as he had a 6.60 ERA in 3 starts this year on turf. It will be Porcello's most challenging spot as a rookie in the biggest game of his life facing a Twins team that is 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. right handed starter.

Scott Baker will go for the Twins on Tuesday for the 5th time this year. The 28 year old veteran will go up against the Tigers who he has a 6.75 ERA. I do not believe that the Twins deserve to be at -163, but that's the odds we roll with on Tuesday. Baker who is 6-5 at home with a 4.55 ERA pitches better on the road despite his team being 10-6 in his home starts. He will have to duplicate what he did against the Tigers in his last outings which was go 5 innings and give up 0 ER on 5 hits and 3 BB's. Tigers collectively have a .289 average led by Magglio Ordonez who is 18-39 against the RHP. Baker has identical numbers to what Porcello has on the road against the Twins as he has at home. He's gone 10.2 IP giving up 9 ER on 15 hits.

You might think there is an advantage in the bullpen? However, looking at the match up both bullpens are pitching strong with the Twins having a 2.34 ERA in their last 10 and the Tigers having a 3.58 ERA in their last 10 games. This game is going to come down to one player stepping up and coming up with a big hit. I think both of these pitchers will come out like they did last week, and will pitch quality innings in the biggest game of the year for them. Will the Twins finally over come the Tigers for the division or will the Tigers jump on the plane again to face the New York Yankees?

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins

The Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at The Metrodome in a one-game playoff to decide the AL Central.

Righthander Rick Porcello will take the mound for the Tigers to start this game. Porcello is 14-9 this season with a 4.04 ERA.

Meanwhile, it'll be Scott Baker who starts for the Twins. Righthander Baker is 15-9 with a 4.36 ERA so far this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Twins listed as -170 moneyline favorites versus the Tigers, while the game's total is sitting at 8½.

Ryan Raburn went 3-for-4 with two homers and three runs batted in to lead the Tigers over the White Sox 5-3 on Sunday.

Detroit cashed as -190 home favorites, while the game played OVER the 7.5-run total set by oddsmakers.

Jason Kubel was 3-for-4 with two dingers and six runs batted in to lead the Twins over the Royals 13-4 on Sunday.

Minnesota won as -220 home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 9.5-run total set by sportsbooks.

Team records:
Detroit: 86-76 SU
Minnesota: 86-76 SU

Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
After playing Chi White Sox are 5-5
After a win are 5-5

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
After playing Kansas City are 8-2
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Tips and Trends

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Tigers: Hoping to win their first division title since 1987, the Tigers are turning to 20-year-old rookie Rick Porcello in their one-game playoff versus the Twins. The Tigers led Minnesota by seven games on Sept. 6. But since then Detroit has gone 11-15. The Tigers have lost seven of their last 11 games at the Metrodome. The teams have played 18 times this season with Minnesota winning 11 times. There have been more than eight runs scored in 15 of the 18 games. Porcello (14-9, 4.04 ERA) has faced the Twins twice in the last 2 ½ weeks. He’s been tagged for nine runs (seven earned) in 10 innings, while giving up 15 hits and two homers. Detroit has lost in four of Porcello’s past five starts. The Tigers are 27-58 the past 85 times they’ve been a road underdog, but have won five of their last seven away games.

The Under is 9-3 in Rick Porcello’s last 12 American League Central Division starts.
The Under has cashed the past 4 times Porcello has faced the Twins.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Twins (-$1.60, O/U 8): The Twins have won four in a row and 16 of their last 20 games to force this one-game playoff for the division title. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home contests. Right-hander Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) is slated to start. He’s faced Detroit four times this season. The Tigers have banged him for 15 runs on 29 hits in 20 innings. Magglio Ordonez is batting .462 against Baker and Carlos Guillen is hitting .407 versus Baker. Curtis Granderson has four homers in 45 at-bats against Baker. The over has cashed in six of Baker’s past seven starts against the Tigers. Baker may have fatigue issues, having worked a career-high 194 innings. He is 5-4 with a 5.28 ERA in day games this season. The Twins have won in six of Baker’s last seven home games. However, Minnesota has lost in its last seven home playoff games.

The Twins are 20-7 the past 27 times Scott Baker has been favored.
The Over is 12-5-1 the last 18 times Baker has faced a team with a winning mark.

Key Injuries - Justin Morneau (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)